Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Bandit Banzai]

Well you would have to say the Dollar looks very over-sold http://schrts.co/wVefyWpZ

Gold COT doesn't look too bad though: https://snalaska.us/cot/current/charts/GC.png

Trying to time it the way the chart is now looks impossible. People will do it and claim they got it right, but not many will.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Errol said:

Interesting that he seems to think that nobody is calling for or expecting a gold pull back. On the contrary, I would say that most people who matter (i.e. people who've been watching gold for decades) would entirely expect a pull back. Wouldn't surprise me at all.

Gold in USD has been rising on a falling USD.  Plus it is completing a triangle chart pattern (in USD) in the intraday which precedes a break, normally to the upside but not always!  Could be one of those times we see a breakdown.  Plus also a pullback is expected in the longer tern cup and handle pattern.  Plus, soon will hit and run the $2k.  Should know soon.  Hope it falls so I can load up on physical.

[Loki]

I'm still hoping David Hunter was right...Labor Day draws ever closer (although he does say he doesn't do timing, but put that out as a possible deadline)

[DurhamBorn]

http://investors.mosaicco.com/Cache/IRCache/88748048-2200-e936-7c8f-e5382241051f.PDF?O=PDF&T=&Y=&D=&FID=88748048-2200-e936-7c8f-e5382241051f&iid=4097833

Mosaic's results,as expected inflation is now entering the sector,hopefully we might now see a big run up in the stocks.

"Tighter global market than what many analysts and buyers were expecting"

Well macro strategists spotted it 

If flooding continues in China we might get a perfect storm in the sector.

These are lead indicators,inflation is about to unleash across the primary producers as demand pull forces up prices.It wont take much for some of that Fed money being forced into the longer end of the curve to break loose and boot this reflation in high gear.

Silver first,is potash next for us?

 

[Loki]

5 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

If flooding continues in China we might get a perfect storm in the sector.

Do you mean because crops will need to be grown elsewhere? I don't know how much China exports as they have a billion people to feed.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Watch what they do, not what they say....

 

Delivered just as prices are moving into high gear,im hoping the sector can stay down a bit longer so i can add some more.Shell will go to new highs in the cycle,probably by a long way.That will shock everyone especially the dopey funds dumping inflation stocks at the start of an industrial cycle.

[DurhamBorn]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Do you mean because crops will need to be grown elsewhere? I don't know how much China exports as they have a billion people to feed.

Their potash mines are along the Yangtze,their stocks are getting low,means less exports and more imports.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Their potash mines are along the Yangtze,their stocks are getting low,means less exports and more imports.

Great info thanks.  How do you know this stuff?

[JMD]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

Not atm.  I would start with the efts that are available and look at their bigger holdings on a fundamental basis.  If I do I'll post.  SkyWorks, no debt (versus industry average of 46% to equity ration), wow!  But does carry a fair bit of "Other Liabilities".  The other solvency ratios (e.g. Quick Ratio) blow the industry averages out of the water too.  Has not amortised goodwill?  Been undertaking a $lot of share buy backs in the last few years with it's large cash balance.  Number 19 in the US on market cap out of 152 so not tier 1 but in this sector I'd dig into what products and sectors it covers (it sounds interesting) as "Semiconductors" is a bit of a rag bag.  Positive cash flow for the last four years.  Wonder what the $719m "Other Investing Cash Flow Items" in 2018 was spent on.  Acquisition?  In which case where's the subsequent cash flow?  Yeh, the share price has run ahead.  $100 would be quite a fall, but you never know these days!  Please shout if it happens!

 

Thanks Harley, yes they have made acquisitions over recent years and done share buybacks, but refreshingly all funded by profits. Though they don't buy at any price, sometimes allowing themselves to be outbid, so they appear to have good conservative management. My buy price is low but it will become part of my watch list and am anticipating another market correction buying opportunity. 

[Castlevania]

BP have cut their dividend in half

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN2500L9

That’s not as bad as I expected

[CVG]

,,,

[CVG]

29 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

BP have cut their dividend in half

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUKKCN2500L9

That’s not as bad as I expected

So still about 6.5-7%. Crazy.

[headrow]

I was saving a chunk of cash to add more BP but i expect the price will rise today after them results even though the dividend was cut in half.

 

[MrXxxx]

18 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

They probably gave some your reflation share purchases to stand up comedians - but I'm hoping you have the last laugh

I think there is an Anton Kruul video about this on YouTube, they use it to trade against you.

[MrXxxx]

16 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

Jumping in, I know SkyWorks and what they do. I would guess they’ll do very well with their 5g portfolio, rf passives, filters, front-ends. 

But, it’s competitive. They are very reliant on what Apple decide to do, and that can go both ways. 

 

This is what I like about this thread/forum, full of individual specialist that are bonded by a common interest....I have learnt so much (not just financial) outside my usual sphere, its like those `chance` conversations you occasionally have with someone in  pub.

[Jesus Wept]

53 minutes ago, headrow said:

I was saving a chunk of cash to add more BP but i expect the price will rise today after them results even though the dividend was cut in half.

 

Yep - up 6.0% at one point this morning. Taking RDSB and the market as a whole with it.

Slowly slowly catchee monkee. When the NASDAQ collapses (hit a new all time high yesterday 10,902 pts) it will take everything with it.... including oils, telcos, potash, the lot....

I am sitting on the sidelines now building cash. 

Our time will come.

I still have not opened up my NAS leveraged x3 short yet - I reckon 11,000pts is a nice round number. In the year 2000 It was at 5000pts that the tipping point came:

“Between 1995 and its peak in March 2000, the Nasdaq Composite stock market index rose 400%, only to fall 78% from its peak by October 2002, giving up all its gains during the bubble“.

The US election is the key I think. 

What effect another 4 years of Trump.... or a new Democrat Government ....? 

[nirvana]

1 minute ago, Vendetta said:

When the NASDAQ collapses

it's going to 20k.....the FED have said they'll buy everything including junk bonds.......and the Robintard Army is on the march....

 

[Jesus Wept]

5 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

it's going to 20k.....the FED have said they'll buy everything including junk bonds.......and the Robintard Army is on the march....

 

😂

Remember back in Aug 2007 stocks were falling and the FED intervened and propped up the market....

They did and stocks rallied to a new high (Oct 07).  Everyone said the Fed was genius.

A year later stocks were down more than 50%.

It’s such a liquid market that turns on the touch of a screen..... so volatile. Once sentiment changes ..... boom....  the Robinhoods won’t be able to get out the door quick enough...... 

A major dose of pain coming. 
 

Everything will be sold off to cover margins and once bad debt starts coming home to roost.... it’s not going to be pretty.

Inflation will come but I reckon a year or two away at least....

[nirvana]

5 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

Remember back in Aug 2007 stocks were falling and the FED intervened and propped up the market....

They did and stocks rallied to a new high (Oct 07).  Everyone said the Fed was genius.

A year later stocks were down more than 50%.

Sure then they printed even more and saved the world! Just like they're doing now.....

EVERY dip have been bought since March....it's all in the charts, don't need a crystal ball 

[nirvana]

fkin hell I'm in profit with BP!!!

COME ON BUY THE FUCKING DIPS!!!!

[nirvana]

BT!!!!! Making £££££££££ - buy the dips!!!!! 

[Loki]

26 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

When the NASDAQ collapses (hit a new all time high yesterday 10,902 pts) it will take everything with it.... including oils, telcos, potash, the lot....

I am sitting on the sidelines now building cash. 

Our time will come.

So you are more in favour of a timing approach rather than sector rotation?  Can you give any more details as I am interested.  (I just sold HOC as it goes, up by a quarter and with no more to give for now it seems)

As I read your post I was deliberating over splitting it between RDSB and REP (Got enough in BP for now)

[nirvana]

Right chaps off to find some hookers n blow with all the ££££££ I've made today  Have fun!!!

[Talking Monkey]

11 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Their potash mines are along the Yangtze,their stocks are getting low,means less exports and more imports.

On Potash miners DB I have Nutrien, Mosaic, OCI, KS all in roughly equal amounts and then a little bit of Intrepid. Any other names worth looking at. 

 

[Talking Monkey]

1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

Yep - up 6.0% at one point this morning. Taking RDSB and the market as a whole with it.

Slowly slowly catchee monkee. When the NASDAQ collapses (hit a new all time high yesterday 10,902 pts) it will take everything with it.... including oils, telcos, potash, the lot....

I am sitting on the sidelines now building cash. 

Our time will come.

I still have not opened up my NAS leveraged x3 short yet - I reckon 11,000pts is a nice round number. In the year 2000 It was at 5000pts that the tipping point came:

“Between 1995 and its peak in March 2000, the Nasdaq Composite stock market index rose 400%, only to fall 78% from its peak by October 2002, giving up all its gains during the bubble“.

The US election is the key I think. 

What effect another 4 years of Trump.... or a new Democrat Government ....? 

V on a leveraged short don't those things have huge costs if held for more than a very short period,