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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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@Vendetta here's my holdings as of today.  Nothing there too unexpected to the credit deflationistas xD

I'm sure there's a very clever formula for working it out but basically I try and have a good mix without spreading my funds too thin.

holdings.PNG

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M S E Refugee

I really don't understand the love for Apple amongst the normie investors,surely when unemployment rises dramatically no one is going to buy their overpriced products.

As for the rest of the FAANG stocks they could easily be broken up under antitrust laws.

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11 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I really don't understand the love for Apple amongst the normie investors,surely when unemployment rises dramatically no one is going to buy their overpriced products.

As for the rest of the FAANG stocks they could easily be broken up under antitrust laws.

Going Long or Short...? Hmmm 🤔

QQQL X 3

High risk 6/7 stock - only Meant to be held for one day.

Up 300% since March lows....

QQQS x 3 down 90% since March.....

 

 

 

B170C04D-AC0C-4442-8975-406E14CC0262.jpeg

7362F5C1-F938-483E-BC4C-A4414137978C.jpeg

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1 hour ago, M S E Refugee said:

I really don't understand the love for Apple amongst the normie investors,surely when unemployment rises dramatically no one is going to buy their overpriced products.

As for the rest of the FAANG stocks they could easily be broken up under antitrust laws.

I remember speaking to a yank who was a day trader, used some very complex formula he had designed, and seemed to do OK.  I asked him about apple and tesla and he said that he buys them because other fools will buy them for more.

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1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

Could we see RDSB and BP sub £10 and £2.50 respectively? They look very cheap even now.

I got some RDSB for £9.78 in March. Will get more now although I do think it could well go lower (a bit).

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1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

QQQL X 3

High risk 6/7 stock - only Meant to be held for one day.

Up 300% since March lows....

QQQS x 3 down 90% since March.....

Wonder what would have happened if you paired them, both during up and down periods?

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1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

.....

How many different companies / S&S do you hold generally at any one time. I.e what do you think is a ‘good size’ for a diversified portfolio? 
.....

I run several portfolios and would aim for 25 minimum per buy and hold portfolio (value, balanced, income).  But the calculation for me is to replicate (mainly sector) ETFs where possible with a minimum of 2 to 4 per ETF so the total number is mainly dependent on the the number of sectors I want to invest in.  Trading account, whatever, subject to money management rules.

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4 hours ago, Queasing said:

True contrarian blog update 2nd Aug

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

 

This is key to me....

"The Russell 2000 is revealing the truth: following its all-time top of August 31, 2018 the Russell 2000 has made lower highs in January, February, June, and July. This means that the real U.S. stock market, not counting the biggest and most-popular names, has been in a downtrend for nearly two years".  Lyn Alden mentioned how she compares the wide market versus the high cap stocks (e.f. Russell versus S&P) to gauge things.  Clever lady!

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Democorruptcy
2 hours ago, Vendetta said:

Maybe! 
 

RDSB has a ‘Current’ dividend of 13.68% if it paid what it did last year.
 

Obviously it won’t/hasn’t  - but in 5 years time when/if dividend returns - that would be a lovely return each year. 

I find the dividend info on HL very annoying. It's complete bollocks and could dupe some novices. The most misleading bit is displaying a dividend for a company that is known to have suspended dividends. I complained to them recently and said they should display '0' or 'N/A' if dividends are suspended. They told me it would be a big change but all they have to do is mark the previous dividend as zero once a firm suspends dividends, then the interface would be 0 / share price = 0!

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Ok, please don't snigger or automatically dismiss as witchcraft(!) (btw, don't think you guys are like that) - but this is a question about the Benner cycle, based i think originally on the agricultural cycle (article link below). To be honest, cycle theory work is a bit beyond me, but many of the years do seem pretty accurate. The thing is, as the below faded historical document shows, this was published in 1875!

Extract below: Top line are crash-years, middle-line are market-high-years (is 1981 relevant?; however 1989, 1999, 2007, 2019 are - sorta - all there, at least for the macro investor they seem useful markers?)... So according to this, 2026 (approx) will be THE year to sell (divest completely/cash out)? And 2035 (approx) will be THE monetary meltdown crash?   

Benner cycle Price Earnings ratio overlay

http://silvanfrank.com/prophets-of-wall-street/

 

I'm thinking that the Benner cycle predictions appear to be in tune with this blog's cycle timing. So is this prophetical/mere confirmation bias/or a latter day 'philosophers stone'? (no, not a harry potter reference!). Economic cycle theories have been mentioned here before, but is Benner perhaps the forefather of them all? What do others think?

 

I suppose all cycle theories are easy to dismiss. However, i did see this other article, written before the December 2018 crash. It explores the application of Fibonacci numbers to the Benner cycle (work done in 1967), and where the article author at one point writes (article's own bold/exclamation): 'The Benner Fibonacci is now suggesting a High right in 2018!' 

https://iaminwallstreet.com/do-not-forget-the-benner-fibonacci-cycle/

 

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54 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I find the dividend info on HL very annoying. It's complete bollocks and could dupe some novices. The most misleading bit is displaying a dividend for a company that is known to have suspended dividends. I complained to them recently and said they should display '0' or 'N/A' if dividends are suspended. They told me it would be a big change but all they have to do is mark the previous dividend as zero once a firm suspends dividends, then the interface would be 0 / share price = 0!

Democorruptcy, yes i agree. I think this and your earlier posts about the woeful 'average share price info.' shows up just how casual - and irreverent toward their own customers - these financial platforms really are.

On a related note, does anyone know what these trading platforms do with the data they have about our trades? i.e. are they allowed to process/analyse it? I know we now have European data protection laws in place, but can't help thinking about the many millions of trades, etc, and how this is very valuable data for these platforms, i.e. do they use it/sell it to others to aid hedge funds or others in taking up the other side of the trade, shorting, etc? So even if data was sold on 'anonymised', wouldn't this still represent a form of insider dealing? 

It's just that i've not heard this aspect discussed, and don't remember any mention about this concerning the financial trading sector when the new privacy laws were being enacted. Although there was lots of talk, for example, about marketing data, and NHS data, etc.

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, M S E Refugee said:

I really don't understand the love for Apple amongst the normie investors,surely when unemployment rises dramatically no one is going to buy their overpriced products.

As for the rest of the FAANG stocks they could easily be broken up under antitrust laws.

I agree, i think they will be broken up. The US has a history of doing this type of thing.

Peter Thiel (paypal) says many interesting things about the tech sector. In fact i think he has many interesting views and ideas about our future in general, and well worth watching his other You Tube videos.

 

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Democorruptcy
28 minutes ago, JMD said:

Democorruptcy, yes i agree. I think this and your earlier posts about the woeful 'average share price info.' shows up just how casual - and irreverent toward their own customers - these financial platforms really are.

On a related note, does anyone know what these trading platforms do with the data they have about our trades? i.e. are they allowed to process/analyse it? I know we now have European data protection laws in place, but can't help thinking about the many millions of trades, etc, and how this is very valuable data for these platforms, i.e. do they use it/sell it to others to aid hedge funds or others in taking up the other side of the trade, shorting, etc? So even if data was sold on 'anonymised', wouldn't this still represent a form of insider dealing? 

It's just that i've not heard this aspect discussed, and don't remember any mention about this concerning the financial trading sector when the new privacy laws were being enacted. Although there was lots of talk, for example, about marketing data, and NHS data, etc.

They probably gave some your reflation share purchases to stand up comedians - but I'm hoping you have the last laugh xD

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2 hours ago, Harley said:

I run several portfolios and would aim for 25 minimum per buy and hold portfolio (value, balanced, income).  But the calculation for me is to replicate (mainly sector) ETFs where possible with a minimum of 2 to 4 per ETF so the total number is mainly dependent on the the number of sectors I want to invest in.  Trading account, whatever, subject to money management rules.

Harley, identifying 2-4 stocks in place of holding an etf/fund sector is definitely an interesting strategy. Particularly effective i think if using a 'value' approach, as many etf/funds generally hold too many growth stocks. I will continue a hybrid of stocks/funds/etf's because i unfortunately haven't the skills to select an all stock approach.  

Perhaps you might remember a discussion we had last year about there not being any good semi-conductor etf's? Well i still can't find any good ones. So for this sector i am instead looking for some individual companies. Harley, i wonder if semi-conductors are one of your chosen sectors would you care to share which stocks you are buying/looking at? In return i can only offer a single potential one of SkyWorks - have you heard of it?, it's a US company with no debt(!), so would be interested in your analysis if you have time to look at its fundamentals. It is currently expensive, but i plan to buy if it falls below $100.  

 

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Transistor Man
29 minutes ago, JMD said:

In return i can only offer a single potential one of SkyWorks - have you heard of it?, it's a US company with no debt(!), so would be interested in your analysis if you have time to look at its fundamentals.

 

Jumping in, I know SkyWorks and what they do. I would guess they’ll do very well with their 5g portfolio, rf passives, filters, front-ends. 

But, it’s competitive. They are very reliant on what Apple decide to do, and that can go both ways. 

 

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3 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

I find the dividend info on HL very annoying. It's complete bollocks and could dupe some novices. The most misleading bit is displaying a dividend for a company that is known to have suspended dividends. I complained to them recently and said they should display '0' or 'N/A' if dividends are suspended. They told me it would be a big change but all they have to do is mark the previous dividend as zero once a firm suspends dividends, then the interface would be 0 / share price = 0!

Torn my hair out of the div yield data (and some others).  Each source shows a different figure and I've wasted much time trying to reverse engineer how they derived their figures.  I like dividenddata.co.uk because they show the calculation but they only do it for the FTSE250 up.

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jamtomorrow
4 minutes ago, Harley said:

Torn my hair out of the div yield data (and some others).  Each source shows a different figure and I've wasted much time trying to reverse engineer how they derived their figures.  I like dividenddata.co.uk because they show the calculation but they only do it for the FTSE250 up.

Glad it's not just me. I ended up pulling divi data myself from investor relations on each companies corp site, every other source I looked at was contradictory, or confusing/unclear, or had omissions, or obvious errors.

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Castlevania

The HL dividend data for U.K. stocks is good in my opinion. Just ignore the dividend yield figures and go to the actual dividend page and you’ll have details of how much, ex div date and payment date going back five years.

Here’s RDSB’s dividend page. Clear, concise, informative.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-dutch-shell-plc-b-shares-eur0.07/dividends

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1 hour ago, JMD said:

Perhaps you might remember a discussion we had last year about there not being any good semi-conductor etf's? Well i still can't find any good ones. So for this sector i am instead looking for some individual companies. Harley, i wonder if semi-conductors are one of your chosen sectors would you care to share which stocks you are buying/looking at? In return i can only offer a single potential one of SkyWorks - have you heard of it?, it's a US company with no debt(!), so would be interested in your analysis if you have time to look at its fundamentals. It is currently expensive, but i plan to buy if it falls below $100.  

Not atm.  I would start with the efts that are available and look at their bigger holdings on a fundamental basis.  If I do I'll post.  SkyWorks, no debt (versus industry average of 46% to equity ration), wow!  But does carry a fair bit of "Other Liabilities".  The other solvency ratios (e.g. Quick Ratio) blow the industry averages out of the water too.  Has not amortised goodwill?  Been undertaking a $lot of share buy backs in the last few years with it's large cash balance.  Number 19 in the US on market cap out of 152 so not tier 1 but in this sector I'd dig into what products and sectors it covers (it sounds interesting) as "Semiconductors" is a bit of a rag bag.  Positive cash flow for the last four years.  Wonder what the $719m "Other Investing Cash Flow Items" in 2018 was spent on.  Acquisition?  In which case where's the subsequent cash flow?  Yeh, the share price has run ahead.  $100 would be quite a fall, but you never know these days!  Please shout if it happens! :)

 

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Democorruptcy
51 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

The HL dividend data for U.K. stocks is good in my opinion. Just ignore the dividend yield figures and go to the actual dividend page and you’ll have details of how much, ex div date and payment date going back five years.

Here’s RDSB’s dividend page. Clear, concise, informative.

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/royal-dutch-shell-plc-b-shares-eur0.07/dividends

There are some inconsistencies on those pages at times.

Looking at an old favourite https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/c/centrica-plc-ord-6,1481p/dividends

On the Overview for 2019 the Interim is 1.50p, Final Dividend is "-" Total Dividend is "-", surely the Total should be 1.50p? A novice might think the Final was still coming looking at previous years. Also that 1.50p is missing on the Full Dividend Breakdown  which hasn't been updated since 2018!

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21 hours ago, christh said:

Hi guys. Longtime lurker, etc. etc. I listened to some of Gregory Copley's stuff this morning and was completely blown away - thank you so much for drawing this to my attention, DB. Managed to track down a place to buy his book - in eBook form at least:

https://www.strategicstudies.org/ISSA Store.htm#!/The-New-Total-War-of-the-21st-Century-PDF-ebook/p/206749218/category=0

(sorry Spunko, my first post after you approve me and it has a link in it - bloody spammers ;) )

Your welcome,its by an expert on the subject and one of the big drivers of the industrial cycle ahead.

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22 hours ago, christh said:

Hi guys. Longtime lurker, etc. etc. I listened to some of Gregory Copley's stuff this morning and was completely blown away - thank you so much for drawing this to my attention, DB. Managed to track down a place to buy his book - in eBook form at least:

https://www.strategicstudies.org/ISSA Store.htm#!/The-New-Total-War-of-the-21st-Century-PDF-ebook/p/206749218/category=0

(sorry Spunko, my first post after you approve me and it has a link in it - bloody spammers ;) )

Christ H?  Where's the Jesus??

Welcome to DOSBODS by the way.

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12 hours ago, Queasing said:

True contrarian blog update 2nd Aug

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

 

Interesting that he seems to think that nobody is calling for or expecting a gold pull back. On the contrary, I would say that most people who matter (i.e. people who've been watching gold for decades) would entirely expect a pull back. Wouldn't surprise me at all.

Possibly the more contrarian position is to call for no pull-back. This would catch out far more people, and leave those waiting for lower prices in the dust.

In any event, I certainly wouldn't bother selling gdx or gdxj. Presumably he is a trader. Otherwise, it's all just noise. Gold is still going to $10000+ (probably more like $15000), so bickering about whether it pulls back to $1500, $1700 or even $1200 just seems pointless.

It's the same pointless discussion that people have been having since 2000 - arguing about pull backs, when they should have just been buying regularly and ignoring the noise. This still applies. Gold is still massively cheap and would be even at higher prices than now.

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