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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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10 hours ago, Ellandback said:

I have decided to up the ante somewhat and buy a list of silver micro/nano cap stocks (c. 15) starting from today, tricky as HL don't have some names I'm interested in.

I'd be very interested to see what you have found on HL. I've been doing a bit of research (not silver specifically) and am looking at these miners:

KESSELRUN RESOURCES LTD (KES) $13.4M
CONQUEST RESOURCES LTD (CQR) $10.7M
WARRIOR GOLD INC (WAR) $10.4M
GOLD79 MINES LTD (AUU) $8.55M

I find most stocks are not on there - no Ozzie stocks at all. I have been using Interactive Investors for ASX stocks and it's lightyears better than HL for me. Plan to move my ISA over there next year if (I can leave it alone for a few weeks) :CryBaby:

 

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6 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I understood that to be your point JMD,sorry if I mangled my answer.

Tim and Art are a great example of what I'm tlaking about.Tim has a view on the utility of energy going forward,can see that in terms of enrgy calories,we've had an amazing 40 years and that energy is and will be the economy.I would generally agree.

I'm not sure Art's long term views on energy but he's not as bullish as others because he sees supply cosntarints being offset by demand drops.

I'd put it this way,Tim guides to the asset class to invest in and Art helps you time your entry.

 

Edit to add ,there's a new Tim Morgan post

https://surplusenergyeconomics.wordpress.com/2020/10/01/182-the-castaways-dilemma-part-two/

SP, no that's perfectly fine, I should have made it clear initially that I don't think it will alter people's investment strategy for energy stocks - after that is learning how Art Berman perceives the world economy developing in the near future. Then why raise any of this at all you might legitimately ask?... I was prompted by the recent macro voices interview where in my opinion Art did not defend his own position when challenged by the interviewer, instead replying at least twice by saying '...you are notionally(?) correct...'. So I did a little digging and found it interesting how aligned Berman was with Nate Hagen, a friend of his, and a sort off new-age economist as far as I can see. I know Berman is only one of many oil commentators but I thought it significant that a 'traditional type oil man', at least that's how I had viewed Berman, was actually quiet the new-age and green environmental sort himself. I'm not attempting to smeer Berman, it just helps I think to explain Art's thinking/biases(we all have them!). Anyway rant over, thanks for reading to the end(if any one did do that is?!).

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5 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

@Pandayoung man.....capital.con are a CFD 'bucket shop'.....trading CFDs can be very dangerous for your wealth and possibly your health, does your wife know? :P

 

oil.jpg

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12 hours ago, JMD said:

Has anyone considered the tech firm MicroStrategy (nasdaq:mstr)? 

It was very profitable for number of years and built a $500M cash reserve. Its stated policy is not to hold cash, so last year it bought approx. 40,000 BTC for average $8k. The company is still profitable with no debt. However, I think the stock is maybe overpriced - but if stock price were to drop, it would at least be a way of picking up cheap exposure to BTC, and in a profitable company.

The other point to make is that other cash rich companies may start doing the same if negative bank rates happen, so worth watching out for perhaps? What do others think?

I enjoyed this podcast with the co-founder of Microstrategy who seems to have the midas touch.   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WrR95PFYDFQ

 

 

 

 

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3 hours ago, Metalheadz said:

I'd be very interested to see what you have found on HL. I've been doing a bit of research (not silver specifically) and am looking at these miners:

KESSELRUN RESOURCES LTD (KES) $13.4M
CONQUEST RESOURCES LTD (CQR) $10.7M
WARRIOR GOLD INC (WAR) $10.4M
GOLD79 MINES LTD (AUU) $8.55M

I find most stocks are not on there - no Ozzie stocks at all. I have been using Interactive Investors for ASX stocks and it's lightyears better than HL for me. Plan to move my ISA over there next year if (I can leave it alone for a few weeks) :CryBaby:

 

yeah - companies named due to some middle age geeks nerd hard on tend not to attract me, for some reason.... :wanker:

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1 hour ago, wherebee said:

yeah - companies named due to some middle age geeks nerd hard on tend not to attract me, for some reason.... :wanker:

hmm yes Alien metals anyone?...

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17 hours ago, Ellandback said:

I was going to post asking the same, Thus far I've bought only established silver majors and producers and they have performed very well for me over the past 12 months I've had them but I have decided to up the ante somewhat and buy a list of silver micro/nano cap stocks (c. 15) starting from today, tricky as HL don't have some names I'm interested in. Plan is to exit these early next year but that could of course prove folly. Wish me luck!

Yup I’ve dipped my toe in the murky world of RNS research as it peaked my interest as a bit of a side project.

I’ve taken profits from the larger silver miners and re-invested in the ISA.

Just as a side note, Centamin has had a bad week this week with subsidence in one of their mines effecting the quarters output. I see them on par with Hochschild, and should recover so will be a good ‘in’ point for me.

Back to the minnows, I put a bit in Eurasia the other week (I mentioned it on this thread) when it dipped to 17p. Up now 62% to 30p waiting for the sale final valuation due sometime this month. 

Guesstimates are around a sale value of anything from 50p to £1.50 with the pipe dreamers hoping beyond especially if the buyer is Sibanye (which remains to be seen) Big pay day on relatively little outlay in any case.

Some were in at 0.5p for some years. That rewards patience, but for me I’m perfectly happy to wait for the murmurings and buy higher and be in and out in a month or so.

The micros will be a good option on the Freetrade app (they have a few more on Freetrade Plus but that’s £9.99p/m) Good for a small punt rather than making a large enough stake to make the fees viable on H&L.

Obviously LSE share chat is good to keep on top of the rumours. That is of course if you can put up with the keyboard warrior retired boomers shouting at one another and salivating over their ‘expected’ profits. They tend to like posting about eyeing up cars at showrooms etc to burn their boomer bucks as they’ve nothing else to spend it on.

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6 hours ago, Loki said:

Anyone just going to buy GDX and/or GDXJ?

I did about 18 months ago.....then after a 12 month review they'd only gone up about 10-15%......so I sold out and bought something like BP :CryBaby:

tough gig this macro vs micro xD

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Not a fan from an EROEI perspective, but from a national struggle and/or investing the cycle perspective ... it'll do: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54421489

And is this the real reason why fishing rights is a big deal in EU trade negotiations? Because we can't carpet Dogger Bank with windfarms if the fishing rights are locked in by international treaty. Suspect fishing industry might be in for a nasty surprise :(

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1 hour ago, jamtomorrow said:

Not a fan from an EROEI perspective, but from a national struggle and/or investing the cycle perspective ... it'll do: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-54421489

And is this the real reason why fishing rights is a big deal in EU trade negotiations? Because we can't carpet Dogger Bank with windfarms if the fishing rights are locked in by international treaty. Suspect fishing industry might be in for a nasty surprise :(

Key to watch on the Dogger side is who takes the equity stake with SSE and Equinor.BP have gone in with Equinor in the US so will be interested.The Teesside part Dogger bank C will come onshore at the Lackenby substation where the steel works were and where BP intends to build a hydrogen plant i think.That connection could mean a new steel works with an electric arc furnace as well.BP and Equinor in the US makes more sense though as they will use BPs massive energy trading business there to sell the electric.Most countries simply dont have the wind options the UK does but done right it will see large scale manufacturing return.

If anyone wants to take a punt on house prices something like this in Redcar right next to  the site could be interesting.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-73474791.html

Its 100 yards from the railway station,just behind the race course.

Or ones needing no work

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-89860673.html

Thats in the best area,right next to train station and right next to where they are likely to invest.

https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-81988384.html

Thats sold,but a cracking house.

Imagine the prices on the coast for those type of house down south.

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11 hours ago, macca said:

I have Siemens shares.. They are about to split my shares as Siemens renewable is separating into its own company..

 Is that separate company Siemens Gamesa?

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22 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Tullow Oil could double bag looking at charts.....not a holder so DYOR

UP 11% today......setting up a tipsters website later PM for subscription costs :P

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19 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

UP 11% today......setting up a tipsters website later PM for subscription costs :P

Premier Oil up 10% too (on being acquired on the cheap)

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4 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Premier Oil up 10% too (on being acquired on the cheap)

who's buying who?

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Just now, 5min OCD speculator said:

who's buying who?

Chrysaor buying Premier Oil but keeping Premier’s stock market listing

Premier have binned the acquisition of BP’s North Sea assets as a part of the transaction.

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guys guys, got a free tip before the website goes live xD

US government are buying Nickel mines in Brazil!!!! This is really big news for the likes of HORIZONTE! :Jumping:

I'm cross posting but this is BIG NEWS - jets incoming....:P

AND it's from zerohedge! HAHAHAHAHA

The US government is taking a $25 million equity stake in Dublin-based battery metals miner TechMet, as part of a push by President Donald Trump to reduce the country’s reliance on supply chains dominated by China. 

The backing from the $60 billion US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) will help TechMet develop a nickel and cobalt mine in Brazil. Both metals are key in the production of the batteries that power electric cars and cell phones.

TechMet’s Brazilian Nickel project, in the north-eastern state of Piauí, is estimated to hold as much as 72 million tonnes of nickel and cobalt.

 

 

 

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16 hours ago, Harley said:

Here are the partial results of my latest screening of the Oil & Gas sector related industries (as listed by Investing.com).  I'm posting the list FYI (DYOR) but mainly to check I haven't missed any major companies.  Anything major missing?

The screen details:  The top 15 companies in each industry by market cap, excluding those with a Current Ratio < 0.9, those with negative equity, those with a LTDE Ratio > 1,000%(!), those shares other than ordinary shares, and those exchanges of no interest to me.

Some companies (especially in the gas space) are listed under the Utility industry(!), which I will cover next.  May be others like that in other industries too.  Would be good to know, hence one reason for posting.

105761657_Integratedv1.PNG.77022d10672d502e8d257db827f7b453.PNG1913274627_Operationsv1.PNG.5a5ec53d651d3f6be284292da845b49a.PNG879414478_ServicesEquipmentv1.PNG.bc32259a5288c51dbbf647f3b455ef73.PNG

Harley, might be of interest, most of these have been discussed on here (i even own some, for my sins!! - as i bought in at too high price)

For the oil co's how about - ENI? Is Ovintiv to small?

Services - RPC inc., Helix Energy, Newpark Resources, Core Labs, Petrofac                                            

Are you also doing infrastructure?... Plains All American, Kinder Morgan, National Fuel Gas, Entreprise Prod Partners, Inter Pipeline Ltd, ENB, Atmos Energy, Phillips66, DCP Midstream, Atmos

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I know it's that giant c u next tuesday from Tesla again but he's offering

“giant contract” to responsible nickel miners

https://www.mining.com/tesla-offers-giant-contract-to-responsible-nickel-miners/

not sure how you 'mine responsibly' in the real world......and I am a bit worried about the Capybaras in Brazil.....

BUT I'm blaming the TAX man......if I didn't have to pay tax! :PissedOff:

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11 hours ago, Metalheadz said:

I'd be very interested to see what you have found on HL. I've been doing a bit of research (not silver specifically) and am looking at these miners:

KESSELRUN RESOURCES LTD (KES) $13.4M
CONQUEST RESOURCES LTD (CQR) $10.7M
WARRIOR GOLD INC (WAR) $10.4M
GOLD79 MINES LTD (AUU) $8.55M

I find most stocks are not on there - no Ozzie stocks at all. I have been using Interactive Investors for ASX stocks and it's lightyears better than HL for me. Plan to move my ISA over there next year if (I can leave it alone for a few weeks) :CryBaby:

 

Scrap that, from my list I only found >$10M market cap companies on HL and not micro/nano as I stated! However I did buy some AUU last week as a long term hold.

I wish HL carried the more obscure names, just looked at II as an alternative but it shows international share deals at £19.99 :o

Interactive Brokers sounds ideal but I don't think they offer a S&S ISA.

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