Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Chewing Grass]

9 minutes ago, Harley said:

Would it not be reasonable to derisk and partially invest cash in hand in government bonds (duration?) now and fade out of these into reflation stocks in 2021?

Premium bonds, the government can print the prize money.

[DurhamBorn]

33 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Lyn Alden and Hugh Hendry going at it hammer & tong over monetary easing vs fiscal stimulus. Cracking thread: 

 

Lyn is right,its the fiscal that causes the inflation.Tax cuts maybe,but i exect direct spending from government.Then the dam bursts.

[Harley]

53 minutes ago, jamtomorrow said:

Lyn Alden and Hugh Hendry going at it hammer & tong over monetary easing vs fiscal stimulus. Cracking thread: 

Thanks for highlighting Lyn's Twitter feed.  Looks very good.  Can't see much on the debate but I'm not a user.  No issue, I'll settle for the engineer right now!

[Harley]

25 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Premium bonds, the government can print the prize money.

A possibility but limited in the case of SIPPS and ISAs and those wanting to move quickly (needs to be in the brokerage account).  Also the chance of front running a rush to bond safety come a 2021 bust and then fade to the dumped reflation stocks!

[Noallegiance]

12 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I dont do any work on house prices because they dont affect me,all my children own now.However given we are entering a rising rates cycle (with a long lag as always) there is very little chance house prices go up nominal at all.So given we are looking at around 60% to 80% inflation over the cycle then yes i think a 20% fall in nominal is likely.There are areas of the country though where prices will hold or rise,including maybe the north where i am as prices are very cheap already.

 

What happened to 1982 house prices in the south?! I want my parents style house at £600k to be £80k dammit!

[Barnsey]

2 hours ago, Harley said:

Thanks for highlighting Lyn's Twitter feed.  Looks very good.  Can't see much on the debate but I'm not a user.  No issue, I'll settle for the engineer right now!

She's definitely becoming a rising star, very balanced in her views so it's great that more are paying attention. Jeff Snider is another, and it just so happens there was a fantastic convo between them recently with George Gammon:

 

[Viceroy]

6 hours ago, jamtomorrow said:

Lyn Alden and Hugh Hendry going at it hammer & tong over monetary easing vs fiscal stimulus. Cracking thread: 

 

I've just discovered Lyn Alden thanks to the mentions on this thread. Her early life story about being homeless as a young child and living with her mother out of a car is pretty inspirational - https://www.lynalden.com/financial-freedom/

very dodsbods-esque she lives frugally but will indulge sometimes. Plus she was an MMA fighter for 12 yrs (now teaches), and gives great diet advice too! - https://www.lynalden.com/increase-energy/

[TNS]

Might have a nibble at bp at sub 230 

[Boon]

Could be a volatile day on the markets today. Down 2% already.

Vowed to get more RDSB at sub 10, don't know if I should be greedy and wait more

[DoINeedOne]

The internet is a funny thing with all these amazing people you can follow like Lyn and others here or elsewhere and learn so much growing up as a teenager i think all this info would of been amazing (no internet when i was a teenager)

But then i look at teenagers now in my family and friends families and they are to busy on social media following people acting rich its a shame as they have such an amazing opportunity to learn so much, told my nephews to learn everything they can regardless of what its about money, fixing cars, basic accounting just have some basic knowledge about most things 

Currently they gets up at 2pm in school holidays and play the Xbox sure i would be the same just when your older you look back and think of the time you wasted 

[nirvana]

US futures are getting fucked 

Found this heatmap on HL.......youinvest bit slow today, got a limit order in for RDSB at 955, might be a bit premature 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-100/heat-map

And one for the FTSE 250 - NETW down 27% whoever the eff they are

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-250/heat-map

[DurhamBorn]

18 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

The internet is a funny thing with all these amazing people you can follow like Lyn and others here or elsewhere and learn so much growing up as a teenager i think all this info would of been amazing (no internet when i was a teenager)

But then i look at teenagers now in my family and friends families and they are to busy on social media following people acting rich its a shame as they have such an amazing opportunity to learn so much, told my nephews to learn everything they can regardless of if its about money, fixing cars, basic accounting just have some basic knowledge about most things 

Currently they gets up at 2pm in school holidays and play the Xbox sure i would be the same just when your older you look back and think oft he time you wasted 

Yes its incredible how little they know considering how easy it is now to learn with the internet,in so happy actually that i lived in the time the internet happened.I think a lot is to do with growing up in an easy cycle for them.Tax credits and government jobs etc have meant very few go without,and more and more see money as easy to get for little effort.My kids have done well,but have very narrow knowledge ,my daughter who is doing very well as a nurse thought the sun went around the earth ,

[nirvana]

Youinvest are a complete load o shite 

CABLE has completely shit the bed this morning, markets not liking the £ in September.....

all my money has completely disappeared now 

 

[A tremendous # on the lung]

Does anyone have any suggestions of ETFs or funds worth looking at right now to capitalise on the the thoughts above? 

[DurhamBorn]

5 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

US futures are getting fucked 

Found this heatmap on HL.......youinvest bit slow today, got a limit order in for RDSB at 955, might be a bit premature 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-100/heat-map

And one for the FTSE 250 - NETW down 27% whoever the eff they are

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-250/heat-map

Sector rotation wont be far off and when it starts it will last a full cycle.Funny enough iv just bought a few RDSB at 9.55p .You can smell the fear ,sentiment is on the floor,government looks like a bad comedy show,covid,brexit,US Election, etc etc.Here in the UK the government seem to be doing everything they can to destroy the economy.Next move should be a big fiscal move in the US.

[leonardratso]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes its incredible how little they know considering how easy it is now to learn with the internet,in so happy actually that i lived in the time the internet happened.I think a lot is to do with growing up in an easy cycle for them.Tax credits and government jobs etc have meant very few go without,and more and more see money as easy to get for little effort.My kids have done well,but have very narrow knowledge ,my daughter who is doing very well as a nurse thought the sun went around the earth ,

it does, ill prove it when i have time.

[StrugglingMillennial]

Couldn't resist a purchase or two thise morning, i think this is a good period to buy.

[nirvana]

8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

it does, ill prove it when i have time.

i can pretend to be an accountant and prove 2+2=5

2.4+2.4 = 4.8

now round each side....

politicians and bankers use that trick too, strange that the world is so fooked up eh? 

[A tremendous # on the lung]

1 minute ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Couldn't resist a purchase or two thise morning, i think this is a good period to buy.

What did you buy?

[Boon]

Call this a weird idea, but I've started to pick up housebuilder shares. Got into TW a while back (bad timing), thinking of picking up someone else today.

Don't own a home currently, but am looking to maybe over the next few years if prices fall a bit more - 20% and I'd definitely do it.

Looking for hedges just in case government decides to do something extreme like simply pay FTB deposits. Which would be good for the builders.

[sancho panza]

On 19/09/2020 at 23:42, Popuplights said:

And Exxon continue to deny that any of this will happen. They have one green play, and that is an algae technology that is never really going to cut it. I just hope the company stays together for 4 more years, until I can retire!!

If oil hits $100,I'm not sure anyone will be worreid about XOM's green exposure.

Decl:We're long XOM but also the other oil majors for balance.

On 20/09/2020 at 04:04, Harley said:

Poorly written article.  Read a couple of those articles in a day and it'll be time for bed!  Needs another article, with a customary conclusion, clearly answering the question!  If there was ever the need for a table!  Clearly not a great communicator, leading the reader on a not so merry dance.  I think he is trying to say the answer to his question (which itself is not clear as to which period) is the US private investor and, according to the graph and despite what he says, the Fed?  Is this shocking enough to warrant the undue effort?  Er no!  The Japanese have been doing the same for yonks.  Just "debt porn"?  More interesting would be the question whether central banks are going Japanese and how that's going to work out given the Japanese experience or is this time different?

Key thing for me is the last chart.Picture paitns etc.The rise and rise of US investors(poss Mrs Watanabe effect) and the Fed points in one direction-that the days of the dollar hegemony are getting numbered.Foreign holders have barely increased their exposure with the inflation rate.

The first chart is pretty impressive too.We appear to be entering an exponentail phase.

21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think government will move from caring about keeping house prices up to caring about simply getting people out of rented into owned because they will see the massive housing benefit bill ahead if they dont.My last job i was working with several single guys in their 40s who rented and were all heading towards housing benefit etc at 68 at the latest.The budget might continue the attack on BTL and keep chipping away.

I think this also goes back to a comment you made a few pages back about the govt caring more about employment than infaltion.When reality dawns and the penny drops tht the flip side fo a few BTL capital gains is a generation of people sitting on taxpayer funds till they die,then the BTLers will be left to the wolves.

Inflation will then be left to erode middle calss mortgage debt even if there are no nominal gains.

The maths of owning in places south of the north are conclusiely against FTBing if you plan to move within ten years/have a family n need a bigger house. We rent on a 3% gross yield and the next move up will be on a 2-2.5% gross yield.

In Leicester-ffs-even a  terrace in the not so nice bit of town is £120,000,local average wage £25k

Big issue here for the Tories is that at the last election they lsot the 40-50 demogrpahic for the first time-or maybe it was 2017.Writing is on the wall if they don't get more homeowners.

18 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Proportion renting 5-10 younger is even more problematic, they have to do something, right? (Asked the anxious 35 year old still renting ) 

 

I'm 49 still renting.Not ideal but then making a £300k comitment to somewhere like Leicester is where the gambler in me sees it as a bad bet.I'd rather own BP/BT shares to be honest.

Not saying renting is ideal-it's not,lots of downsides particualrly if you're renting a 7%+ gross yield in terms of LLrisk

Big issue looming for the Tories asa bove but also society as people stop having kids.Bringing in people from abroad covers the gap for a time but there are problems that come wiht using immigration instead of natural population growth.

[nirvana]

I'm obviously losing my marbles as I'm using ISA money to buy RDSB now too 

I think I own even more cos they sent me an email but not sure......why can't these cunts make simple IT systems work?

Answer, they ain't simple anymore cos too many wankers have messed with them <sigh>

 

[christh]

43 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Youinvest are a complete load o shite 

 

Yeah, completely ballsed here. Tried a cheeky quote earlier for some BP whilst on the john (best trading place) but now on my PC the website is completely broke. They were doing some maintenance from Friday night through the weekend, probably a bodged migration or forgot to turn on some hardware. Or Mr Market is fully panicking (or it's all of us trying to score some oily mad bargainz)

[christh]

3 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

I'm obviously losing my marbles as I'm using ISA money to buy RDSB now too 

 

I had a notion to use my LISA cash - which I've kept it in cash since I opened it a few years back - for buying investment trusts or something sensible like that but this morning I'm getting weird urges to stick some Shell and BP in there now.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

US futures are getting fucked 

Found this heatmap on HL.......youinvest bit slow today, got a limit order in for RDSB at 955, might be a bit premature 

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-100/heat-map

And one for the FTSE 250 - NETW down 27% whoever the eff they are

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/stock-market-summary/ftse-250/heat-map

Whenever I view this thread I see an image of a heat map I posted and a very good down day!

https://www.dosbods.co.uk/uploads/monthly_2020_03/heatmap.thumb.jpg.11aa51fe0faffb976b462238ac8699be.jpg