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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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1 minute ago, Hardhat said:

Well I sold HOC at the wrong time xD

Balancing caution and greed is definitely the key when taking profits though, so no regrets. It was still up 55%.

Don't worry I sold yesterday too, and wasn't up by over half!

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M S E Refugee

I took a profit from Fresnillo and bought some Tritax Big Box Reit and added to my Euronav position.

Euronav are buying back their Stock at a rate of knots and should announce a big fat dividend this month.

I will look to buy Fresnillo again when the Silver price corrects.

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Well my little learner portfolio rag-bag of Aussie minnows had an explosive day.

IVR (ASX) up 48% wtf?! SVL is up 20% again, a shame I only put a few $K in but it's a nice feeling that I might actually be learning something hanging out here rather than on the Volkswagen thread thanks for my induction 👍 

Now nibbling into the little potash co's: KLL, APC, SO4 - fingers x'd.

Learned heaps this last year. I'm yet to think about how best to crystallise the wins but that's a nice problem to have for now ie I'm sure I'll be giving it all back at some point!

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Well the reason silver exploded yesterday was obviously because I sold FRES:D.  I kept HOC and I also have some PHSP (WISE META/ETFS PHYSICAL SILVER) (Wisdom Tree) so all is not lost.

If it's any consolation to @BurntBread I'm yet to break even on the portfolio.  Like you I'm keeping all the losers (all reflation stocks) as in the long run they should come good.  I bought most of them last year and only one tranche of each so March was not a good time for them and I didn't have the spare cash to add during the rout.

I have a very simple method to calculate the profit/loss which was discussed a few pages back.  I know how much I've put in overall (and it's a nice round sum) so any profit/loss is a percentage of that and I ignore any figures on the broker's website. I keep all the divis in the account and any profits from the few sales I've done.

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28 minutes ago, janch said:

Well the reason silver exploded yesterday was obviously because I sold FRES:D.  I kept HOC and I also have some PHSP (WISE META/ETFS PHYSICAL SILVER) (Wisdom Tree) so all is not lost.

In the same boat, I made some top slices this week after reviewing my sector allocations and there goes silver/silver miners and GDX/GDXJ on a mini rip. Still hold some and I'll sleep better at night with some cash.

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Mosaic up over 100% now as well from March buy prices.DRAX more than doubled,im not sure why BP hasnt launched a bid for them,though maybe they fancy carbon capture on Teesside  and are leaving the Humber to Equinor.Playtech more than doubled and great update today.Telcos are bumping along with some small losses and small profits.The pleasing part is the profits from 2 silver miners has made up for every stocks thats in the red.Big oil is lagging a bit,but no problem at all with that.The market is trying to work out what they are worth now BP has laid its cards out.The market is trying to price things off $50 average Brent though when the cycle will see a much higher average .

Fed and other CBs are still engaged so we should see a dash to real assets start develop with lots of nasty pull backs along the way.

All things considered we have had a fantastic crisis.I might even buy myself a new car,well a 4 year old one,in 3 months of course,leads and lags)

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Well I became a Covid economic statistic yesterday, although they did give me almost a full month's notice, which is quite nice for a contract.  Am now out of 3SIL and the silver miners and have offloaded more than half of my physical silver on eBay while there's a final value fee offer on, for a nice profit considering I only held it for a fortnight :-)

Will look to buy more physical on a pullback from what looks to me to be an unsustainable move.

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Noallegiance
52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

 

All things considered we have had a fantastic crisis.I might even buy myself a new car,well a 4 year old one,in 3 months of course,leads and lags)

We're trying to keep our 14 year old car on the road until early 2021. There'll be bargains to be had, for sure.

For the first time in my life I may be able to genuinely afford a youngish motor.

Honda CRV has my eyes.

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13 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

Honda CRV has my eyes

I've had a few of them , lardy sh!te :P the 4wd is shite as well, the ex got it stuck in the snow a few times......probably something to do with 19" alloys and road tyres....

I actually prefered a C4 Cactus, light and nimble and if you get the right colour combo with dark wheels they look cool too methinks

disclaimer: I'm more biased towards French things than ever nowadays but also towards lightweight, check out the weight of a cactus ie circa 1100kg vs a 1600kg CRV then compare the power to weight ratio and you'll realise that 'paper bhp' is only half the story

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I can't quite believe what my various bullionvault accounts are telling me (invested via SIPP, via business and personally). I'm sure I should partially cash out and take some profits but I may not because:

1.  I'm a lazy investor.

2.  I'm in it for the long haul (ie 5 to 8 years) and therefore shouldn't be concerned about initial ups and downs.

3.  I would worry about the ability to buy back large amounts in a bust. 

I've not sold a single stock or PM holding in the last two years, only been buying. I still have spare cash and might hold this and buy if there is a second shoe drop.

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Noallegiance
55 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

I've had a few of them , lardy sh!te :P the 4wd is shite as well, the ex got it stuck in the snow a few times......probably something to do with 19" alloys and road tyres....

I actually prefered a C4 Cactus, light and nimble and if you get the right colour combo with dark wheels they look cool too methinks

disclaimer: I'm more biased towards French things than ever nowadays but also towards lightweight, check out the weight of a cactus ie circa 1100kg vs a 1600kg CRV then compare the power to weight ratio and you'll realise that 'paper bhp' is only half the story

Well I'm no boy racer or car fanatic. 

A well made, comfy, dependable Jap motor with good mpg is fine with me.

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2 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

We're trying to keep our 14 year old car on the road until early 2021. There'll be bargains to be had, for sure.

For the first time in my life I may be able to genuinely afford a youngish motor.

Honda CRV has my eyes.

Iv got a 15 year old and a 13 year old,i keep two as can repair at will and never be without a car.Parts work out an average £250 a year and thats it,depreciated them years ago.I really dont want to get rid of one,but im thinking that late this year early next will be prime time.

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Many miners getting spanked today, EXK in particular. I'm a buyer, I like what I see in their earnings report from yesterday. I think people might not have read the entire text and focussed on net loss for the quarter instead. 

I'm also not too impressed with Avino production (especially the increasing reliance on copper) and I think some might be disappointed by their upcoming earnings on the 11th. I'm not buying at these levels. 

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Bricks & Mortar
2 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Many miners getting spanked today, EXK in particular. I'm a buyer, I like what I see in their earnings report from yesterday. I think people might not have read the entire text and focussed on net loss for the quarter instead. 

I'm also not too impressed with Avino production (especially the increasing reliance on copper) and I think some might be disappointed by their upcoming earnings on the 11th. I'm not buying at these levels. 

Thankyou Kibuc!  I was wondering what was up with my EXK holding and hovering over the sell button when I read your comment.
Do you think they missed the bit about the mine shutdowns?

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52 minutes ago, kibuc said:

Many miners getting spanked today, EXK in particular. I'm a buyer, I like what I see in their earnings report from yesterday. I think people might not have read the entire text and focussed on net loss for the quarter instead. 

I'm also not too impressed with Avino production (especially the increasing reliance on copper) and I think some might be disappointed by their upcoming earnings on the 11th. I'm not buying at these levels. 

They will also be raising money for the new mine in the market selling shares.They have raised $21million so far.Guanacevi looking much better as well.Iv been selling a lot into the rally as they nearly 4 bagged and i had a big holding,but holding the rest.

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3 minutes ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

Thankyou Kibuc!  I was wondering what was up with my EXK holding and hovering over the sell button when I read your comment.
Do you think they missed the bit about the mine shutdowns?

Every man and their dog knows that Mexico was shut down for a prolonged period in Q2 so I don't think that's that. They reported yesterday premarket and rallied initialy so maybe it's just profit taking? Anyway, Guanacevi had a really strong quarter, costs came in lower than expected, Terronera increases in value with each pop in PMs, I like what I'm seeing here. 

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ashestoashes
4 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

We're trying to keep our 14 year old car on the road until early 2021. There'll be bargains to be had, for sure.

For the first time in my life I may be able to genuinely afford a youngish motor.

Honda CRV has my eyes.

looking at a 2014 CRV 2.0 vtec 2WD tomorrow, there seem to be problems with the newer ones 2015, 2017 etc, sweet spot seems to be 2011-2014

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Great Panther reporting second quarter earnings tomorrow so if it shits the bed you know why....

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5 hours ago, AWW said:

Well I became a Covid economic statistic yesterday, although they did give me almost a full month's notice, which is quite nice for a contract.  Am now out of 3SIL and the silver miners and have offloaded more than half of my physical silver on eBay while there's a final value fee offer on, for a nice profit considering I only held it for a fortnight :-)

Will look to buy more physical on a pullback from what looks to me to be an unsustainable move.

Same here, redundant end September. Both my siblings too - one messed around by a new employer who reneged on their job offer. Pretty shocking as said employer are a charity and rolling in cash.

I have a notion to join the unemployable and enjoy some of those sweet, sweet bennies while the job market is so shit, spending the time re-skilling. Really feels like giving the audition of my life for the most average job at the moment. Plus I share DB's and I'm sure most of the Credit Deflation crew's views on income tax. Fuck 'em.

On PMs I'm utterly torn between the dumb money not being in the market yet (just the semi-dumb, i.e. me) and that a pullback is likely. But regarding a likely pullback, I remember last time round, when utterly shit AIM PM miners were going up 5-10% every day. Every day. For weeks. Share prices 10 bagging and beyond. I top-sliced once the price had doubled, a free-carry, then got antsy and reinvested at ever higher prices, then failing to sell at $50 silver. Turned a 5 figure profit into a 3 figure one :D

I'm sitting on my PM gains for now, not going to sell too soon this time. Though keeping plenty of dry powder so I can take advantage of any decent pullback.

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18 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Great Panther reporting second quarter earnings tomorrow so if it shits the bed you know why....

Who cares about earnings or quality in a silver bull they just need a good name,crap managers and some prospects that might have some silver and to be on my rubber band list then its good to go xD

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8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Who cares about earnings or quality in a silver bull they just need a good name,crap managers and some prospects that might have some silver and to be on my rubber band list then its good to go xD

GPR checks all these boxes, Tucano is turning the corner and they are dirt cheap compared to their peers. If they dip, I'll be buying plenty more. 

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Lightscribe
6 hours ago, AWW said:

Well I became a Covid economic statistic yesterday, although they did give me almost a full month's notice, which is quite nice for a contract.  Am now out of 3SIL and the silver miners and have offloaded more than half of my physical silver on eBay while there's a final value fee offer on, for a nice profit considering I only held it for a fortnight :-)

Will look to buy more physical on a pullback from what looks to me to be an unsustainable move.

I’m currently nearly 100% up on Fresnillo in all my family ISAs, and a fair whack up in HOC and CEY. The only thing I did was sell my daughters HOC allocation for BP which itself is now 10% up. Only because her ISA is very long term (shes 8) so wanted to reduce exposure. 

I don’t think they’ll be a pullback (I think we’ve had it). Even in a production results downturn current rising silver price will put FRES ahead in profits and they have another mine opening next year. I believe there’s a major upside on this still to come, silver has suddenly come onto everybody’s radar, especially with green energy use. I’m going big or going home with my allocations. To the moon!

Theres no safe havens left, treasuries are negative, interest rates non existent and FAANGs stocks and property assets in bubbles.

Its PM and crypto like BTC and ETH time to shine as excess cash looks for a home to hedge against inflation coming later.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/amp.ft.com/content/2f6c709d-e589-4d1f-9811-10b9d0ef0d81

5D68DF19-74FD-4840-8889-6DDC2E39C17C.jpeg

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