Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

yeah I dunno if we do this through boredom or thinking we're the next Warren Buffet......

Think I'll get the paper out and stick 'Cut your losers, run your winners' on the bottom of my monitor......

and 'WARNING: You're never too old to behave like a cunt' on the other one 

Cutting and gluing now "Its only a loser if the company goes bankrupt or you sell when its 10% down" :-)

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Does anyone recall me saying 'RDSB sub £8.90 dump the lot'? Well I'm hovering over the sell button but it's such a horrendous loss I'm physically shaking............or maybe it's too cold and I need to throw more wads o cash on the log burner

see the early loss is the easy loss  

Edit: phew it's bounced off 890 

Glad you didn't as I was working today, but will happily buy your `losers` tomorrow on my day off! :-)

[MrXxxx]

5 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

What I'm struggling with at the moment is it's pretty clear to me the markets are going down 'short term

So why if so sure are you buying in/out and not `shorting`?....afraid you might be wrong and don't want `your arse handed to you on a plate?` :-) :-) :-)

[Loki]

Uncle Dave has gone very quiet. 

[JREWING]

The Oilies are on the launch pad. Fully fueled. Ignition switch activated.

Finger on button....

Quote......

This is a typical tree-shake..
Big boys shorting the oilies are not looking for pennies in profits, hence at these levels the degree of imposed risk(s) to the upside, outweighs any potential gains (for shorters), to the downside. The pain from now on will be to the upside and with any meaningful rise or rally, there will be a significant fear trade. Shorters are not the villains. Ask yourself, if you had a billion would you short BP/Shell/Equinor at these levels, and why?

Today's price action looked like a typical whale (whether shorts closing or new larger buyers stepping in) buying, triggering all the stops to increase the volume buying.

The weekly chart is just about to complete its divergence formation. Of course, we need a validation, but the SP has the calendar in its favor; end of the month pension buying pressure + ex-div (5th Nov) next week.

The first resistance target to be tested is 223.

[harp]

Hmmm. So I know quite a few have in the recent past have decided to rotate from PM's into oillies (frying pan into the fire?). But for those Bitcoin folks out there (without derailing from the thread). Is it time to now rotate OUT of Bitcoin after the recent rise TO oil stocks?

[nirvana]

Right I'm back to answer Mr Buffet's questions after shorting the Nasdaq with my CFDs 

@MrXxxxwhat you buying tomorrow then?

For me I think it's wrong to believe that you're not a 'loser' because you haven't sold yet.....not only are you losing but it's the opportunity cost of not being invested in something else!

Quick quiz....what is this a chart of? And it clearly displays a double top 

If anyone is still holding that basket of garbage, well all the luck in the world, cos you need it.... 

QED 

 

[Loki]

16 minutes ago, Panda said:

The Oilies are on the launch pad. Fully fueled. Ignition switch activated.

Finger on button....

Quote......

This is a typical tree-shake..
Big boys shorting the oilies are not looking for pennies in profits, hence at these levels the degree of imposed risk(s) to the upside, outweighs any potential gains (for shorters), to the downside. The pain from now on will be to the upside and with any meaningful rise or rally, there will be a significant fear trade. Shorters are not the villains. Ask yourself, if you had a billion would you short BP/Shell/Equinor at these levels, and why?

Today's price action looked like a typical whale (whether shorts closing or new larger buyers stepping in) buying, triggering all the stops to increase the volume buying.

The weekly chart is just about to complete its divergence formation. Of course, we need a validation, but the SP has the calendar in its favor; end of the month pension buying pressure + ex-div (5th Nov) next week.

The first resistance target to be tested is 223.

Is that a quote by THE AchingBalls? 

[nirvana]

11 minutes ago, Panda said:

This is a typical tree-shake..
Big boys shorting the oilies are not looking for pennies in profits, hence at these levels the degree of imposed risk(s) to the upside, outweighs any potential gains (for shorters), to the downside. The pain from now on will be to the upside and with any meaningful rise or rally, there will be a significant fear trade. Shorters are not the villains. Ask yourself, if you had a billion would you short BP/Shell/Equinor at these levels, and why?

I think the 'pro shorters' got in a long time ago.....it's not a case of new shorters coming to the market....

The pros are pros and they are 'running their winners' 

As for 'shaking the tree', I think that happens with AIM stocks not multi-billion dollar oil companies.....

 

[nirvana]

Maybe I have got this 'arse about tit'.......I'm scratching some measly shekels with CFDs to pay for the drugs etc

Whereas those 'long term dividend investment' stuff in the SIPP is getting mullered...

Sooooo let's get on the Wisdom Tree 3x Nasdaq short ETF thingy for this 'brave new world'?????

Can I do that in my SIPP? COME ON! 

PS who is this AchingBalls geezer?

PPS DAX is getting buttfucked again.....crash alert again for tomorrow 

[leonardratso]

whats all this bitching about.

You pays your money and takes your chance.

[nirvana]

whoops a daisy Oil getting bummed too

 

[Dogtania]

Recently been buying a bit of the oil co's.  Exxon the other week and then had a small amount that was bought in both shell and bp through aj regular investment.  Equinvor too but that was a while back.

Logged into AJ the other day to set up a couple of regular ones.  I don't keep them running but keep money going in the Lisa and periodically put that cash to war.  Didn't realize but had set up BP a few months ago but not cancelled oops.

Anyway very happy altogether with having a strategy to work towards.... Namely being at this macro crux point and moving into undervalued sectors for the medium long term.

Looking at my mini portfolios split across isa sipp and Lisa they haven't actually performed very well though I'm not overly concerned.  Classic bad luck timing on my part... Holding TLT for ages watching it go down from over 6 months then climb back up.  Had a considerable bit in there for me and ended up selling for marginal profit before watching it actually to something considerable.

Gold and silver miners seem to time my buys at some kind of peak of the year (silvers bought iirc start of 2019).  Before this had bought both sibanye and new gold.  Sibanye finally came good and I sold most, before watching it climb a lot more.  New gold obviously had bought a far bigger allocation than sib too 😅

The spray and pray definitely I think is a good idea... Two miners clearly isn't enough did a bit better with the silvies but some kind of dollar average over time would work better...I would have done but since I'm not playing with big money don't want to lose too much in fees.   

Lesson here to me is when it comes to gold and silver this should be considered less an issue in future (ie be prepared to give a bit more away in fees in order to benefit from spreading it out time wise etc).

Anyway what I come back to time and again is the monkey with the pin idea whereby most fund managers underperform over time compared to a blind idiot throwing darts at a pin board of shares.   Of course the folks here definitely not fund managers for their benefit (and clearly neither are they monkeys although until I pay more attention or concentrate I'll happily fit myself into that box).

[DurhamBorn]

45 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

whoops a daisy Oil getting bummed too

 

Chinas off road and on highway heavy vehicle factories are running at 100% capacity.3 months down the line all those new machines will be building roads,railways,houses etc etc.Other big off road Asian manufacturers are ramping up to 100% production.Most of the main European factories are within 10% of full production.Some are working over time.India is lagging running well below capacity but,forward pull looks like 2nd quarter next year should see production head back towards 100%.

Next year and 2022 are looking "above trend".After the financial crisis it took 24 months to recover to around 90% and it trended below full production for several years.

An industrial cycle has started,China is leading the way.It will sweep the world.Energy use will grow hugely once the cycle ramps up.The markets looking the wrong way at a key inflection point.

[jamtomorrow]

1 hour ago, harp said:

Hmmm. So I know quite a few have in the recent past have decided to rotate from PM's into oillies (frying pan into the fire?). But for those Bitcoin folks out there (without derailing from the thread). Is it time to now rotate OUT of Bitcoin after the recent rise TO oil stocks?

Not for me.

Don't get me wrong, I've been buying oilies, but that comes out of the 30% equities pot.

5% BTC pot is HODL until the price ratio to gold tells me we're starting to see comparable store-of-wealth adoption, but I see ~ 30x and several years until we reach that point ... *if* we ever reach that point 

 

[MrXxxx]

Interesting FT article on oil prices near/future and the American election outcome (for work around search for @OCD's post):

https://www.ft.com/content/00f63355-c1fa-4cf8-ad18-450c12440106

Basically if Trump wins good (high) both near/future, if Biden wins low near/high future...the latter as a result of output plateauing whilst waiting for Green energy to kick-in.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

@MrXxxxwhat you buying tomorrow then?

BP, RDSB and whatever else of you portfolio that has dropped 10% today but will be up 50% next week! :-)))

[sancho panza]

11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Chinas off road and on highway heavy vehicle factories are running at 100% capacity.3 months down the line all those new machines will be building roads,railways,houses etc etc.Other big off road Asian manufacturers are ramping up to 100% production.Most of the main European factories are within 10% of full production.Some are working over time.India is lagging running well below capacity but,forward pull looks like 2nd quarter next year should see production head back towards 100%.

Next year and 2022 are looking "above trend".After the financial crisis it took 24 months to recover to around 90% and it trended below full production for several years.

An industrial cycle has started,China is leading the way.It will sweep the world.Energy use will grow hugely once the cycle ramps up.The markets looking the wrong way at a key inflection point.

This really highlights the problem for msot investors in that they're looking the wrong way ie West rather than East.

The next lift uplift demand won't be coming from the Western countries where the junkie gets another shot in the arm as rates go negative but rather Eastern countries where the govt will step in more directly.As per @Cattle Prod recent psots on Chinese oil imports,it's not going to take much of an uplift in Indian/Chinese demand to skew the best laid forecasts totally our of kilter.

Had a chat with my old dear today and she was making the very valid point that world population 7.5bn,China population 1.4 bn,Indian population 1.4bn.Indian/Chinese aspiring middle classes want a nice hosue/car/standard of living,none too concerned with Tarquin/Henrietta and pals from Surrey getting irate about their CO2 emisiions.

Those factory orders are a compelling prop for the thread general thesis at the minute.Industrial cycle has indeded started.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, Panda said:

Of course, we need a validation, but the SP has the calendar in its favor; end of the month pension buying pressure + ex-div (5th Nov) next week.

I think this could be a few interesting 'Double whammy' days...the election result will come at 2am UK time on the 4th, postal votes are allowed upto the 6th, and inbetween is the ex-divi date....Biden clear win with the ex-divi date effect and the BP price will only be going in one direction!

[sancho panza]

https://corporate.exxonmobil.com/News/Newsroom/News-releases/2020/0702_EM-renews-collaboration-with-Princeton-to--advance-low-emission-research-and-energy-solutions

ExxonMobil renews collaboration with Princeton Energy Center to advance low-emission research and energy solutions

“We collaborate with leading universities and institutions around the world to find meaningful and scalable solutions to develop lower-emission technologies” said Vijay Swarup, vice president of research and development for ExxonMobil Research and Engineering Company.

ExxonMobil is the world-leader in carbon capture, sequestering more carbon in the last 20 years than any other company. Princeton University is advancing this technology with new research to better understand how stored CO₂ flows within rocks and interacts with minerals, improving the understanding of underground storage capacity. Future CO₂ storage projects can be more optimally planned and operated to achieve net emissions reductions.

Princeton University scientists are also working with ExxonMobil on the development of carbonate fuel cells. This is in addition to the company’s ongoing collaboration with FuelCell Energy to enhance technology for capturing CO₂ from industrial facilities and electric power generation.

Over the past five years, through the company’s participation in E-ffiliates, ExxonMobil scientists have collaborated with Princeton faculty and researchers to support early-stage research projects that are focused on identifying lower-emission technologies that can accelerate the energy transition. Results have been published in peer-reviewed journals including Nature Geoscience, Science, Applied Energy, Journal of the American Chemical Society, and Energy and Environmental Science.

Princeton’s Andlinger Center for Energy and the Environment is one of five university energy centers ExxonMobil has partnered with to undertake fundamental research to provide low-carbon energy solutions while meeting global energy demand.

Since 2000, ExxonMobil has invested approximately $10 billion in projects to research, develop and deploy lower-emission energy solutions. The company also continues to expand collaborative efforts with more than 80 universities, five energy centers and multiple private sector partners around the world to explore next-generation energy technologies.

 

 

 

 

 

27/10/20

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/oct/27/bp-leads-energy-companies-preparing-two-major-uk-carbon-capture-projects

BP leads energy companies preparing two major UK carbon capture projects

17m tonnes of carbon dioxide to be stored beneath the North Sea every year

BP has set out plans to lead an alliance of energy companies in siphoning off the carbon dioxide from factory flues under new plans in which almost half the UK’s industrial emissions will be stored beneath the North Sea from 2026.

The veteran North Sea oil extractor is leading a partnership including Italy’s state oil company Eni, Norway’s Equinor, National Grid, Royal Dutch Shell and French energy company Total in a plan to transport 17m tonnes of carbon dioxide every year from two separate carbon capture projects based in the Teesside and Humber industrial clusters on England’s east coast.

At Teesside, BP will work with the same oil companies, in a separate venture, to capture up to 10m tonnes of carbon dioxide a year from the industrial cluster – equivalent to the same emissions produced from the energy used by 3m UK homes – from the mid-2020s.

Meanwhile, at the Humber a separate alliance including National Grid, Equinor and power generator Drax hopes to capture at least 17m tonnes of CO₂ from hundreds of refineries and factories.

[MrXxxx]

2 hours ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

For me I think it's wrong to believe that you're not a 'loser' because you haven't sold yet.....not only are you losing but it's the opportunity cost of not being invested in something else!

Can't disagree with that...assuming of course you're not @YRS (where are you fella?, your tips/humour are missed!) and your 'second bite of the cherry' is 'sweet and not sour [again]' :-)

[Loki]

24 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Had a chat with my old dear today and she was making the very valid point that world population 7.5bn,China population 1.4 bn,Indian population 1.4bn.Indian/Chinese aspiring middle classes want a nice hosue/car/standard of living,none too concerned with Tarquin/Henrietta and pals from Surrey getting irate about their CO2 emisiions.

How does this tie in with hydrogen? I still think anything anti-carbon is going to be a drag on efficiency/the economy, even though I find the tech interesting.  Even processing natural gas to remove the carbon is another 'step' where straight value is lost, no matter what happens to BP or Shell's share price

Nature already has energy storage all wrapped up for us, and the CO2 helps crops grow to boot.  (With ref to populations )

[sancho panza]

On 22/10/2020 at 13:16, DoINeedOne said:

Another interesting site if you like animated data https://ourworldindata.org

Like a few on here,I think we're in the process of transitioning to hydrogen but DINO's chart tells us we're some way from that.You can't put food on the table for 7.4 bn people without fossil fuels,not for a long time.

I think a lot of the zero net carbon commitments may well be in the form of carbon capture rather than clean energy until electric and/or hydrogen is ready to do the heavy lifitng,

 

16 minutes ago, Loki said:

How does this tie in with hydrogen? I still think anything anti-carbon is going to be a drag on efficiency/the economy, even though I find the tech interesting.  Even processing natural gas to remove the carbon is another 'step' where straight value is lost, no matter what happens to BP or Shell's share price

Nature already has energy storage all wrapped up for us, and the CO2 helps crops grow to boot.  (With ref to populations )

AS above Loki

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

An industrial cycle has started,China is leading the way.It will sweep the world.Energy use will grow hugely once the cycle ramps up.The markets looking the wrong way at a key inflection point.

Maybe....are you a fan of Alex Jones and Joe Rogan at all? This vid is fascinating, I'm only 1hour23 in but they're saying the globalist agenda is to automate everything and get rid of humans.......covid is just the start......it's an interesting line of reasoning........US election outcome gonna be fascinating 

 

[Loki]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

Like a few on here,I think we're in the process of transitioning to hydrogen but DINO's chart tells us we're some way from that.You can't put food on the table for 7.4 bn people without fossil fuels,not for a long time.

I think a lot of the zero net carbon commitments may well be in the form of carbon capture rather than clean energy until electric and/or hydrogen is ready to do the heavy lifitng,

 

AS above Loki

That's what I mean, even carbon capture is going to be a drag on the economics and efficiency of the operation 

Please don't tell me the whole infrastructure spend is going to be used to fight the CO2 bogeyman