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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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Transistor Man

Nuclear hydrogen generation:

Great to see some projects going ahead. The UK is looking much more dynamic with regard to these activities, you couldn’t get anywhere with these energy projects 10 years ago. But it has to be a long term vision. 20+ years away.

What  EDF are doing in that Heysham trial, using straight-electrolysis is very inefficient/ expensive method to make hydrogen using a nuclear reactor. Good learning experience perhaps, but I can’t see why you’d practically do it. Unless you had a huge nuclear fleet.

Ideally, You need to make use of the 67% of the nuclear power that’s going into the sea. ( in this case an AGR so maybe 59%)

That’s why a high temperature reactor was always proposed for these nuclear cogeneration plants, so you could make use of the high-grade heat. That Opens up the possibility of high-temperature electrolysis, and process heat supply. 

Still, good to see things happening. 

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eta-carinae
2 hours ago, AWW said:

US NFP +4.8m vs 3m forecast!

Is this more or less reliable than the figure from yesterday that was revised from 3 million job losses to 3 million job gains?

Doesn't seem to matter. Stocks to the moon.

So when do interest rates rise and stimulus be unwound? Because obviously, with the economic booming it would be reckless to pile money printing, bond purchasing and other forms of QE on top, right?

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I'm not sure which revision you mean, but any figure published yesterday would have been the market's expectation for today's number.

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5 hours ago, AWW said:

US NFP +4.8m vs 3m forecast!

Drivel. The figures are meaningless nonsense - including jobs that were furloughed as 'new' jobs when the people returned to work. There other manipulations as well.

Jobs reports in the US have been a farce for decades now.

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sancho panza
4 hours ago, Errol said:

Drivel. The figures are meaningless nonsense - including jobs that were furloughed as 'new' jobs when the people returned to work. There other manipulations as well.

Jobs reports in the US have been a farce for decades now.

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/02/never-before-have-i-seen-so-much-fake-unemployment-jobs-data-by-the-bureau-of-labor-statistics-while-labor-department-nails-it/

Never Before Have I Seen So Much Fake Unemployment & Jobs Data by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Labor Department Nails It

by Wolf Richter • Jul 2, 2020 • 62 Comments

Labor Department today: People on state & federal unemployment insurance jumped to 31.5 million, worst ever.

Bureau of Labor Statistics today: 4.8 million jobs created, unemployment dropped by 3.2 million.

BLS under-reported unemployment by 13.7 million, based on data from the Labor Department. What’s happening is infuriating. Read and cringe.

US-unemployment-claims-2020-07-02-contin

US-employment-nonfarm-2020-06-unemployed

3 hours ago, AWW said:

I agree, but they still drive sentiment.

Yeah they do.Very few people look under the bonnet of the UB/inflation/GDP figures.

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sancho panza

https://wolfstreet.com/2020/07/01/waiting-for-pent-up-demand-uk-house-prices-in-june-fall-for-first-time-since-2012-mortgage-approvals-slump-to-record-low-despite-partial-reopening/

UK-mortgage-approvals-2020-06-30.png

Approvals of mortgages to purchase a home tumbled to 9,300 in May, their lowest level on record, from an already unprecedented low of 15,851 in April. They were about 60% below the low point during the Financial Crisis and were down 87% from February

Economists polled by Reuters had expected mortgage approvals to rise to 25,000 in May as interested buyers flooded back into the market. But that didn’t happen

UK-home-sales-2020-06-30-.png

 

via DDMB

image.png.d07bebfb836715c862055724ec875419.png

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I've got a shitty 25k pension from a former employer.

I didn't realise until now that I could transfer it into a sipp, at least i think I can..?

Should I just transfer it and buy a load of silver shares? Go bollocks deep as it were

(Can you do that?)

I'm thinking its a free stab at making a few quid over the next decade. I'm not arsed if it goes tits up cos I'm in a decent final salary scheme now anyways.

I'm 43 now

Thoughts appreciated

cheers

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Castlevania
4 hours ago, lid said:

I've got a shitty 25k pension from a former employer.

I didn't realise until now that I could transfer it into a sipp, at least i think I can..?

Should I just transfer it and buy a load of silver shares? Go bollocks deep as it were

(Can you do that?)

I'm thinking its a free stab at making a few quid over the next decade. I'm not arsed if it goes tits up cos I'm in a decent final salary scheme now anyways.

I'm 43 now

Thoughts appreciated

cheers

You can transfer it into a SIPP.

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5 hours ago, lid said:

I've got a shitty 25k pension from a former employer.

I didn't realise until now that I could transfer it into a sipp, at least i think I can..?

Should I just transfer it and buy a load of silver shares? Go bollocks deep as it were

(Can you do that?)

I'm thinking its a free stab at making a few quid over the next decade. I'm not arsed if it goes tits up cos I'm in a decent final salary scheme now anyways.

I'm 43 now

Thoughts appreciated

cheers

I collated my various pensions into a SIPP a few years ago. First with AJ Bell, latterly 100% transferred to James Hay. The reason for the move was to allow access to gold bullion (only about 10 or so SIPP providers allow it).

I'm using Selftrade for stocks through JH. Pretty poor platform compared to Hargreaves Lansdown. Otherwise everything seems to be ok.

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Talking Monkey
11 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Holger putting it out there.

image.png.2beaca8f78354d325f030b8241739510.png

image.png.cc3e5f456fd9e54f76ea0ffb3126ee49.png

I didnt realise Nividia had made it into the glamour stocks, it has gone mental its PE ratio is way above Intels or is that too simplistic a view to take

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1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

I didnt realise Nividia had made it into the glamour stocks, it has gone mental its PE ratio is way above Intels or is that too simplistic a view to take

Graphics cards are excellent for Crypto crunching.

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1 hour ago, Talking Monkey said:

I didnt realise Nividia had made it into the glamour stocks, it has gone mental its PE ratio is way above Intels or is that too simplistic a view to take

Intel is meant to just have the 'personal computer' and server markets -- and these are fairly stable so growth comes as those markets grow.  (it is more complex than that, but as a 2 sec overview)

Nvidia has been graphics processors (its 'stable market', growing as the market grows) but they've also got two potential 'big growth' areas -- cloud gaming and AI.  So, they've got a dream of future wealth behind them, driving the PE higher.

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26 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

Graphics cards are excellent for Crypto crunching.

Those days are gone* -- The money is in ASIC based mining now.

[* for the most part]

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5 minutes ago, dgul said:

Those days are gone* -- The money is in ASIC based mining now.

[* for the most part]

I cant keep up with pace of change!  xD

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11 hours ago, lid said:

I've got a shitty 25k pension from a former employer.

I didn't realise until now that I could transfer it into a sipp, at least i think I can..?

Should I just transfer it and buy a load of silver shares? Go bollocks deep as it were

(Can you do that?)

I'm thinking its a free stab at making a few quid over the next decade. I'm not arsed if it goes tits up cos I'm in a decent final salary scheme now anyways.

I'm 43 now

Thoughts appreciated

cheers

Yes you can do that, I have a Interactive Investor SIPP and can access a decent selection of silver shares. If the shares do rocket to the moon the platform admin fee is fixed (not % based like most) at £10/month + a £10/20 service plan fee depending on trading option chosen. 

 

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The Idiocrat
14 minutes ago, dgul said:

Those days are gone* -- The money is in ASIC based mining now.

[* for the most part]

Is there any money in mining after the Halving at current crypto prices and hardware/energy costs? Argo (miner) share price down 50% in last 3 months and they’re supposed to be one of the most efficient (I don’t own any, on my watch list).

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6 hours ago, Sasquatch said:

I collated my various pensions into a SIPP a few years ago. First with AJ Bell, latterly 100% transferred to James Hay. The reason for the move was to allow access to gold bullion (only about 10 or so SIPP providers allow it).

Sasquatch, when you say 'allows access to gold bullion' do you mean buying gold etf's/etc's - or are you talking something more like holding physical gold in a storage facility?  

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