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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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Just something to pay attention to ...

 

August train shipments from China to Europe, saw 1,247 trains carrying 113,000 TEUs depart, yielding an increase of 62% and 66% yoy respectively, reaching record highs.

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Bus Stop Boxer
On 14/09/2020 at 16:12, Popuplights said:

Yes. Looking weaker and weaker

Im getting rinsed. Bought in early May. Went away. Was £2k up across the piece, briefly. No No this is long term i said...

Currently down.... actually i daren't look. Prob at least £2-3k on £10k in.

BP

Shell

Occidental

Pioneer

EOG

Wisdom Tree Crude

Amongst others....

Have to sit tight.

 

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10 minutes ago, Bus Stop Boxer said:

Im getting rinsed. Bought in early May. Went away. Was £2k up across the piece, briefly. No No this is long term i said...

Currently down.... actually i daren't look. Prob at least £2-3k on £10k in.

BP

Shell

Occidental

Pioneer

EOG

Wisdom Tree Crude

Amongst others....

Have to sit tight.

 

I'm worse off than that mate. And that's just with Shell. Plenty of others on here in a similar state. HODL. 

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23 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

I'm worse off than that mate. And that's just with Shell. Plenty of others on here in a similar state. HODL. 

didn't someone on here tell me why worry about 1 dollar down per share when in 4 years it's expected you will be up 20 dollars per share?  In other words, if you still believe in the fundamentals of long term established oil companies doing well, why worry.

That reassured me and reminded me of the long game (until I read the other thread about alien technology demolishing the need for oil)...

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Bus Stop Boxer
10 minutes ago, wherebee said:

didn't someone on here tell me why worry about 1 dollar down per share when in 4 years it's expected you will be up 20 dollars per share?  In other words, if you still believe in the fundamentals of long term established oil companies doing well, why worry.

That reassured me and reminded me of the long game (until I read the other thread about alien technology demolishing the need for oil)...

Ummm i errr....

well...

 

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Oil demand isn't going away. Coronavirus is a black swan. Might even go lower before we rally. But this is a rubber band situation for oil. 

Only consider selling oil stocks at WTI $200

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3 hours ago, Hardhat said:

Oil demand isn't going away. Coronavirus is a black swan. Might even go lower before we rally. But this is a rubber band situation for oil. 

Only consider selling oil stocks at WTI $200

I dont actually think this is the right thread for people who worry about being down 10%/20% etc on individual stocks.I also cant understand how people can be down on portfolios here when silver miners trebled,as did most gold miners on here.Im only down 4% on BP after divis,12% on Shell 8% on Repsol etc,nothing.There are many stocks that have gone up over 100%.Mosaic nearly 200% for instance,DRAX 100%+,Playtech +200%,William Hill +200%,look at harmony Gold up 300%.Markets arent linear and sectors will run in their own times.

For myself i road map a cycle,and this one ahead is probably ending around 2028/30.My portfolio is designed to out run inflation.I see roughly 69% inflation over the cycle and i hope to match and outperform that.

Im hoping sectors like oil and a few others can stay down,or drift down more because divis are flowing in and i prefer to pay less for things i want,not more.

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30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont actually think this is the right thread for people who worry about being down 10%/20% etc on individual stocks.I also cant understand how people can be down on portfolios here when silver miners trebled,as did most gold miners on here.Im only down 4% on BP after divis,12% on Shell 8% on Repsol etc,nothing.There are many stocks that have gone up over 100%.Mosaic nearly 200% for instance,DRAX 100%+,Playtech +200%,William Hill +200%,look at harmony Gold up 300%.Markets arent linear and sectors will run in their own times.

For myself i road map a cycle,and this one ahead is probably ending around 2028/30.My portfolio is designed to out run inflation.I see roughly 69% inflation over the cycle and i hope to match and outperform that.

Im hoping sectors like oil and a few others can stay down,or drift down more because divis are flowing in and i prefer to pay less for things i want,not more.

It’s a strange market. Half my stocks are below where they were at the start of the year. A lot of my stocks are hovering +/- 10% of where they were in March when the market threw up (Vodafone, BT and Telefonica are lower for example, RDSB and BP are up 10% if you got in at the low). Then there are those stocks that have absolutely flown and dragged overall performance up with them. Petropavlovsk is up 200% YTD; the additional shares I bought in William Hill a day after they bottomed in March are now up 400%. Harmony is up 150% from when I dumped my Centrica and put it in here. My first tranche of Mosaic is up over 100% but at the same time I bought K&S which has gone nowhere.

I do agree that being down 20% in an individual stock is for me at least nothing to be worried about.

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13 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

I'm going a bit off-topic BUT this is why drones could be everywhere within a few years.....SLAM-ming......RISC chips are great for SLAM-ming apparently......be afraid, be very afraid xD

https://news.engin.umich.edu/2019/05/slam-for-drone-navigation/

Well we have automatons in government at the moment so why not drones everywhere else....come to think of it we have the drones as well, they are the ones blindly `Doing as they are told`!

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

There are many stocks that have gone up over 100%.Mosaic nearly 200% for instance,DRAX 100%+,Playtech +200%,William Hill +200%,look at harmony Gold up 300%

you managed to buy the bottom....AND you held your 'trades' on the way up....congrats, most of us are not that skilful and able to contain our emotional excitement ;)

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

.I also cant understand how people can be down on portfolios here when silver miners trebled,as did most gold miners on here.Im only down 4% on BP after divis,12% on Shell 8% on Repsol etc,nothing.There are many stocks that have gone up over 100%.Mosaic nearly 200% for instance,DRAX 100%+,Playtech +200%,William Hill +200%,look at harmony Gold up 300%.

Because despite your sterling advice some of us decided to make our own decisions..I turns out they were wrong! :-)...oh well, at least I don't have any of the Macbeth`s in my portfolio :-) :-) :-)

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CPI close to zero, courtesy of restaurant prices and clothes..0.2% YOY.

Meanwhile if you need tradesperson I'd guess prices through the roof. They are so busy you can't get them. Millions of people with Sunak's billions sitting at home, not allowed to go in holiday and unable to spend it. Some parts of the economy bust and others never been busier.

 

https://www.thesun.co.uk/money/12681987/uk-inflation-plummets-cost-clothes-restaurant-prices-drop/

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont actually think this is the right thread for people who worry about being down 10%/20% etc on individual stocks.I also cant understand how people can be down on portfolios here when silver miners trebled,as did most gold miners on here.Im only down 4% on BP after divis,12% on Shell 8% on Repsol etc,nothing.There are many stocks that have gone up over 100%.Mosaic nearly 200% for instance,DRAX 100%+,Playtech +200%,William Hill +200%,look at harmony Gold up 300%.Markets arent linear and sectors will run in their own times.

For myself i road map a cycle,and this one ahead is probably ending around 2028/30.My portfolio is designed to out run inflation.I see roughly 69% inflation over the cycle and i hope to match and outperform that.

Im hoping sectors like oil and a few others can stay down,or drift down more because divis are flowing in and i prefer to pay less for things i want,not more.

Given this is a macro thread, I'm constantly surprised by the amount of discussion around what I would consider "trading" (from a macro perspective).

Like: in the time it's taken just to fill my oil/telco ladders, several on here have traded in *and* back out of the jump in silver miners. I see that as trading a macro turn, as opposed to investing a macro trend, but then I'm *definitely* more tortoise rather than hare.

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2 minutes ago, crashmonitor said:

Meanwhile if you need tradesperson I'd guess prices through the roof. They are so busy you can't get them.

Not just me then. Got various jobs I want to get done on the house before the reflation really get going, but trades are just stupid busy. Planning to leave it until spring, see if things have calmed down a bit

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Just now, jamtomorrow said:

Not just me then. Got various jobs I want to get done on the house before the reflation really get going, but trades are just stupid busy. Planning to leave it until spring, see if things have calmed down a bit

Lol the BBC claimed builders would be idle at the start of lockdown and when the economy reopens you would have the whip hand on home improvements. The roads are clogged with white van men serving the idle furloughed on their mountain of Sunak billions. Try and get a tradesperson and you are lucky if they will deign to answer the phone just now.

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My simple approach of buying silver and PM miners in monthly allocations for the past couple of years and then changing to reflation and oillies averaging down has served me well. I’ve only sold a bit of PM miners to keep aside cash for any instant bargains.

I didn’t understand the immediate need post March dip to go all in oil. This isn’t like other recessions and stock market crashes, it’s pretty much is in slow motion and we could well have another more severe crash that will bring stocks down further this year. Covid will be with us we’ll into next year, and it won’t be after that in my view that the government money will start flowing Into reflation stocks and demand increases.

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UnconventionalWisdom
2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

dont actually think this is the right thread for people who worry about being down 10%/20% etc on individual stocks.I

Yep, some people fret too much or maybe like to moan. If one has done their homework, developed a strategy, they can be play the long game and do better things with thier life than constantly worry about not timing correctly. Even if they are basing it on themes of this thread, the homework needs to be done.

I read the posts and think, may be time to add more oil stocks.

This thread has never said it would go one way. An inflecting cycle isn't going to be a smooth change. We are talking huge changes in both monetary and fiscal policy. 

Keep up the good work DB

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StrugglingMillennial
3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont actually think this is the right thread for people who worry about being down 10%/20% etc on individual stocks.I also cant understand how people can be down on portfolios here when silver miners trebled,as did most gold miners on here.Im only down 4% on BP after divis,12% on Shell 8% on Repsol etc,nothing.There are many stocks that have gone up over 100%.Mosaic nearly 200% for instance,DRAX 100%+,Playtech +200%,William Hill +200%,look at harmony Gold up 300%.Markets arent linear and sectors will run in their own times.

For myself i road map a cycle,and this one ahead is probably ending around 2028/30.My portfolio is designed to out run inflation.I see roughly 69% inflation over the cycle and i hope to match and outperform that.

Im hoping sectors like oil and a few others can stay down,or drift down more because divis are flowing in and i prefer to pay less for things i want,not more.

Are the goldies still good value, i missed alot of the cheaper stocks in march due to hopeless isa provider i had at the time.

Interested to know how you feel about GE energy stocks, they're very cheap at the moment.

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I will happily admit when i started on this journey of learning and following this thread on the other site i was of the mindset 

I have bought shares in XYZ now i want it to go to the moon (Quick Profits)

The price of something not going anywhere or dropping and @DurhamBorn talking about hoping the prices stays low for abit longer always makes me think of this part of the interview i always mention, not sure if he reinvested those dividends but the fact people were questioning why he owned it because the price did nothing

I know oil stocks have dropped but this part of the interview was a penny drop moment for me, maybe not others as i focused on the prices alot back then and sometimes still catch myself doing it working online doesn't help O.o

I just hope these prices stay like this so  i can add ISA money too in April

 

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17 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

@JMD

Plans for a £15-£20bn nuclear power plant in Wales have been scrapped.

Work on the Wylfa Newydd project on Anglesey was suspended in January last year because of rising costs after Hitachi failed to reach a funding agreement with the UK government.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-54158091

 

What happens next? I think the UK knows it needs this. It’s popular locally (very good jobs, in an area without many). And what’s 15 bn?

I can see Wylfa from my window.

I'm not convinced it really is scrapped. It could just be some Tory cronies who want the governbankment money instead of Hitachi.

 

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