Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DoINeedOne]

Like others i make use of spread sheets but even that seems limited 

I actually rang HL the other day to see if i could buy a stock that was not showing after talking to 2 people they came back with

"We currently can't buy that, maybe try again once corona stuff has calmed down" 

So registered an account with Degiro approved within the week and bought it there without talking to anyone notice they have a few miners that HL doesn't show too

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

On the subject of HL...

I have an account with HL with an ISA and SIPP.

I maintain 3 Watchlists there that mirror my ISA, my SIPP and a Combination of both. I also have spreadsheets that detail individual transactions. I use average prices paid then adjust them based on extra purchasing or selling.

Therefore I don't take much notice of the HL Stocks tab and the P/L on it per share or overall. Yesterday I noticed a discrepancy there compared to my Watchlist and spreadsheet. In this case it displayed a profit in my mind that doesn't exist.

Without going into the details of my actual trades and ignoring costs, using nice round figures, say you buy 3000 shares at 300 the cost is £9000

Say the price dropped to 200 so you bought another 2000 that cost is £4000

At that point your average price is 260 (£13,000 / 5000)

Say the price rises back to 300 so you decide to take the profit on the 2000 shares and sell them.

If you then look at your HL Shares tab it would show the cost for the remaining 3000 shares as £7800 because it still uses the 260 average price. It would show a profit of £1,200 +13% on those 3000 shares at the current 300 price even though in reality there is no profit on them in my mind! They cost £9000

Obviously HL cannot read my mind and know which portion of my shares I sold. In my mind I took my profit on the 2000 and banked it but the remaining 3000 at 300 is only level, not +£1,200 or +13%. If I'd decided to take my "profit" and sell I'd have been disappointed when I completed the transaction in my spreadsheet!

I only mention this for people looking to take their HL  'profits'.

Why are you matching a sale with the most recent purchase? 

The HL approach is broadly consistent with HMRC’s approach where you have a share pool and the sale price when calculating a gain is based on the average price paid.

[Harley]

3 hours ago, kibuc said:

Your comment just tanked the silver market. 

Panic over?  Support at £18 on the daily?

Respecting (in GBP) the long term (monthly) cup and handle pattern like gold? 

If so, pull back to the 2013 pattern entry (c.£17.50) with another later to the exit (c.£21.xx or god forbid £25 to £28)?

[Harley]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

What I don't understand about this is why silver is increasing so much more than gold, as the former is an indistrial metal and that demand due to recession will be dropping.

All industrial metals have been doing well since March (unlike the soft commodities).  AIGI up 23% since the March low.

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Why are you matching a sale with the most recent purchase? 

The HL approach is broadly consistent with HMRC’s approach where you have a share pool and the sale price when calculating a gain is based on the average price paid.

Because my 2000 purchase was just done for a trade.

I understand the HMRC thing but like I say I think there should be a Yes/No average price option

On Betfair when I look at matched bets there is an option to use average price or not. It can be quite a long list of transactions if it's not ticked but interesting to see the spread of individual prices.

[Castlevania]

7 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Because my 2000 purchase was just done for a trade.

I understand the HMRC thing but like I say I think there should be a Yes/No average price option

On Betfair when I look at matched bets there is an option to use average price or not. It can be quite a long list of transactions if it's not ticked but interesting to see the spread of individual prices.

Your approach doesn’t make any sense to me. 

There should be an option on the HL website to adjust the purchase price.

[DurhamBorn]

1 minute ago, Harley said:

Panic over?  Support at £18?

Silver is still heading higher i think,its hardly owned and pull backs simply give entry points to people who know they have no silver.Iv been selling miners slowly into the jump,but will hold the rest now until the rally returns.I was tempted to sell my sons physical when it went over my $24 target as it would mean he could cut his mortgage in half and be down to 37% LTV,a few months after buying,but have decided not to.

[Democorruptcy]

4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Your approach doesn’t make any sense to me. 

There should be an option on the HL website to adjust the purchase price.

That's really another thread I'm a gambler with no other income and believe you don't go bust taking profits all the time.

I asked HL for the option to adjust the cost price and they told me they cannot allow it because people would be able to manipulate their own data. They didn't mention for HMRC purposes but I assume that's what they meant. The only time a cost price can be adjusted is when shares are transferred in from another provider

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/low-carbon-energy/energy-transition/2020/repsol-repositions-for-green-hydrogen

Really good article on Repsol's investment into hydrogen.Big oil is going to control this space probably.Thats the bit the market is missing.These projects should be prime for capital spending expansion just as oil prices run up hard giving the players the capital needed while others cant raise it.

[CVG]

Hurry up Errol. Ian King is going to be talking sausage rolls with the Greggs CEO today.

 

Hold on. Gold/Silver is 2nd item today!

[leonardratso]

never heard of niobium, is it close to knobium on the periodic table?

[Wheeler]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Like I say I keep my own P/L and rarely even look at that page, only trying to help others who might rely on it more.

I keep my own spreadsheets as well. I do think it was worthwhile you pointing it out though. 

[Democorruptcy]

50p... just saying.

[AWW]

Retail punters haven't discovered silver at all, even less physical silver.  I've got a monster box of 2020 Brits on the way (ordered Friday) to sell to them when they do.

[janch]

[JMD]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/low-carbon-energy/energy-transition/2020/repsol-repositions-for-green-hydrogen

Really good article on Repsol's investment into hydrogen.Big oil is going to control this space probably.Thats the bit the market is missing.These projects should be prime for capital spending expansion just as oil prices run up hard giving the players the capital needed while others cant raise it.

Great article. Will the prospect of these type of power plants nudge out the need for nuclear? I acknowledge the base-load argument for having nuclear, but the article mentions that electrolysis/hydrogen plants might also offer the (holy grail) solution to the problem of green energy storage.

I  assume lots of (sea) water is needed, but the article doesn't mention this? If so, i guess China/India (hot countries with expansive dry inland areas) will still need to go nuclear eventually, once they stop building their coal power plants that is. 

 

[Ma2]

3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

https://www.petroleum-economist.com/articles/low-carbon-energy/energy-transition/2020/repsol-repositions-for-green-hydrogen

Really good article on Repsol's investment into hydrogen.Big oil is going to control this space probably.Thats the bit the market is missing.These projects should be prime for capital spending expansion just as oil prices run up hard giving the players the capital needed while others cant raise it.

Interesting that iridium among other metals may be required for this process if/when low cost electricity is unavailable. Iridium is mined by Anglo American who some on here may already hold.

"...a solid PEM electrolyte uses pure water, is more efficient and can generate more hydrogen. “The problem is that such advanced electrolysers must use large amounts of expensive and rare elements like iridium,” says Simonov. “There is just not enough iridium to build these devices on a massive, terawatt scale.”

Having low-cost renewable electricity helps solve this problem.

“We can replace what is essentially an unavailable element with something that does not work quite as well and requires a bit more energy, but is much cheaper and plentiful,” Simonov adds. “In this way one can more than compensate for any energy inefficiencies this solution might have.”

[dgul]

Well, Goldman has just announced they expect gold to go up this year.  So expect it to go down for a bit.

[Errol]

It's obviously going to go down at some point. A nice drop back to $1800 or something would be good.

But in the long term all this is just noise.

[Transistor Man]

5 hours ago, leonardratso said:

never heard of niobium, is it close to knobium on the periodic table?

Superconductors and Magnets, and superalloys. Very useful.

[Lightscribe]

On 27/07/2020 at 17:30, leonardratso said:

BTC might make it to my £8200 sell point, hopefully make it to my total sellout at £8500.

Knew i should have stuck with eth rather than pissing about with BCH+LTC+OMG, but hey, easy come easy go.

wow, just blew straight thru it like it didnt exist, just a smidge off £8500 now.

1) Stick to $ in crypto, easy to track support levels , MACD and USD movement reactions (hence this bull run in BTC)

2) In regards to alt coins, yes BCH but tbh if your looking to trade, then use the high volume coins/tokens. Instead of LTC and OMG, trade LINK and ADA (both have fallen back due to BTC jump.) I've been trading ADA today bought 10,000 from 1250 sats and just sold a moment ago at 1330.

[leonardratso]

32 minutes ago, Sideysid said:

1) Stick to $ in crypto, easy to track support levels , MACD and USD movement reactions (hence this bull run in BTC)

2) In regards to alt coins, yes BCH but tbh if your looking to trade, then use the high volume coins/tokens. Instead of LTC and OMG, trade LINK and ADA (both have fallen back due to BTC jump.) I've been trading ADA today bought 10,000 from 1250 sats and just sold a moment ago at 1330.

aye, im only playing with whats left, so only £250 left in now, stuck a grand in a while back across those 4 and keep cashing out and just bringing the money back, ill wait for it to tank back and just go back in with the seed money and rinse/repeat, just cant be arsed to watch it so just set sell ladders all the way up once ive bought something.

[leonardratso]

back the truckup, the anti-barometer is back, i know its ZH, but this guy was always on the wrong side;

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gartman-im-getting-out-gold

 

 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

back the truckup, the anti-barometer is back, i know its ZH, but this guy was always on the wrong side;

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/gartman-im-getting-out-gold

 

 

Please don't let this be the time he get's something right...I only know his name from ZH but I got the impression he is a perfect "anti-barometer"!

[leonardratso]

4 minutes ago, Loki said:

Please don't let this be the time he get's something right...I only know his name from ZH but I got the impression he is a perfect "anti-barometer"!

i bloody hope not, there again a broken clock is right twice a day, hopefully hes the broken clock with no hands.