Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

11 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Fucking Germans. 

I generally like zee Germans....not too keen on the birds with hairy armpits though.....

I think the 2 guys* who started SAP were ex IBM

And I'd take anything 'Made in Germany' over 'Made in USA'.........BUT I did once buy a pair of Timberland boots and a couple of t-shirts in USA many years ago and they were quality.....

think we could do with a USA vs Germany thread? 

*edit: looks like it was 5 of the kraut bastards...

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, Loki said:

Fair play, the only strength I offer the current market is that I am a stubborn bastard.

you need to be careful being stubborn, that was me during the dot com boom and it cost me £100k+.....

I've got a new strategy with BP and RDSB.......buy in 20k tranches looking for a 5-10% 'dead cat bounce' 

of course if it doesn't bounce I'm just 'in it for the long term' innit guvnor 

[Democorruptcy]

7 hours ago, Loki said:

Pension hit HL SIPP today and is £5000 not £1000 

How do you get a £1000 SIPP?

 

 

 

Start with £5000!

[JMD]

I know this forum is well aware of the phenomenon - but its interesting/alarming to actually hear a lecture along with examples of how the etf/index funds are manipulated in order for the fund companies to earn fees... works until it doesn't. 

Also interesting to hear how China and Japan CB's have been investing into their own and others stock markets. I wasn't aware that these type of large scale equity purchases (only previously heard of China buying US debt) had been happening since at least 2016 (video date).

 

 

[CVG]

1 hour ago, Craig said:

Lyrics to Radiohead's new single?!

Sounds like The Smiths - apart from the You will be happy bit.

[JMD]

Useful stock screener - only does US market (unless you pay subscription).  

https://finviz.com/screener.ashx

Lots of discussion recently about how useless these screeners generally are.

 

Harley, i wonder if you'd like to 'road-test' this particular screener and compare it to others you have used? I think you have looked into most of these screeners previously and found them in the main seriously wanting. It's just that the design of this one looks good, appears easy to use, and seems to have lots of data (eg % of company that's owner owned/institution owned is interesting).    

 

[janch]

Latest from Shaun Richards on pensions in trouble:

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

[nirvana]

Better call in the PPT quick.....

Anyway Trump is good entertainment don't you think....he doesn't like windmills 'Made in Germany' though  

https://video.twimg.com/amplify_video/1320751635916869632/vid/1280x720/XgEON45IQcOvshOd.mp4

[DurhamBorn]

16 minutes ago, janch said:

Latest from Shaun Richards on pensions in trouble:

https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/

It will be the story of the decade i think.Once gilts fall as interest rates rise  pensions close to or in draw down will really suffer.A lot of the problem is the state crowding out the private sector.Printing has ensured  liquidity goes first to the state.This will all reverse once interest rates move.Once inflation is moving higher all QE will stop and the government will have to then get spending under control.

Another key point is equity release wont be an option when rates move up much higher.

[nirvana]

Never fall in love with your investments or...

 

[leonardratso]

uncle daves meltup is late. I might have to take a taxi at this rate.

[Green Devil]

3 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

you need to be careful being stubborn, that was me during the dot com boom and it cost me £100k+.....

I've got a new strategy with BP and RDSB.......buy in 20k tranches looking for a 5-10% 'dead cat bounce' 

of course if it doesn't bounce I'm just 'in it for the long term' innit guvnor 

Got my buy order in rdsb. At 690 😂😂

[Loki]

21 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

uncle daves meltup is late. I might have to take a taxi at this rate.

It's all gone a bit...contrarian squared   

[Popuplights]

1 hour ago, Green Devil said:

Got my buy order in rdsb. At 690 😂😂

You bastard.

[Underwhelmed]

 

[Majorpain]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

uncle daves meltup is late. I might have to take a taxi at this rate.

My money is on 3rd Nov 10pm UK time, US "should" be in turmoil from contested election which is prime time for people to make mischief.

[Loki]

36 minutes ago, Majorpain said:

My money is on 3rd Nov 10pm UK time, US "should" be in turmoil from contested election which is prime time for people to make mischief.

Can you elaborate? I understand the magnitude of the event but not the mechanics 

[UnconventionalWisdom]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It will be the story of the decade i think.Once gilts fall as interest rates rise  pensions close to or in draw down will really suffer.A lot of the problem is the state crowding out the private sector.Printing has ensured  liquidity goes first to the state.This will all reverse once interest rates move.Once inflation is moving higher all QE will stop and the government will have to then get spending under control.

Another key point is equity release wont be an option when rates move up much higher.

I agree with you- inflation will destroy pensions as they are mainly lifestyle funds with a higher proportion of bonds as people approach retirement age. What do you think the polotical fall-out will be if they lose say 50%. The majority of people haven't bothered to learn anything about how pensions work and expect it to be sorted by the fund managers. Not only will there be a lot of angry and worried retirees, but younger people will question whether to save if their pensions can be decimated. 

I think we'll see a big drop in stock and bond prices leading to people wanting to move into cash causing further drops.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Popuplights said:

You bastard.

I hope he bought £1m last year and this order is his last £100, after kicking us in the balls like that.

[Talking Monkey]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It will be the story of the decade i think.Once gilts fall as interest rates rise  pensions close to or in draw down will really suffer.A lot of the problem is the state crowding out the private sector.Printing has ensured  liquidity goes first to the state.This will all reverse once interest rates move.Once inflation is moving higher all QE will stop and the government will have to then get spending under control.

Another key point is equity release wont be an option when rates move up much higher.

Its going to be absolutely brutal DB I reckon. Some currently fairly wealthy people on paper I going to be a lot poorer in a few years

[Talking Monkey]

3 hours ago, leonardratso said:

uncle daves meltup is late. I might have to take a taxi at this rate.

Its bloody late I wonder at what point he throws in the towel and updates his forecast

[Sugarlips]

1 hour ago, Underwhelmed said:

 

I like SVM, his opinions are well thought out, they run rather contrary to a lot of the groupthink (no disrespect intended) here though.

I guess he is in the BK mindset so no inflation yet, oil to drop again, dollar to rise with VIX as the market falls off the cliff.

I figure he is looking at Macro short term 3-6 months whereas Dave Hunter and DB etc are looking at the whole cycle ahead.

I know I’m not alone in questioning if the bottom is in on the value stocks or if they might get smashed along with everything assuming a contested election next week.

Im just going to keep averaging in, small tranches into big oil and trust the long term analysis here and live with the short term pain and reinvest those divi’s. I might have to buy more USD now to make that work though.

 

 

[Noallegiance]

33 minutes ago, Talking Monkey said:

Its bloody late I wonder at what point he throws in the towel and updates his forecast

My relatively uneducated guess would be that a lack of 'stimulus' has the markets jittery and the Fed also because of the lack of political agreement.

Market downtrend to continue and the lower it goes the more printy printy when it does come. Add post-Covid policy/Xmas global jobs decimation.......And print, and print, and print = crack-up boom.

It's the only thing keeping the markets up where they are.

I think that's the gist, anyway.

[Green Devil]

6 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

It will be the story of the decade i think.Once gilts fall as interest rates rise  pensions close to or in draw down will really suffer.A lot of the problem is the state crowding out the private sector.Printing has ensured  liquidity goes first to the state.This will all reverse once interest rates move.Once inflation is moving higher all QE will stop and the government will have to then get spending under control.

Another key point is equity release wont be an option when rates move up much higher.

Rates? Up? 😂😂 

That's clutching at straws a bit. 😉

[Green Devil]

3 hours ago, Popuplights said:

You bastard.

😁

Well I'm Supposed to buy low aren't I?