Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[DurhamBorn]

8 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

It’s not just Apollo. Caesars have also made an offer for William Hill.

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/top-news-william-hill-confirms-buyout-offers-from-apollo-caesars-uy6wi17elzre2e8.html

Once again shows the lunacy here in the UK.We lead the industry in gaming firms,a huge growth area,and now they will all be bought up by US companies.GVC and Playtech are the two with the software alongside Hills,so likely they are in the firing line now as well.The government signed them off to be taken over when they were too heavy handed on machines etc.Just more tax they can kiss goodbye.

Its amazing when you look down the FTSE 350 at just how much rubbish is in there,and how we seem unable to allow companies to become dominating,they are always taken out early.

[Castlevania]

1 minute ago, DurhamBorn said:

Once again shows the lunacy here in the UK.We lead the industry in gaming firms,a huge growth area,and now they will all be bought up by US companies.GVC and Playtech are the two with the software alongside Hills,so likely they are in the firing line now as well.The government signed them off to be taken over when they were too heavy handed on machines etc.Just more tax they can kiss goodbye.

Its amazing when you look down the FTSE 350 at just how much rubbish is in there,and how we seem unable to allow companies to become dominating,they are always taken out early.

Yes I agree. You compare and contrast to the US where they will do everything to support their dominant industries. 

Hopefully there’ll be a bidding war, so at least we receive an ok price given their growth prospects.

[jamtomorrow]

2 hours ago, sancho panza said:

It is sector wide,Total hasn't sold off as much as the rest.But XOM/RDSB/BP/ENI/REP all plumbing March lows.

What *is* up with that? I'd love to snap up some Total, but seems like they've been granted some sort of pass by Mr. Market.

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Panda said:

Good luck buddy, I like your style...

I did the same with RDSB last week. Balls deep. Proper balls deep.
 

Never quite worked for me, but I keep thinking 4.7% divi compared to 0.7% yield on a conventional savings account.

I'm not selling so its just a number on a screen...

Just remember your building soc goes `tits up` and you still have £85k, your oil company goes `tits up` you may only have `what ifs`!

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, Harley said:

Spurred on by @Popuplights (again, many thanks) I rescanned (using Investing.com) the "OIl & Gas Operations" industry last night and BP failed the first cut on the basis of their 124% Total Debt to Equity ratio.  The UK industry average is about 44%.  BP are outliers in the range.

Not that I can make much sense of the Total Debt to Equity figures.  Shares listed in the UK (Total, RDS, etc) show one figure but another looking at them in their home exchange.  I wish sites like Investing.com would explain how they derived their figures.

May have this wrong, but its not the Debt to Equity ratio thats necessarily the issue (within limits), but when the debt is due I.e current vs non-current I.e two companies, one has debt of £1m (£100k current), second has debt of £500k (£400k current), is the second the best when a recession hits turnover/profits in the short term?

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Gambling coming under the governbankment spotlight, anything that's doing well has to be punished! Maybe they would prefer the money going towards mortgage payments to banks?

 

To be fair,it would be nice if the industry was regulated better.AS I've said before,I effectively got banned off betfair for having good results in my niche but if I'd have been gambling my kids dinner moeny away I would have been allowed to stay.

I think exchanges should be regulated in a similar manner to stock markets ie the bookies can't pick who they take their bets from.Liquidity levels should be published so if I'm looking at an event on say ladbrokes eg US presidential,ladbrokes are foreced to advertise what they'll take at what price.

There's a real opportunity here to level the playing field for retail punters but as you allude,this is most likely about making things worse rather than better.

[DoINeedOne]

heard about this on the radio today thought was pretty cool

hydrogen plane only 20 minute flight but still...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vIDEU3BvfmY

[JREWING]

51 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Just remember your building soc goes `tits up` and you still have £85k, your oil company goes `tits up` you may only have `what ifs`!

That won't be a problem for me. The way my luck is and it's trending down. They'll be penny shares at the bust and I'll only lose a few quid....

Also it gives the missus a reason to stay off my back as she's busy watching the narket make us poorer.

At least the DSS won't be able to accuse me of intentional deprivation of capital when applying for housing benefit. I walked it...

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

On the BOE website they publish a range of graphs including this one:

UK instantaneous implied inflation forward curve

https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/statistics/yield-curves

Does that suggest that they are expecting 3.5% inflation in 10 years time?(?!?!)

I think they publish that to reassure themselves the ship isn't sinking.

[Heart's Ease]

 

 

[sancho panza]

hattip kaplan

 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-may-hit-record-end-054440244.html

(Bloomberg) -- Gold could hit a record before the year-end, aided in part by the risks surrounding the U.S. presidential election, according to Citigroup Inc.

Uncertainty over the contest and delays about the outcome may “be under-appreciated by precious metals markets,” analysts including Aakash Doshi said in a quarterly commodities outlook. The bank’s forecast implies a surge of more than $200 for bullion futures from current levels.

Futures traded at $1,894.20 an ounce on the Comex at 12:36 p.m. in Singapore, with prices losing ground this week on a rising dollar. Most-active prices set a record $2,089.20 on Aug. 7. In addition to the election, Citi is very positive on gold amid low interest rates, saying it’s in the middle of a bull cycle.

 

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

To be fair,it would be nice if the industry was regulated better.AS I've said before,I effectively got banned off betfair for having good results in my niche but if I'd have been gambling my kids dinner moeny away I would have been allowed to stay.

I think exchanges should be regulated in a similar manner to stock markets ie the bookies can't pick who they take their bets from.Liquidity levels should be published so if I'm looking at an event on say ladbrokes eg US presidential,ladbrokes are foreced to advertise what they'll take at what price.

There's a real opportunity here to level the playing field for retail punters but as you allude,this is most likely about making things worse rather than better.

Well you are talking about 2 different things there. Exchange liquidity is visible, which could be offered by bookies or individual punters. Away from exchanges bookmakers offer prices but then won't take much money at them. I've always thought we should be like Australia where a bookie has to lay an advertised price for a set amount (or used to unless it's changed).

You don't get banned from the Betfair exchange, they just take a bigger cut of your profits via Premium Charge. Lowering your allowable stakes on the Betfair Sportsbook effectively bans you.

Our nanny state just want to pretend to "help" people save a few pennies like with the energy price cap, while they rob them of £'s in other ways.  Looks like our gambling firms will be bought anyway, nicely up on the WH news.

[DurhamBorn]

56 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Well you are talking about 2 different things there. Exchange liquidity is visible, which could be offered by bookies or individual punters. Away from exchanges bookmakers offer prices but then won't take much money at them. I've always thought we should be like Australia where a bookie has to lay an advertised price for a set amount (or used to unless it's changed).

You don't get banned from the Betfair exchange, they just take a bigger cut of your profits via Premium Charge. Lowering your allowable stakes on the Betfair Sportsbook effectively bans you.

Our nanny state just want to pretend to "help" people save a few pennies like with the energy price cap, while they rob them of £'s in other ways.  Looks like our gambling firms will be bought anyway, nicely up on the WH news.

Iv got a niche i gamble on and have done for a couple of decades.Unibet didnt ban me,but they reduced my stake to 50p every time i tried to get a bet on.They also then knocked down their price by a big amount every time.I had in affect become their free odds compiler.Its about time bookies were told they had to take a minimum bet if they have prices up and that they should have to take at least that off anyone,and be unable to ban people.

Betfair is a godsend of course,but that premium charge is a problem.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Panda said:

That won't be a problem for me. The way my luck is and it's trending down. They'll be penny shares at the bust and I'll only lose a few quid....

Also it gives the missus a reason to stay off my back as she's busy watching the narket make us poorer.

At least the DSS won't be able to accuse me of intentional deprivation of capital when applying for housing benefit. I walked it...

Markets arent linear Panda and there is no way to pick bottoms.The sector will deliver probably 300% returns minimum over the cycle on the big integrated.Compound your dividends back into the sector as long as Brent is under $45 ,look to start selling when Brent goes over $150 and sell into the parabolic rise above $200.

[Castlevania]

6 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv got a niche i gamble on and have done for a couple of decades.Unibet didnt ban me,but they reduced my stake to 50p every time i tried to get a bet on.They also then knocked down their price by a big amount every time.I had in affect become their free odds compiler.Its about time bookies were told they had to take a minimum bet if they have prices up and that they should have to take at least that off anyone,and be unable to ban people.

Betfair is a godsend of course,but that premium charge is a problem.

Eurovision Song Contest?

[DurhamBorn]

9 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Eurovision Song Contest?

Yes,and Covid meant no winnings this year ,its gone 100% woke lately as well,so its getting a bit more tricky.

[Bricormortis]

Topped up my repsol and wisdom tree physical silver today, buying the dips.

I got most of my silver previously at around £10.60 / oz  / circa 760 oz ,but if it goes on special offer like this week, 13% down, then I have some of that, for one thing I am not too confident about the £.

I wonder  how posters see the £ going over the next 2 years relative to other major currencies ?

[DoINeedOne]

Interesting Read On The Verge Of An Energy Crisis

https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/4043042/Commentaries/2020.Q2 Commentary/2020.02 Goehring %26 Rozencwajg Market Commentary.pdf

from 

http://gorozen.com/research/commentaries

[Castlevania]

16 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes,and Covid meant no winnings this year ,its gone 100% woke lately as well,so its getting a bit more tricky.

We got a Will Ferrell film on Netflix in it’s place. You’d probably enjoy it if you actually like Eurovision.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7q6Co-nd0lM

[AWW]

6 hours ago, JMD said:

AWW, It sounds a horror show to be honest. I expect you are practicing your woke 'performance art', and all the other modern-day required interview techniques, the following might help... (Edit: oops i just noticed (honest!) ...its the first book in the list, the others are just plain bad taste, though i do wonder what happened at the University of Iowa?; ...i'll shut up now and stop digging!!)

http://www.quickmeme.com/meme/3r48b8

Can i be cheeky and ask you to let us know how the interview goes? (good luck btw) 

I'm sure it will be, but I'd like the money. Believe it or not, I've already had to spend twenty minutes on a pre-interview wokeness test.

[supernaut]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

 

You don't get banned from the Betfair exchange, they just take a bigger cut of your profits via Premium Charge. 

Not entirely true I recently had my 15 year old betfair account closed.

I arbitrage bet and was on a 'losing run' on my exchange lay bets. That prompted an investigation into my account.

Despite in depth explanations and documented proof of my activities they have refused to re open my account.

They didnt seem to care about the commision and implied commision my account generated. Big loss to my arbitrage armoury. 

[Chewing Grass]

8 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

We got a Will Ferrell film on Netflix in it’s place. You’d probably enjoy it if you actually like Eurovision.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7q6Co-nd0lM

Its actually quite a good film, very watchable, the elves (if that's what they are called) scene is hilarious.

Ja Ja Ding Dong

[DurhamBorn]

6 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

We got a Will Ferrell film on Netflix in it’s place. You’d probably enjoy it if you actually like Eurovision.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7q6Co-nd0lM

Given the things i would do with Rachel McAdams are illegal in most of Christendom you can be assured iv watched it several times.JaJa Ding dong

[Democorruptcy]

5 minutes ago, supernaut said:

Not entirely true I recently had my 15 year old betfair account closed.

I arbitrage bet and was on a 'losing run' on my exchange lay bets. That prompted an investigation into my account.

Despite in depth explanations and documented proof of my activities they have refused to re open my account.

They didnt seem to care about the commision and implied commision my account generated. Big loss to my arbitrage armoury. 

Interesting.

To be honest I packed in last year due to Premium Charge but I've never known of a winning exchange account closed down.

I know they have a team working on Premium Charge evasion and that some people have had accounts closed down if they think they are being used to avoid paying it. Do you use Facebook?

[Harley]

3 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

May have this wrong, but its not the Debt to Equity ratio thats necessarily the issue (within limits), but when the debt is due I.e current vs non-current I.e two companies, one has debt of £1m (£100k current), second has debt of £500k (£400k current), is the second the best when a recession hits turnover/profits in the short term?

Debt servicing costs in a rising rate environment if not locked long enough at low rates and with easy going loan covenants.