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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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21 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Open online bookies accounts and deposit 2.5 k in each for instance Deposit some with brokers also. Over pay on monthly utilities. Get some britannias. Can't really see them going for premium bonds either. Also spend on insulation if you have your own gaff. My loft insulation is 300 mm now. New boiler fitted yesterday also. Spread your cash around. Sorted.

Is the money at a bookies segregated from the companies own funds?

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5 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Is the money at a bookies segregated from the companies own funds?

I think that you have to keep the account active by betting and so on, otherwise they will slowly eat your balance up.

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8 hours ago, wherebee said:

This is my biggest worry.  If you sit on the sidelines with 200k cash, waiting for the crash, I'm pretty sure in some countries that will be bailed in at some point, with slicing of 10-20-30% to go to the government.  We saw that in Cyprus already, and this time every single government has fucked their balance sheet due to COVID.

If you have shares in companies, then I think it will be much harder to topslice, and if they do they will hit the rich and the lawmakers, so that will be the last option.

So whilst I have 50kish sitting on the sidelines, ready to invest, I would not want more than than free for fear of a seizure.  I could be wrong, and thus overpaying now, but my rule of thumb with government is think of the worst thing they can do, and prepare accordingly.

There's something comforting about buying a company with lots of real hard fixed assets.  Big smelly shiny things with flames, loud bangs, and all the rest.  Not the sandal wearing, latte infused intangible stuff written off in the whirl of a social cyber storm.  Like riding a Harley versus playing pretend on a Play Station.  Mother can tell you to go to bed.  But even she will respect a Harley.

 

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7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Is the money at a bookies segregated from the companies own funds?

Betfair and smarkets are. I did carry a decent balance at both for betting arbitrage activities. 

Betfair closed my account due to high losses and bizarrely would not accept my arbitrage explanation even with documented evidence.

I'm pretty sure both would require you to turn over your deposit at least once before withdrawal,very easy to do if familiar with arbitrage gambling.

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6 minutes ago, supernaut said:

Just gone in for a bit more bp and rdsb.

Average 1260 rdsb and 290 bp now and quite relaxed about further falls to buy in to bring those averages down further.

Good on you. Great buying point. Makes mine over the past week look like a bit of a over excited newbie.

Never thought we'd see sub 10 RSDB.

Out of liquidity me. Hope the missus don't need to do a food shop this weekend. 

I might be bin bagged. Anyone got a sofa going.

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7 hours ago, JMD said:

But again, should decide on a personally acceptable plan.  Sleeping well and not being alarmed by market downs probably means you have cracked it.                                                                               

Great point. It's a learning curve for me.

You find things out about yourself you never new.

Many moons ago I took a day off work. Spent the day in the bookies. A grand on the hip.

Only backed one Jockey all day. Maguire I think he was called Jason Maguire.

Lost the lot. Had to walk home. Never had the bus fare.

Losing a grand in a day. Found stuff out about myself. Needed to buy a car or even just a bike. The five miles killed me...

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I got quite excited back in late march early april buying all sorts. 

Some are still very grim and may well go bust ( Durhamborn did offer that as a very real possibility with big upsides on others mitigating those losses)

Stocks wise I was down 17k at one point but now a mere 6k. I dont include pms in any of this as bought in years back and exposed more than enough on the that front.

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here's a laff, just checked my portfolios...

I'm up on everything except oilies......

Going for a bike ride and might throw another 50k at RDSB to get my 'averages down' :S

fecking averaging down :P

 

whoa2.gif

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£10 might be a big psychological level for RDSB. The dip in March did not stay below that point for very long.

See it's touched that point today but rebounded off it, could be many retests today. If it breaks it it could quickly head towards 9.50.

Personally I think there is a market tantrum left, forcing Trump to offer more stimulus.

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1 hour ago, Boon said:

£10 might be a big psychological level for RDSB. The dip in March did not stay below that point for very long.

See it's touched that point today but rebounded off it, could be many retests today. If it breaks it it could quickly head towards 9.50.

Personally I think there is a market tantrum left, forcing Trump to offer more stimulus.

I have subscribed to Simply Wall St and they have RDSB at fair value of £35 per share. 

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1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Is the money at a bookies segregated from the companies own funds?

Doubt it but they are not likely to go bust. Also i believe they are a regulated indystry but I have not read the small print.

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@ cvg I don't think they will touch your balance but you would want to carry out checks and diligence. Maybe have a 2 quid punt once a year.

For those of you who don't know they will take all your money if you keep on loosing....if you start winning semi regular they limit your stakes. If you have good Intel they make impossible for you to make a decent profit.

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8 minutes ago, M S E Refugee said:

I have subscribed to Simply Wall St and they have RDSB at fair value of £35 per share. 

I wanted to like SWS but I found too many issues. For a start was that awful black screen. Then I found that entering a transaction didn't allow for Stamp Duty and Fees. Their suggestion was to calculate an approximate share price by dividing the total transaction cost by the number of shares. And for some bizarre reason, a simple price * quantity calculation returned the wrong result.

In my book, you have to do the simple things absolutely correctly before embarking on the clever art-farty stuff.

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9 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

@ cvg I don't think they will touch your balance but you would want to carry out checks and diligence. Maybe have a 2 quid punt once a year.

For those of you who don't know they will take all your money if you keep on loosing....if you start winning semi regular they limit your stakes. If you have good Intel they make impossible for you to make a decent profit.

This was from bet365

"We are contacting you to advise that your bet365 account has been inactive for a consecutive period of 365 days and you currently have a balance.

After 365 days of inactivity your account balance will be subject to an ongoing administration fee of £2 (or currency equivalent). The first administration fee will be deducted 35 days from now and every 28 days thereafter until your balance reaches zero. No further charges will then be applied.

To avoid this fee being applied simply log back into your account.
"

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6 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

SSE dividend due today. Every little helps.

https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend-payment-dates.py

^ this is a nice site for a quick check on dates

Yes a nice thud as that one landed.Shell is my least favourite of my oilies,but its also a much lower sized holding so i added it to a 10% slice i took off Mosaic and picked up some more just over a tenner.Im 18% in the oilies now and happy to let that get to 20%.

A lot of divis landing around the 29th as well so have to decide on homes for them.

 

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3 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

Thanks enjoyed that actually a great little Youtube channel his interview with Rick Rule is good to where he talks about owning a bar and being a bouncer becoming a millionaire and losing it too bit more of a relaxed interview style. 

Jake also talks about having a kid recently in a few interviews and like here thinking about the future and wanting to move to somewhere with bit land etc.... 

Oh one other thing about Rick Rule a interview i saw with him few weeks back can't remember which one but he talked about he has been buying farmland in respect to leasing it out in the future

Yes, as i mentioned recently, it seems to me that more 'ordinary type folk', well outside of the anti-Fed/gold bug fraternity, such as Jake are becoming aware of what's ahead' 

 

re Rick Rule - was that the podcast he did with George Gammon?... where they both also spoke of buying Thermal Coal producers (for steel manufacture) as they are very cheap. Is anyone doing this?

...For those interested, I did actually go as far as looking into the main ones: Arch resources, Inner Mongolia coal, Warrior Met coal, Coal India, Teck resources (more of a conglomerate, but still interesting),

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3 hours ago, Harley said:

There's something comforting about buying a company with lots of real hard fixed assets.  Big smelly shiny things with flames, loud bangs, and all the rest.  Not the sandal wearing, latte infused intangible stuff written off in the whirl of a social cyber storm.  Like riding a Harley versus playing pretend on a Play Station.  Mother can tell you to go to bed.  But even she will respect a Harley.

 

!!!...i feared where the metaphor was going.. but still i read on to the last sentence, and my worst fears were confirmed!

However i do agree with you 100% about the commodities. (as for smelly hard fixed assets with flames, do the thermal coal miners i mention in my other post float your boat? ...genuine question btw)

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4 hours ago, CVG said:

Thinking a bit more about self sufficiency and diversification of assets in the run up to 2030, do folks have any advice on the best ways of locating woodland for sale?

I occassionally check on land on Rightmove but I don't know how many advertise on that platform. I have also come across https://www.woodlands.co.uk/ who are a company that buys large woods and sells them off in smaller parcels. Obviously they're out to profit / fund themselves and that's fine. They seem to charge around 10-12K and acre. Is this reasonable?

 

Yes £10-12K per acre is about the going rate, in the south east anyway. Oop north, and other less pricey areas of UK, it can be nearer half that amount... that was the case when we were looking about 8 years ago and it sounds like prices haven't changed that much. You will typically pay less per acre the more land you buy, and there are even some half acre/one acre plots which are very pricey for what they are...I don't see the point of those. For me, when I was working 5 days a week, I wouldn't have wanted anything bigger than our 5 acres - that was more than enough to maintain (unless you are going to outsource some of the upkeep to someone else of course). I'm working two days a week now and could probably manage something two or three times bigger, if I wanted too (which I don't). I think I read somewhere that four or five acres of broadleaf/hardwood woodland is considered just enough to provide sustainable supply of wood fuel to heat a typical house... can't remember the details/calculations though so worth bearing that in mind if that's part of the plan.

Yes, www.woodlands.co.uk and (imaginatively enough), www.forests.co.uk are the two websites where you will find most woodland sold through. Yes, we saw some on Rightmove occasionally too so worth keeping an eye on there also.

Great discussion everyone. Thank you! I can't contribute much as I am a financial dunce compared to you lot and this year has been a challenging one too... in a good way though, and following the frugal, self sufficiency themes of this thread I have been busy replacing rotten windows in my house... DIY of course! Got them done just in time before the weather and light deteriorates too much.

Anyway, back to lurker mode. Now what's all this about RDSB and BP.....

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reformed nice guy
12 hours ago, wherebee said:

So whilst I have 50kish sitting on the sidelines, ready to invest, I would not want more than than free for fear of a seizure.  I could be wrong, and thus overpaying now, but my rule of thumb with government is think of the worst thing they can do, and prepare accordingly.

This is a big fear of mine, especially with the tensions in America. If it went to shit there then all of the politicos around the world would start seizing assets like there is no tomorrow.

 

13 hours ago, Panda said:

4.8% on a share who's div has been cut by two thirds.

What a buy....

Completely agree with that and @Popuplights 

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32 minutes ago, JMD said:

Yes, as i mentioned recently, it seems to me that more 'ordinary type folk', well outside of the anti-Fed/gold bug fraternity, such as Jake are becoming aware of what's ahead' 

 

re Rick Rule - was that the podcast he did with George Gammon?... where they both also spoke of buying Thermal Coal producers (for steel manufacture) as they are very cheap. Is anyone doing this?

...For those interested, I did actually go as far as looking into the main ones: Arch resources, Inner Mongolia coal, Warrior Met coal, Coal India, Teck resources (more of a conglomerate, but still interesting),

Yes it may have been with George as i enjoy watching his videos too

 

It was along the lines of good farmland being able to lease it out in the future

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15 minutes ago, Viceroy said:


https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/18/world-economy-infrastructure-led-recovery-could-send-commodity-prices-soaring.html

 

  • The next phase of the economic recovery is likely to be driven by commodity-intensive infrastructure investment, analysts have told CNBC.

Perfect storm coming.You have a massive political problem in the west ,geo political forces at play etc.

Markets have no idea yet,but the cycle will be commod and industrial based.

 

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