Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

the CO2 bogeyman

that does ignore the fact though that humans are destroying wildlife and forests at a horrendous rate....

 

[sancho panza]

2 minutes ago, Loki said:

That's what I mean, even carbon capture is going to be a drag on the economics and efficiency of the operation 

Please don't tell me the whole infrastructure spend is going to be used to fight the CO2 bogeyman 

I think Lockdown was jsut the Westminster bubbles way of warming us up for a decade of staying indoors under hosue arrest for the greater good aka saving the NHS aka saving the planet aka not killing Grandma aka not killing little Johnny's future.

It would take someone with a scientific/engineering background and the sort of enlightened mind we get on here to go through the science of it but I think my suspicions are very much in line with yours.

[Loki]

Just now, 5min OCD speculator said:

that does ignore the fact though that humans are destroying wildlife and forests at a horrendous rate....

 

I agree and I've said before on other threads that's one of the issues I place far above harmless CO2. Pesticides, fertilizers, soil degradation, habitat loss, plastic pollution, chemical pollution, over fishing...take your pick. 

[sancho panza]

2 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

that does ignore the fact though that humans are destroying wildlife and forests at a horrendous rate....

 

population growth meets need for food meets Tarquin and Henrietta from Surrey organizing climate protests from the spare bedroom of their five bedroomed Grade 2 listed house.

our direction of travel has been unsustainable for some time.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, sancho panza said:

I think Lockdown was jsut the Westminster bubbles way of warming us up for a decade of staying indoors under hosue arrest for the greater good aka saving the NHS aka saving the planet aka not killing Grandma aka not killing little Johnny's future.

It would take someone with a scientific/engineering background and the sort of enlightened mind we get on here to go through the science of it but I think my suspicions are very much in line with yours.

Thanks mate.  It seems hard to even believe let alone explain.  

I won't bang on about CO2 anymore but this site really is good for contrasting what you read in the media.

https://electroverse.net/

Yes it's worldwide, but so is the doom porn they bring us.  We have a maritime climate so are unlikely to freeze to that extent. A few more Beasts from the East might focus a few minds.

[nirvana]

7 hours ago, Loki said:

so are unlikely to freeze

You will once the Gulf Stream gets redirected into the Mediterranean sea 

I can literally feel the temp changes when the wind blows in from the East......normally the prevailing winds from the Atlantic keep the climate ok......so you see the BBC were right and it's all the Russian's fault 

But I'm no longer in the same country as you...good luck! 

 

[Tingles]

First ladders in this morning on BP, RDSB and REP.  Hopefully some XOM this afternoon.

[RickyBacker]

6 minutes ago, Tingles said:

First ladders in this morning on BP, RDSB and REP.  Hopefully some XOM this afternoon.

First ladders! I could climb the bleedin' Empire State with the amount of rungs on mine. 

[Democorruptcy]

RR on a downer -64%!

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/rolls-royce-holdings-plc-ordinary-20p/share-news

Is it that rights 3 for 1 thing?

[Majorpain]

5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

RR on a downer -64%!

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/r/rolls-royce-holdings-plc-ordinary-20p/share-news

They have just issued a load of shares, its to be expected.

[NogintheNog]

On 26/10/2020 at 10:41, NogintheNog said:

Just off for another chunk of RDSB myself. Despite it feeling like catching a falling knife

I normally buy RDSB and BP at the same time. I freely admit though with BP to reveal all tomorrow I'm just to 'chicken' to play upfront, so I'll wait and see what the rest of the week brings...

Got some XOM in my SIPP which is about -30% down. Luckily I sold some TOT in that SIPP earlier in the year which covers that loss so may jump again this week.

Seems a bit weird quoting myself

Well I was pretty convinced I wasn't gonna find the bottom on RDSB on Monday, and so it came to pass. Bought that chunk at 922p, now 866p!

Despite the shouting and hollering on here by some folk, only a very small number of traders/investors will pick the bottom in any investment.

I see a difficult week for the Oilies, the news that antibodies for Covid 19 seem to be lost in those infected meaning a vaccine may be much less effective (if there ever is one!) Libya is in the process of ramping up output, and Opec+ may not be able to agree on keeping the lid on supply, Russia being the main player. Stock markets are generally taking a beating also, so it could actually get even worse as everything gets dragged down further.

On the plus side in the medium term, Oil is going nowhere in it's importance in the world economy. Those graphs showing World energy use said it all in terms of how difficult the transition to 'cleaner' energy will be, if ever.

There will also be pressure on governments to spend money on industrial regeneration, rocket fuel for energy!

I'm happy to play the long game here. If you want to day trade, buy Bitcoin!

[Popuplights]

My portfolio has just gone overall red. 

[Barnsey]

14 hours ago, Loki said:

Uncle Dave has gone very quiet. 

As soon as it was confirmed that the stimulus package was a no go before the election (therefore Q1 2021 at earliest), and covid cases going parabolic, radio silence. Coincidence?

Much of his melt up thesis relied on a stimulus package being passed asap.

[Loki]

2 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

My portfolio has just gone overall red. 

You are like little baby

Oh, you think green is your ally. But you merely adopted the red; I was born in it, moulded by it. I didn't see the green until I was already a man, by then it was nothing to me but BLINDING! 

[NogintheNog]

1 hour ago, RickyBacker said:

First ladders! I could climb the bleedin' Empire State with the amount of rungs on mine. 

Me too, plenty of rungs in years gone by at BP £4+ and RDSB £20+. The pain.....

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

As soon as it was confirmed that the stimulus package was a no go before the election (therefore Q1 2021 at earliest), and covid cases going parabolic, radio silence. Coincidence?

It's strange, I'm sure I remember him saying the stimulus would be A factor but not THE factor.  Maybe we're at the start of the bust, or this is just a final squeeze before his rally arrives.  

[Barnsey]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

It's strange, I'm sure I remember him saying the stimulus would be A factor but not THE factor.  Maybe we're at the start of the bust, or this is just a final squeeze before his rally arrives.  

I think that was possibly conditional on a 2nd wave being much smaller, we all remember him being VERY slow to acknowledge the seriousness of the first wave and many of his followers losing a considerable amount, now he has 4x as many followers and even stronger conviction along with much more publicity.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Barnsey said:

I think that was possibly conditional on a 2nd wave being much smaller, we all remember him being VERY slow to acknowledge the seriousness of the first wave and many of his followers losing a considerable amount, now he has 4x as many followers and even stronger conviction along with much more publicity.

True.  I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now due to the timescales of being a macro guy and not a trader.  I couldn't offer much by way of a counter-argument to his posts other than "LOOK IT'S ALL RED" when who knows what next week or month will bring

I've dabbled a bit on silver with 'fun' money and that's down, I'm just going to let that ride until the fees (CFD) erode the spare margin and I get margin called.  No point throwing good money after bad.  Different story with dividend paying stocks, I've never sold any of mine at a loss, you never know what will happen. 

[sancho panza]

37 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

Me too, plenty of rungs in years gone by at BP £4+ and RDSB £20+. The pain.....

We're similar ,but I've been here before but we only dribbled small amounts in at those prices and invested heavily around the bottom to the extent that I';m comfortable wiht our average price .I remmebr DB saying recently that he'd always thought the bottom on BP would be circa £3 and soemthing like £12 on Shell and I'd have probably gone with figures in those areas if you'd asked me in january.

They're always best guess type estimates,I base mine on historical charts generally.But markets overshoot on the underside and upside regualrly.Our PM miners have virtually all suffered a 30%-50% pullback since purchase in 2017/18/19 before moving up..

Today I'm genuinely weighing up selling some two and three baggers to buy big oil.Can't help it.Dont want to drop our gold exposure but sometimes you look at the stats and think that your Barrick money from 2017 could today buy 5 times as many BP shares as you could  have when you bought the barrick..............................

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, Tingles said:

First ladders in this morning on BP, RDSB and REP.  Hopefully some XOM this afternoon.

fair play to you.You have the sort of patinece I wasn't blessed with.

[sancho panza]

37 minutes ago, Barnsey said:

As soon as it was confirmed that the stimulus package was a no go before the election (therefore Q1 2021 at earliest), and covid cases going parabolic, radio silence. Coincidence?

Much of his melt up thesis relied on a stimulus package being passed asap.

they'll be a stimulus package after the election I'd have thought.

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Majorpain said:

They have just issued a load of shares, its to be expected.

Yes I realised and I'd edited my post. It would be nice if the spread boys didn't know and you could do an opening short then close it quickly!

[Democorruptcy]

40 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I see a difficult week for the Oilies, the news that antibodies for Covid 19 seem to be lost in those infected meaning a vaccine may be much less effective (if there ever is one!) Libya is in the process of ramping up output, and Opec+ may not be able to agree on keeping the lid on supply, Russia being the main player. Stock markets are generally taking a beating also, so it could actually get even worse as everything gets dragged down further.

On the plus side in the medium term, Oil is going nowhere in it's importance in the world economy. Those graphs showing World energy use said it all in terms of how difficult the transition to 'cleaner' energy will be, if ever.

There will also be pressure on governments to spend money on industrial regeneration, rocket fuel for energy!

I'm happy to play the long game here. If you want to day trade, buy Bitcoin!

The up day for oil last week was after the Biden/Trump 2nd debate. Trump did better than in the first one and I think he is seen as better for oil and gas. I think if Trump won oil jumps up. Latest Betfair odds are roughly 1/2 Biden and 2/1 Trump so not that much in it.

[Eventually Right]

5 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

they'll be a stimulus package after the election I'd have thought.

What about the risk of a political deadlock if there's dispute over the election result, or a democrat/republican split in between the white house and one or other of the houses of congress, that means the make-up/size of the stimulus package gets argued over for a couple of months?

(granted, that's kinda what everyone expects right now-the most surprising thing would be if Trump graciously concedes in a week's time, and a bipartisan stimulus package is agreed within a couple of weeks-then we might get the melt-up David talks about!)

[Barnsey]

23 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

they'll be a stimulus package after the election I'd have thought.