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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

What do you see in sterling by the way?,mid term?

I try not to predict anymore, just gets me into trouble xD

I have enough trouble when I miss the breaks then I think I can 'buy the bottom' o.O

Bottom pickers on Gold got reamed this morning, its trying to form a base at 1911 but if that can't hold it's going to the 1800s again methinks

Did somebody mention 10k Gold last week? :P

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

you know the traded 24/7 crypto is a great frontrunner for these falls, they dip down consistently before these bad days start.

Interesting.....'they' have been holding the Nasdaq up......why???

Made me think, would you buy a phone from this dodgy git? cunt.jpeg.8dec779f2720b51201f56d0b26d2027b.jpeg

PS GOLD has had it, TIMBER!!!!!!

 

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Popuplights

Popuplights

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

-4% gold

-9% silver

I think I will be buying a small slice of the miners soon

Anything particular in mind?

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Sasquatch

Sasquatch

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, kibuc said:

You have to hand it to silver, when it goes then it fucking GOES.

It certainly does. I'm much less bothered about this drop though compared to the last one. Must be getting numb to it! 

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christh

christh

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

lol @Hardhat

I happen to believe that @DurhamBornis an excellent 'trader' as well as a top 'investor'

He just doesn't like to admit to the trader bit ;) Time for another coffee?

<sexy coffee.jpg>

 

I see your sexy coffee and raise you this bit of 2010 action? Sorry guys, charting very much not part of macro investing.

image.thumb.png.3d0568966ba45fc3d69b7ad027667aef.png

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted

@christhnice chart dude but I'm on the 5mins again I'm afraid 9_9

Need some music......best opening lyrics ever?

Son I'm 30, I only went with your mother cos she's dirty...

 

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DurhamBorn

DurhamBorn

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

lol @Hardhat

I happen to believe that @DurhamBornis an excellent 'trader' as well as a top 'investor'

He just doesn't like to admit to the trader bit ;) Time for another coffee?

 

EDxkNEhW4AEs5Rl.jpeg

Never trade,just happens that iv taken a lot of profits from the PM sector (and quite a lot in potash)the last month or so and my silver target of $28 does seem to of been a decent mid term call.From the start of this thread iv always said id be happy if when im fully allocated my portfolio turns with a loss of 20% or less and thanks to PMs its still in front slightly.This is a cycle turn,not a business cycle,a dis-inflation/reflation one,and its a violent affair.Very close now though to where i wont be selling anything for around 8 years,apart from maybe the odd skim if i want anything new etc.Im not actually that far away now where i could not even look at the market for months on end.My biggest mistakes in the past have been selling far too early,and that has cost me multitudes more than buying a bit early.

Sector rotation will start from here i think,maybe a couple of months,but it will last 8 to 10 years.Expect a big fiscal pump from governments inbound,you know very well thats why the Fed etc has kept its foot on the longer end ;)

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BurntBread

BurntBread

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

What they didn't say about Venezuela is that you can't just leave all that kit sitting there, especially in a tropical humid country. If you shut oil and gas stuff down, it takes a long time to get it cleaned/fixed/patched up again, and is often cheaper to scrap. If this goes on much longer, Venezuela will have to start over again once the regime changes, like Iraq did. It took Iraq 8 years from 2003-2011 to get production back to pre war rates, and that was with every super major piling in with hundreds of billions of dollars. It's increasingly likely that Venezuela is out of the equation for the cycle to come.

 

 

Might this actually be very fortuitous timing?

Assuming the super-majors have a lot of free cash flow in a few years, they might devote some of it to getting Venezuela back on-stream. That could mean a bit of an oil glut in about 10 years, which could help to cushion what @DurhamBorn and David Hunter expect otherwise to be a very, very nasty period.

Obviously, a lot of moving parts need to come together coincidentally, but maybe this will be part of the analysis leading up to the "greatest depression" in 2030.

The other thing I'm wondering is whether crypto starts to establish itself as an actual currency soon, in the sense that businesses start writing contracts partially hedged in crypto against inflation. I'm wondering if that might tie governments' hands a bit, and mean they cannot let inflation run quite as hot for quite so long. 

I looked at a BTC chart recently, and (with very very low expectations) I was surprised at how "stable" it has been, at least compared to the meteoric rise from 10 years ago. Maybe it was the eye of faith, a slight tendency to think of things logarithmically, and also having looked at my stagecoach shares recently.

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Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, BurntBread said:

Might this actually be very fortuitous timing?

Assuming the super-majors have a lot of free cash flow in a few years, they might devote some of it to getting Venezuela back on-stream. That could mean a bit of an oil glut in about 10 years, which could help to cushion what @DurhamBorn and David Hunter expect otherwise to be a very, very nasty period.

Obviously, a lot of moving parts need to come together coincidentally, but maybe this will be part of the analysis leading up to the "greatest depression" in 2030.

The other thing I'm wondering is whether crypto starts to establish itself as an actual currency soon, in the sense that businesses start writing contracts partially hedged in crypto against inflation. I'm wondering if that might tie governments' hands a bit, and mean they cannot let inflation run quite as hot for quite so long. 

I looked at a BTC chart recently, and (with very very low expectations) I was surprised at how "stable" it has been, at least compared to the meteoric rise from 10 years ago. Maybe it was the eye of faith, a slight tendency to think of things logarithmically, and also having looked at my stagecoach shares recently.

BTC and ETH have been incorporated into funds now, so the movements pretty much follow the S&P500 to a tee. This has stabilised the volatility (as much as the stock market is stable)

I think eventually it will be used like a digital PM ETF without the need to back with physical assets (digital vs digital after all) as an important allocation sector to hedge against inflation. The major exchanges are regulated and with the inherent blockchain movements can be audit trailed.

The latest DeFi will be regulated out of existence. They can’t stop it but will black/whitelist all addresses at exchanges. The banks can’t allow the plebs to use their own made up money taking them out of the equation after all.

https://cointelegraph.com/news/regulatory-risks-grow-for-defi-as-a-money-laundering-haven

Maybe in a post-apocalyptic dystopian future (once skynet is online) we’ll have a few former zoomer generations logging on to private ‘illegal’ pirate networks trading a couple DeFi sushi for a bbq’d rat.

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Chewing Grass

Chewing Grass

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

Government axes rail franchising after 24 years

https://www.railmagazine.com/news/network/government-axes-rail-franchising-after-24-years


“It will keep the best elements of the private sector, including competition and investment, that have helped to drive growth, but deliver strategic direction, leadership and accountability.”

Sure it will...

 

Basically its back to being British Rail, Network Rail always was.

Now they are just going to rent the rolling stock (Private Equity) and pay somebody to look after it (BREL).

“Our new deal for rail demands more for passengers. It will simplify people’s journeys, ending the uncertainty and confusion about whether you are using the right ticket or the right train company."

"These new agreements represent the end of the complicated franchising system, demand more from the expertise and skills of the private sector, and ensure passengers return to a more punctual and co-ordinated railway.”

What goes around, comes around, it will be power generation and energy companies next as the government already owns the distribution system (just like the railway track).

Nationalisation in all but name for political reasons.

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Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

Government axes rail franchising after 24 years

https://www.railmagazine.com/news/network/government-axes-rail-franchising-after-24-years


“It will keep the best elements of the private sector, including competition and investment, that have helped to drive growth, but deliver strategic direction, leadership and accountability.”

Sure it will...

 

£700 million a month and tax payers on the hook for the shortfall until 2022.

https://www.ft.com/content/e8036a24-5a05-43eb-8e6a-f5a659d2e5a2

There won’t be many tax payers left so good luck.

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leonardratso

leonardratso

Posted
Posted

anyone ever consider that all this might be totally wrong?

whats the plan if it all fails to materialise and we just have a slow sideways or downwards grind for the decade?

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