Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JREWING]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54241580

Up to Level 4.

5 is lockdown.

Commons Statement tomorrow.

Maybe Nationwide Lockdown looming.

Could be some buying opportunities this week?

Breaking March lows.

[StrugglingMillennial]

10 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

anyone ever consider that all this might be totally wrong?

whats the plan if it all fails to materialise and we just have a slow sideways or downwards grind for the decade?

To put it simply, yes.

But to be honest i can't see the government missing a chance like this, not if they want to get voted in again.

[Popuplights]

15 minutes ago, Panda said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54241580

Up to Level 4.

5 is lockdown.

Commons Statement tomorrow.

Maybe Nationwide Lockdown looming.

Could be some buying opportunities this week?

Breaking March lows.

I'm keeping my powder dry

[Loki]

20 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

anyone ever consider that all this might be totally wrong?

whats the plan if it all fails to materialise and we just have a slow sideways or downwards grind for the decade?

I've had the same thought, I even asked durhamborn the same way back "What if they don't?" and although possible  it wasn't a reasonable option compared to the reflation.

That said no-one is going to convince me we can restart a booming infrastructure reflation while COVID hysteria and regulations are in effect.

[geordie_lurch]

17 minutes ago, Loki said:

I've had the same thought, I even asked durhamborn the same way back "What if they don't?" and although possible  it wasn't a reasonable option compared to the reflation.

That said no-one is going to convince me we can restart a booming infrastructure reflation while COVID hysteria and regulations are in effect.

I get where you guys are coming from as the current situation reminds me of when I bought a house in 2008 when everyone, even outside TOS, thought I was mad and said I should stay STR. Thankfully 12 years later that house was the best financial decision I ever made for myself and my family out of necessity really. 

However back then no one thought (or published such thoughts online as far as I'm aware?) that the Government and central banks would somehow manage to kick the can down the road of all this crap for so long by dropping interest rates to record lows and even taking them negative. On top of this we now have covid which might be a once in a century event coupled now with even more money printing and living in a possible fourth industrial / AI revolution which raises the stakes and uncertainties even higher than last time IMHO.

However even given all the above, I think this thread has and continues to be an amazing source of inspiration, advice and thoughts but at the end of the day DYOR as everyone always says and only invest what you can live with taking a large loss on as nothing is certain in normal times never mind now.

[Bricks & Mortar]

15 minutes ago, Loki said:

I've had the same thought, I even asked durhamborn the same way back "What if they don't?" and although possible  it wasn't a reasonable option compared to the reflation.

That said no-one is going to convince me we can restart a booming infrastructure reflation while COVID hysteria and regulations are in effect.

Yeah.  I remember that discussion.  Basically, the Central Bank is going to go to the politicians in every country, and ask if they'd like to spend a shit-tonne of money and have a chance of 'saving' the economy in the eyes of the voters?  Or if they'd like to give it a miss and be remembered forever as the ones who finally fucked it?

[JREWING]

I'm right behind DB.

I'm a renter, my choice. I do not want to own, I Iike fluidity as being stuck somewhere forever, well it just ain't me. Life's short, memories are wealth.

Cash on deposit is a joke. DB has offered some advice. I'm big enough and old enough to make my own decision. I like to think I'm thinking clearly.

Own something that is the economy, is something of value. 

I'm not a big fan of gold or silver.

But oil and gas I am.

These lows are once in a lifetime buy's for me post 50. 

No brainer for me. 7%. Yield on BP and the current Divi. £50k towards the house. Nope I'll take the divi. It's paying the rent on my half rather than owning the place and stuck here.

If your happy doing what you're doing then whatever the outcome. Your happy your choice...

[Errol]

10 minutes ago, Panda said:

I'm not a big fan of gold or silver.

You don't need to be a big fan. Just have 5-10% of your funds in gold/silver. Put the rest into whatever you like.

Big fans of gold/silver will have closer to 80% (or even more) in gold/silver.

[jamtomorrow]

New installment up on Surplus Energy: https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/

... complete with this zinger on the absurd times we're living through:

Had Daniel Defoe’s Robinson Crusoe, shipwrecked on his desert island, only known about classical economics, he wouldn’t have wasted his efforts finding water, food, firewood and shelter, but would instead have spent his time accumulating bits of coloured paper. Indeed, had computers existed in 1719, he wouldn’t even have needed the paper.

[leonardratso]

you are of course correct logically, i get the odd niggle looking at all the red and chasing losses but then i manage to calm down and look at it in a more balanced way, that cash im not using anyway, ive already like i said before written it out (rather than off) and if it never existed im not going to miss it, got to limit myself though otherwise ill bet the farm, and we cant have that, thhat way lies ruin and madness.....

[Dogtania]

Last time silver crashed in march along with everything else it was impossible to buy anything.  I had wanted to divest (what little i have) out of the toilet paper currency that slowly increases in my wallet but always on my mind thinking is this real?  Is the destination the shitter?

So happily increased slightly my loot.  Skin in the game and all that.  Didn't pay too much attention to prices and won't either going forward in the near term.  Just saw the sudden drop as an excuse.  Sure it will drop more especially since I've been involved but not sure any would have been available by then anyway?

[CVG]

9 hours ago, Errol said:

Big fans of gold/silver will have closer to 80% (or even more) in gold/silver.

Gut wrenching, but chapeau!

[Castlevania]

11 hours ago, Loki said:

I've had the same thought, I even asked durhamborn the same way back "What if they don't?" and although possible  it wasn't a reasonable option compared to the reflation.

That said no-one is going to convince me we can restart a booming infrastructure reflation while COVID hysteria and regulations are in effect.

It does give Rishi Sunak the opportunity to be truly radical in the forthcoming budget. He should take the opportunity, I’m not convinced he will.

[DurhamBorn]

Hydrogen again.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54242176

These massive hubs will be crucial.

https://www.greentechmedia.com/articles/read/shell-exploring-worlds-largest-green-hydrogen-project

 

[Bricormortis]

3 hours ago, CVG said:

Gut wrenching, but chapeau!

Mange tout Rodney, mange tout.

[NogintheNog]

 

 

19 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Never trade,just happens that iv taken a lot of profits from the PM sector (and quite a lot in potash)the last month or so and my silver target of $28 does seem to of been a decent mid term call.From the start of this thread iv always said id be happy if when im fully allocated my portfolio turns with a loss of 20% or less and thanks to PMs its still in front slightly.This is a cycle turn,not a business cycle,a dis-inflation/reflation one,and its a violent affair.Very close now though to where i wont be selling anything for around 8 years,apart from maybe the odd skim if i want anything new etc.Im not actually that far away now where i could not even look at the market for months on end.My biggest mistakes in the past have been selling far too early,and that has cost me multitudes more than buying a bit early.

Sector rotation will start from here i think,maybe a couple of months,but it will last 8 to 10 years.Expect a big fiscal pump from governments inbound,you know very well thats why the Fed etc has kept its foot on the longer end 

Peter Schiff on oil. (38 minutes in - check out his analysis for the future).

https://youtu.be/MQ6Rkd6RQJw?t=2279

[DurhamBorn]

22 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

 

 

Peter Schiff on oil. (38 minutes in - check out his analysis for the future).

https://youtu.be/MQ6Rkd6RQJw?t=2279

Supply crunch 2021 to 2023 sets up a huge cycle upswing.Oil is going to $200 minimum,$300 maybe,$350 an outlier.Natural gas should see 300% to 500% gains as well.2028ish,maybe out to 2030.There is risk we see one last downswing to shake out the last weak hands.Nobody should be thinking about selling the big integrated before oil hits at least $150.I think the big oil/gas integrated are on roughly 3x free cash flow mid cycle.They could be on 1.5x at peak price.

Hopefully they stay down a while yet,lovely place for any dividends landing in accounts.

[janch]

Message on AJ Bell today:

Important information: We are currently experiencing issues with paying cash withdrawals. If you have recently requested a cash withdrawal, there may be a delay in paying this to you. Please don’t try to request another withdrawal. We are working urgently to resolve these problems. We are sorry for any inconvenience this may cause.

 

Hmmm.........may be nothing especially because they did something on their network over the weekend and lucky I don't need to cash anything  in today but I know some on here have been worried about confiscation etc.  I don't think it will be so overt.....just a more subtle making you wait longer or limits to what you can withdraw both in government and private sector savings/ISAs etc.

NS&I have also been having problems recently and have been very slow which they say is because their staff are working from home.

Just sayin'

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, janch said:

Message on AJ Bell today:

Important information: We are currently experiencing issues with paying cash withdrawals. If you have recently requested a cash withdrawal, there may be a delay in paying this to you. Please don’t try to request another withdrawal. We are working urgently to resolve these problems. We are sorry for any inconvenience this may cause.

 

Hmmm.........may be nothing especially because they did something on their network over the weekend and lucky I don't need to cash anything  in today but I know some on here have been worried about confiscation etc.  I don't think it will be so overt.....just a more subtle making you wait longer or limits to what you can withdraw both in government and private sector savings/ISAs etc.

NS&I have also been having problems recently and have been very slow which they say is because their staff are working from home.

Just sayin'

Noticed a new button appear on one of my online banking accounts yesterday, never seen it before, but now I have read the above my curiosity has been raised.

It was green and said 'Transfer Limit' on it.

I shall have to go and have another look now.

[Harley]

4 hours ago, janch said:

Message on AJ Bell today:

Important information: We are currently experiencing issues with paying cash withdrawals. If you have recently requested a cash withdrawal, there may be a delay in paying this to you. Please don’t try to request another withdrawal. We are working urgently to resolve these problems. We are sorry for any inconvenience this may cause.

 

Hmmm.........may be nothing especially because they did something on their network over the weekend and lucky I don't need to cash anything  in today but I know some on here have been worried about confiscation etc.  I don't think it will be so overt.....just a more subtle making you wait longer or limits to what you can withdraw both in government and private sector savings/ISAs etc.

NS&I have also been having problems recently and have been very slow which they say is because their staff are working from home.

Just sayin'

My bank being difficult too.  Claiming my beneficiary bank was not set up in the system when they clearly were.  Partner's bank also going to give a contextual pop up for each transfer based on the reason you (have to!) give for the transfer.  Apparently to help prevent fraud!

[Harley]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Natural gas should see 300% to 500% gains as well.

Nat gas popped up on my terminal today as one of the highest volume/appreciating ETFs!

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Noticed a new button appear on one of my online banking accounts yesterday, never seen it before, but now I have read the above my curiosity has been raised.

It was green and said 'Transfer Limit' on it.

I shall have to go and have another look now.

Bail-in ready, so you cannot move it all out?

[Harley]

4 hours ago, janch said:

Hmmm.........may be nothing especially because they did something on their network over the weekend and lucky I don't need to cash anything  in today but I know some on here have been worried about confiscation etc.  I don't think it will be so overt.....just a more subtle making you wait longer or limits to what you can withdraw both in government and private sector savings/ISAs etc.

So some software upgrade/modification over the weekend potentially in the area of transfers out!.  Nothing to see here, just to prevent fraud, stop the tupperists, and protect the NHS!

[Chewing Grass]

9 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Bail-in ready, so you cannot move it all out?

Been back to have a look and it was 25K domestic and 10K foreign.

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Been back to have a look and it was 25K domestic and 10K foreign.

Are you saying your bank limits your transfers to these amounts?  Daily limits?  One of the major UK banks?