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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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NogintheNog

NogintheNog

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Loki said:

Pension hit HL SIPP today and is £5000 not £1000 :Jumping:

First purchase XOM when the market opens

Just off for another chunk of RDSB myself. Despite it feeling like catching a falling knife:CryBaby:

I normally buy RDSB and BP at the same time. I freely admit though with BP to reveal all tomorrow I'm just to 'chicken' to play upfront, so I'll wait and see what the rest of the week brings...

Got some XOM in my SIPP which is about -30% down. Luckily I sold some TOT in that SIPP earlier in the year which covers that loss so may jump again this week.

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
Just now, NogintheNog said:

Just off for another chunk of RDSB myself. Despite it feeling like catching a falling knife:CryBaby:

I normally buy RDSB and BP at the same time. I freely admit though with BP to reveal all tomorrow I'm just to 'chicken' to play upfront, so I'll wait and see what the rest of the week brings...

Got some XOM in my SIPP which is about -30% down. Luckily I sold some TOT in that SIPP earlier in the year which covers that loss so may jump again this week.

You read my mind...just bought RDSB in the SIPP.  And yes, hesitant on BP (Not that it really matters unless they go bust) but with so many good choices to make it's like a kid in a toy shop xD 

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NogintheNog

NogintheNog

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Loki said:

You read my mind...just bought RDSB in the SIPP.  And yes, hesitant on BP (Not that it really matters unless they go bust) but with so many good choices to make it's like a kid in a toy shop xD 

To be honest I'm only playing because Fortiana Holdings just paid me for some shares in Highland Gold Mining (HGM) which I decided to let go. (Not all of them, but I've just had another notification they want the rest as they are after taking HGM private, but that's another story!)

Let's hope you are right Loki, I feel these are good choices but it's hard to see through the fog at the moment:S

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

China crude imports by origin:

Screenshot_20201026-095939_Twitter.thumb.jpg.f7703497b03fec58983e18b43b63ae70.jpg

There is a lot of geopolitics and trends for the next decade you can read from that.

First one for me is: they've gone from ~5m to over 11m in the last ten years. If that trend is to continue, even just linearly, where you get an extra 6m bpd from? The only ones with real growth potential on that list are Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, UAE and Oman. Maybe incremental from Russia, if they feel like it. Flat are Saudi, Kuwait, Qatar, Colombia. In decline are Malaysia, Angola, Congo, US, and Norway (temporary Johan Sverdrup bump). 

Most notable is the absence of Canada, which has the highest growth potential of all. The US essentially controls Canadian exports, but an interesting point to watch is the Trans Mountain Pipeline across the Rockies to Vancouver which is being expanded in capacity. Let's see if they sell any to China, and watch how China is currently meddling in Canadian politics.

Edit: Brazil is also a supplier here, but I'm not sure what that's about, as Brazils has very little export capacity relative to its consumption. Perhaps they lack refining capacity so export crude and import products.

CP, I know it wasn't your main point, but the 'Trans Mountain Pipeline' project you mention did catch my eye. I notice that Kinder sold its interest in that project in 2018 to a (commercial arm) of the Canadian government (apparently 'unresolvable First Nation' problems stalled the development; which will now, with more state handouts, miraculously progress - or am i being cynical?).

Btw the infrastructure pipeline companies generally look good value and are also traditionally good divi payers. Do you own any CP?

I wonder, do any of these - Canada focused ones - look good to others here: Plains All American, Kinder Morgan, Inter Pipeline, ENB?

 

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

To be honest I'm only playing because Fortiana Holdings just paid me for some shares in Highland Gold Mining (HGM) which I decided to let go. (Not all of them, but I've just had another notification they want the rest as they are after taking HGM private, but that's another story!)

Let's hope you are right Loki, I feel these are good choices but it's hard to see through the fog at the moment:S

I'm not too concerned about that fog.  What really worries me the ultimate destination of 2030... this place might not exist, for example.  I will still be nowhere near retirement, I worry that will have no idea what to do with my current investments to protect them after this growth cycle.  I'd sell them all and buy gold, for example - but is ~$10,000 the top, or a stop along the way?

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NogintheNog

NogintheNog

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, Loki said:

I'm not too concerned about that fog.  What really worries me the ultimate destination of 2030... this place might not exist, for example.  I will still be nowhere near retirement, I worry that will have no idea what to do with my current investments to protect them after this growth cycle.  I'd sell them all and buy gold, for example - but is ~$10,000 the top, or a stop along the way?

Well on the plus side you have plenty of time to retirement!:) Yes it's difficult as DB has said "no one rings a bell", and that applies at the bottom or top! Will we see $10,000 Gold in my lifetime? That's one hell of a jump! Saying that it went from under $300 in the noughties to $1,900 in 2011, so it's possible!

I think one thing that is certain is taxes. The old saying 'Death and taxes' comes to mind. Use SIPP's, pensions and ISA's while you can. Filter into ISA's once you start drawing pensions tax efficiently. There's gonna be a big bill for all of this...

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kibuc

kibuc

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, Loki said:

From 2016

 

That is some scary shit.

If we own nothing and only rent it, who will we rent it from? Surely, some people will own everything and most of us will own nothing? Basically, a UK housing market extrapolated to the entire global economy.

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, Loki said:

From 2016

 

There are Aliens everywhere already....bloody state of them as well :o

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Majorpain

Majorpain

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, kibuc said:

That is some scary shit.

If we own nothing and only rent it, who will we rent it from? Surely, some people will own everything and most of us will own nothing? Basically, a UK housing market extrapolated to the entire global economy.

A feudal system in other words, only with the "advantage" of modern technology giving everyone an individual social score to keep a lid on any dissent.

I wouldn't be surprised if some countries go down that route, the Chinese have been helpfully exporting their surveillance tech to others for many years now.

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Noallegiance

Noallegiance

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Loki said:

From 2016

 

You will own nothing

You will be happy

You will own nothing

You will be happy

You will own nothing

You will be happy

The greater good

Are you an effective team?

The greater good

You will own nothing

Are you an effective team?

You will be happy

The greater good

Resistance is futile

Your biological and technological distinctiveness will be added to our own

You will be happy

You will own nothing

The greater good

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted

I think we're going full speed down the shitter soon.....

To sell or not to sell, that is the question....

 

giphy.gif

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Craig

Craig

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

You will own nothing

You will be happy

You will own nothing

You will be happy

You will own nothing

You will be happy

The greater good

Are you an effective team?

The greater good

You will own nothing

Are you an effective team?

You will be happy

The greater good

Resistance is futile

Your biological and technological distinctiveness will be added to our own

You will be happy

You will own nothing

The greater good

Lyrics to Radiohead's new single?!

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Loki said:

but why?

I'm overweight oilies.......hoping the results tomorrow are poo and I'll buy back in at a lower price.....

I was sort of a bit bored too; need to set myself some weekly targets and try and stick to them

This covid crap has wings as well.....I knew 6 months ago it would resurface in the autumn so I'm sort of pissed off with myself for hanging onto some of these stocks for too long....

I know it's a tough gig, short vs long term view.......even tougher when you have OCD xD

Oh yeah, them tea leaves are not looking good either ;)

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nirvana

nirvana

Posted
Posted

Right then bitcoiners, where do you go for your charts?*

Overlay a Nasdaq chart over bitcoin...please

I didn't like the way that rip in the Nasdaq got sold off........I see bitcoin got sold off as well :P

So who is the market leader here????

* Sorry forgot bitcoiners HODL til they die.....sorry cynical me, only cos I didn't mine the stuff :CryBaby:

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Popuplights

Popuplights

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

In other news SAP shares collapse 21%......God I used to work with SAP, that was boring too but should have stuck with that boring for longer......maybe.....

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-25/sap-cuts-year-revenue-outlook-citing-covid-19-impact-on-demand

Good. Fuck SAP and the horse it rode in on. The least intuitive GUI ever devised by man. 

Fucking Germans. 

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

I'm overweight oilies.......hoping the results tomorrow are poo and I'll buy back in at a lower price.....

I was sort of a bit bored too; need to set myself some weekly targets and try and stick to them

This covid crap has wings as well.....I knew 6 months ago it would resurface in the autumn so I'm sort of pissed off with myself for hanging onto some of these stocks for too long....

I know it's a tough gig, short vs long term view.......even tougher when you have OCD xD

Oh yeah, them tea leaves are not looking good either ;)

Fair play, the only strength I offer the current market is that I am a stubborn bastard.xD

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