Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Loki said:

So you are more in favour of a timing approach rather than sector rotation?  Can you give any more details as I am interested.  (I just sold HOC as it goes, up by a quarter and with no more to give for now it seems)

As I read your post I was deliberating over splitting it between RDSB and REP (Got enough in BP for now)

I just do what Durham Born says! 😂😂😂

All jokes aside first and foremost I take a timing approach.

Obviously ....

”Buy on the 15-20% + market crashes”. 

Harder to do than to say it.

Bought my first shares since 97-00 in the last 2 weeks of March when everyone headed for the door (perfect tax timing for ISAs) as well. Missed out on 2007/8 crash - as all liquidity went into family home. 

Continues to ‘buy on the dips’ as @5min OCD speculator says - however must be in the right sectors. 

As @DurhamBorn says “in the key cyclical sectors.... oils, potash, telcos, GSMs” 

The key driver is how much cash I have. There is nothing worse than seeing a major correction and not having the ‘liquidity’ to take advantage.

(edited to add: or room left in your ISA tax shelters etc).

I think the NASDAQ is hugely overbought. It’s a ‘brave’ but more ‘foolish’ man that will buy now.
 

Who will be the ‘final fool’??

If it was not for the NASDAQ TECH bubble (and my lack of cash!)  I’d be adding to my POTs (potash, oil and Telcos) bought since March 20’-  which cyclically still look very good value.

However I think there will be a further low in the next 3 months (caused by a whole market sell off after the NAS bubble pops).

The POT sectors will take a discounted hit as well - by which time I will have more liquidity - and if/when the markets crashes I will pick up more POTs and a tranche of miners as well and may add to my gold and silver. 

I will continue to take profits on my higher risk investments - and with those profits continue to buy the big dividend paying companies (again P, O, T s for now) - so hopefully long term will have a dividend income that shields against inflation.

I think if I stick to companies that actually dig wealth out of the ground (P, O, Miners) or a Tech service that everyone uses (telcos) I cant go to far wrong? 

Last caveat - don’t take my advice. I have a huge amount to learn - and have learnt more off you and DB and the others here than I could imagine.

25 years ago I borrowed money off the bank to invest in Cambridge Antibody Technology and Gold miners (told them it was for a car!)  - it’s amazing when you are single and skint your appetite for risk is much greater. 


My goal:

To achieve 5%+ in capital growth (over inflation) per year plus an income from dividends each year for the next 30 years (to supplement a pension from 2030) I would be a very happy man. Is that realistic? 
 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
31 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

On Potash miners DB I have Nutrien, Mosaic, OCI, KS all in roughly equal amounts and then a little bit of Intrepid. Any other names worth looking at. 

 

@Talking Monkey

Any use to you? 
 

I hold Mos, Nutrien and SDF.

I like look of UAN - up 11% at latest close. All time high is a 1000%+ from where it is today.

B1047F72-75E6-40F8-B890-02CE079D2400.jpeg

D2D260D2-76F0-4A32-86C7-98C72BF737A0.jpeg

A604FEEF-DA5A-4F80-B4DD-E641564CE64B.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

The key driver is how much cash I have. There is nothing worse than seeing a major correction and not having the ‘liquidity’ to take advantage.

I agree completely, this is the position I am in!  Although I am happy to sit in BP etc for as long as it takes, I am happier taking profits from more volatile stocks (Like HOC) Although as we chatted about earlier up thread, I don't do it too often and due to the small sums I have, I tend to just sell an entire holding.  (Although I did top slice RRE as I didn't begrudge the fees after a 60% gain xD)

Edit: Just topped up my REP holding. 

 

11 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

My goal:

To achieve 5%+ in capital growth (over inflation) per year plus an income from dividends each year for the next 30 years (to supplement a pension from 2030) I would be a very happy man. Is that realistic?

Sounds not only realistic but a moderate goal that won't see you making too many/any risky calls

Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

V on a leveraged short don't those things have huge costs if held for more than a very short period, 

@Talking Monkey

Yep - definitely hold for no longer than 2-3 days and only if market is falling every day. 
 

“in and out” where you can.

This is the first rise (albeit small) on the short in a long time. 

I am starting to think the better choice is to put the few £K I’d planned to put into this into POTs instead -  after if/when the big sell off comes.

Far too fucking risky as you say.
 

Money would be better spent going long after the next  crash (if it ever comes). 
Also I’d lose some of my ISA allowance for the year.

However a part of me would love to do THE BIG SHORT! 😉 🐻 

8E7C0CAD-B30A-4763-B0B7-79A786C702E5.jpeg

DDD64D41-0D06-430E-8BA6-68E7730635F0.jpeg

3B3B93F7-12A3-4C3F-87A3-A8F0852C90DE.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

On 03/08/2020 at 09:45, CVG said:

Maybe you changed your mind after just watching me but some BP, RDSB, VOD (and BT) today!

@CVG

Nice one. 

We may look back at the 3rd of August as the ‘second bite of the cherry’ for the Ollies - after the March lows.

BP at £2.74 yesterday - tally ho! 

BP up 8% by 10am today - nice if you got it. 

Maybe I should have (should) changed my mind....

🍻

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Vendetta said:

The key driver is how much cash I have. There is nothing worse than seeing a major correction and not having the ‘liquidity’ to take advantage.

True. And that's why cash is NOT trash.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

jamtomorrow

Aside from mechanically acquiring a few targets based on ladders I set 3 months ago, I'm inclined to sit this one out until the liquidity shock created by the CBs meets the bulk of the solvency shock coming back up "the pipes" from the other direction.

Only thing that would change my mind is a clear signal that something more predictable - and therefore "tradeable" to a simpleton lazy-arse investor like me - is on the cards than general crashing of waves and pandemonium.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, jamtomorrow said:

Aside from mechanically acquiring a few targets based on ladders I set 3 months ago, I'm inclined to sit this one out until the liquidity shock created by the CBs meets the bulk of the solvency shock coming back up "the pipes" from the other direction.

Only thing that would change my mind is a clear signal that something more predictable - and therefore "tradeable" to a simpleton lazy-arse investor like me - is on the cards than general crashing of waves and pandemonium.

Good way of looking at it 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, CVG said:

True. And that's why cash is NOT trash.


I agree - in the short term.

It is if you hold it for any length of time.

Dash for assets from 2021-2030 coming.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Vendetta said:


I agree - in the short term.

It is if you hold it for any length of time.

Dash for assets from 2021-2030 coming.

Always keep around 20% in cash. You never know when the next opportunity will present itself. And you can always mitigate the worst of the trash part by putting it in premium bonds and notice accounts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Talking Monkey
1 hour ago, Vendetta said:

@Talking Monkey

Yep - definitely hold for no longer than 2-3 days and only if market is falling every day. 
 

“in and out” where you can.

This is the first rise (albeit small) on the short in a long time. 

I am starting to think the better choice is to put the few £K I’d planned to put into this into POTs instead -  after if/when the big sell off comes.

Far too fucking risky as you say.
 

Money would be better spent going long after the next  crash (if it ever comes). 
Also I’d lose some of my ISA allowance for the year.

However a part of me would love to do THE BIG SHORT! 😉 🐻 

8E7C0CAD-B30A-4763-B0B7-79A786C702E5.jpeg

DDD64D41-0D06-430E-8BA6-68E7730635F0.jpeg

3B3B93F7-12A3-4C3F-87A3-A8F0852C90DE.jpeg

I think a huge sell off will eventually come but shorting that as you say is risky if the timing is wrong. The alternative strategy to allocate that cash to buying reflation stocks sounds eminently sensible. Personally I don't see the Nasdaq on the brink of a huge down move at the moment and would be surprised if it does -20% this side of the US election.

An alternative to the leveraged ETF short maybe to short via spreadbet, both have pros and cons I suppose

If there was a no leverage short Nasdaq ETF through HL I would defo have a go at that at some point

 

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Sold out of HOCM today at +55% - hadn't gone anywhere for a week or so and I want to lock in some silver profits.

Holding FRES - currently up 66% - in case silver runs further. But will look to take profits in this also in the near future.

GDX / GDXJ up 55% each but these are long term holds - will add on a pullback.

BP has had a nice rally - what do people think about buying at the current price?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DownwardSpiral
3 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Sold out of HOCM today at +55% - hadn't gone anywhere for a week or so and I want to lock in some silver profits.

Holding FRES - currently up 66% - in case silver runs further. But will look to take profits in this also in the near future.

GDX / GDXJ up 55% each but these are long term holds - will add on a pullback.

BP has had a nice rally - what do people think about buying at the current price?

I am happy to sit through any pullback with GDXJ, might slice a little off if it adds another 25% from here, but in the grand scheme of things I don’t see the hassle of timing a pullback as worth it. Same as you, will probably just add more at that point.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thought this was a good chat to reflect on where we are at, helped me tie together the unexpected rise in bonds to come that will cause the trading bots to reverse course and auto-sell stocks indiscriminately, taking out all the Robinhoods as is a GFC event x3 in the next 60 days...also gold to pull back 30% before shooting ever higher

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

reformed nice guy

Here are my current buy points if anyone is interested.

A lot of them are very low and would require significant falls before I would buy in. Some are shares I currently own and want to top up (Fanuc, BP, Shell etc), while others are ones I do not own but think have longer term value at the right price (Alphabet, amazon, SAP, visa etc)

Just putting out ideas, might be completely wrong!

Alphabet google 1200
amazon tech 1500
Angloamerican mining 1000
ANTOFAGASTA HOLDINGS mining 600
Baidu chintech 85
Basf SE chem €45
BHP group mining 1200
BP oil 250
British American Tobacco fags 2000
BROOKFIELD ASSET MNGT renewabl 40
BT telecoms 85
Caterpillar Inc industry 80
Centrica energy 25
Chevron oil $80
conocophillips oil $37.5
Dow chems $25
Drax   140
Equinor oil 120NOK
Evonik chems €17.5
EVRAZ PLC steel 130
Exxon oil $40
Fanuc robots 16000
     
Gazprom oil $4.5
Glencore mining 120
IMPERIAL BRANDS GROUP fags 1100
Johnson Matthey chem 1700
JD.com chintech 45
K & S AG chem €5
Kaz mining 300
Mastercard finance $250
Microsoft tech $150
Mosaic potash $10
Nutrien potash $42
Petroleo Brasileiro oil $6
Repsol oil €6.5
Rio Tinto mining 3250
RoyalMail logistics 110
SAP tech 100
Schlumberger oil 15
SSE energy 1000
Shell oil 1000
Siemens   €80
Solvay chems €63
Telefonica telecoms €3.5
Telia telecoms 28 SEK
Tencent tech $50
TSMC tech 50
UNILEVER consumer 3000
Visa finance $160
Vodafone telecoms 100
Yara chems 300nok
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Castlevania
34 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Here are my current buy points if anyone is interested.

A lot of them are very low and would require significant falls before I would buy in. Some are shares I currently own and want to top up (Fanuc, BP, Shell etc), while others are ones I do not own but think have longer term value at the right price (Alphabet, amazon, SAP, visa etc)

Just putting out ideas, might be completely wrong!

Alphabet google 1200
amazon tech 1500
Angloamerican mining 1000
ANTOFAGASTA HOLDINGS mining 600
Baidu chintech 85
Basf SE chem €45
BHP group mining 1200
BP oil 250
British American Tobacco fags 2000
BROOKFIELD ASSET MNGT renewabl 40
BT telecoms 85
Caterpillar Inc industry 80
Centrica energy 25
Chevron oil $80
conocophillips oil $37.5
Dow chems $25
Drax   140
Equinor oil 120NOK
Evonik chems €17.5
EVRAZ PLC steel 130
Exxon oil $40
Fanuc robots 16000
     
Gazprom oil $4.5
Glencore mining 120
IMPERIAL BRANDS GROUP fags 1100
Johnson Matthey chem 1700
JD.com chintech 45
K & S AG chem €5
Kaz mining 300
Mastercard finance $250
Microsoft tech $150
Mosaic potash $10
Nutrien potash $42
Petroleo Brasileiro oil $6
Repsol oil €6.5
Rio Tinto mining 3250
RoyalMail logistics 110
SAP tech 100
Schlumberger oil 15
SSE energy 1000
Shell oil 1000
Siemens   €80
Solvay chems €63
Telefonica telecoms €3.5
Telia telecoms 28 SEK
Tencent tech $50
TSMC tech 50
UNILEVER consumer 3000
Visa finance $160
Vodafone telecoms 100
Yara chems 300nok

Some of those (e.g. ConocoPhillips) are below your buy price?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Talking Monkey said:

On Potash miners DB I have Nutrien, Mosaic, OCI, KS all in roughly equal amounts and then a little bit of Intrepid. Any other names worth looking at. 

 

Look good there,i have Mosaic and Nutrien much bigger holdings than the others,i like Nutrien for its agro business as well,and probably wont sell them even if potash runs hard.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Sugarlips said:

Thought this was a good chat to reflect on where we are at, helped me tie together the unexpected rise in bonds to come that will cause the trading bots to reverse course and auto-sell stocks indiscriminately, taking out all the Robinhoods as is a GFC event x3 in the next 60 days...also gold to pull back 30% before shooting ever higher

 

This is a great video, don't scroll past!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BP strategy looks decent to me and i like the way they are going to use free cash to buy back stock once debts are at 35bill.Thats stops them spunking it all away.Lots wont like the divi cut,but as well all got at todays price and below we are looking at around 5.5% yield.Im aiming for 6.5%pa return over the cycle,and i think BP might buy back £3.00+s worth of shares minimum over the cycle.I think £7.00+ is very likely as a target,£10+ possible by 2028/30 

They said the divi would be set,but i think by 2024/25 they will be starting to produce that much cash that they wont do all share buy backs and the divi will increase.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

35 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Look good there,i have Mosaic and Nutrien much bigger holdings than the others,i like Nutrien for its agro business as well,and probably wont sell them even if potash runs hard.

 MOS just up 15.0% 😳

Nutrien 5%

Start of a Potash breakout...? 🤔
 

Mosaic (MOS) – Mosaic earned 11 cents per share for its latest quarter, compared to analysts' expectations of a 1 cent per share loss. The fertilizer producer's revenue also topped estimates, with a global emphasis on agriculture and food security limiting any Covid-19 related impact on its business.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 hours ago, Loki said:

........due to the small sums I have, I tend to just sell an entire holding. 

This is me also!  I just sold FRES and SLP (Sylvania Platinum) and HOC is next.  AJ Bell have an offer of no selling fees from 3 - 14 August so as I was about to sell anyway I'm taking advantage of the offer.  I would prefer to top-slice but funds don't allow this approach (yet!). 

I didn't have enough spare cash in March to go on a buying spree but am poised ready for the next dip...........

Link to comment
Share on other sites

leonardratso
2 minutes ago, janch said:

This is me also!  I just sold FRES and SLP (Sylvania Platinum) and HOC is next.  AJ Bell have an offer of no selling fees from 3 - 14 August so as I was about to sell anyway I'm taking advantage of the offer.  I would prefer to top-slice but funds don't allow this approach (yet!). 

I didn't have enough spare cash in March to go on a buying spree but am poised ready for the next dip...........

dont they? im able to sell units of vanguard and fundsmith, plus stuff like baglar/braahn from lloyds (rebadged halifax), so effectively top slicing them.

Do the same with vopzh and merian swerso [gold/silver], maybe your funds are different.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...