Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

19 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Absolutely. This govt's incompetence will be harshly judged by history. Numerous curative procedures cancelled so they could empty the hospitals for all the covid patients that never appeared. Even now, they're dragging their feet. By the end of it-I think 100,000's of people will have had their lives shortened for a variety of reasons that are nothing to do with Covid the illness itself but ratherr the govt bumbling response to it.

SP, agreed, but who will write that history? Ok, i accept a vacuous cliched question!! 

My take on Covid - well the question that i posed on the thread, back in Feb. time i think - was would the virus have a bigger impact on us than the green/global warming political agenda?

My view is that in so many practical ways, 'Covid' has already become bigger than 'Climate'. Instead of climate lip-service, we have covid control, instead of far-off climate targets, we have emergency economic rescue... could go on, but won't as these types of arguments have been adequately discussed here already. 

(Also, so many moving parts to this story, including the transformations were going to happen anyway, and of 'not letting a crises go to waste', but as said best discussed another time/thread) 

[CVG]

57 minutes ago, dgul said:

• It is tying up money which could be used for investment with an actual return
• It ties up money that might prove useful would the worst happen (where you could choose not to go to NT properties to save money)
• Your preferences/habits might change, making the 'investment' worthless.

And finally, for the avoidance of doubt, spending money which protects against inflation on discretionary expenditures, is still an expenditure and does not magically turn into an investment.

Killjoy! It's about paying for all your future fun at today's prices. Just for the avoidance of doubt ......

[Sasquatch]

4 minutes ago, CVG said:

Killjoy! It's about paying for all your future fun at today's prices. Just for the avoidance of doubt ......

If I'm planning to secure future fun it's likely to be single malt orientated! As long as I don't stockpile more than I can reasonably drink before I leave this mortal coil, I'm struggling to see any downsides to this particular strategy. I look forward to receiving any reasoned counter arguments 

[Bobthebuilder]

Anecdote.

Sold my van to a fleet buyer this week, they picked it up today.The guy was telling me he had calls today from big companies (100+ vans, plus tools) wanting to get rid of 30% due to furlough ending.

[dgul]

27 minutes ago, CVG said:

Killjoy! It's about paying for all your future fun at today's prices. Just for the avoidance of doubt ......

Well, I'm rather grumpy today as the kids are off school.

You're right -- if you think you've got a committed future expenditure then a payment to reduce the impact of this expenditure is reasonable.

[JMD]

19 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Once upon a time I lived in Jiangsu in Eastern China. It was a complete surprise to me how much they hated the Japanese, I mean truly hated. I later read up on the Nanjing massacre etc and understood better. I would say that if Japan put their nose into oil routes to China, or the South China Sea in general, hell will be unleashed. I very much doubt it, but the Japanese have agressively moved to secure oil supplies in the past.

Iraq is responsible for all the production growth in the ME, and arresting some of the decline: up 2mb net in the last ten years. They sure knew what they were invading:

And there is more to go. Iraq is probably the most important ME country for oil for the next ten years. UAE is a powerhouse, and quietly gets on with its business of being the richest country in the world:

Shocking that they consume far more than Iraq though, how long will that one last. Iran is really interesting. Because of its large population, and thus consumption, it's not the most important exporter. Huge potential to be tapped of course, but it won't be seen in this cycle:

Ignoring the sanctions, it hasn't increased exports since the 1990s, just kept pace with its own consumption increase.

All that said, those shipping lanes still carry the life blood of the world economy, and are currently crawling with carrier groups and submarines for good reason. It won't be a powder keg till Covid clears. Then, I think there will be a fight (hopefully metaphorical) over resources we have not seen before.

CP, epic post and charts btw. I have a some questions to ask if i may.  

Can Canada step-up its production to supply more to US? Would it be sufficient? And I guess even if it could, it would take 5+ years, unless there are already such changes in the 'pipeline'(sorry!). 

Could Russia/other CIS members/Nigeria or other African countries, increase their production substantially in the short term?

When you say Iraq can't increase its production this cycle, do you mean within the 2020-2030 reflation-cycle timeframe?

...In the absence of any of the above being possible, CP can you please give us some hope, and maybe speak positively about the Moon! (some say its even made out of chesapeake!)

 

 

Perhaps its not a coincidence that Japan changed its constitution only few years ago so that it can deploy its military abroad, since WW11 it had 'restricted itself' to having a defensive capability only.

Not your point i know, but as an aside its not only the Chinese - but also the Koreans - who deeply dislike the Japanese, its all a legacy of empire (but does really annoy me that the British Empire is so derided, and mostly by the British themselves it seems, but that's a different topic).

[JMD]

19 hours ago, sancho panza said:

ANy views anyone? @Transistor Man

I remember buying them with a 1 handle back in the tech bubble

They look very cheap. Also, for me they are the type of home grown engineering firm that the government will love to support/subsidise (surely just matter of time before good ol' Boris calls them a domestic godess!). Supplier to military and possible nuclear play also. And believe they are into hydrogen power systems, but TransistorMan will know more i think.

[JMD]

Can anyone clarify. Am i right in understanding todays news that a private equity firm is heading-up the Asda purchase from Walmart - Does this mean the supermarket will not be a publicly listed company? ...only I'm fearing this increase in private comapnies is a trend. 

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, dgul said:

• It is tying up money which could be used for investment with an actual return
• It ties up money that might prove useful would the worst happen (where you could choose not to go to NT properties to save money)
• Your preferences/habits might change, making the 'investment' worthless.

And finally, for the avoidance of doubt, spending money which protects against inflation on discretionary expenditures, is still an expenditure and does not magically turn into an investment.

Surely if you buy one you then start badgering the NT to allow a life membership to be sold on later, to try make them become tradeable commodities? I'd mention the potential to Goldman Sachs as well.

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/natural-gas-lumber-among-best-performers-as-commodities-post-a-second-straight-quarterly-gain-11601497224

Outside of the narrative bull markets are starting that will last a decade give or take some violent pull backs along the way.

Natural gas is back to late 17 level prices in the US.If oil can stay down and keep killing off shale that should provide rocket fuel once things get moving.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Anecdote.

Sold my van to a fleet buyer this week, they picked it up today.The guy was telling me he had calls today from big companies (100+ vans, plus tools) wanting to get rid of 30% due to furlough ending.

Ta for the heads up.  Time for me to do that conversion then?!

PS:  I trust you've not gone bust but used all that dosh flooding in to upgrade!

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Harley said:

Ta for the heads up.  Time for me to do that conversion then?!

PS:  I trust you've not gone bust but used all that dosh flooding in to upgrade!

Going 1 litre petrol.

To take a diesel van into central London costs £25 (ULEZ + CC) plus about £27 permission to park form per day. Petrol is £20 tax a year, free ULEZ and about £5 to park.

Sadiq is trying to push everyone into electric vans but the sums just dont add up. Everyone i know is going petrol.

[Chewing Grass]

3 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Going 1 litre petrol.

To take a diesel van into central London costs £25 (ULEZ + CC) plus about £27 permission to park form per day. Petrol is £20 tax a year, free ULEZ and about £5 to park.

Sadiq is trying to push everyone into electric vans but the sums just dont add up. Everyone i know is going petrol.

Looked for a petrol van 4 years ago and their was sweet FA choice, the Fiat Fiorino version of the Bipper/Nemo supposedly came in Petrol at the time but only 30 had ever been imported, so none new or used at the time.

[Bobthebuilder]

2 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Looked for a petrol van 4 years ago and their was sweet FA choice, the Fiat Fiorino version of the Bipper/Nemo supposedly came in Petrol at the time but only 30 had ever been imported, so none new or used at the time.

Ford Courier 1lt eco boost is the one to have.

[DurhamBorn]

I had a Fiat Doblo 1.3 diesel van ex Royal Mail,it was beaten up body wise but ran like a dream.The engine was bullet proof,if boring.It hated going above 65,but keep it at 55 and it was a great drive.Bought it for £700,sold it for £400 after 3 years,spent £200 on it.£160 a year  ,loads of room in the engine bay as well to work on if needed,would of been a dream to fix compared to most.Cars have far too much on them to go wrong these days.

[Loki]

41 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Ford Courier 1lt eco boost is the one to have.

Not out of warranty!

[MrXxxx]

On 01/10/2020 at 09:14, Democorruptcy said:

Do you want a bet where WICAO moved (albeit temporarily)? What odds can I have Cyprus?

Yes he did go to Cyprus initially but as you say it didn't work out...I was just guessing Malta next because he had mentioned that as well.

[Democorruptcy]

33 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Yes he did go to Cyprus initially but as you say it didn't work out...I was just guessing Malta next because he had mentioned that as well.

Malta was one of his considerations before Cyprus but he ruled it out. His comments in here imply somewhere further away as he needs a visa

http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2020/01/insanity-and-2019-in-review.html#more

[Bobthebuilder]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

Not out of warranty!

Hi Loki, I was thinking brand new. Are they shit?

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

Hi Loki, I was thinking brand new. Are they shit?

There was a fault with the degas pipe on early models, who else knows where the beancounters made their mark and it's just not got a proven reliability record long-term.  AKA the Ecoboom.

[Bobthebuilder]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

There was a fault with the degas pipe on early models, who else knows where the beancounters made their mark and it's just not got a proven reliability record long-term.  AKA the Ecoboom.

This is why i love DOSBODS and this thread. Where else do you get to hear stuff like that?

Respect to everyone on here, you are all amazing.

[Majorpain]

10 minutes ago, Loki said:

There was a fault with the degas pipe on early models, who else knows where the beancounters made their mark and it's just not got a proven reliability record long-term.  AKA the Ecoboom.

Making the coolant return from the hot turbo out of plastic was not an inspired choice! 

My focus just hit 5 years old and whilst its a very good engine its not bombproof, if it runs out of coolant it will quite happily blow itself up which is where the ecoboom comes from.  I easily saved mine by checking under the hood after temp problems and finding the coolant empty, basic mechanic skills really.

[Funn3r]

On 01/10/2020 at 16:05, RickyBacker said:

I can't read all of it... but that's Japanese not Chinese. 
Basically, Japanese is a mixture of inherited Chinese characters (Kanji) and Japanese characters (Kana). The Kanji has references to Tokyo and Osaka, but I can't read enough to fully understand it.

It says the computers at Tokyo Stock Exchange went down so all buying and selling is stopped. I heard about that, first outage since 1999.

[MrXxxx]

16 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

they did! But now they're going back up......for how long is all part of the game*

I shot my load too early this morning.....shoulda waited til an hour before US open 

*methinks Mr Market doesn't give a crap about Trump, any excuse to take things up, down, up, down.....'big boys' make money whatever.....which reminds me of another saying...

Bulls make money, Bears make money, Sheeple get slaughtered  

Is there a right time of day to buy?....a book I am reading says avoid Monday's, the first hour is very volatile, you can see when NYSE kicks in but there doesn't seem to be a time of day where the prices to buy are lowest....but then if this was the case EMT would soon correct it?

[MrXxxx]

Interesting fact to do with @DBs comment on protecting capital/pensions to level of inflation. Barclays Capital show £1k put in Bsoc in 1945 was £10400 by 1996, yet same in stocks =£210k HOWEVER in real terms the stock sum =£10k yet Bsoc sum stood still.