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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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jamtomorrow

Aussie Gold Hunters might need to up their game, LBMA participants are out-doing them: https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/two-of-the-world-s-biggest-banks-blacklist-perth-mint-20200724-p55f3v

Two of the world's biggest banks blacklist Perth Mint

Two of the world's largest banks, HSBC and JPMorgan, have stopped buying gold from the Perth Mint, citing potential damage to their reputation and concerns the government-owned refiner could lose its London accreditation.

The black ban follows revelations in The Australian Financial Review that the mint was buying up to $200 million of gold a year from a convicted killer in Papua New Guinea and that child labour and toxic mercury were present in its supply chain

...

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8 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

HSBC and JPMorgan, have stopped buying gold from the Perth Mint, citing potential damage to their reputation

Are they taking the piss?

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leonardratso
5 minutes ago, Loki said:

Are they taking the piss?

hehe, exactly, like they have a reputation to preserve, hahaha, and like they care about dealing with killers or any scum of the earth, real virtue signalling. Im sure the chinese wont mind taking up the slack.

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leonardratso

so, some archived notes i took from here;

    Expecting a melt up into summer with the S&P getting to 4000+
    Bust sometime around end of August but maybe in July or into September with S&P falling 80%
    Dollar (DXY) to fall to 85 by summer then to rise in the bust
    Economy to move from consumer lead to industrial for the next cycle
    Bust will lead the Fed to expand balance sheet to $20tn maybe even $30tn
    Price inflation to appear by 2022
    Gold to $2000+ by labor day (beginning of September) but dropping to $1000 in the bust but rising to $10000+ by end of the decade
    Silver to $25, dropping to $10 in the bust and rising to $300 by end of decade
    The bust will impact all assets except for the dollar and treasuries.
    Oil $45, dropping to $10 in the bust then rising to $300 by 2026-8
    US 10-year yield to 1.5% in the summer, 0% in the bust and rising to 15% by the end of the decade
    Big collapse after 2030 as the Fed will be unable to print due to inflation

are we still on track do yous guys reckon?

big kahuna this year sept time?

dxy/gold/silver+oil seem to be heading there, s&p looks lagging, but then again it has many components to wont be spot on, robin hooders gonna get mightily shafted if it comes to pass.

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I can see the S&P blowing up before 4000.

But what would be an event that makes gold and silver blow up? Although everything suffered in March in the general sell-off I feel sentiment towards these will not overturn anytime soon.

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1 minute ago, Sasquatch said:

Correct and not dropping much lower than $25 I think he said (ie where it is now).

I have bought back in at $24, I was expecting a pull back and a breather when I sold at $22.3.  Had a good run up from $17/$18/$19 though.  Can't call everything right!

(I mean it went up a dollar overnight!)

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leonardratso

aye, theyll adjust up as volumes run away, but have to take a stand at some point, especially if your conviction is strong on the roadmap, a lot of the stuff ive got is shit at the moment, only the gold/silver/hydrogen/nickel looks solid, but i know that could rotate in a matter of days/weeks. No matter, ill keep top slicing and averaging down, cash is good to have throwing around.

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Bricks & Mortar
47 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

so, some archived notes i took from here;

    Expecting a melt up into summer with the S&P getting to 4000+
    Bust sometime around end of August but maybe in July or into September with S&P falling 80%
    Dollar (DXY) to fall to 85 by summer then to rise in the bust
    Economy to move from consumer lead to industrial for the next cycle
    Bust will lead the Fed to expand balance sheet to $20tn maybe even $30tn
    Price inflation to appear by 2022
    Gold to $2000+ by labor day (beginning of September) but dropping to $1000 in the bust but rising to $10000+ by end of the decade
    Silver to $25, dropping to $10 in the bust and rising to $300 by end of decade
    The bust will impact all assets except for the dollar and treasuries.
    Oil $45, dropping to $10 in the bust then rising to $300 by 2026-8
    US 10-year yield to 1.5% in the summer, 0% in the bust and rising to 15% by the end of the decade
    Big collapse after 2030 as the Fed will be unable to print due to inflation

are we still on track do yous guys reckon?

big kahuna this year sept time?

I think the US politicians are going to throw everything and the kitchen sink at the election, (I mean, the Trump administration, plus all the members of Congress that are up for re-election).    I think they have $1.7 trillion (about $4.5K per citizen), in the Treasury General Account, and can imagine that all getting spanked before the election.  Who knows, maybe the Fed will even pitch in.  So, personally, I'm thinking a mid-winter BK is a possibility.  This might mean targets for gold and silver are overshot, and the levels they sink to in the bust aren't as low.
That is not to say I necessarily believe they'll be successful, and I'm keeping a close eye on my stops which I'm resetting at 15% below current value almost daily now.  Just starting to get worried about shares like EDR and AG, that can't have stops because they're overseas listed and are overweight because they've done phenomenally well.

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Just now, Loki said:

BP back below 300p...

Has been for a few days. I added some to my kids' LISA and have orders to buy more at 275 and 250.

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leonardratso

yers, oil stuttering. no matter, ill keep going in them, if just for the divis if they ever pick up again.

hehe, i noticed my credit score has dropped some on various credit agencies, the reason; i owe my credit card £51 - hehehe, fucking morons, £51 of the near 30K limit on the card.

 

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If I were Trump, obviously you'd want to spend the cash before the election.

But I'd string it out a bit. Let people suffer first. 

Spend the money as an effective bribe. Dish the money out in voucher format, but the voucher contains a big fat picture of him and a subliminal advert to vote for him.

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leonardratso

BTC might make it to my £8200 sell point, hopefully make it to my total sellout at £8500.

Knew i should have stuck with eth rather than pissing about with BCH+LTC+OMG, but hey, easy come easy go.

wow, just blew straight thru it like it didnt exist, just a smidge off £8500 now.

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28 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Holger reports the $20tn Fed figure often discussed here. Question is, is he referencing Deutsche Bank, or Durham Born?!

Screenshot_20200727-175411_Twitter.thumb.jpg.989b0b9692c7de282e9cc117ab082bc3.jpg

Does he ever tweet pizza recipes? :ph34r:

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11 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Just heard them report the gold price on BBC R4, when they do this you know the buying opportunity (for the short term) is over!

Entire business segment (half an hour of 'Ian King Live') on Sky News today didn't mention gold once (despite mentioning oil price, currencies, markets etc.)

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41 minutes ago, Errol said:

Entire business segment (half an hour of 'Ian King Live') on Sky News today didn't mention gold once (despite mentioning oil price, currencies, markets etc.)

Never fear Errol. More people will access the main BBC News site:

image.png.fb83d9e32c9e6474f8c75411ac67f1ff.png

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sancho panza
15 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Screenshot_20200727-073528_Chrome.thumb.jpg.78b710675a1a63d03b1bf4e345b06193.jpg

That is quite the move

 

13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Great call,100-93 in a month.I'll be watching like a hawk for 85.Could be very intersting ref PM's if we get there

Has the 30 year bottomed here...? after a 40 year bull?

image.png.585e2902d4fb91fade711bb18a52256b.png

6 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I think the US politicians are going to throw everything and the kitchen sink at the election, (I mean, the Trump administration, plus all the members of Congress that are up for re-election).    I think they have $1.7 trillion (about $4.5K per citizen), in the Treasury General Account, and can imagine that all getting spanked before the election.  Who knows, maybe the Fed will even pitch in.  So, personally, I'm thinking a mid-winter BK is a possibility.  This might mean targets for gold and silver are overshot, and the levels they sink to in the bust aren't as low.
That is not to say I necessarily believe they'll be successful, and I'm keeping a close eye on my stops which I'm resetting at 15% below current value almost daily now.  Just starting to get worried about shares like EDR and AG, that can't have stops because they're overseas listed and are overweight because they've done phenomenally well.

US markets rarely drop in a Presidential year so I think you're bang on B&M.

Lot of BK searchers on here-myself included-trying to work the maths and as compelling as a BK is,it jsut doesn't seem imminent to me

I'm still on for piling into UST's from PMs but they'll need to bewell south of here,,otherwise it mishgt jsut be cash

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I took 5k profit on GDXJ overnight.  Could well go higher, but I think it's rational to take some profit on the way up - I remember when it turned in 12-13 (I didn't have any at the time) and dropped fast.  Still got a fair bit left in it.

Missed the chance on SIL.  Too late now, I think.

So following what many on here seem to be doing and holding a bit of cash but also picking up BP, etc in the small dips.

Then again if the yanks announce alien space tech with power run by gnat farts for free, oil really will be fucked...

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13 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It defined modern America and what it was.The aftermath of the war more than the war itself.The southern way of life was destroyed.Its not for this thread really,but a fascinating subject.

Can heartily recommend the Ken Burns Civil War series.

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What happens next to the 30 year mortgage rate is surely the key to if Main Street can stay solvent through CoVID pt2.

Already at record lows, according to this there are already lenders offering 2.25% for 30 yrs down 1 - 1.5% on last year.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/mortgage-rates-just-hit-another-record-low.html

Will the Fed signal lower for longer again this week? Is the reflation event going to get pushed out to the mid ‘20’s?

DCA1CADF-BF87-4D62-BB10-F76D057FC130.png

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