Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JREWING]

28 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's something like that because the figure is always massive.

Cost me 6p a share.

W*nkers causing such a big drop.

1.75 million shares they sold... Some booty that is.

Be interesting Monday 8am up to 10.56 or down to 10.12....

9.99 would be nice.

I quite like beans.

[JREWING]

49 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

It's not just RDSB.

At 16:35 there is always a huge buy or sell, look at any other company.

On HL you used to be able to sort the 'Trades by Volume' on any company page and you could see the big one.

They don't provide any company data at the moment, e.g.  RDSB

To be honest I'm pretty happy.

RDSB. Brought in initially at 10.39.

Sold out at 10.56.

Bought in again yesterday at 10.29.

Based on my original size pot of cash in the SIPP.

I own 2801 shares costing including all duties and fees.

10.25p per share. Think that's pretty good value considering I've only owned and traded shares for 12 days and done three trades in that time.

Bit of luck.

Held in my SIPP.

That's me done messing now. I'll hold. Only dip in again if they go sub 9.99.

Don't want to sell out again only to miss a big uplift.

 

 

 

[DurhamBorn]

Has anyone here been over the balance sheet or know much about Aker Solutions ASA the old Kværner

They are mainly involved in deep see oil work hence their share price being in constant free fall,but i keep seeing them involved in offshore wind and im trying to see if its the same company etc or not.

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, Panda said:

To be honest I'm pretty happy.

RDSB. Brought in initially at 10.39.

Sold out at 10.56.

Bought in again yesterday at 10.29.

Based on my original size pot of cash in the SIPP.

I own 2801 shares costing including all duties and fees.

10.25p per share. Think that's pretty good value considering I've only owned and traded shares for 12 days and done three trades in that time.

Bit of luck.

Held in my SIPP.

That's me done messing now. I'll hold. Only dip in again if they go sub 9.99.

Don't want to sell out again only to miss a big uplift.

I told you to expect a large dose of buyer's remorse!

[Transistor Man]

5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Has anyone here been over the balance sheet or know much about Aker Solutions ASA the old Kværner

They are mainly involved in deep see oil work hence their share price being in constant free fall,but i keep seeing them involved in offshore wind and im trying to see if its the same company etc or not.

 

July 17, 2020 - Aker Solutions is launching a series of structural and strategic changes to transform the company and enhance shareholder value by spinning off the wind and carbon capture businesses to shareholders and merging Aker Solutions ASA ("Aker Solutions") with Kværner ASA ("Kvaerner") to create an optimized supplier company. Kjetel Digre has been appointed Chief Executive Officer of Aker Solutions, effective August 1, 2020, and will lead the combined company. 

https://www.akersolutions.com/news/news-archive/2020/aker-solutions-appoints-new-ceo-and-launches-transformation-to-spin-off-offshore-wind-and-ccus-businesses-to-shareholders-and-merge-with-kvaerner/

[sancho panza]

19 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Has anyone here been over the balance sheet or know much about Aker Solutions ASA the old Kværner

They are mainly involved in deep see oil work hence their share price being in constant free fall,but i keep seeing them involved in offshore wind and im trying to see if its the same company etc or not.

 

looks like it is the old Kvaerner.

I've had a look and remmebr I'm not an accountant.Equity/Assets is low at 17% and that's with 64% of net assets being good will and intangibles(65% and 35% respectively)

I don't understand the industry it's in but these sorts of figures are jsut about tolerable in big brand utility with steady revenues.

FCF doesn't look particularly stellar either.COnsistently so.

 

 

[Hardhat]

Thought this was relevant...

 

https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwnode=RPS_EN-PROD$INTERNAT&rwsite=RPS_EN-PROD&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&document=PROD0000000000511857

 

The world is on the cusp of a new era that will be characterised initially by disorder with a likely loosening of the globalisation that created the rapid economic and asset price growth of the last 40 years, according to Deutsche Bank’s Long-Term Asset Return Study 2020.

The flagship annual publication argues that 2020 marks the beginning of a new “structural super-cycle” of the kind that “shapes everything from economies to asset prices, politics, and our general way of life.”

The team, led by Strategist Jim Reid, predict an “Age of Disorder” – which is hastened, but not caused by, the corona virus – threatens the current high global asset valuations and will see governments and corporates take on even more debt.

In terms of geopolitics, tension between the US and China should “characterise the era of disorder” as China continues its path to restoring its historic role as a global economic powerhouse while preferring its own values to Western liberalism.

“A clash of cultures and interests therefore beckons, especially as China grows closer to being the largest economy in the world,” the report says.

Age of Disorder – specifically the next 10 years - could also be “a make-or-break decade for Europe”, the report says, arguing that the chances of muddling through for Europe have decreased and while the potential for further integration has increased with the recent Recovery Fund, the economic divergences will likely increase further and cause more stress points post-Covid.

The eight themes that will define the Age of Disorder are:

1. Deteriorating US/China relations and the reversal of unfettered globalisation.
2. A make-or-break decade for Europe.
3. Even higher debt and MMT/helicopter money becoming mainstream.
4. Inflation or deflation?
5. Inequality worsening before a backlash and reversal takes place.
6. The intergenerational divide widening.
7. The climate debate will build.
8. Technology revolution or bubble?

The report examines the current situation - The second era of globalisation (1980-2020?) – describing it as “the best combined asset price growth of any era in history, with equity and bond returns very strong across the board. It’s unlikely that the Age of Disorder can see such performance maintained, especially in real terms.”

But the report concludes: “In the years ahead, simply extrapolating past trends could be the biggest mistake you make”.

[wherebee]

1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

Thought this was relevant...

 

https://www.dbresearch.com/servlet/reweb2.ReWEB?rwnode=RPS_EN-PROD$INTERNAT&rwsite=RPS_EN-PROD&rwobj=ReDisplay.Start.class&document=PROD0000000000511857

 

The world is on the cusp of a new era that will be characterised initially by disorder with a likely loosening of the globalisation that created the rapid economic and asset price growth of the last 40 years, according to Deutsche Bank’s Long-Term Asset Return Study 2020.

In terms of geopolitics, tension between the US and China should “characterise the era of disorder” as China continues its path to restoring its historic role as a global economic powerhouse while preferring its own values to Western liberalism.

China was never an economic powerhouse.  I see more and more analysis where they have shoehorned in a kiss-piece to China.  Makes me doubt the rest of what they are selling.

[leonardratso]

course deutsche bank has been a paragon of virtue and sound money as well all these years. how the fuck have they managed to keep going? or are they just wirecard unduscovered yet?

[UnconventionalWisdom]

On 03/09/2020 at 20:17, MrXxxx said:

Perhaps I am looking at this too simplistically, but why anyone would become involved in BTL as an investment is beyond me. OK, if you want to be in residential property buy, do up and flip...at least when you sell you know the money is in your bank account, and if it isn't it doesn't happen...BTL in the same scenario would be selling the house, letting the new owners move in, and then letting them decide if they want to pay you or not!

People are lazy and don't want to put the effort into learning what they should invest in. They heard from a mate who makes money from leveraging up investment in btl that you can get x rent a month and house prices always go up. They go for it as they think it's that easy. Plenty more people still considering it as they have done no homework and think it's a no brainer. 

Also stock market is hambling to them. Crazy as they are happy with leverage investments but not stock based on informed predictions.

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

People are lazy and don't want to put the effort into learning what they should invest in. They heard from a mate who makes money from leveraging up investment in btl that you can get x rent a month and house prices always go up. They go for it as they think it's that easy. Plenty more people still considering it as they have done no homework and think it's a no brainer. 

Also stock market is hambling to them. Crazy as they are happy with leverage investments but not stock based on informed predictions.

Thats how markets hurt the most people possible in the end.BTL has grown until everyone knows someone who has a one,or a few.For some of course its a great investment.I know a builder who has 4,all paid for,all bought cheap (30k),done up by him when he was quiet with work,and now repaired by him,or his mates in the trade.He doesnt put rents up on good tenants,fixes things the next day etc.

Most others though its a disaster waiting to happen.Leveraged,none Ltd so their own home on the hook etc.A sitting duck for taxation.

[Sugarlips]

Anyone got an opinion on Sterling crosses from here? GBP/AUD at 1.76 is within 10% of the 2016 election lows, are we going to retest these lows just in time for the 2020 US election/final Brexit? 

I can see Sterling rallying hard if we get the BK but with Dow futures we’ll up again I don’t see it materializing this week..again. Without the BK, AUD just keeps drifting higher

[wherebee]

41 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

Anyone got an opinion on Sterling crosses from here? GBP/AUD at 1.76 is within 10% of the 2016 election lows, are we going to retest these lows just in time for the 2020 US election/final Brexit? 

I can see Sterling rallying hard if we get the BK but with Dow futures we’ll up again I don’t see it materializing this week..again. Without the BK, AUD just keeps drifting higher

really?  I looked a few weeks ago and the GBP didn't look nice at all for me. 

 

*scurries off to check*

[Democorruptcy]

$47 Trillion?

Quote

 

A leading investor group has written to the boards of the world's biggest corporate emitters of greenhouse gases, warning they must produce a strategy to move their business to net-zero carbon emissions or face pressure at future AGMs.

Climate Action 100+, whose members include most of the world's biggest investors, collectively managing $47 trillion in assets, said the strategies needed to have clear targets and that companies would be assessed on their performance.

While some companies have already moved to commit to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 or sooner, many have not. It can also be hard to compare the relative merits of each company's strategy, which can make engagement harder.

To help fix the problem, CA100+ said on Monday it was launching a new benchmark to help its 500 members and others assess each company's progress on the way to net-zero against a set of 30 indicators.

In a letter to the boards of 161 companies collectively accounting for around 80% of the world's greenhouse gas emissions, CA100+ said greater action was needed to meet the terms of the 2015 Paris agreement to limit global warming.

etc..

https://www.hl.co.uk/news/2020/9/14/investor-group-issues-agm-warning-to-climate-net-zero-laggards?

 

 

[wherebee]

4 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

$47 Trillion?

 

Meanwhile all the Chinese companies laugh at the hoops their competitors must jump through.

[Harley]

8 hours ago, leonardratso said:

course deutsche bank has been a paragon of virtue and sound money as well all these years. how the fuck have they managed to keep going? or are they just wirecard unduscovered yet?

While that may be a valid comment, I thought the points made were reasonable, if slightly lame, except the importance of the last one about extrapolating the past.  I see it all in an environment of social and financial tyranny, aided by that lovely tech.  Everyone I know who does macro everything and is able has already run away.

[JREWING]

1 hour ago, Sugarlips said:

Anyone got an opinion on Sterling crosses from here? GBP/AUD at 1.76 is within 10% of the 2016 election lows, are we going to retest these lows just in time for the 2020 US election/final Brexit? 

I can see Sterling rallying hard if we get the BK but with Dow futures we’ll up again I don’t see it materializing this week..again. Without the BK, AUD just keeps drifting higher

I remember July/Aug 2012. Just arrived in Bris. Going to the ATM getting circa 1.48. That hurt.

My opinion, I do have skin in the game.

1.76 will be the low.

Been watching it myself with finger on sell... Missed 1.76 so waiting patiently.

1.61 was 2016 low I think.

That would be nice but Aus has a boat load of shit coming its way. Can't believe how well the $ has performed..

 

[Ma2]

The Spectre of Inflation

https://www.thearticle.com/the-spectre-of-inflation

Interesting recent article on inflation. I'm still trying to get my head around what it could look like and what interest rates might do, looking back to the 60's/70's seems to give some idea for those of us that didn't experience it.

"The inability to find paid employment after repeated attempts to do so is depressing, demoralising and spiritually impoverishing. As the 1930s and early 1980s showed, unemployment is indeed a “ social evil ”. The 1970s also demonstrated, however, that this is true of high and volatile inflation. 

At that time, I was a member of the economics department of the London School of Economics, teaching and conducting research in the field of monetary economics. That inflation reached 25 per cent in 1975 is a matter of record. Inflation seems a more abstract concept than unemployment, but it can have just as devastating an impact. Living through that period and witnessing at first hand the corrosive effects it had on economic life and the life of society I saw another aspect of the story and one which I would never wish to see repeated. Carefully managed savings were eroded; reckless borrowing was rewarded. It is interesting that most members of the present Cabinet had not reached their teens when inflation took off in the 1970s and so have little experience of living with it..."

Is unemployment the elephant in the room here? I know that we on this thread are concerned with avoiding this erosion of savings and that's great for those that have sufficient savings to take them through retirement, but perhaps one thing we don't talk about is how are we to save if we have lost our jobs, or have only been able to find jobs that cover our costs, or perhaps our wages are not increasing in line with inflation?

Maximising income and savings and reducing outgoings now while we are working is of course a necessity but perhaps we could look at the areas that we believe will do well and see how we could transfer our skills, or reskill, as appropriate. I have noticed however that a lot of companies we are looking at, although some are registered in the UK, aren't big employers here.

I think the utility companies could be a good target area to look at in the UK as they have many different types of role, many based here in the UK, up and down the country (including call centres, perhaps even able to work from home).

Local government seem to have index linked salary, not sure I'd fancy that though and who can be sure of there not being cuts made there.

Just started thinking about this and will post more ideas as I get time to research a bit more.

 

[wherebee]

24 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

The Spectre of Inflation

https://www.thearticle.com/the-spectre-of-inflation

 

Local government seem to have index linked salary, not sure I'd fancy that though and who can be sure of there not being cuts made there.

 

 

If you are female, working in the public sector is a no brainer in my view, both in the UK and Australia.  Even if you get sacked, the payoffs are always - ALWAYS - better than private sector.  Plus, you have great flexibility on time off for kids, illness, etc etc.  Yes, you might go mad from the boredom, but I suspect steady income will be worth that soon.

If you are a man, a bit riskier (as you will be unprotected as a special group), but still worth it to a large degree.  

[TNS]

I'm curious as to peoples thoughts on the oilies when the fact appears that battery disposal is probably more costly environmentally compared to good old combustion vehicles. It'll be brushed under the carpet to start with but it will rear up eventually I think. 

[Craig]

1 hour ago, TheNickos said:

I'm curious as to peoples thoughts on the oilies when the fact appears that battery disposal is probably more costly environmentally compared to good old combustion vehicles. It'll be brushed under the carpet to start with but it will rear up eventually I think. 

I'd imagine given the rarity and value of the constituent parts of the batteries that there'll be a fair amount of research into recovering them, rather than disposing of them. Certainly the rare earth minerals such as lithium for example.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Ma2 said:

At that time, I was a member of the economics department of the London School of Economics, teaching and conducting research in the field of monetary economics.

Nice to have you on board, even if from that leftist hotbed, something which now seems quite quaint!  Mine was the last year to teach current cost accounting.  I remember it being a big deal, others maybe set to learn!

[Ma2]

22 minutes ago, Harley said:

2 hours ago, Ma2 said:

At that time, I was a member of the economics department of the London School of Economics, teaching and conducting research in the field of monetary economics.

Nice to have you on board, even if from that leftist hotbed, something which now seems quite quaint!  Mine was the last year to teach current cost accounting.  I remember it being a big deal, others maybe set to learn!

The part in quotes and bold type was an exerpt from the linked article not my personal experience I'm afraid @Harley

I'm just learning as I go along!

[janch]

2 hours ago, TheNickos said:

I'm curious as to peoples thoughts on the oilies when the fact appears that battery disposal is probably more costly environmentally compared to good old combustion vehicles. It'll be brushed under the carpet to start with but it will rear up eventually I think. 

I was talking to someone about this the other day and they told me about a company which recycles batteries:

https://www.aceleronenergy.com/

I don't think they have listed as yet so could be one of the little companies which get bought out by the big energy companies.

NB There is a US company of the same name which is a pharma company.

[JMD]

1 hour ago, TheNickos said:

I'm curious as to peoples thoughts on the oilies when the fact appears that battery disposal is probably more costly environmentally compared to good old combustion vehicles. It'll be brushed under the carpet to start with but it will rear up eventually I think. 

That is big question you ask. But kind'a overlaps with many themes of this blog it think. And as a big investor in the oil companies it does interest me.

In the West, oil will be replaced by nuclear/gas/renewables (India/China, will set their own timeframe agenda). The oil companies will benefit from these emerging energy sectors as they invest into and then dominate them. Even the Ex-Extinction Rebellion spokesperson - Zion Lights (yes that really is her name!; see link below) now having joined another think-tank - she now speaks up in favor of nuclear. If she can change her mind so quickly, then surely everything is in flux? Not to mention that there are lots of 'big political ideas' at play here, i.e. politicians kicking the (economic inflation/debt) can, by conveniently utilising the massive planned green infrastructure projects. 

In regard to those battery disposal costs you mention, short-term thinking means these costs are not really factored in (happens everywhere - bit like the tragic recent Covid closures of our NHS in order to 'save lives', only to 'discover' that a different set of the population - i.e. young cancer patients have been instead condemned (disposed!) to die). How much real thinking is happening is anyone's guess, especially when the climate issues are framed as existential threats to mankind, or even what's our moral responsibility to the polar bear!

However, I don't hold the politicians entirely to blame (it mostly the voter and the system itself, but that's a topic for another thread). Anyway who'd be a politician these days? A simple cost/benefit would reveal too much scrutiny and too little reward (so unfortunately, the ideal candidature find more appealing careers elsewhere). I guess our current crop of political 'leaders' do mean well - but far too many of them are just bored/egocentric city-types or lawyers - when what we really need are boring/meek accountants. I think an accountant would have a better understanding of risk, price and value (financial and moral btw). But i expect that we wont get this, instead i fear we will have to suffer under a charismatic leader type first. Is it just history repeating...!!!  

 

As for 'Zion-the-easily-converted-Zealot', first we have...

And now...

https://www.cityam.com/a-message-from-a-former-extinction-rebellion-activist-fellow-environmentalists-join-me-in-embracing-nuclear-power/