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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/factors-pay-attention-ahead-bps-121512106.html

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its a very difficult time and people can only do what they think best for the longer term.

Agree there buddy!:Old:

 

Some big days coming up for the oilies prior to Xmas...

Any thoughts of any chance of any further Divi cuts this coming week? BP or RDSB?

BP’s closing price was just in the blue again at close; so two days in a row Friday pm, just. But did not really have any kind of price mark up reflecting positive news for the coming week?

Be interesting to see what movements Monday morning brings, thought we’ d see a more elevated BP price Friday close considering the yield to price ratio. Maybe bad news, divi cuts?

Shell on the other hand seems now to be on an upward trend, long may it continue, the missus might come back to me..

Could anybody be kind enough to point me in the direction of where I can find the futures chart for BP and RDSB for Monday morning? Been looking; but for the life of me lost?

 

Tuesday Oct 27th – BP Third quarter 2020 results and third quarter 2020 interim dividend announcement

Thursday Oct 29th - RDSB Third quarter 2020 results and third quarter 2020 interim dividend announcement

Tuesday Nov 5th – BP Ex Dividend Date

Thursday Nov 12th - RDSB Ex Dividend Date

 

 

 

 

 

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@Wheeler Royal Mail up 101% xD i actually tagged the bottom on them,but not jumping for joy as im just about up on them now.Im really pleased to see Harmony Gold do so well.They were my top rated rubber band stock and have really delivered for people.They are superb miners,really top rate managers and have a fantastic CEO and CFO.Frank hedged them just right to get through the down turn and although they had to give a bit back on some hedges it was very well done.Sibanye as well have old school managers.Bought up the industry and consolidated it during the down cycle with debt.Looked crazy to outsiders,but they knew what they were doing.

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@Panda id see the chance of a divi cut from BP as close to zero.They can fund everything with Brent at $40 and a cut now would see the entire executive team removed.The thing to see is how close they are to their debt target,because once that hits i expect they will move to share buy backs quickly.They will want to try to get some away before the price moves.Hopefully then the woke funds etc sell into any strength etc and we can take the share count down while the price stays down.I want all weak hands out of these sectors before they move higher.I dont want them moving yet,id far rather they stay down for longer.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Wheeler Royal Mail up 101% xD i actually tagged the bottom on them,but not jumping for joy as im just about up on them now.Im really pleased to see Harmony Gold do so well.They were my top rated rubber band stock and have really delivered for people.They are superb miners,really top rate managers and have a fantastic CEO and CFO.Frank hedged them just right to get through the down turn and although they had to give a bit back on some hedges it was very well done.Sibanye as well have old school managers.Bought up the industry and consolidated it during the down cycle with debt.Looked crazy to outsiders,but they knew what they were doing.

I'm just about level on Royal Mail. It's a shame they are not paying a juicy dividend though. 

I took some profits from Harmony in May this year as I was too heavily invested in South Africa. They are up 45% in the 6 months since. However I did buy Coeur at the beginning of June with the profits and they are up 152% since then so swings and roundabouts! If only it always worked like that.

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5 hours ago, Sideysid said:

https://www.thelondoneconomic.com/news/another-u-turn-banks-uneasy-over-pms-plan-for-low-deposit-mortgages/09/10/
 

“We don’t want to be part of the problem for the future,” said a senior executive at one high-street lender told the publication. “People won’t thank us in 12 months’ time if they are saddled with unsustainable debt on their homes.”

The banks know what’s going to happen just like the government does, they are just putting on a charade to the masses.

All the furloughs, giveaways, and props have dangerously set a ticking time bomb and the general public are blissfully unaware. They see no reason why house prices can’t rise and the BoE can’t print forever and they can’t continue to be paid sitting at home indefinitely.

Most have no perception of recessions, let alone what’s coming and what the impact will be to them personally.

Or the banks are pushing the government for another `We will cover your losses on a default but you can take the profits` initiative like HTB?

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5 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

This time as well at last iv got the oldest car in the car park out of 1000 employees.I noticed two older last time.Im really proud of that.Cant beat a 2.0l diesel engine

Frugalness as a `Badge of honour` rather than something to be `ashamed` of...I am amongst kindred spirits! :-)

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5 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I think there could be some great opportunities in EM markets if the $ really gets hit hard in coming years, but I am concerned that the years ahead really will be different this time and if inflation runs hot I'm not too sure holding a DM index ETF is a safe play (maybe DAX?).

This could be the decade for the active managers to reclaim their purpose.

The thing is they screw it up and they have lost your money...you go solo and do it yourself and screw it up, you have lost your money! :-) :-) :-)

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Democorruptcy

What do we think of a £222m annual return on opening amount of £29,506m that grew to £38,253m by year end?

0.0075% or 0.0058%

This is the National Insurance Fund's best shot at reducing the National Debt?

Quote

 

Commissioners for the Reduction of the National Debt National Insurance Fund Investment Account

Performance analysis

During the year, the NIFIA generated a total comprehensive income of £222 million (2018-2019: £187million). The increase was due to a rise in average interest rates on the NIFIA’s investments as well as a higher average balance of funds available for investment in the NIFIA during the year.As at 31 March 2020, the total value of investments held by the NIFIA had increased to £38,253 million (31 March 2019: £29,506 million). This increase was due to a net deposit of funds by the NIF during the year.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/928859/National_Insurance_Fund_Investment_Account_Report___Accounts_2019-2020__accessible_.pdf

 

 

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8 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Which ones?

BAE , British Land , Smiths Group , Direct Line , RSA , Aggreko all suspended them but have since paid or announced one.

i like to have a my money spread far and wide , i perhaps own shares in far too many companies but i like knowing i have regular income.

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Democorruptcy
2 minutes ago, headrow said:

BAE , British Land , Smiths Group , Direct Line , RSA , Aggreko all suspended them but have since paid or announced one.

i like to have a my money spread far and wide , i perhaps own shares in far too many companies but i like knowing i have regular income.

Thanks.

@Wheelerposted this link in reply if you missed it https://www.dividenddata.co.uk/dividend-cuts.py?market=alldividends&sort=resumed&order=0

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Just now, Democorruptcy said:

Thanks.

 

Could do with New River , BT , Carnival and Land Securities reinstating them but i think it will be a long time before any of them do. Have avoided putting in any more money into companies that have suspended payments.

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Democorruptcy
1 minute ago, headrow said:

Thanks.

 

Could do with New River , BT , Carnival and Land Securities reinstating them but i think it will be a long time before any of them do. Have avoided putting in any more money into companies that have suspended payments.

I made the decision not to put any money into firms that had suspended divis but got sucked in when BT dropped below a £1. BT paying their execs 75% of their bonus amount is annoying! Good luck.

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7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv gone back to work headrow but not because i need to.I got offered a good job back in June to do with covid and then i got offered an even better one back with an old employer.Iv gone back for several reasons.Main one is it means i can re-invest all my divis again and given the prices of many assets i want thats a great position.I can also save 80% of my salary so i can SIPP down to £1k a month to pay no tax,or another route.Im just working that out at the moment as my SIPP is pretty much already at the level where i can draw down tax free from 55 etc so the only gains would be investment gains on the saved tax and inheritance tax shielding.Another reason is my children.They are all doing well etc but with the situation i thought it prudent to be in a position where i could prop them up if needed without having to touch capital.

My partner also has a bit of ill health and i want to set aside enough so she can retire at 55 if needed.She is 100% fine pension wise from 60 as she has a state final salary,house rented out paid for and enough in capital to cover 60 to 66/67 .She is saving 70% of her salary now as well,but i could get her over the line very quickly without having to cost her into my capital etc.

This time as well at last iv got the oldest car in the car park out of 1000 employees.I noticed two older last time.Im really proud of that.Cant beat a 2.0l diesel engine.

 

Yes ,totally different circumstances to me. We do have one thing in common though , i drive a 12yr old diesel van.

 

I have no reason to work now , i get 11k rental income which takes care of my tax free allowance , i haven't touched this in 4 years though and it just sits as cash , i like the feeling of security it gives me. I'm single, my only child has left town for London and got a very well paid job and i have got my bills down to about £200 a month for CT , gas , electric , water and phone . if needed i could feed myself for £20 a week . i worked from aged 16 to 50 so have full contributions when i get my pension in 15 years and a private pension that will hopefully pay out about 7k a year when i am 60 in 7 years time.

 

I'm not knocking people who still want to work , i've just discovered that i don't want to and more importantly don't need to. I just love having a stress free life , working and in a relationship didn't offer me that:D

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14 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I made the decision not to put any money into firms that had suspended divis but got sucked in when BT dropped below a £1. BT paying their execs 75% of their bonus amount is annoying! Good luck.

I'm just glad i avoided cineworld , it was on my radar because it started to pay quarterly dividends , to an income investor like me i find that very attractive but for some reason i never got tempted . I remember getting the Greene Kind windfall and thinking abut buying Cineworld but bought Man Group instead. Got lucky that day.

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23 minutes ago, headrow said:

Yes ,totally different circumstances to me. We do have one thing in common though , i drive a 12yr old diesel van.

 

I have no reason to work now , i get 11k rental income which takes care of my tax free allowance , i haven't touched this in 4 years though and it just sits as cash , i like the feeling of security it gives me. I'm single, my only child has left town for London and got a very well paid job and i have got my bills down to about £200 a month for CT , gas , electric , water and phone . if needed i could feed myself for £20 a week . i worked from aged 16 to 50 so have full contributions when i get my pension in 15 years and a private pension that will hopefully pay out about 7k a year when i am 60 in 7 years time.

 

I'm not knocking people who still want to work , i've just discovered that i don't want to and more importantly don't need to. I just love having a stress free life , working and in a relationship didn't offer me that:D

Good luck to you.

You worked hard to get there...

What sort of value or cost size portfolio of stock do you require to be able to draw income. Hence not work.

I ask as I've only today realised. Divs are taxed at 7.5% after your first PA £12.5k and £2k..

 

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7 minutes ago, Panda said:

Good luck to you.

You worked hard to get there...

What sort of value or cost size portfolio of stock do you require to be able to draw income. Hence not work.

I ask as I've only today realised. Divs are taxed at 7.5% after your first PA £12.5k and £2k..

 

No divi tax in an ISA Panda or SIPP.Knack for me is to get the mix right between cash,ISA and SIPP.If i retire again now,as i will at some point soonish then my divis from ISAs wouldnt quite be enough so id run down my cash a bit as well,but my SIPP divis would easily make up for that.SIPP and ISA together are about twice what i need.

Its just a personal thing but i always keep 5 years direct debit bill money in cash.Its not inflation protected of course and it doesnt cover food,car etc,but iv always done it and its served me well over the years.

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7 hours ago, Barnsey said:

I think there could be some great opportunities in EM markets if the $ really gets hit hard in coming years, but I am concerned that the years ahead really will be different this time and if inflation runs hot I'm not too sure holding a DM index ETF is a safe play (maybe DAX?).

This could be the decade for the active managers to reclaim their purpose.

Well the Asians keep coming up on my screens.  The US ones do too due to their mkt caps but often fail on many fronts like their levels of debt and intangibles. They often look a bit stuffed financially and offering poor value.  Similar with many non-US sector leaders too.  Another reason a market cap based tracker really doesn't appeal.  AsiaPac for me and other more emerging markets and Russia, plus very selective European and North American market picks, usually middle to bottom of the top 15 in a sector.

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14 minutes ago, Panda said:

Good luck to you.

You worked hard to get there...

What sort of value or cost size portfolio of stock do you require to be able to draw income. Hence not work.

I ask as I've only today realised. Divs are taxed at 7.5% after your first PA £12.5k and £2k..

 

Another reason to look at total return and use that currently massive annual CGT allowance in addition to ISAs and SIPPS.  Plus claim a tax credit for any withholding taxes on foreign divs.

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37 minutes ago, Harley said:

Another reason to look at total return and use that currently massive annual CGT allowance in addition to ISAs and SIPPS.  Plus claim a tax credit for any withholding taxes on foreign divs.

Harley old chap.

With my luck. My entry points. Re. RDSB and BP.

CGT is the least of my worries. I'm down big time. Not seen a blue number since I first opened my HL Share and Stock Trading account. 

This market the last few months has been brutal.

But you know what. Found shit out about myself I never knew.

Learnt so much. It's not till your doing it with real money, your cash do your really learn from your own mistakes.

Loved every minute of it. Roll on next week. Hope the quarterly's are positive and we see some uplift.

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1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Its just a personal thing but i always keep 5 years direct debit bill money in cash.Its not inflation protected of course and it doesnt cover food,car etc,but iv always done it and its served me well over the years.

Shove it in premium bonds and you shouldn't lose that much against inflation.

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