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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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22 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

As an example, I did a free online course at Stanford University a few years ago, directly applicable to my work. It was exactly the same course as is taught at the university, and in fact the lectures were a recording of the face to face class on campus, and the guy delivering it was the guy who literally wrote the book on how to do that particular niche ("Reservoir Geomechanics" by Mark Zoback). That course has helped me in my work more than my degrees. 

Did I say it was free?! 

I've nothing really to add on the natural gas side. I still think Repsol or Gazprom are best for major exposure. Energean is almost all Mediterranean gas and Chevron has recently bought Noble for Med gas too.

I did a free course (it was the lecture handouts and recorded videos that had been uploaded to the internet so I just watched/read them without having to pay a fortune to sit exams) a few years ago of the Yale University course on Financial Markets run by Robert Shiller, who’s one of those professors that you’d pay good money to listen to. 

Eni have been focusing more and more on natural gas over the past few years too.

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42 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

I just have to keep reminding myself that I'm holding these for years current savings account interest is 0.01% some of these companies are paying 4%+ dividends and whilst the price is dropping those dividends can buy more

What the price and my ROI is when i come to sell is the main concern 

 

Also saw this on twitter 

Only had £50 left in Premium bonds as i cashed most of it out last year to buy silver , Just withdrew that last £50 might as well buy some beers and some steaks 

NS&I Tossers.  I only just finished moving cash into there to get the 1%.

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Just now, Castlevania said:

I did a course (it was the lecture handouts and recorded videos that had been uploaded to the internet) a few years ago of the Yale University course on Financial Markets run by Robert Schiller, who’s one of those professors that you’d pay good money to listen to. 

Eni have been focusing more and more on natural gas over the past few years too.

They have just found a load of gas off Egypt as well,with BP holding 25%.I think we will see big investment in carbon capture so that the gas can be used.

https://oilandgasclimateinitiative.com/bp-eni-equinor-shell-and-total-form-consortium-to-develop-the-net-zero-teesside-project-and-accelerate-potential-of-uks-first-zero-carbon-cluster/

Right on my doorstep.Big oil/gas will get behind it as its vital to them.

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whoah a big sea of red there.

Answer me this - if the only transaction cost for my trade is about 10 bucks, why should I not sell the shell I bought a few weeks ago and buy it again immediately, to generate a paper loss which I can then offset against tax for the current financial year?

 

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Sounds a bit busy out there!  Alas, have a warped door to fix.  Priorities my son.  Glad I bought some bonds last week though.

Disclosure: Was up at 05:00 this morning though polishing my watchlist!  :)

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4 minutes ago, wherebee said:

whoah a big sea of red there.

Answer me this - if the only transaction cost for my trade is about 10 bucks, why should I not sell the shell I bought a few weeks ago and buy it again immediately, to generate a paper loss which I can then offset against tax for the current financial year?

 

Depends if tax laws allow it. In the U.K. you can’t do that - if you buy back a stock within a month of selling then there’s no capital gain/loss.

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7 minutes ago, wherebee said:

whoah a big sea of red there.

Answer me this - if the only transaction cost for my trade is about 10 bucks, why should I not sell the shell I bought a few weeks ago and buy it again immediately, to generate a paper loss which I can then offset against tax for the current financial year?

 

What's the ATO like regarding the deprivation of assets...That would be my only concern...

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5 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Depends if tax laws allow it. In the U.K. you can’t do that - if you buy back a stock within a month of selling then there’s no capital gain/loss.

You can sell Shell and buy BP, though :)

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6 minutes ago, kibuc said:

You can sell Shell and buy BP, though :)

Yes. There’s also nothing to stop you from shifting between a taxable account and an ISA. So for example if you held Shell in a taxable account and BP in an ISA you could sell both, and replace with the other to crystallise a loss in the taxable account.

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24 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Depends if tax laws allow it. In the U.K. you can’t do that - if you buy back a stock within a month of selling then there’s no capital gain/loss.

looks like under australian law if you hold for less than 12 months you lose some of the benefits in relation to CGT on profits, but nothing I can see about a minimum holding period...

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

IMG_8590_2.thumb.jpg.4c554175501e843b5610bb34bfce0e32.jpg

Reminds me of the Ayn Rand quote: 'You can ignore reality, but you cant ignore the consequences of ignoring reality'. She was a right wing philosopher, who also wrote Altas Shrugged, so hated by the left intelligentsia.

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

I just have to keep reminding myself that I'm holding these for years current savings account interest is 0.01% some of these companies are paying 4%+ dividends and whilst the price is dropping those dividends can buy more

What the price and my ROI is when i come to sell is the main concern 

 

Also saw this on twitter 

Only had £50 left in Premium bonds as i cashed most of it out last year to buy silver , Just withdrew that last £50 might as well buy some beers and some steaks 

Interesting timing with MPC rate decision on Nov 5th ;)

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Bit off topic, I'm working in Norway through the London office but currently get paid in GBP, I have been transferred to the Norwegian office and now have the option of being paid in NOK.

Future predictions for NOK v GBP?

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12 minutes ago, JMD said:

Reminds me of the Ayn Rand quote: 'You can ignore reality, but you cant ignore the consequences of ignoring reality'. She was a right wing philosopher, who also wrote Altas Shrugged, so hated by the left intelligentsia.

Currently grinding my way through the Audible version of it (my second try). I recommended it to a buddy of mine earlier this year and he devoured it within a couple of weeks. Cracking and indeed prophetic stuff.

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7 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Bit off topic, I'm working in Norway through the London office but currently get paid in GBP, I have been transferred to the Norwegian office and now have the option of being paid in NOK.

Future predictions for NOK v GBP?

Did you not post this same question some time ago with the response being "get paid in NOK"?

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2 minutes ago, Option5 said:

Bit off topic, I'm working in Norway through the London office but currently get paid in GBP, I have been transferred to the Norwegian office and now have the option of being paid in NOK.

Future predictions for NOK v GBP?

NOK is a petrocurrency. I think you work in oil and gas so there’s wrong way risk there but really depends on you’re outgoings and in what currency they’re in. If you spend most of your salary in NOK then makes sense to get paid in NOK, conversely if you save a large chunk and/or have GBP commitments then it could make sense to be paid in GBP. Depends if you’re a gambler, and what you believe that oil will do over the next few years.

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

I just have to keep reminding myself that I'm holding these for years current savings account interest is 0.01% some of these companies are paying 4%+ dividends and whilst the price is dropping those dividends can buy more

What the price and my ROI is when i come to sell is the main concern 

 

Also saw this on twitter 

Only had £50 left in Premium bonds as i cashed most of it out last year to buy silver , Just withdrew that last £50 might as well buy some beers and some steaks 

FFS.  I've recently just parked a load of money in income bonds until things settle down a bit.  Tempted to just go all in PMs now.

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1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

As an example, I did a free online course at Stanford University a few years ago, directly applicable to my work. It was exactly the same course as is taught at the university, and in fact the lectures were a recording of the face to face class on campus, and the guy delivering it was the guy who literally wrote the book on how to do that particular niche ("Reservoir Geomechanics" by Mark Zoback). That course has helped me in my work more than my degrees. 

The whole area of 'home learning' is an exciting topic i think. Not just the economics/cost angle. But also which subjects, etc, individuals will choose to learn, plus the realisation that lots of academic knowledge has been sidelined/suppressed for political reasons in recent decades. In terms of cost, Encyclopedia Brittanica in the 80's cost approx. £1000, however by the 90's Brittanica could be bought for £100 on CD, and today better higher quality content is free on the internet. But finding a sustainable business model is also important.     

I was hoping Prof. Jordan Peterson (Canadian, anti 'compelled speech' activist), would have made some progress toward his idea of doing an online University. His plans sounded very ambitious. He wanted to react against the left's hamstringing of much of modern day academic learning at the Universities. However, he has been fighting ill health due to his pain killer addiction (and more recently covid), i admit his addiction surprised me as didn't think he was the type to get caught up/out(?) in the anti-depressant/pain-killer epidemic hitting North America.

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31 minutes ago, christh said:

Currently grinding my way through the Audible version of it (my second try). I recommended it to a buddy of mine earlier this year and he devoured it within a couple of weeks. Cracking and indeed prophetic stuff.

Impressive, I just didn't realise how long it's going to be when I started 2 weeks ago!  Still, good book and annoyingly more relevant than ever

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you know the traded 24/7 crypto is a great frontrunner for these falls, they dip down consistently before these bad days start.

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1 hour ago, Cosmic Apple said:

Did you not post this same question some time ago with the response being "get paid in NOK"?

Yes, but that was with regard to Brexit, this is taking Coronavirus into the equation.

My transfer was postponed due to lockdown and is now back on.

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1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

NOK is a petrocurrency. I think you work in oil and gas so there’s wrong way risk there but really depends on you’re outgoings and in what currency they’re in. If you spend most of your salary in NOK then makes sense to get paid in NOK, conversely if you save a large chunk and/or have GBP commitments then it could make sense to be paid in GBP. Depends if you’re a gambler, and what you believe that oil will do over the next few years.

Outgoings are split 50/50 between GBP and NOK at present.

I won't pretend that I understand exchange rates or what drives them so I've put it out to see if anyone on here does understand than.

I know it's my risk, DYOR etc. But I'm interested in others opinions.

I'm leaning towards NOK simply because I think any worldwide recession will hit the UK hard and Norway less.

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