Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[UnconventionalWisdom]

2 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

wooo you're a glutton for punishment 

What I'm struggling with at the moment is it's pretty clear to me the markets are going down 'short term'*

Not only do the charts say so but so does the news, the elections, the lurgy, the bailout is off blah blah

THERE IS NO FOOKING GOOD NEWS.......even the weather is shite 

Christ I need to go looking for shrooms in the forest....STEP AWAY FROM THE COMPUTER 

*And if it's pretty clear something is going to be cheaper tomorrow, you sell and buy back cheaper or wait.....

But you can't be 100% sure it will go down. People get stung trying to maximise. I'll be happy if it continues to go down for another half a year, that way i can buy more. I know there's a risk with that logic due to death spiral potential, but if you below there's no chance of that, just adding to ladders isn't bad. Missing the boat completely, now that would be bad.

[Talking Monkey]

1 minute ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

wooo you're a glutton for punishment 

What I'm struggling with at the moment is it's pretty clear to me the markets are going down 'short term'

Not only do the charts say so but so does the news, the elections, the lurgy, the bailout is off blah blah

THERE IS NO FOOKING GOOD NEWS.......even the weather is shite 

Christ I need to go looking for shrooms in the forest....STEP AWAY FROM THE COMPUTER 

That is true markets may well be heading down further and I will do a few more tranches across oil and other sectors if it declines.

However the sell out and buy lower approach includes a massive amount of emotion and psychological stress as opposed to the mechanical approach of buying and positoning for the long term

I do understand your thinking though as I understand it from a day trading perspective and in that context your thinking is sound. However this thread is about long term portfolio positioning for a reflation cycle, a reflation cycle which may be preceded by an element of deflation and a lot of dislocation

[Chewing Grass]

The only asset class that moves fast is cash, its like leaving your car in second gear so you can put your foot down without changing gear.

However, the really smart people with money these days have an electronically controlled dual-clutch multiple-shaft automatic gearbox, with automatic clutch operation and the option of fully automatic or semi-manual gear selection.

Which is great if you want to rely on software and keep up with the maintenance fees.

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

Missing the boat completely, now that would be bad.

You never miss the boat completely, that's where investors go wrong.....there are more buses and boats every day....

FOMO is the great killer of common sense in today's 'live for the day' mentality.....cash is a position.....often better than a lot of folk realise....

Maybe I'm just beating myself up for SIPP losses.......and I don't believe in this 'long termism' anymore.....solely cos Mr Market is a crackhead and the FED is the dealer 

[UnconventionalWisdom]

32 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Mr Market is a crackhead and the FED is the dealer

That is certainly true. The central banks have influenced things to the point that nothing makes sense in the markets anymore. Bad news and stock price goes up. But as they pump and pump it eventually leads to catastrophe. That or they get their way and we can rely on FAANG stocks to save the economy 😉

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

The only asset class that moves fast is cash, its like leaving your car in second gear so you can put your foot down without changing gear.

However, the really smart people with money these days have an electronically controlled dual-clutch multiple-shaft automatic gearbox, with automatic clutch operation and the option of fully automatic or semi-manual gear selection.

Which is great if you want to rely on software and keep up with the maintenance fees.

I used to think autos were for grandads but this guy goes 'Porsche hunting' in his 'little' Seat Leon auto 

 

[sancho panza]

On 22/10/2020 at 13:16, DoINeedOne said:

Another interesting site if you like animated data https://ourworldindata.org

I keep having flash backs to this chart.picture paints etc.Utterly compelling.Especially the plateuaing of caol use despite all the bad press post 2000.Says it all.

On 26/10/2020 at 10:02, Cattle Prod said:

China crude imports by origin:

There is a lot of geopolitics and trends for the next decade you can read from that.

First one for me is: they've gone from ~5m to over 11m in the last ten years. If that trend is to continue, even just linearly, where you get an extra 6m bpd from? The only ones with real growth potential on that list are Iraq, Iran, Venezuela, UAE and Oman. Maybe incremental from Russia, if they feel like it. Flat are Saudi, Kuwait, Qatar, Colombia. In decline are Malaysia, Angola, Congo, US, and Norway (temporary Johan Sverdrup bump). 

Most notable is the absence of Canada, which has the highest growth potential of all. The US essentially controls Canadian exports, but an interesting point to watch is the Trans Mountain Pipeline across the Rockies to Vancouver which is being expanded in capacity. Let's see if they sell any to China, and watch how China is currently meddling in Canadian politics.

Edit: Brazil is also a supplier here, but I'm not sure what that's about, as Brazils has very little export capacity relative to its consumption. Perhaps they lack refining capacity so export crude and import products.

Fscianting chart there CP.3mn to 11 mn in 15 years.........................

As with DINO chart above,theres a clear trend i wouldnt bet against.As you say,where is it going to come from?

[JREWING]

The Hedge's are hunting your stop losses. Or hoping the RI's will panic and sell out.

Read this posted elsewhere. Re BP.

Not sure how true it is.

 

Take a look at Reach (RCH) everyone. There’s a short squeeze taking place. Why? One short built a large position of around 4m shares around 66p. You can find that on the FCA website. The average daily volume is less than 1M so they are in big trouble. 

[Bricormortis]

9 minutes ago, Panda said:

 

 

Take a look at Reach (RCH) everyone. There’s a short squeeze taking place. Why? One short built a large position of around 4m shares around 66p. You can find that on the FCA website. The average daily volume is less than 1M so they are in big trouble. 

Was it  5 Minute OCD Speculator ?

[Harley]

4 hours ago, The Idiocrat said:

 

If it's any consolation I'm still down 35% and have continured to buy ladders and reinvest divies. I started buying after it "bottomed" after Deep Water Horizon in 2010! 

BP?  Down 56%!  RDSA probably similar.  All bought back in 2018/9 as a buy and hold income portfolio.  Not bothered in the slightest.  All I care about is the div.  An annuity would have been worse.  Been through it a few times.  Meets my financial plan.  Well covered by PM gains.  That's what a correct asset allocation for your needs does.  Each to their own.  Everyone has different circumstances.    Trading?  There was a time I would double my salary with it!  Too busy these days with a better job!

[Harley]

45 minutes ago, Panda said:

The Hedge's are hunting your stop losses. Or hoping the RI's will panic and sell out.

Read this posted elsewhere. Re BP.

Not sure how true it is.

 

Take a look at Reach (RCH) everyone. There’s a short squeeze taking place. Why? One short built a large position of around 4m shares around 66p. You can find that on the FCA website. The average daily volume is less than 1M so they are in big trouble. 

@DurhamBornsaid shortly after that he was buying back at the February/March lows.  I didn't have the guts, due to what I now understand was a lack of a sufficiently solid big picture, to jump in.  It was a good call and emphasises the need to have a strategy and believe in it and to have it baked in and ready to go else you'll flip flop, not be in control, and miss opportunities.  Just knowing what he did helped immensely.  Bent me back into shape and back to taking an open view.  At least I did not make the second mistake and chase the market given it's overall (but not for some specifics) pullback.  What it did was to encourage me to lock down my strategy and get closer to finalising my watchlist which expresses that strategy.  That took a lot of work from asset allocations to opening/closing accounts.  Stock selection is grunt work but the easy part.  What I've realised is I have, on the investment side, lacked conviction in a solid strategy but as a details guy that takes me time doing the legwork.  There are a hell of a lot of moving parts to properly consider, like a Russian doll.  Things feel right now but the job is never done - these things are organic and need to be constantly validated and tweeked if necessary.  If only I had the time and knowledge 20 years ago.  I would be richer, but life would probably not be any better!

PS:  Jim Puplava, an often long term fan of gold for sound thought out reasons, would often say lower prices were like going into a shop and seeing things on sale.  Not a hint of concern.  He had a long term strategy and conviction which made him see things very differently.  You gotta have conviction.  Not Charge of the Light Brigade conviction, but conviction based on a thought out (in this thread's case macro) strategy.  That's my most important learning from this thread.

[Loki]

24 minutes ago, Harley said:

need to have a strategy and believe in it and to have it baked in and ready to go else you'll flip flop, not be in control, and miss opportunities.  Just knowing what he did helped immensely. 

Totally agree.  @DurhamBorn has given me a strategy that works well with my nature and for that I'll always be grateful (for knowing where to invest and just let it ride... Could have been Amazon if I'd never found this)

[nirvana]

51 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Was it  5 Minute OCD Speculator ?

Not guilty boss! In fact never heard of them....anything to do with a Reach around? 

Short squeezes etc reminds me of Martin Shkreli.....beware BIG Pharma......and only for 'insider traders' methinks but good luck to all who venture that way...

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-martin-shkreli-securities-fraud/

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

At least I did not make the second mistake and chase the market

yup guilty here, first time into oilies I sold out too quickly so second time I went in 'super large'* and ignored my stop losses....complete muppet brain......we live......and hopefully we learn 

*like that shite they serve at fast food outlets....never ends well 

Edit: that first dip of RDSB to £9 and then the subsequent rise to £15 is a really good example of why you SHOULD use a trailing stop loss and actually not be greedy with your profits......

edit again: yes seriously if you let THAT MUCH profit slip through your fingers you need to chop your left bollock off, fry it up and serve it to your partner as a demonstration of how fecking stubborn you are 

[Popuplights]

3 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Oh yeah and all that SIPP loss is fooking oilies

Serves you right!! 🤪

[nirvana]

4 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Serves you right!! 🤪

I know! I flipped the coin of fortune and unfortunately it didn't land on 'All in Horizonte' 

[Popuplights]

3 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

I know! I flipped the coin of fortune and unfortunately it didn't land on 'All in Horizonte' 

I've put that Lear jet catalogue in the drawer for now.

[DurhamBorn]

Good results from BP today.Gas prices starting to move higher due to shale moving lower.That should increase prices across the world as LNG tightens.Markets arent interested of course,their narrative is deflation forever,wind power and electric cars by a week on Thursday.Looking at fund flows its likely selling the UK is starting to run out,and the hated sectors even more so.It will be really interesting in a few years watching the reaction as the very sectors that have been dumped and a bit naughty and dirty shine.People simply dont understand the affect dis-inflation and inflation have on different sectors.Putting massive assets in place when you cant increase prices is donkey work and soul destroying.However once prices move higher and suddenly you can increase by 4%,5%,6% a year its a different story.

BP expect to launch share buy backs later next year,though there is a good chance some working capital might be released soon to start the ball rolling while they are down here.

 

[Shamone]

43 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Not guilty boss! In fact never heard of them....anything to do with a Reach around? 

Short squeezes etc reminds me of Martin Shkreli.....beware BIG Pharma......and only for 'insider traders' methinks but good luck to all who venture that way...

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2015-martin-shkreli-securities-fraud/

[nirvana]

25 minutes ago, Shamone said:

that's what happens! another tale from the dot com era when the BBs where full of ramping etc

A solicitor neighbour was supposed to be ringing me with the next inside tip before his 'inside contacts' started ramping it up....

I never got the call.....circle jerk bastards  ........I think most of the cunts didn't have any foreskin  

[nirvana]

I'm cleaning me shekels........I think I'm going for another BP buy at £1.80 

if that doesn't work out I'm off to gamblers anonymous  

[nirvana]

it's quite interesting how we react differently, you're all like happy, yeah I'm buying more oilies!

I'm the one who is pissed off, YET I sold xxxx oilies yesterday so saved myself a further £1200 loss!

Ha bloody ha 

[MrXxxx]

10 hours ago, Harley said:

I put Sunday's remaining gravy on my potato croquettes last night.  Very nice!  I am kind of central after all.

Moving on, things seem quite quiet here and the other threads.  Covid depression?  All on holiday?!  Specifically for this thread - slackwater, what to do?

I think the problem is Harvey apart from the oilies people can't see any value in the market, and so are waiting for March Mk2/BK.

[Loki]

WPM to trade in London from tomorrow

https://www.wheatonpm.com/news/pressreleases/News-Releases-Details/2020/Wheaton-Precious-Metals-Announces-Publication-of-Prospectus-in-Connection-with-Admission-to-the-London-Stock-Exchange-Common-Shares-Set-to-Begin-Trading-on-October-28th/default.aspx

[MrXxxx]

11 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Bugger!...although knowing the illogical way the markets have behaved recently it probably means they will drop by 10%! :-)

BP LSE close 196p...you see, I am a financial genius/guru! :-) :-) :-)