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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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1 hour ago, DoINeedOne said:

Even about the population the world is getting better believe it or not but still alot people living in what the book calls level 1&2  a book i was recomended to read is 

Factfulness - https://www.amazon.co.uk/Factfulness-Illustrated-Hans-Rosling/dp/1529387159/

I still need to finish it but it has some interesting charts information etc... couple random pages

IMG_8785.thumb.jpg.a0da56fcd9a0b909aab871e9856b99e7.jpg

IMG_8787.thumb.jpg.956af21b990357e964ec671c71e4727c.jpg

IMG_8786.thumb.jpg.85bbb3143ba5c8a9fcaff1a8cf84ae43.jpg

 

The author also did a few Ted talks one from 2010 about green movement and energy use

 

Here's another great Rosling presentation that debunks some commonly held beliefs regarding population growth:

 

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4 hours ago, Loki said:

They're obsessed.  Anyone who can't join the dots now...I don't know what to say.

It's proven scientific FACT that gender equality will solve ALL of our problems, because reasons.

So there.

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4 hours ago, Loki said:

They're obsessed.  Anyone who can't join the dots now...I don't know what to say.

Their talk means nothing now,CBs are all full on printing and countries are all looking inward.We are about to see a massive investment boom across Asia,then the US and Europe rolling out across the world and inflation will follow.Its funny really how things play out,but it was always going to see consumer companies smashed.Seeing people in papers etc saying how they were going to lose everything they are nearly all consumer based.Industrial sectors are already starting to see increased demand.Many areas that will drive the cycle are hotting up,key lead indicators all flashing its in motion.CBs are probably about a third of the way through the printing,lots more to come yet.The economy is in full tilt,China and Asia will provide the first inflation and demand pulse.Its underway now.

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2 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Their talk means nothing now,CBs are all full on printing and countries are all looking inward.We are about to see a massive investment boom across Asia,then the US and Europe rolling out across the world and inflation will follow.Its funny really how things play out,but it was always going to see consumer companies smashed.Seeing people in papers etc saying how they were going to lose everything they are nearly all consumer based.Industrial sectors are already starting to see increased demand.Many areas that will drive the cycle are hotting up,key lead indicators all flashing its in motion.CBs are probably about a third of the way through the printing,lots more to come yet.The economy is in full tilt,China and Asia will provide the first inflation and demand pulse.Its underway now.

What charts/metrics do you use to track that? 

I was thinking today while watching an old vid about Black Monday, (Were you financial then, did you see it coming?) that I doubt I'd see any crash in the future coming unless it played out the exact way this one seems to be.

Can you recommend any good books so I can stop being a macro tourist/plagiarist xD

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UnconventionalWisdom
27 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The economy is in full tilt,China and Asia will provide the first inflation and demand

Will big inflation from China cause a weakening dollar? Do you think China will drop all its US treasuries if it prioritises industrial expansion over consumerism. They really hold all the cards on the US economy.

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On 15/10/2020 at 18:20, Cattle Prod said:

I don't want to clog up the thread, but I just saw another report on US inventories, it was the largest weekly drop in almost 9 years. This was predicted by nobody, except those that understand the natural decline of shale wells:

 

614834252_USinventories.thumb.PNG.51c8cc9c23dd2d849aeb5bb08ed057fc.PNG

The SPR draw down was by the companies who were allowed store there during the crisis. There is a steady trend down overall, but we are now coming into traditional inventory build season, which will be telling. And if price doesn't react, it's because Cushing saw an increase in inventories which is where WTI is priced from. But Cushing is mostly a transit point, it'll move out again.

I'd love one of those Bloomberg terminals (for free, of course), they seem to have every kind of information on there.

What's SPR stand for?

I never get tired of the education we're getting in oil,not clogging the thread up at all imho.

I was looking the otehr day quickly in between shifts and was surprised to see BP near £2 but WTI >$40.How do you explain that which at first appears a paradox?

There appears a real disconnect between the two of alte and I keep hearing about the demand side drop,but the evidence appears to be saying it's not there.If you're right CP,then the CHinese have been buying the dips below $40.SOmeone's been buying.

Chart is WTI overlaid by BP

image.thumb.png.0be7a36577db74da0671875fa92fd9ac.png

a longer term perpsecive voer last few years

image.thumb.png.43d11c685ef129b57d29effe1afabb4e.png

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9 hours ago, Errol said:

Plenty of dots to join up without going tin foiled.  I don't care if this was all planned or they're just being opportunistic and accelerating things.  The con is on.

Government spending huge amounts (revenue items, not the sort of capital stuff we talk about), Budget cancelled, FSA and BoE out there making enquiries about this and that, IMF allegedly funding/promoting lockdowns, smart money watching this unfold from various sunny climes, banks doing a fair few system upgrades, government clearly taking the proverbial with the stats and creating a climate of fear, plumbing being put in place and tuned to lock stuff down for any reason (Covid today......), unprecedented levels of propaganda and spin, textbook hypernormalisation techniques and other psyops in play, and so on.

Just like my ambush simile, most people are naturally wired to ensure they cannot take the leap and take action.  I've saved the lives of two people who froze on the spot, unable to function.  I survived stuff through repetitive training but am only ever one step away.  Very few have been trained for this.  Even I find it hard despite things and am still shocked when I see things come to pass.  We'll go Swedish alright, Stockholm! 

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8 hours ago, Loki said:

That might be it's weakness...I have at the back of my mind the Pareto principle...the system should be able to sustain itself with 80% compliance.  Here's to us hopefully being the 20% that end up getting by just fine with our Britannias and Sovereigns...if things end up that bad.

Many races throughout history thought similar.  Did not end well.  Such monsters need feeding to survive. 

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1 minute ago, Harley said:

Many races throughout history thought similar.  Did not end well.  Such monsters need feeding to survive. 

Don't take away my hopium! xD

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3 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Their talk means nothing now,CBs are all full on printing and countries are all looking inward.We are about to see a massive investment boom across Asia,then the US and Europe rolling out across the world and inflation will follow.Its funny really how things play out,but it was always going to see consumer companies smashed.Seeing people in papers etc saying how they were going to lose everything they are nearly all consumer based.Industrial sectors are already starting to see increased demand.Many areas that will drive the cycle are hotting up,key lead indicators all flashing its in motion.CBs are probably about a third of the way through the printing,lots more to come yet.The economy is in full tilt,China and Asia will provide the first inflation and demand pulse.Its underway now.

The UK is spending tons but not on investment.  On pacifying groups, on revenue not capital.  I could be charitable and call it Keynesian, but this time it is different.  They cancelled the Budget FFS.  They have no financial plan in the traditional sense.  They know they don't need one.  They are working at another level.  I just hope they are letting speculation rip, like they always do, so the reality becomes a relief and now acceptable.

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1 minute ago, Harley said:

The UK is spending tons but nit on investment.  On pacifying groups, on revenue not capital.  I could be charitable and call it Keynesian, but this time it is different.  They cancelled the Budget FFS.  They have no financial plan in the traditional sense.  They know they don't need one.  They are working at another level.  I just hope they are letting speculation rip, like they always do, so the reality becomes a relief and now acceptable.

Harley I don't understand every single one of your posts (Do my best like xD) but I understand this and the underlying tone of concern! And you're one of the blokes who seems like he would panic last. :ph34r:

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On 16/10/2020 at 12:26, Cattle Prod said:

Must read thread:

or the non Twitters:

As I said a while back, big oil will invest in renewables as it becomes competitive with other o&g projects, and can compete internally for capital. I think Bernard Looney is trying to force this to happen, Pouyanne is letting it happen. He's an interesting guy, and widely respected. Total avoided shale entirely, as they didn't see the value in it. 

I don't know how much of his 10% return is stlll in government subsidy, but these projects are currently competitive. The 2% on renewable borrowing is eye opening to me, explains a lot: this is what the entire ESG movement in the oil industry is about. I've said that the shareholder revolts are real, and the boards are taking it very seriously. This is brass tacks: they can access capital for renewables projects for less than half the cost of oil and gas projects.

It's all about access to capital. Follow the money.

 

image.png.6395fb77705eb1041a2b1d256dbefb75.png

I found the excerpy above intriguing.$100bn dollars per 1mbpd equivalent.It can;t be that expensive surely?

You can certinly say that with that sort of commitment,the big boys must be at the front of the queue....

On 16/10/2020 at 22:11, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Trunp is fully behind a big fiscal stimulus. It may be to get votes but now the shift from Wall Street to Main street is starting. Prob the ripple that will spread through the Western world. Article also states people paying off debt.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trump-says-im-ready-to-sign-a-big-beautiful-stimulus-but-it-doesnt-look-like-many-americans-are-counting-on-it-2020-10-16?mod=home-page

President Donald Trump is ready to sign a “big, beautiful stimulus,” he said during a Thursday night town hall, despite ongoing talks that include skeptics in the Republican-controlled Senate and, earlier in the month, when he said he was done negotiating.

I think the possibility of a Trump win is understated.Even go so far as to say some recent polls would make his current 2.86 look good value.

13 hours ago, Castlevania said:

I ran out of patience with Centamin so redeployed that a couple of weeks ago along with some William Hill gains into Harmony; Sibanye; Hochschild; Elderado; Iamgold and uhh Great Panther. At current spot prices they’re all reasonable value in my opinion. 

If you’re willing to look into the cesspit that is AIM Shanta Gold still looks cheap despite solid gains over the year - it’s my largest holding yet I’m unwilling to sell given their low (in my opinion) valuation. Clearly do your own research and don’t take my views as advice as I’m often very wrong.

 

 

Thanks for the heads up CV,I'll have a butchers.IAM gold one of the great underperfomers thus far for me.

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12 hours ago, Castlevania said:

 

Yeah these two items tie in, in that as long as a country issues debt in it’s own currency then they can’t default. The value of that currency can plunge relative to other currencies but they can always print some more. So Moody’s exercise is pointless. Countries only default when they’ve borrowed in a foreign currency that they have no control over. See the perpetual defaulter Argentina who invariably default on USD denominated borrowings.

I think you're right and worng here CV.

Yes countries that print their own cash can't really ddefault.However,pension funds are pushed by many regulators to only invest in certain ratings of bonds.Down grading leads to rising IR's.

I suppose the bodn ratings would reflect some element of forexr risk but I dont know for sure.

10 hours ago, Wheeler said:

I would imagine he's talking about BHP Billiton, Rio Tinto and Cameco. 

The following link lists the traded companies I believe. It is very slow to open so give it a minute or two (copied and pasted to save some time)

https://www.miningfeeds.com/uranium-mining-report-all-countries

URANIUM MINING COMPANIES LISTED IN ALL COUNTRIES

Category/Country Filter
           Gold                     Silver                     Copper                         Uranium                     Diamonds                     Coal                     Potash                     Tech Metals                             --Platinum Group                                              -----Palladium                                         -----Platinum                                         -----Rhodium                                                --Lithium                                                     --Rare Earths                                                     --Strategic Minerals                                              -----Vanadium                                         -----Cobalt                                        Base Metals                             --Nickel                                                     --Iron                                                     --Zinc-Lead                                                     --Tungsten-Tin                                    all-countries australia Canada United Kingdom United States of America united-kingdom united-states-of-america All Countries   
 
Basic Data Points
 Ticker   Last Price (native)   Change (native)   Change (%)   Day Low   Day High   52 Week Low   52 Week High   Volume   MC (M CAD$)  
 
Compare
(Show all)
Company   Ticker   Last Price (native)   Change (native)   Change (%)   Day Low   Day High   52 Week Low   52 Week High   Volume   MC (M CAD$)  
  Australia.png  BHP Billiton Ltd. BHP.AX 42.04 0.040 0.10% 42.07 42.33 30.31 42.33 4,028,709 197,087.0
  Australia.png  Rio Tinto Ltd. RIO.AX 106.45 0.600 0.56% 106.80 107.94 69.41 107.99 946,244 163,376.0
  Canada.png  Cameco Corp. CCO.TO 14.04 0.020 0.14% 13.98 14.17 12.31 17.12 403,495 5,564.7
  Canada.png  Uranium Participation Corp. U.TO 4.20 -0.010 -0.24% 4.16 4.21 3.99 5.14 75,527 578.5
  Canada.png  Altius Minerals ALS.TO 12.72 0.390 3.07% 12.80 13.11 10.04 13.93 50,151 561.9
  Canada.png  Fission Uranium Corp. DML.TO 0.70 0.000 0.00% 0.68 0.70 0.59 0.89 82,839 412.4
  United%20States%20of%20America.png  Uranium Energy Corp. UEC 1.36 -0.050 -3.68% 1.31 1.37 1.12 1.89 2,000 298.7
  Canada.png  Antoro Resources ORE.V 0.64 0.040 6.25% 0.60 0.68 0.39 0.85 164,300 144.4
  Canada.png  Starfire Minerals Inc. SFR.V 0.18 -0.015 -8.33% 0.15 0.18 0.06 0.22 129,374 135.0
  Australia.png  Liontown Resources Ltd. LTR.AX 0.11 0.000 0.00% 0.11 0.11 0.02 0.13 2,541,399 127.1
  Australia.png  Berkeley Resources Ltd. BKY.AX 0.35 0.000 0.00% 0.35 0.35 0.14 0.88 1,485 83.1
  Australia.png  Arafura Resources Limited ARU.AX 0.10 0.005 5.00% 0.10 0.11 0.04 0.14 2,983,424 80.8
  Canada.png  Wealth Minerals Ltd. WML.V 0.35 0.150 43.48% 0.33 0.48 0.31 1.05 292,115 66.9
  Australia.png  Deep Yellow Ltd. DYL.AX 0.34 0.000 0.00% 0.34 0.35 0.30 0.58 173,394 66.7
  Canada.png  UEX Corp. UEX.TO 0.17 0.000 0.00% 0.17 0.17 0.14 0.26 486,979 64.8
  Canada.png  Ucore Rare Metals Inc. UCU.V 0.23 -0.025 -10.87% 0.20 0.24 0.09 0.34 170,620 58.0
  Canada.png  Golden Valley Mines Ltd. GZZ.V 0.35 -0.020 -5.71% 0.33 0.34 0.22 0.39 24,100 44.2
  Australia.png  Toro Energy Ltd TOE.AX 0.02 0.000 0.00% 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.04 494,292 40.0
  Australia.png  A-Cap Resources Ltd. ACB.AX 0.04 -0.002 -5.71% 0.03 0.03 0.03 0.07 11,000 31.9
  Canada.png  Consolidated Abaddon Resources ABN.V 0.25 0.000 0.00% 0.24 0.25 0.11 0.49 152,190 28.5
  Australia.png  Matrix Metals Ltd. MRX.AX 0.01 0.000 0.00% 0.01 0.01 0.01 0.01 715,250 24.5
  Canada.png  Wind River Resources WRR.V 0.19 -0.005 -2.70% 0.18 0.19 0.05 0.27 162,500 24.0
  Canada.png  Azimut Exploration Inc. AZM.V 0.40 -0.020 -5.00% 0.38 0.38 0.22 0.52 7,000 20.3
  Canada.png  Globex Mining Enterprises Inc. GMX.TO 0.37 0.000 0.00% 0.37 0.38 0.25 0.42 3,400 18.7
  Australia.png  Red Metal Ltd. RDM.AX 0.09 0.000 0.00% 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.14 359,512 17.6
  Australia.png  Encounter Resources Ltd. ENR.AX 0.07 0.001 1.43% 0.07 0.07 0.04 0.12 81,158 17.1
  Australia.png  Adelaide Resources Ltd. ADN.AX 0.02 0.000 0.00% 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 5,755,799 17.0
  Canada.png  Purepoint Uranium Group Inc. PTU.V 0.08 -0.005 -6.67% 0.07 0.08 0.06 0.11 43,258 15.0
  Australia.png  Jindalee Resources Ltd. JRL.AX 0.34 0.065 19.12% 0.40 0.42 0.23 0.45 121,062 13.2
  Canada.png  Pinetree Capital Ltd. PNP.TO 1.53 -0.150 -9.80% 1.29 1.50 1.20 2.29 3,800 12.5
  Canada.png  Quaterra Resources Inc. QTA.V 0.06 0.000 0.00% 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.13 58,000 12.3
  Australia.png  Energy Ventures Ltd. EVE.AX 0.01 0.000 0.00% 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 1,373,946 10.4

I'm genuinely wondering if we're going to see a return to uranium in the next decade.OWuld solve a lot of problems.

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53 minutes ago, Loki said:

Harley I don't understand every single one of your posts (Do my best like xD) but I understand this and the underlying tone of concern! And you're one of the blokes who seems like he would panic last. :ph34r:

No panic, just very unhappy!  Dodge a bullet, as it were, and every other day becomes a bonus.  I've been to hell and can go again because life's been top and nothing comes for free.  Out of fecks.  Just a shame I won't be so young and able this time.  It's going to get shitey, bit by bit, and then chunk by chunk.  Who would have thought we would be here nine months ago.  Boiled frogs.  Chose a coping strategy.  Many available, personal preference. Sure, play the finance stuff, I do, if no nothing else than cover the risk of being wrong, which happens!

PS:  I promise to write something very financial, but, as the traders say, psychology is everything.

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hmm, thought that as well, is it brexit? does that bring any advantages for them? we can buy them already if we want to.

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Brace!

"Thinking ahead, a service like FedNow, coupled with a directory service with accurate information on 
where to route payments for final distribution to households and businesses, has the potential to solve 
some of the challenges the government faced when distributing pandemic relief payments. Of course, 
creating such a directory and ensuring it is kept up-to-date is complex, and several challenges, including 
data privacy considerations, account information maintenance demands, and business case considerations,
would have to be solved. The Federal Reserve understands the potential value of such a service, and has 
been exploring these issues as it evaluates the features to eventually include in FedNow."

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2 hours ago, Errol said:

Energy: The most hated asset class in the world -

 

Image

It's incredible.  Whether you are left wing, right wing, pessimist, optimist, green, red, whatever - you HAVE to see that the world runs on cheap energy, and without energy failing a massive fall in population numbers, energy will continue to climb in demand.  You also have to acknowledge that renewables and the like cannot yet replace oil and coal in any meaningful way globally (yes for some countries, not for 7billion people).

I keep thinking we are missing some huge fail in our logic?  Is it planned depopulation?

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17 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I think the UK is more leveraged than say Europe where various types of PR systems allow disparate groups a voice in parliament.

If you look at the 2005 result.LAbour got a working majority with 35% of the vote.Therein lies the weakenss of FPTP.Ukip polled 4 million votes ,tories got 11.3 million

I know the point your making SP, but hasn't every form of government ended up making the same dreadfull decisions, with all now having a similar looking bunch of ineffective and peculiar leaders at their helms? Has any of these forms of 'representation' made any substantive difference? However, I do think these different chimeras in democracy, whether they be fptp, pr, etc, have been very instructive. I just society is capable of learning from its mistakes. For example, I now term myself a libertarian, despite all my life being negative towards this philosophy - mainly because when the 'facts' change, I change my mind. The new 'facts' I think are significant are the powefull opportunities offered by blockchain technology, including applications like smart contracts, stable coins, etc. These technologies are game changers and make for example concepts like P2P lending look prehistoric.                                                                                                                                                          All this may sound rather utopian, but to be cear I don't think blockchain to be a magic bullit. Instead, I actually fear an increasingly authoritarian state developing over the next few years, with lockdowns and curfews, government by decree, MSM/cross-party consensus, as being perhaps just the start. I think the Psyops have also begun (though I'm pleasantly surprised that the West seem to be as crap and clumsy as the old USSR was about such things). Of course the method is not as blatant as governments telling people what to actually believe, but rather what to (continually) think (or worry) about - Corona, mental health, identity-politics maybe? But so far these distraction/social division techniques appear to be working.                                     Anyway just my collection of rambling thoughts, triggered mainly by the events happening so far this year. Could be way wrong, and I accept it's mostly conjecture (though hope it doesn't sound too ott?). And in any case, perhaps if we are actually heading toward a full monetary collapse by decade end, it might be a good thing for governments to take greater controls in order to prevent violence or even civil wars. But of course, and as always, wrestling those powers back out of the hands of government will then be the problem. And that's why I mention blockchain above, which I think does offer a chink of hope for a very different way of ordering society, along the lines of a small-state libertarian solution. 

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3 hours ago, Errol said:

Energy: The most hated asset class in the world -

 

Image

I'll keep watching, once energy becomes more hated than estate agents I'm buying another ladder.

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3 hours ago, Harley said:

Plenty of dots to join up without going tin foiled.  I don't care if this was all planned or they're just being opportunistic and accelerating things.  The con is on.

Government spending huge amounts (revenue items, not the sort of capital stuff we talk about), Budget cancelled, FSA and BoE out there making enquiries about this and that, IMF allegedly funding/promoting lockdowns, smart money watching this unfold from various sunny climes, banks doing a fair few system upgrades, government clearly taking the proverbial with the stats and creating a climate of fear, plumbing being put in place and tuned to lock stuff down for any reason (Covid today......), unprecedented levels of propaganda and spin, textbook hypernormalisation techniques and other psyops in play, and so on.

Just like my ambush simile, most people are naturally wired to ensure they cannot take the leap and take action.  I've saved the lives of two people who froze on the spot, unable to function.  I survived stuff through repetitive training but am only ever one step away.  Very few have been trained for this.  Even I find it hard despite things and am still shocked when I see things come to pass.  We'll go Swedish alright, Stockholm! 

Just so I've understood Harley, Is the hyper-normalisation term you use from the Adam Curtis documentary?

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