Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

Nice drop on Gold too if anyone fancies it...

Disclaimer: don't forget, bottom pickers can get smelly fingers too 

 

[JMD]

22 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Does anyone have access to the natural gas v oil stats of all the main energy companies?

I think natural gas will be the 2nd best performing asset after silver in the cycle and im going to adjust up some holdings based on exposure to gas over oil.

I know Repsol has around 73% of reserves in gas and around 63% of production,but what are the others?

DB, don't know it this helps. I kept a note of the top 4 natural gas reserves by producer, when looking into this last year and believe the figures are for 2018. At the time i couldn't find a single comprehensive source report showing all stats, but different internet searches corresponded/didn't contradict, so think these are accurate. 

The other company reserves below Ovintiv were much lower/similar in size, but Ovintiv is still a standout as it is a non-major, at the time it did have large land assets - however it changed company structure late last year so now might have sold off those land assets.

Gazprom 1200tr cu feet world natural gas reserves

Exxon 85tr cu feet

BP 45tr cu feet

Ovintiv/Encana Energy 14tr cu feet                 

Would be very interested if CattleProd or others could maybe comment on figures or provide more accurate ones?

[geordie_lurch]

Wow it's brutal this morning across everything 

[christh]

Managed to put in a limit order with AJ Bell at 950p. For immediate orders the site is broken and tells you to phone them.

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Wow it's brutal this morning across everything 

I did say on Friday 'US charts looking heavy'........it's all in the charts young Jedi 

Although interestingly NASDAQ is bid at Fridays lows.....

One coulda made a fortune trading Cable and DAX this am 

[Loki]

HL working fine - just put my Rockrose sale money back into RDSB and Repsol

(It wasn't a huge amount)

[The Idiocrat]

1 minute ago, Loki said:

HL working fine - just put my Rockrose sale money back into RDSB and Repsol

(It wasn't a huge amount)

I never thought I'd see those so cheap. Too much to resist, and a bit of BP too.

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

I did say on Friday 'US charts looking heavy'........it's all in the charts young Jedi 

Although interestingly NASDAQ is bid at Fridays lows.....

One coulda made a fortune trading Cable and DAX this am 

Fed will re-engage now,lots more liquidity coming,they will want to use it for a relief package though from government,they want a fiscal injection,monetary cant turn the dis-inflation.

What do you see in sterling by the way?,mid term?,

[JREWING]

Wow...

Got some AUD coming home this week...

Hope these lows hold out till Thursday.

BP and RDSB at sub 1.3 and 9 would be me set for the next decade...

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Barnsey said:

She's definitely becoming a rising star, very balanced in her views so it's great that more are paying attention. Jeff Snider is another, and it just so happens there was a fantastic convo between them recently with George Gammon:

 

Agreed. The last 10 minutes re new reserve currency was especially interesting listen.

'Genuine commentators' like Lyn/Jeff show i think how obfuscating/lazy/irrelevant the Carribean self-exiled ex-hedgy types like Hugh Hendry are (what me jealous of his millions?; of course i am!). 

[Democorruptcy]

22 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think government will move from caring about keeping house prices up to caring about simply getting people out of rented into owned because they will see the massive housing benefit bill ahead if they dont.My last job i was working with several single guys in their 40s who rented and were all heading towards housing benefit etc at 68 at the latest.The budget might continue the attack on BTL and keep chipping away.

They have already been shifting people from rented into owned for 7 years via Help to Buy. I've always said they are paying their own benefits instead of claiming HB. It can only be a matter of time before housing equity is included in means testing.

[Tingles]

Obviously we all have our individual strategies but I cancelled my March low based limit orders (RDSB 950p, BP 235p, VOD 97p, BT.A 95p) on HL at 08.05 this morning.  Continuing with the patience route

[Boon]

Does anyone have a rough estimate of how much the UK population has in housing?

It seems to me that this is a huge source of paper wealth.

Average Joe Public may have negligible savings or investments, but a stack of equity in their house. Most of this untaxed gains from the past decade if they have held that long.

So axing private residence relief and merging with CGT may be a thing. Or alternatively a property value tax assessed once per year. People could choose to pay it now, or if they can't afford it defer it until the house is sold.

[JREWING]

2 minutes ago, Tingles said:

Obviously we all have our individual strategies but I cancelled my March low based limit orders (RDSB 950p, BP 235p, VOD 97p, BT.A 95p) on HL at 08.05 this morning.  Continuing with the patience route

Good call.

Me's thinking how low can you go...

Just hope the rally don't come too soon.

Over 5% yield on the Oilies with a two thirds divi cut in the rear view.

Screaming buy buy.

But out of ammo today.

[geordie_lurch]

Maybe this is the BK or just the start  RDSB and others are at all time lows from what I can see 

[christh]

8 minutes ago, Panda said:

Good call.

Me's thinking how low can you go...

 

I sat out the 2008-2009 crash waiting for the lows - in the end hardly deployed any cash until years later. Been laddering in this time; lesson learned.

[JREWING]

3 minutes ago, christh said:

I sat out the 2008-2009 crash waiting for the lows - in the end hardly deployed any cash until years later. Been laddering in this time; lesson learned.

Yep me too.

Laddered in at 10.30 thought hell yes.

Then 10.17. Fooking big hard on.

Then 9.99. Hell the missus is in heaven.

Today. Well commuth Wednesday if these lows hold.

Her ankle alarms will be a ringing that loud because there so far above her tits the circuits blown.....

[DoINeedOne]

I just have to keep reminding myself that I'm holding these for years current savings account interest is 0.01% some of these companies are paying 4%+ dividends and whilst the price is dropping those dividends can buy more

What the price and my ROI is when i come to sell is the main concern 

 

Also saw this on twitter 

Only had £50 left in Premium bonds as i cashed most of it out last year to buy silver , Just withdrew that last £50 might as well buy some beers and some steaks 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes its incredible how little they know considering how easy it is now to learn with the internet, in so happy actually that i lived in the time the internet happened.I think a lot is to do with growing up in an easy cycle for them.Tax credits and government jobs etc have meant very few go without,and more and more see money as easy to get for little effort.My kids have done well,but have very narrow knowledge ,my daughter who is doing very well as a nurse thought the sun went around the earth ,

Bit off-topic maybe, but i agree DB, and the internet does put our Western education systems to shame. Back on inflation/deflation topic - and as internet learning is substantially free - the whole learning infrastructure is massively deflationary, especially once university training goes more and more online.  

I would particularly highlight internet podcasts, which are easy to listen to for the 'causual learner', and so many around these days. I've recently discovered Lex Fridman, he is a Russian emigree to US, now working in AI at MIT. It is Fridman's 2nd language, so bit formal style, but also i think an example of how formidable those Russians really are - No wonder they consider themselves the last outpost/saviour of the West!!

This might not be best example of Fridman, but Tesla is mentioned a lot on here, so i chose this one. Well worth looking up his other ones.

 

[Democorruptcy]

27 minutes ago, Panda said:

Good call.

Me's thinking how low can you go...

Just hope the rally don't come too soon.

Over 5% yield on the Oilies with a two thirds divi cut in the rear view.

Screaming buy buy.

But out of ammo today.

A better call would have been to buy them and sell at the subsequent highs, e.g. the 9.50 RDSB went up to 14.86 on 7th April

[JREWING]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

A better call would have been to buy them and sell at the subsequent highs, e.g. the 9.50 RDSB went up to 14.86 on 7th April

I'm not that bright...

This is brutal for the grey brigade..https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1338085/nsi-nsandi-interest-rates-premium-bonds-income-savings-accounts

 

 

 

[Democorruptcy]

2 minutes ago, Panda said:

I'm not that bright...

This is brutal for the grey brigade..https://www.express.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/1338085/nsi-nsandi-interest-rates-premium-bonds-income-savings-accounts

Bit greyist mate.

I have a 2.5% bond that matures in Nov, they have removed the early withdrawal option on those (was -90 days interest). I won't be renewing but was going to put it into an easy access Income Bond for now. Today those were reduced from 1.15 to 0.01

I can't put my house money into oil? Somebody tie my hands behind my back

[DoINeedOne]

[Ma2]

Shell making the right noises to the market on renewables, linked to share price drops I wonder. Often forget about their service station business...

https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-shell-costs-exclusive/exclusive-shell-launches-major-cost-cutting-drive-to-prepare-for-energy-transition-idUKKCN26C0GI

[DurhamBorn]

3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

As an example, I did a free online course at Stanford University a few years ago, directly applicable to my work. It was exactly the same course as is taught at the university, and in fact the lectures were a recording of the face to face class on campus, and the guy delivering it was the guy who literally wrote the book on how to do that particular niche ("Reservoir Geomechanics" by Mark Zoback). That course has helped me in my work more than my degrees. 

Did I say it was free?! 

I've nothing really to add on the natural gas side. I still think Repsol or Gazprom are best for major exposure. Energean is almost all Mediterranean gas and Chevron has recently bought Noble for Med gas too.

That Repsol find in Indonesia looks incredible,and likely a lot more even than they are saying so far.

I got around to listening to Shells 2nd quarter results yesterday and the questions were very revealing.They pretty much said they intend to control hydrogen in Europe and instead of sound bites and simply buying assets they are planning the full eco-system.I think thats why they have won the  Hollandse Kust windfarm tender.They are going to use that to produce hydrogen in Rotterdam i think.Then they will use that to power their huge Pernis refinery.They are creating a full ecosystem that they can use themselves,then scale up.They are making fantastic moves,but without thunder,and in a careful way.Its like when they bought Eolfi the floating wind farm specialist,they are slowly adding the skills to join to their own.

I think Shell will control hydrogen in Northern Europe from wind and from natural gas conversion/carbon capture,Repsol similar in Spain but with solar more in the mix,BP the UK and maybe the east coast of the northern US.

They are putting down the right base to invest into as free cash explodes later in the cycle.Shell have already bought electricity distribution companies in the UK and Australia,and it will be interesting to see if they all exand on this.It could be they move later in the cycle with share and cash offers.

I hope the sector can stay under pressure for a good while yet as id like to direct divis flowing in to it.