Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DoINeedOne]

Just now, Bricks & Mortar said:

silver $21/oz.  23 hours later.

 

Gold $1840

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

silver $21/oz.  23 hours later.

 

Two points on silver:

1.  Market is reasonably smooth, there has been zero smack downs recently, it does look like the Banks have had their naked short toys taken away.  

2.  Minimal interest in the miners on the Bulletin boards, the small guys are not taking much notice yet.  Bull still has some way to run IMO.

[Castlevania]

Just now, Majorpain said:

Two points on silver:

1.  Market is reasonably smooth, there has been zero smack downs recently, it does look like the Banks have had their naked short toys taken away.  

2.  Minimal interest in the miners on the Bulletin boards, the small guys are not taking much notice yet.  Bull still has some way to run IMO.

I’m waiting for the Robinhood lot to discover junior gold miners. That would be my shoe shine moment.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I’m waiting for the Robinhood lot to discover junior gold miners. That would be my shoe shine moment.

That's more or less my exact criteria too.  

[janch]

I just found this list of silver miners for anyone who's late to the party like me.  I've only got FRES and HOC so far and was pondering whether to dabble with a couple more, especially one or two juniors which may be more likely to multi-bag.  It looks as if I've missed the boat but perhaps they have further to run especially if the bulletin boards are quiet and the Robinhooders have yet to get on board:

https://www.silverstockdata.com/

[kibuc]

You can only survive March if you know days like these will happen eventually.

Alexco, Impact, Endeavour and Fortuna have been my four horsemen. Also, yesterday swapped my remaining goldies (hmy and fiore) for Great Panther which is also a goldie but people don't know that :p 

[Bobthebuilder]

1 minute ago, kibuc said:

Also, yesterday swapped my remaining goldies (hmy and fiore) for Great Panther which is also a goldie but people don't know that :p 

Brave man. I see they have had a bit of a rise recently but been down in the dirt for a while now.

I love seeing these jnrs running, its all very exciting stuff.

[Loki]

10 minutes ago, janch said:

It looks as if I've missed the boat

It's got all summer to run - if you put your foot down you'll get enough air off the end of the dock to land on the deck 

[kibuc]

23 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Brave man. I see they have had a bit of a rise recently but been down in the dirt for a while now.

I love seeing these jnrs running, its all very exciting stuff.

You've got to risk it to take the biscuit. I want to outperform SILJ by at least 25% before it hits $30, so inevitably I need to go for the highest-risk plays. 

My best performer so far has been Impact but is so damn illiquid that I dare not put any more into it than I already have. I don't fancy getting my money out in £2k tranches when the time comes.

[Loki]

Here they come - Trading212 alert

[Castlevania]

49 minutes ago, kibuc said:

You can only survive March if you know days like these will happen eventually.

Alexco, Impact, Endeavour and Fortuna have been my four horsemen. Also, yesterday swapped my remaining goldies (hmy and fiore) for Great Panther which is also a goldie but people don't know that :p 

Great Panther! Even complete crap is rising.

[Loki]

Does anyone see silver having a pullback at about $22 and preparing for next leg up?

[Castlevania]

21 minutes ago, Loki said:

Does anyone see silver having a pullback at about $22 and preparing for next leg up?

Quite probably. Nothing goes up (or down) in a straight line.

[DurhamBorn]

Those rubber band silver miners making us huge amounts of capital now chaps.)

I keep slicing a bit of profit off the top to pick up telcos and potash.We have called this cycle turn very well so far with big profits and a few whacks.

I should mention we nailed the dollar call again,everyone and their dog calling the dollar to go over 100 at 97.5,we said it was going down.The liquidity flow work on the dollar calls has really nailed it the last several years and the lag indicator seems to be really calling the turns.That road map is saying we should expect enough liquidity to push the dollar under 90 before the risk of another collapse.The risk area remains id the dollar goes over 100.

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

 

 

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

You can only survive March if you know days like these will happen eventually.

Alexco, Impact, Endeavour and Fortuna have been my four horsemen. Also, yesterday swapped my remaining goldies (hmy and fiore) for Great Panther which is also a goldie but people don't know that :p 

My rubber band list that ignores all fundamentals and simply buys the most hated,despised,badly ran pieces of dirt in the sector. 

[Castlevania]

With regards to potash does anyone know what caused all the potash producers to spike so much in late 2007/early 2008? It’s a little before my time. Was that from inflation fears? 

[DurhamBorn]

23 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

With regards to potash does anyone know what caused all the potash producers to spike so much in late 2007/early 2008? It’s a little before my time. Was that from inflation fears? 

"Fertilizer prices started rising rapidly in October 2007, and the price spike lasted for almost 12 months," says Ian Gregory, IFDC Agribusiness Specialist.

"Numerous factors converged simultaneously to cause fertilizer prices to soar, then suddenly collapse. Some have compared the series of events to 'a perfect storm.'"

Prices were essentially driven up by an imbalance between supply and rapidly expanding demand, especially in Asia, Gregory explains. Fertilizer demand reached a level that supply could not match. Demand was particularly strong in China and India. Another factor was increased demand for fertilizers to produce biofuels in the United States, Brazil, and Europe. Increased livestock production created still more demand for grain and thus for fertilizers. Grain reserves became historically low and prices rose sharply.

Further worsening the situation were China's imposition of high tariffs on fertilizer exports and the devaluation of the U.S. dollar in 2007 and 2008. Energy prices peaked, causing an increase in the price of natural gas--essential for nitrogen fertilizer production. Phosphate prices were also driven up by a huge increase in demand and prices for sulfur, vital for production of the popular DAP and other high-analysis phosphate fertilizers. The supply of quality phosphate rock also became tight.

[Hardhat]

My portfolio is pretty much up 50% on average on any and every company that digs up metal as it stands today.

I always find it hard to time profit taking, the next few weeks will be the test of that I think!

Between the DaveH gold / silver target and this thread hopefully it will become clear. DaveH targets would see at least another 50%+ increase from here.

Would like to take profits in miners to move into potash and green energy shares.

I've always been interested in the PMs but thanks to all the posters here for their insights as I've learnt so much.

My entire portfolio is up 14%, I have a few things which are down over 20% (K&S, RDSB) and a few that are just standing still.

If I had stuck to my original narrow focus and just invested in PM stocks I would have more money but be far less diversified and have far less knowledge. I really feel that I am learning investing techniques for a lifetime here.

[CVG]

2 hours ago, janch said:

I just found this list of silver miners for anyone who's late to the party like me.  I've only got FRES and HOC so far and was pondering whether to dabble with a couple more, especially one or two juniors which may be more likely to multi-bag.  It looks as if I've missed the boat but perhaps they have further to run especially if the bulletin boards are quiet and the Robinhooders have yet to get on board:

https://www.silverstockdata.com/

Do a search for DB's list in this topic. Mine have doubled in the last few months (cheers DB). DB - are you still top slicing your miner gains into Potash or have you maxed out your allocation to that too? 

(I see DB answered that an hour ago)

[kibuc]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

 

My rubber band list that ignores all fundamentals and simply buys the most hated,despised,badly ran pieces of dirt in the sector. 

Actually, AXU isn't half bad but yeah, things like GPR or Endeavour are cheap for a reason. I'm just placing a bet that with PMs rocketing up, for a few moments those reasons won't matter.

[DurhamBorn]

25 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Actually, AXU isn't half bad but yeah, things like GPR or Endeavour are cheap for a reason. I'm just placing a bet that with PMs rocketing up, for a few moments those reasons won't matter.

Yep,they hand out massive pain until silver runs then they run hard,its always the same,of course you dont want to be holding when things turn down.Endeavour will be selling stock into the rally to raise money for their new mine as well.

[DurhamBorn]

45 minutes ago, CVG said:

Do a search for DB's list in this topic. Mine have doubled in the last few months (cheers DB). DB - are you still top slicing your miner gains into Potash or have you maxed out your allocation to that too? 

(I see DB answered that an hour ago)

My portfolio is mainly now a retire portfolio,so although im tilted towards some high risk areas like the silver miners im always slowly rotating into big solid companies i expect to pay dividends and still do very well in a reflation.Iv always had the mentality towards my portfolio that if i can buy something that goes up 100% and then recycle into big divi payers it can pay big time.A lot of the BAT and Imperial shares i owned that multi bagged and paid huge income were bought when they were hated with profits from the tech boom.

A prime example this time is taking profits from Endeavour along the way and buying Nutrien,Telenor,Telefonica,Telia etc.In a way its getting them half price from already hugely down prices thanks to road mapping silver correct.

If i was 30 id of taken less profits now and chased higher capital gains.

[leonardratso]

heres some 90's style web pages with actually a fair old amount of quick info;

http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/lse.htm

 

[Popuplights]

2 hours ago, Hardhat said:

down over 20% (K&S, RDSB)

Fucking RDSB is the boil on the arse of my portfolio.

[harp]

I'm gutted! Just sold Wesdome Gold since buying when they were at 2.2 CAD now 14.25. It was by FAR the biggest holding thanks to kibuc mentioning them long ago. They appealed not because of my own research, but because I knew a guy at school years ago called Wes. He had the biggest fucking head it was like a dome, hence his nickname, wesdome. I kid you not. He is a multi-millionaire now in the Bristol area. So, thanks Kibuc, thanks massive heed, thanks wesdome gold. I walk away today with 50k profit from this trade alone. I'm not going to even mention all the "reflation" stocks that I'm currently down on...which is FAR more than 50k overall. BUT I have patience...and gold & silver (just no wesdome) in just about every form you can think of. 

2 hours ago, kibuc said:

Actually, AXU isn't half bad but yeah, things like GPR or Endeavour are cheap for a reason. I'm just placing a bet that with PMs rocketing up, for a few moments those reasons won't matter.