Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Don Coglione]

1 hour ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

 

Fingers crossed the oilies remain as attractively priced another 10 or 20 days...  Good old Joe, promising to transition away from oil in tonights debate.  
 

After last night's presidential debate, the oilies are likely to get whacked today, surely? If Biden wins, lots more short-term pain to come here.

[DoINeedOne]

8 hours ago, Noallegiance said:

Not sure if I got this from here so apologies if I did. I'm 25 minutes in and fascinated. Well in keeping with this thread

 

I have mentioned this a few times here great interview, Anthony does not seem to do many interviews

Also check out Grant Williams podcast if you have not already

[nirvana]

58 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

After last night's presidential debate, the oilies are likely to get whacked today, surely? If Biden wins, lots more short-term pain to come here.

Bollocks!

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

After last night's presidential debate, the oilies are likely to get whacked today, surely? If Biden wins, lots more short-term pain to come here.

Not sure it quite works like that.  Regardless, the key is to see the depth and breadth of any reaction and specific company performances for insights into where and when to position.  I love these test lab experiments where they throw in a reagent!

[Bricks & Mortar]

3 hours ago, Bricks & Mortar said:

P.S - the transfer option only becomes visible on NEST after you hit "Stop Contributions."  I delayed for several months wondering how onerous it would be.  Finally hit the button this morning, and appear to have dealt with everything thereafter in about 15 minutes last night.

CORRECTION:  The Transfer option is all through the HL website.
I think the process only became possible once I'd clicked the stop contributions button.  Also didn't find my policy number until Nest sent me the email after I stopped contributions.

[nirvana]

COME ON!!! YANKEES BUYING THE DIP!!! IN THE MONEY, KERCHING! 

I'll resist posting naked babes and drugs so here's a nice picture for the weekend

 

[nirvana]

10 year t-bonds are motoring

if this can hold over the weekend we're off to the races

I can smell bipolar bear's shorts getting burnt.......

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

10 year t-bonds are motoring

It's quite something isn't it.

4 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

 

My spirit animal 

[DurhamBorn]

Ignore short term moves up or down.US election results will have zero affect by 2028.Zero.This recovery cycle will be liquidity driven once the pipes open.The CBs printing above trend is what matters.Every day now in deflation means they need to get inflation higher than trend over the cycle.There will be big moves up and down.

I added some Bayer today,small opening position,looking to add going forward.

 

 

[Loki]

Just now, DurhamBorn said:

Ignore short term moves up or down.US election results will have zero affect by 2028.Zero.This recovery cycle will be liquidity driven once the pipes open.The CBs printing above trend is what matters.Every day now in deflation means they need to get inflation higher than trend over the cycle.There will be big moves up and down.

 

Apologies, I know I'm guilty of using this thread to discuss day to day moves.  I'm not worried by it at all, just curious about the cause(s) and on quiet days it is interesting to see what the Big Brains think.

Completely agree with the bit in bold

[Don Coglione]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Ignore short term moves up or down.US election results will have zero affect by 2028.Zero.This recovery cycle will be liquidity driven once the pipes open.The CBs printing above trend is what matters.Every day now in deflation means they need to get inflation higher than trend over the cycle.There will be big moves up and down.

I added some Bayer today,small opening position,looking to add going forward.

 

 

DurhamBorn,

With the utmost respect (I have learned so much from you), taking a position today, with a view to 2028 and, effectively, ignoring the interim, is not something I could understand, much less countenance.

If nothing else, at least some of the followers of this thread will be dead by then!

In my view, it can be hard to differentiate between trading short-term noise and long-term trends, but dismissing an eight year window is, surely, reckless, indeed impossible?

Apologies if I have misunderstood the thrust of your post.

[janch]

The 30 year treasury bond seems to have turned.  Are we now in reflation?

[DurhamBorn]

24 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

DurhamBorn,

With the utmost respect (I have learned so much from you), taking a position today, with a view to 2028 and, effectively, ignoring the interim, is not something I could understand, much less countenance.

If nothing else, at least some of the followers of this thread will be dead by then!

In my view, it can be hard to differentiate between trading short-term noise and long-term trends, but dismissing an eight year window is, surely, reckless, indeed impossible?

Apologies if I have misunderstood the thrust of your post.

The interim is very hard to be known as there are so many moving parts.However longer term things get easier from a macro position.Money supply growing faster than debt destruction for instance means its almost certain real asset prices will increase in time.There is room for cross market work,for instance trying to work out what might move first etc and when,but thats different to a macro roadmap.I understand people have different needs and reasons to invest.My investing has changed over the years.My aims now are to outperform inflation over the cyclet.If inflation averages 65% by 28/30 and i make 66% i consider that job done,though of course i hope and expect to way outperform that.Dieing doesnt matter to me.

Remember as well the 8 year window should be most of the cycle,we should be well underway within two years,its just the big parabolic moves will come late cycle,and the hardest part will be holding through big gains for that period.

[Nicolas Turgeon]

On 19/10/2020 at 12:28, JMD said:

...

Excuse the detour, back to our actual subject(!). I just wanted to properly explain that the outcome of the risk/reward review i did, led me to focus (big time!) on the coming industrial/commodity cycle (that's the 'decomplex' idea i mentioned). So buying shares in the relevant companies that i wanted, was really the only way to get that exposure, as the funds/etfs were too 'diverse' in what they held (though that 91 Resource Fund you list is very good, but i notice even that has approx. 1% fee). Anyway, the more i thought about the pending macro cycle, and the unfolding global politics/social issues, the more it all made sense to me ...

Agreed! the decomplex theme has been heavily discussed here i.e. going back to the root inputs of industry rather than investing in (for example) the retailers who buy products made from parts made by part makers made from inputs made from chemicals made from raw materials.... with a few other steps thrown in! That kind of disconnection is the opposite from the decomplex theme. Which is why the consensus on here is loving those raw ingredients.

The recent thougts I had were around holding US dollars in an ISA/SIPP once the dollar gets cheaper i.e DXY down below 90. This has been mentioned on here before and a friend mentioned these two as possible ways of holding USD in investment accouints-

GBUS - WisdomTree Long USD Short GBP
XUSD - Xtrackers USD Rate Swap UCITS ETF
plus I also found:
SMTC - LYXOR INDEX SMART CASH UCITS C USD CAP

As always, check their suitability and all the small print!

[Loki]

13 minutes ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

The recent thougts I had were around holding US dollars in an ISA/SIPP once the dollar gets cheaper i.e DXY down below 90. This has been mentioned on here before and a friend mentioned these two as possible ways of holding USD in investment accouints-

GBUS - WisdomTree Long USD Short GBP
XUSD - Xtrackers USD Rate Swap UCITS ETF
plus I also found:
SMTC - LYXOR INDEX SMART CASH UCITS C USD CAP

As always, check their suitability and all the small print!

Great idea!

[Heart's Ease]

 

[Popuplights]

4 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

 

What on earth could go wrong eh??

[Democorruptcy]

2 hours ago, Loki said:

Apologies, I know I'm guilty of using this thread to discuss day to day moves.  I'm not worried by it at all, just curious about the cause(s) and on quiet days it is interesting to see what the Big Brains think.

Completely agree with the bit in bold

I don't know why you are apologising for discussing day to day moves. You can make money out of them, so why not? DB talks like a macro investor but does a lot of buying and selling in the short term.

[nirvana]

52 minutes ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

The recent thougts I had were around holding US dollars in an ISA/SIPP once the dollar gets cheaper i.e DXY down below 90. This has been mentioned on here before and a friend mentioned these two as possible ways of holding USD in investment accouints-

GBUS - WisdomTree Long USD Short GBP

Interesting bet BUT £ vs $ is about what it was 3 years ago.....it spiked up, it spiked down......alas there is no clear trend...

IN fact it's about the same level it was 4 years ago!

 

[Popuplights]

50 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I don't know why you are apologising for discussing day to day moves. You can make money out of them, so why not? DB talks like a macro investor but does a lot of buying and selling in the short term.

Yes indeed, and it would be boring if we didn't make any more comments until 2028.....😁

[Harley]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I added some Bayer today,small opening position,looking to add going forward.

I see what you did there!

[Harley]

2 hours ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

In my view, it can be hard to differentiate between trading short-term noise and long-term trends

My solution was to have two separate accounts, one for trading and one for longer term investing.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Nicolas Turgeon said:

This has been mentioned on here before and a friend mentioned these two as possible ways of holding USD in investment accouints-

GBUS - WisdomTree Long USD Short GBP
XUSD - Xtrackers USD Rate Swap UCITS ETF
plus I also found:
SMTC - LYXOR INDEX SMART CASH UCITS C USD CAP

Plus getting a multi-currency brokerage account like interactive Investors, Interactive Brokers, Degiro(?) and Saxo Bank(?) and just holding the USD.  Possible in some SIPPs but not possible in ISAs due to the HRMC rules.

[Harley]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

CEO of Conoco agrees with my thesis, good to see it percolating out into the MSM:

https://www.ft.com/content/cddf0d0a-be85-4bc2-a236-70ab87c22201

...

There's nothing that ground breaking about what I say on here, really. Any oilman or geologist can see the decline curve problem etc, but I have to give credit to this guy for betting $13bn on it.

Bought my first tranche of COP this week.  Had some of the better financial metrics that I look at of their cohort.  One of four I bought in their industry.  Indeed, bought tranches of all sorts of odd stuff!  All international.  DYOR.

[StrugglingMillennial]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

I see what you did there!

Anything to do with the dip because of that farmer in france?

I see its dipped lately.