Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[leonardratso]

3 minutes ago, Craig said:

It is quite something, isn't it?

its apparently been limit downed 14 times so far in 2 days.

[Bricks & Mortar]

46 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

wow, kodak certainly made its way back quick to its all time high, in 2 days, lol.

I was looking at the reason behind it.  Trump announced he's giving them a billion $ so they can start a pharmaceutical production business.  That would be exactly what DB predicted at the start of the thread. - govt printing cash and putting it into industry.
Well done sir.

 

[leonardratso]

30 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

I was looking at the reason behind it.  Trump announced he's giving them a billion $ so they can start a pharmaceutical production business.  That would be exactly what DB predicted at the start of the thread. - govt printing cash and putting it into industry.
Well done sir.

 

aye, bringing drug production home from china.

the robinhooders dream.

[Jesus Wept]

A nice little graph....

[Errol]

Russia & China speed up de-dollarisation process: most trade no longer conducted in greenbacks

After years of talking about abandoning the US dollar, Russia and China are doing it for real. In the first quarter of 2020, the share of the dollar in trade between the countries fell below 50 percent for the first time.

To give an indication of the scale of the adjustment, just four years ago the greenback accounted for over 90 percent of their currency settlements.

Lavrov called the rejection of the greenback "an objective response to the unpredictability of US economic policy and the outright abuse by Washington of the dollar's status as a world reserve currency."

https://www.rt.com/russia/496570-russia-china-dedollarisation-process/

[DurhamBorn]

8 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Nest pension fund divesting from certain fossil fuels companies including BHP

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/29/national-employment-savings-trust-uks-biggest-pension-fund-divests-from-fossil-fuels

So some of the lowest paid people in the country will not have their pension savings put into companies that will lead the market over the next cycle due to left wing dogma.

[DurhamBorn]

13 hours ago, Vendetta said:

As you have said before (relative to your post above) DB (@DurhamBorn )there is potential massive upside in a move to assets and commodities - Potash / fertiliser industry being a prime example. (Dash to assets).

Got myself some more MOS yesterday (after a 3.5% fall on the day).

Also into SDF (K&S AG). 
 

Anyone got thoughts on Intrepid Potash?

Also the biggest potash producers are the massive miners. They are a win not only on all the PMs, but also Potash and potential big dividends long term as an inflation shield.

 

Back to MOS - It is nice to ‘buy the dips’ - however when you look at historical price and potential upside when you get a ‘perfect storm’ a la 2007/8 a daily fall of 50c or 1$ fall is ‘small potato’....in comparison. 

I know people have commented on this graph before but it’s nice to look at a 25 year context. 

You set a price for top slicing  any silver? £30/oz ?  I need to be more disciplined and take real profits. 

‘Paper profits’ are not worth shit.....

I really like Nutrien as well,not the upside of Mosaic but a nice company .Im not selling Mosaic below $30,probably not below $40,i got them in March at the bottom,very pleased up 40% so far.

[Shamone]

7 hours ago, Alifelessbinary said:

Agreed, they went from being one of the cheapest places to quite expensive. A year or two back they had a huge variety of stock, but like most of the whole sellers their supply of physical was squeezed after March. 

Through sheer luck I picked up all my physical allocation in 2015 and 2017. The only thing I’m buying now is a few Queens Beast to complete the collection. 

Gold I’ll continue to pick up a couple Of sovereigns every quarter. Who knows where gold will end up but sovereigns do have the benefit of hiding well in the prison wallet and can buy you out of a tough situation. I’m not sure I’d want to transport silver in the same way!

The man with the golden aschen

[Hardhat]

The Anglo-Dutch oil giant revealed a net loss of $18.3bn (£14.1bn) for the second quarter 2020, down sharply from a net profit of $3bn over the same period last year and $2.7bn in the first three months of 2020.

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/30/shell-reports-18bn-financial-loss-amid-covid-19-collapse-in-global-oil-and-gas-prices

Shares are back below 1200p

[AWW]

I'm still a whole 3% up on RDSB, but am sorely tempted to buy more at 1150, despite the fact that I'm already a tad heavy. Anyone got buy orders placed?

[Castlevania]

3 minutes ago, AWW said:

I'm still a whole 3% up on RDSB, but am sorely tempted to buy more at 1150, despite the fact that I'm already a tad heavy. Anyone got buy orders placed?

I have enough at current prices. If they dropped to £10 then I would buy more. 

I’m pretty much fully allocated in Shell; BP; Repsol; Exxon and ConocoPhillips. I’m now looking to diversify into other large oil companies.

[jamtomorrow]

18 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I have enough at current prices. If they dropped to £10 then I would buy more. 

I’m pretty much fully allocated in Shell; BP; Repsol; Exxon and ConocoPhillips. I’m now looking to diversify into other large oil companies.

Repsol tagged a rung on my ladder today, would be more than happy to see the oilies grind down a bit more and tag one more at EUR 6.38. Waiting on GBP 10.88 for RDSB.

Huge h/t to DB for educating me/us on ladders generally, feels like slowly building a position with good value, very few emotions involved.

[Donald McFlurry]

6 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Repsol tagged a rung on my ladder today, would be more than happy to see the oilies grind down a bit more and tag one more at EUR 6.38. Waiting on GBP 10.88 for RDSB.

Huge h/t to DB for educating me/us on ladders generally, feels like slowly building a position with good value, very few emotions involved.

Did the same with TEF this morning.

[DurhamBorn]

@jamtomorrow @Donald McFlurry taking emotion out of investing is probably the best thing any investor can do.Nobody does it 100%,we all wobble,but reducing it right down brings rewards over the long term.

I picked up a few mor TEF and Repsol today,bought with silver miner profits of over 100%.The market is still horrible ,and will likely remain so,but the blocks are falling into place for an industrial cycle.

As we talked about above about the Fed flattening the curve so big companies could get their debt profiles in order,in todays results Telefonica mentioned it had re-financed around 9 billion euros of debt,its interest rate was 4.96 in 15 its now 3.41 and falling,5.7 years average in 15,11.2 years today,its coupon costs down by just shy of a billion in 5 years.

Now the market doesnt like Telefonica (or other telcos) and one reason is high debt levels.However they are looking backwards as usual.Telefonica had 52 billion of debt in 16,its 37 billion today,and is falling around 7% a year.Given the fact we have 2 years before rates start to increase much its likely they can pay off all their debt over the cycle if they choose and not have to roll any over at high rates.Of course they probably will run small amounts over.

If we simply take that and no dividends i expect Telefonica to deliver 180% capital gains from here over the cycle against an inflation target of around 75%.

The profile of the rest of the telcos industry is similar.Of course diversity and a maximum sector allocation is needed in case of black swan events.

[leonardratso]

17 minutes ago, The XYY Man said:

Fuck me, you're alive....!

I haven't seen you in the Off Topic forum for a while Lenny, and had assumed you were dead.

Get back up there you cunt - your wit is wasted hiding down here with all these greedy money-grabbing bastards...

 

XYY

 

i am actually dead, im living in a hole behind a wardrobe.

Pulled the same stunt 20 years ago with a canoe and a reggie perrin type beach scenario, pissed all the insurance money away on venezuelan blow and hookers.

Just trying it again.

 

[janch]

Here is an interesting article about possible energy solutions which talks about hydrogen plus using EVs and their batteries as a giant battery.  It would appear there is a lot going on in energy developments and I suppose in time we will be able to see which technologies are the winners:

https://theconversation.com/the-uk-plans-to-build-huge-batteries-to-store-renewable-energy-but-theres-a-much-cheaper-solution-143053

[janch]

I also like this blog and one of the guys is in the energy industry and writes interesting stuff about the national grid:

http://www.cityunslicker.co.uk/

Today's article is:

Erratic Wind Power: the Great Grid Balancing Act

 

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, The XYY Man said:

Fuck me, you're alive....!

I haven't seen you in the Off Topic forum for a while Lenny, and had assumed you were dead.

Get back up there you cunt - your wit is wasted hiding down here with all these greedy money-grabbing bastards...

 

XYY

 

Yes, the only bottoms we expose down here are the bottoms of the market! :-)

[AWW]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I picked up a few mor TEF and Repsol today,bought with silver miner profits of over 100%.

Also sold my silver miners here, up a similar amount thanks to the list you published on this thread a few months ago. Noticed that goldsilver.be had stock of the kilo proof Lion Queen's Beast at a good price (not much more than half what the Royal Mint asked on release), so treated myself to a couple with the profits - one to sell, one to keep. Cheers DB.

[Popuplights]

4 hours ago, AWW said:

I'm still a whole 3% up on RDSB, but am sorely tempted to buy more at 1150, despite the fact that I'm already a tad heavy. Anyone got buy orders placed?

Lucky you. I'm 25% down on mine.

[JMD]

On 25/07/2020 at 18:31, M S E Refugee said:

A few a videos started showing up on my youtube feed for Oil Tanker stocks so I checked them out, Oil Tanker stocks seem to have a niche following. Here are more details about Frontline LTD.

https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/quote/FRO?p=FRO&.tsrc=fin-srch

I also bought Euronav but they only yield around 12%.

MSC, I just saw this video (so many of these type of commentators are crap, but he seems to be a level headed sensible guy), there is also a part one.

Interesting as he goes through his own analysis and recommends 4 stocks, all have low (and reducing) debt, fcf, etc. He selects Euronav, but doesn't choose Frontline because of high debts.

I believe shipping co's are risky, but what do others think? ...Are these a reflation play? - i.e. at these low prices, so long as they have low debt for their sector, good fundamentals, would these co's fall under the 'company with assets' category? After all, global freight will still be needed short+long term, despite the looming China trade wars risk? 

 

 

 

[Hardhat]

4 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Repsol tagged a rung on my ladder today, would be more than happy to see the oilies grind down a bit more and tag one more at EUR 6.38. Waiting on GBP 10.88 for RDSB.

Looks like you might get it...

[MrXxxx]

16 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Looks like you might get it...

Just hold tight...I have a feeling it may rally before closing and then wait on the majors reporting tomorrow.

[leonardratso]

nay, tanked, might get some after close action

[nirvana]

OIL just shit the bed, but the bounce is looking good 

Name these 3 cunts? Did their plan work?