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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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3 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Blimey @Loki, that's quite some timing there. Less than 24h later and Hindenberg dropped their expose/hatchet-job*

(* delete as appropriate per your preferred conspiracy)

https://hindenburgresearch.com/nikola/

Nikola: How to Parlay An Ocean of Lies Into a Partnership With the Largest Auto OEM in America

(I won't paste anything other than the title, since this one has litigation written all over it)

Wow.

Taking the article at face value, that is extraordinary.

Missed the entry point for a short at market opening; will look for another.

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1 hour ago, wherebee said:

Well, just bought a load of Shell.  It's dipped to the lowest it's been since 1995.  I was going to sit on the sidelines with my cash but I could not resist it.  

I'll either be very happy, or having to explain to the family in ten years why it is spam again for tea.

Ten years from now, a tin of spam a day will mark you out as one of the elite

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Sell *1,746,0201,032.00

Uncrossing Trade
16:35:20 - 11-Sep-20

Seen this today regarding RDSB shares. Right on the bell. They dropped from 10.38 to 10.32.

What happened here. Was it a huge sell off to liquidate over the weekend.

 

Screenshot_2020-09-11-17-43-39.png

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3 hours ago, wherebee said:

Well, just bought a load of Shell.  It's dipped to the lowest it's been since 1995.  I was going to sit on the sidelines with my cash but I could not resist it.  

I'll either be very happy, or having to explain to the family in ten years why it is spam again for tea.

What did you get them for?

Seen them dip myself...Spam's not to bad, I'm sure you'll be having steak..

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So something I plan to read up on this weekend is cryptodollars. What piqued my interest is this tweet from Nic Carter:

He's a generally interesting follow for all things crypto, and not usually prone to melodramatics - if he calls something out, it's usually worth a look.

(That said, I try not to dive in on every new thing in the crypto space, mainly because there's always so much that's new - you could easily go mad trying to keep on top of it)

But Decentralized Finance is getting very interesting IMO, with many of the trappings of institutionally-underwritten monetary systems starting to find analogues in the crypto space.

I found this article very thought-provoking: https://bankless.substack.com/p/rise-of-the-cryptodollar

Keen to learn more if anyone can suggest some good resources.

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5 hours ago, wherebee said:

Well, just bought a load of Shell.  It's dipped to the lowest it's been since 1995.  I was going to sit on the sidelines with my cash but I could not resist it.  

I'll either be very happy, or having to explain to the family in ten years why it is spam again for tea.

Don't I fucking know it!!😜😜

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18 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Oi!! You said you were staying out until the BK!!

just before? or just after? thats important.

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27 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

just before? or just after? thats important.

I believe just after is when everyone on here will be spunking their war chests on dirt cheap reflation stocks!

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FDR's ban on gold during the 1930s lasted 40 years and was only made legal again in the 1970s. Martin Armstrong warns this could well happen again..I have a feeling it will start in Europe.
For those accumulating gold bullion, do you ever hold the fear it will be made illegal to own?  What would you do in those circumstances.   Sell physical and buy mining and gold stocks. bury it. Keep it for the black market?
 
'There remains a serious risk to the gold market that they will once again make it illegal. You must realize if they are trying to eliminate cash to force everybody back into banks so they can tax you, why would they allow gold or private cryptocurrencies to compete? Pay attention!'
 
Private blog 
They will not allow people to turn to gold to defeat their grand plan. There remains the risk of pushing gold underground into a black-market.
Silver has outperformed gold on this rally and I still believe it will do so in the years ahead. This is mainly due to the fact that there are fewer restrictions on silver compared to gold as governments continue to hunt money.
 
 https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/precious-metals/gold/the-threat-to-gold/?utm_source=Newsletter&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=RSS
'Therefore, the risk is that they go beyond simply confiscating gold in transport, but they move to even shut-down physical dealers who already must report on transactions. They can plainly make gold illegal in transactions just as they now make it illegal to pay for even a hotel in Europe with cash of more than €1,000 (see Italy, France, etc.)'
 
The EU authorities will attempt at some point to demonetize gold, making it illegal to own as a private individual similar to that of what Roosevelt did in 1934 to Americans. They will do this to remove any path of resistance to their socialistic agenda.
 
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Don't forget, Roosvelt banned it and offered dollars for gold turned in before upping the price and basically stiffing all the law abiding.  But if you look at what proportion are thought to have handed their gold in, it's very very small. and that was in an era with a 90+% white american population who trusted the government.  Good luck with that now.

I can't see the banning of gold.  I can see increasing requirements for ID when buying or selling, to enable taxation of profits.  However, as posted by others, gold and silver are the taxman's nightmare - widely accepted, reshapable into other forms so that original source cannot be confirmed, chemically inert so you can leave them in the ground for decades and get them later.  When I lived in the UK, I knew two goldsmiths in essex well who in such an environment would, I suspect strongly, remake any gold coins you have into jewellery.  Then it becomes a family heirloom you've had for years, officer.

When I used to read the goldbug forums trying understand the GFC, it was full of people who joked about losing their gold in a boating accident.  I reckon you'll have millions around the world who, if a ban came in, would say fuck it and just not declare.  Then if gold went to 100,000 per ounce, who cares if you lose 20% on the black market?  We'd see a rapid expansion in black market traders, as with other banned stuff.

Plus places like India would never accept a gold ban - it is central to their culture.  Add in most of Africa, most of the middle east, south america. Switzerland, right in the heart of Europe.   You'd have loads of places that will never outlaw gold and will never criminalise people who make money off it.  Governments in the west can't even stop the drugs market, where they have got a global agreement to treat dealers and growers as criminal.  How the hell would gold be seen?  Grannies necklace is now illegal?  riiiight.

 

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9 hours ago, wherebee said:

Don't forget, Roosvelt banned it and offered dollars for gold turned in before upping the price and basically stiffing all the law abiding.  But if you look at what proportion are thought to have handed their gold in, it's very very small. and that was in an era with a 90+% white american population who trusted the government.  Good luck with that now.

I can't see the banning of gold.  I can see increasing requirements for ID when buying or selling, to enable taxation of profits.  However, as posted by others, gold and silver are the taxman's nightmare - widely accepted, reshapable into other forms so that original source cannot be confirmed, chemically inert so you can leave them in the ground for decades and get them later.  When I lived in the UK, I knew two goldsmiths in essex well who in such an environment would, I suspect strongly, remake any gold coins you have into jewellery.  Then it becomes a family heirloom you've had for years, officer.

When I used to read the goldbug forums trying understand the GFC, it was full of people who joked about losing their gold in a boating accident.  I reckon you'll have millions around the world who, if a ban came in, would say fuck it and just not declare.  Then if gold went to 100,000 per ounce, who cares if you lose 20% on the black market?  We'd see a rapid expansion in black market traders, as with other banned stuff.

Plus places like India would never accept a gold ban - it is central to their culture.  Add in most of Africa, most of the middle east, south america. Switzerland, right in the heart of Europe.   You'd have loads of places that will never outlaw gold and will never criminalise people who make money off it.  Governments in the west can't even stop the drugs market, where they have got a global agreement to treat dealers and growers as criminal.  How the hell would gold be seen?  Grannies necklace is now illegal?  riiiight.

 

India is interesting as most families (even poorer ones) have some generational gold passed down through the years, as you say it’s ingrained in the culture.

If gold went to £100k an ounce, you would have a reversal of fortunes (and probably a bloodbath) where large swathes of the middle-east would suddenly be thrust into wealth, and the average westerner would be stuck with worthless fiat currency. 

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23 hours ago, wherebee said:

Well, just bought a load of Shell.  It's dipped to the lowest it's been since 1995.  I was going to sit on the sidelines with my cash but I could not resist it.  

I'll either be very happy, or having to explain to the family in ten years why it is spam again for tea.

Having totted up how much I have put into oilies now, my first thought was that I might be headed for baked beans. Spam would be living it up.

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On 11/09/2020 at 14:24, wherebee said:

Well, just bought a load of Shell.  It's dipped to the lowest it's been since 1995.  I was going to sit on the sidelines with my cash but I could not resist it.  

I'll either be very happy, or having to explain to the family in ten years why it is spam again for tea.

Good for you. Bought some Repsol yesterday. If I had more money I would buy more shell.

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3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Having totted up how much I have put into oilies now, my first thought was that I might be headed for baked beans. Spam would be living it up.

sup with baked beans. I dunno some people eh. The missus is used to high end food, which is what im blaming all her ails on, i live on bland food which i quite like, but i have none of the problems she has. Probably eating to live rather than the other way round and not really having a taste for pop/alcohol helps.

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20 hours ago, Panda said:

Sell *1,746,0201,032.00

Uncrossing Trade
16:35:20 - 11-Sep-20

Seen this today regarding RDSB shares. Right on the bell. They dropped from 10.38 to 10.32.

What happened here. Was it a huge sell off to liquidate over the weekend.

It's not just RDSB.

At 16:35 there is always a huge buy or sell, look at any other company.

On HL you used to be able to sort the 'Trades by Volume' on any company page and you could see the big one.

They don't provide any company data at the moment, e.g.  RDSB

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1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's not just RDSB.

At 16:35 there is always a huge buy or sell, look at any other company.

On HL you used to be able to sort the 'Trades by Volume' on any company page and you could see the big one.

They don't provide any company data at the moment, e.g.  RDSB

are these not just uncrossed end of days accumulations? institutionals/negotiated and/or collected trades en-block for dealers/exectioners?

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you can get some info here;

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/stock/RDSB/royal-dutch-shell-plc/trade-recap

think you can download the trades for a period, dunno never tried.

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7 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

are these not just uncrossed end of days accumulations? institutionals/negotiated and/or collected trades en-block for dealers/exectioners?

It's something like that because the figure is always massive.

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12 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

sup with baked beans. I dunno some people eh. The missus is used to high end food, which is what im blaming all her ails on, i live on bland food which i quite like, but i have none of the problems she has. Probably eating to live rather than the other way round and not really having a taste for pop/alcohol helps.

In the absence of our friend, @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker, and to maintain our other key interest here, just made a microwaved sponge pudding (yes, it's possible) with damsons from our first crop.  Total quality, totally cheap.

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11 minutes ago, Harley said:

In the absence of our friend, @Yellow_Reduced_Sticker, and to maintain our other key interest here, just made a microwaved sponge pudding (yes, it's possible) with damsons from our first crop.  Total quality, totally cheap.

We have a full winter supply of apple crumbles/pies made from my dads apple trees.The amount of apples from two trees is amazing.We have some apples back because we will be out brambling and we like to make some apple and blackberry ones as well.Make our own custard from the powder of course,almost free.

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8 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

We have a full winter supply of apple crumbles/pies made from my dads apple trees.The amount of apples from two trees is amazing.We have some apples back because we will be out brambling and we like to make some apple and blackberry ones as well.Make our own custard from the powder of course,almost free.

We wash, core and chop our fruit and just freeze in small portion sized bags.  Fine for deserts, even spreads.  No faffing about making jam with oodles of nasty sugar. And in the no faffing about spirit, I posted a quick and dirty suitable microwaved sponge pudding on the gardening thread (under the Hobbies section).

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