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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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21 minutes ago, AWW said:

I'm not a virologist, so please point out any false assumptions I've made. It would also be good for people to share their own indicators. I'm only really interested in the UK picture.

Any person who tests positive for covid and dies is treated as a covid death in the statistics.  This will include things like Cancer and Car crashes, if its on the death certificate its good as far as ONS are concerned!

Lies, damn lies and statistics.

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I am amused by people that go along with and help spread the incessant fear-mongering, and then wonder why the economy isn't starting back up again

 

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sancho panza
14 minutes ago, Errol said:

We haven't dealt with the first wave yet. US cases totally out of control. India - totally out of control. Russia - barely controlled. Spain - reports steepest rise in cases in months (https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/jul/16/coronavirus-live-news-fauci-says-us-must-stop-nonsense-south-africa-cases-top-300000) etc etc.

UK will see a gradual and then large increase in cases as lock down eases. Health Secretary already admitted to dealing with 'hundreds' of outbreaks that they forgot to tell the media about.

2nd Wave will come in late October/November.

Covid also has horrendous long term impacts even for those who have had mild cases in may instances. You simply don't want to catch this.

Cases may be rising but death rates are levelling off.These viruses generally-as I understand it- mutate into weaker forms as they progress throuhg a population in terms of the old 'don't kill the host' theme.

How else do you expect a rises in positive test results and no corresponding rise in mortality in places like Leicester.

Reality is that something like 80% of infections are asymptomatic,data yet to be confirmed and won't be for some time.The coming OCt/Nov will be the coming flu season which will peak in Dec/Jan like it usually does.

The first is a piece from May 22 on the UK IFR,the piece following was posted on the Sceptics thread in early March and I think that Prof Ioannidis was far more accurate in his prediction than Prof Magoo at Imperial College.

https://www.healthwatch-uk.org/publications/covid-19/202-covid-19-13.html

What is the risk of dying from becoming infected (IFR)?

Considering how difficult it is even to establish the death rate per diagnosed case (CFR) in a consistent way, and knowing that many of those infected do not even show symptoms, you can see that estimating the risk of death from just becoming infected with the virus (IFR) is way more of a challenge. Antibody testing will help us understand how many people have been infected so far, and enable us to estimate the IFR more accurately. But until then, taking account of factors such as historical experience, trends in the data, and potential impact of misclassification of deaths, the COVID-19 IFR is currently estimated at somewhere between 0.1% and 0.41%.

Mandy Payne, 22nd May 2020

 

 

'John Ioannidis Professor of Medicine,Epidemiology & Population Health at Stanford University,queries the lack of decent data.

17 March 2020

A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/17/a-fiasco-in-the-making-as-the-coronavirus-pandemic-takes-hold-we-are-making-decisions-without-reliable-data/

The data collected so far on how many people are infected and how the epidemic is evolving are utterly unreliable. Given the limited testing to date, some deaths and probably the vast majority of infections due to SARS-CoV-2 are being missed.

The one situation where an entire, closed population was tested was the Diamond Princess cruise ship and its quarantine passengers. The case fatality rate there was 1.0%, but this was a largely elderly population, in which the death rate from Covid-19 is much higher.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%.

Projecting the Diamond Princess mortality rate onto the age structure of the U.S. population, the death rate among people infected with Covid-19 would be 0.125%. But since this estimate is based on extremely thin data — there were just seven deaths among the 700 infected passengers and crew — the real death rate could stretch from five times lower (0.025%) to five times higher (0.625%).

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sancho panza
1 hour ago, AWW said:

But we've already eased lockdown and haven't seen any increase whatsoever, using the proxy of NHS 111 calls. Obviously, there is the possibility that deaths will start to tick up over the next fortnight or so. Do you think 111 calls are now a poor indicator, that people just won't bother calling and just assume they have Covid-19?

I'm not a virologist, so please point out any false assumptions I've made. It would also be good for people to share their own indicators. I'm only really interested in the UK picture.

I think the key indicator I've seen is that the people who understand the disease the most seem to be the least in fear of it.The other two main families I've seenand talked to whilst using the local park over the last three months are two Doctors,wives+kids.I'd seen them around but never talked and we only found out what we all did as we chatted.I don't have their education I jsut prioritize my kids mental health.

The otehr key indicator(and the only one that really matters) is the death rate.There have been statistical outliers but generally the young have been spared which to my unqualified opinion,is the defining element for a real pandemic ie all ages die.Death rate has been falling since early April.

Without boring on too much,I had a septic patient the other night,couldn't guess the source but alerted him in to the local resus unit.They bounced me to the local covid unit-even though the patient wasn't short of breath(which you'd expect with a septic covid pt). We were their only customer.Offered us coffee and all.

In the middle of covid there were some really sick people going into hospital-I heard off but didn't see pts with oxygen saturatiosn of 40% on air(under 88% is bad).Whilst I'm a sceptic in terms of the govt response,the final stages of life with covid are grim from what I've heard.Having said that,the hospitals have never been as quiet as over the last twelve weeks and staff have generally never had as much downtime across the NHS from what I've seen.

 

 

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54 minutes ago, logana said:

Every virus mutates, it is part of a virus life cycle. This means corona will become less deadly. So there will be a second wave but not as many serious cases or deaths.

That is what a doctor friend told me; his hospital have already prepared for the second wave, they are just waiting for the damn PPE

It's not the death that is the issue. It could become less deadly and still cause breathlessness, fatigue, brain damage and a range of other major issues. And these may well last for life - we simply don't know yet.

Less deadly and more infectious, yet still causing horrendous complications would be a very bad outcome indeed - leaving vast swathes of the population with life-long disabilities and illnesses.

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8 hours ago, AWW said:

I just don't see a second wave happening.

  1. We've had the BLM protests and the pubs have been open for getting on for two weeks. The first thing you'd expect to see to indicate a second wave is an increase in calls to NHS 111.  However, enquiries to NHS 111 haven't budged: https://digital.nhs.uk/dashboards/nhs-pathways
    917588111_Screenshot2020-07-16at15_40_15.thumb.png.c498ed73e8cabde4489477ced3650029.png
  2. The original SARS pandemic was largely over within three months. Covid-19 is 70% the same virus:
    813316308_Screenshot2020-07-16at15_59_33.thumb.png.5fa112658d37221c6f989e6cb2d6d2a7.png
  3. New research shows that T-cells, rather than antibodies, provide long-term protection from a number of coronaviruses, Covid-19 included. Early indications are that around half the population are already carrying immunity thanks to T-cells. From https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2550-z 

    This isn't the Spanish Flu. It's not influenza. There won't be a second wave.

I also don't see a 2nd wave coming.  But don't forget, it's election year in the US and I really believe this virus is being used as a tool to bring down the economy & create chaos in order to topple those currently in charge. As conspiracy theories abound, Gates+billionaires want to bring about the Great Reset, and the Far Left are doing anything to help.

 

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Bricks & Mortar
17 minutes ago, Loki said:

There's a whole sub-forum for this

I've just been over there, looking for the Credit Deflation thread.

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3 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I've just been over there, looking for the Credit Deflation thread.

The cheeky buggers upstairs even had the temerity to create a CGT thread when that is absolutely basement dwelling stuff.  We were put in the Basement for a reason.  The world has gone mad.

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As with things finance these days, it seems more important whether people on mass think there will be a second wave and onwards rather than whether there is one or not!  Buy the rumour and sell the fact, or vice versa?!

Also big picture, as the financial macro guys we are, is covid a catalyst for new material lasting change or just at best an accelerator of trends already in place?  The end game, budget deficits, the death of the consumer, the move to inflation, increasing regulation, etc, etc. What's new versus what's become more concentrated?

Often useful to look through things rather than at them!

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4 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I've just been over there, looking for the Credit Deflation thread.

My worry has always been that when things kick off financially, covid or not, they'll all charge down here into the Basement looking for answers, knocking over tables, calling people names, and generally being very boorish and disruptive!  Best we remove the light bulb and talk softly.

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7 hours ago, AQUAMAN said:

netflix just tanked 10% apparently

Any reason?  Been listening to some folk saying they are waiting for a fall on a no news day or even a good news day to signal a turn.

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Castlevania
7 hours ago, Loki said:

I am amused by people that go along with and help spread the incessant fear-mongering, and then wonder why the economy isn't starting back up again

 

And then complain when they’re made redundant 

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14 hours ago, janch said:

They need inflation to get rid of high debt levels.

Bollocks! Anyone who says this is a cunt....it only helps a few individual dipsticks for a short period of time cos undoubtedly they'll just get into even more debt longer term

How does this sit with the inflation lovers?

Just googled Russel Napier, he even looks like a cunt ;)

22df916f8cae908a39199b11b1e1e7aa.png.60a2667c96527f7668704b41ddb47605.png

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7 hours ago, Loki said:

There's a whole sub-forum for this

Agree...and then perhaps you can also provide the evidence you base your statements on so that they can be critically challenged rather than `blindly` propagated.

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3 hours ago, Harley said:

My worry has always been that when things kick off financially, covid or not, they'll all charge down here into the Basement looking for answers, knocking over tables, calling people names, and generally being very boorish and disruptive!  Best we remove the light bulb and talk softly.

Too late, I am here already!...and as for `Sell the fact` and `Buy the rumour`, I can see the similarities with Covid....in fact I have an advisor (think he is a professor) who states that `The share that cannot be named` is going to go x10 next week, so I will be buying now...:-)

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2 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Bollocks! Anyone who says this is a cunt....it only helps a few individual dipsticks for a short period of time cos undoubtedly they'll just get into even more debt longer term

How does this sit with the inflation lovers?

Just googled Russel Napier, he even looks like a cunt ;)

22df916f8cae908a39199b11b1e1e7aa.png.60a2667c96527f7668704b41ddb47605.png

You've been upstairs haven't you?  Quarantine clearly needed! :)

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2 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Just googled Russel Napier, he even looks like a ****

Oh, you're soooo much in trouble (as he takes one step to the right)! o.O

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10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I jsut prioritize my kids mental health.

Same here. Too many grown adults who should know better aren't doing this at all, just swallowing what they read on Facebook and making those of us with a different attitude to risk out to be murderers.

I read somewhere that the risk of being offed by Covid-19 if you're healthy and under 65 is the same as the risk of being killed in a car accident on a 180 mile journey. CLOSE THE ROADS!

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Cases may be rising but death rates are levelling off.These viruses generally-as I understand it- mutate into weaker forms as they progress throuhg a population in terms of the old 'don't kill the host' theme.

Also, weaker and more susceptible people die first. When there are no weak or susceptible people left, the death rate drops off. For some reason, it seems to be verboten in mainstream circles to describe those killed by Covid-19 as "weak", and let's not explain the difference in death rates between ethnic groups by the prevalence of co-morbidities within them; that would be racist!

I'm conscious that there's a separate forum for Covid, but I think discussions about second wave (rather than, say, 5G/vaccine conspiracies, or the government response) are pertinent to the topic, because a second wave will move markets downwards, and I'm under the impression that many on this thread are fully invested after the March lows.

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jamtomorrow
5 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yeah, like Boris :D. Telling me to go back to 3 hours commuting @ £400 a month to go and spend money in Pret, would you ever fuck off :wanker:

The best lockdown outcome for me personally is that it showed my dinosaur managers we can work perfectly well from home, even on high end technical work I just remote into my workstation. I'll probably end up going into the office 2-3 days a week which is fine. But I'll be bringing my own lunch!

Seriously, it's coming to something when rampant consumption is seen as some kind of patriotic calling. Aldous Huxley called it?

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1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yeah, like Boris :D. Telling me to go back to 3 hours commuting @ £400 a month to go and spend money in Pret, would you ever fuck off :wanker:

The best lockdown outcome for me personally is that it showed my dinosaur managers we can work perfectly well from home, even on high end technical work I just remote into my workstation. I'll probably end up going into the office 2-3 days a week which is fine. But I'll be bringing my own lunch!

Agree completely.

Commuting isn't coming back in anything like the way it used to be. Most London businesses have told staff to stay at home until next year (at least). And even post-pandemic home working is the way forward. Most businesses will move to 4 days a week at home or just tell staff to 'do what they like' (like Amazon/Facebook have). Staff are happier and more productive at home. They also save £400 a month or more and 3hrs a day or more in time (I notice the politicians never mention the massive train ticket costs).

London and other cities will need to adapt to footfall being down 50% or more on a regular basis.

Boris is trying to hold back the future. He is trying to keep us in an analogue world when the world is now digital. He is also confusing work as being a place, rather than an activity you can do anywhere.

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1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Seriously, it's coming to something when rampant consumption is seen as some kind of patriotic calling. Aldous Huxley called it?

He says "'cause we are a consumption led economy".  Er yes, but that's a problem statement, not a solution!

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1 hour ago, Harley said:

You've been upstairs haven't you?  Quarantine clearly needed! :)

Harley, can i request please that you don't prod the cage!

(Anyhow, bit confused, as i had considered Napier to be one of the 'good guys'... darn it, hope i haven't encouraged yet more faeces throwing)

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