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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

No worries, not a prediction, and demand side is I think still uncertain. 

I've already loaded up on long dated calls like you said. 

 

;):Jumping:

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Good to see Shell and BT talk dividends today.Shell was telling in only wanting debt down to $65bill before "20%-30% of operational cash flow in shareholder returns (likely $20 to $30 billion pa returns by 2025).They are itching to start buy backs at these levels and rightly so.BP locked themselves into paying down some debt before buy backs,but it wouldnt surprise me if they release some working capital through their refineries so they can start share buy backs early.

BT are looking good for the cycle.They are starting to push inflation+ increases and its likely others will follow.This is key because rising prices while debt and investment is fixed is where the cash increases come from.

Consumer aligns pricing policies across all products and services to CPI plus 3.9% per annum to provide consistent, predictable pricing for new and regrading customers and to support network investment.

 

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3 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Back in the UK, so topped up the old S/S ISA today. Probably keep my powder dry  until after the US elections now. 

 

Are you tempted to just to wait for the BK?  I've been looking at other videos/Twitter etc (Besides DH's) and I think he is right, just that his timing sucks.  Not that there won't be volatility after the election but I think he is right with next year being it (Although as he says first half, I'd now say second half)xD

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10 hours ago, UnconventionalWisdom said:

It depends on how far you want to take it. The £85k FSCS protection also applies to stocks and shares so may be good to spread the risk. 

The banks know there are many people who will think like you that it's easier to just go with them so the rates or offerings may not be great- compare to the main players-hl, youinvest etc. 

All the platforms are easy to sign up to so there shouldn't be any stress. 

Thanks for that I have opened an account with youinvest .  :)

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20 minutes ago, Loki said:

Are you tempted to just to wait for the BK?  I've been looking at other videos/Twitter etc (Besides DH's) and I think he is right, just that his timing sucks.  Not that there won't be volatility after the election but I think he is right with next year being it (Although as he says first half, I'd now say second half)xD

@Loki , mate if I knew the answer to that, we would all be flying about in Lear jets.

I think I will just wait for the election, and to see if I get made redundant at the end of November!! That may change my attitude to risk. It's all quite exciting!!

Anyway, good news from Shell today, shaved a few points off my losses there...😁😁

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1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

This was an opportunity to harbour some cash and they've taken a different strategy.Be interesting to see how many insiders are buying? @Popuplights

Yep, still dripping 500 quid a month into the company share save plan. I have doubled that since the shares tanked. Seems like a bargain to me!

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10 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

Anyway, good news from Shell today, shaved a few points off my losses there...😁😁

Same here - put £1000 of them into my recent SIPP yesterday too :Beer:

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21 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

WARNING -> IF I'VE BOUGHT YOU ALL KNOW WHAT THAT MEANS?!!!

And today, yes they did! :-) :-) :-).....i knew what you were buying whilst away, I just looked for the reds in my portfolio :-) :-) :-)...welcome back!

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3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Remember when 'moral hazard' was a thing in the GFC? Now every govt in Europe has been told to spend what they want and the ECB will cover it.

Sounds deliciously reflationary B|

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3 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Yep - this is what Art Berman is missing, from the video @Erewhon888 kindly posted upthread. He's absolutely right about energy, the free ride we've had, debt being a call on future energy that won't be there, and the only way out a big reset. He's missing the printing back of the disinflation, and the willingness of us to have one last hurrah, another roaring 20s as @DurhamBorn put it. He's missing what the ECB is screaming from the rooftops "We don't give a f**k anymore come fill your boots! Especially you Italy since you're thinking of leaving"

20201029_220741.jpg.3dbfbd50f2881caaba6ccca3b51305b3.jpg

xDxDxD

I listened to that today and yes even to me it all made sense, but without the 'leads and lags'

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2 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

You'd think so, but then Saudi has been using their previous tranches of western military kit to blow Yemen back to the stone age. I see it as a statement of alliance, like Turkey flirting with the Russian S400 air defence system, as a NATO member. I'm sure they are asking for a hell of a lot in return for not falling on the Russia side. China has turned Iran, Iraq is on the ropes economically and might be China's next move.

Thank you for putting it so clearly - what future do you see for Russia/the former 'far' Eastern bloc?

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4 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Former Soviet states? Putin has made clear they are his sphere of influence. I think Turkey is about gas pipelines, like Syria.

All of it is about energy flows. And its not wind turbine energy. Why would they bother if the future was green?

If you're betting on a green future now with the imminent of oil and gas, you're betting against the combined of most of the worlds (California is excepted, they will continue to lecture us from their blacked-out cities, as their tax base moves to Texas) geopolitical strategy, intelligence services, military commanders and diplomats. And betting with Greta and her political lackeys.

I'm all for a green future too, but it'll take time. Forcing it now means widespread poverty and death for the average person in the world. For the average American  as Berman so evocatively put it, means going back to the horror of a 60s standard if living with a 2 bed house, shared bedrooms, and one car. The horror.

 

 

Thanks mate.  As far as greenwashing goes, don't worry I'm onto them...xD

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7 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

You'd think so, but then Saudi has been using their previous tranches of western military kit to blow Yemen back to the stone age. I see it as a statement of alliance, like Turkey flirting with the Russian S400 air defence system, as a NATO member. I'm sure they are asking for a hell of a lot in return for not falling on the Russia side. China has turned Iran, Iraq is on the ropes economically and might be China's next move.

i think a dash for assets will be a big part of the cycle and drive inflation,that and Indians buying fridges.

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11 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

i think a dash for assets will be a big part of the cycle and drive inflation,that and Indians buying fridges.

Go long Beko?

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On 28/10/2020 at 17:54, DurhamBorn said:

Once people are released from covid hell

So what makes you so certain that this will happen? Serious question, the governments job is to oppress the plebs

One thing I'm certain of now that @Yellow_Reduced_Stickeris back

CRASH ALERT!

Only kidding mate, congrats on the new pad and good on yer!

PS NASDAQ FUTURES -210 ;)

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On 29/10/2020 at 04:40, Gin said:

I have decided to spend £3k  . I have never bought shares in my life. I am willing to lose it , so it is my gamble . :Jumping:

In an investing for dummies language where should I gamble/invest it . ?

I have banked with Barclays now for nigh on 50 years , not that the term is relevant I suppose , but would it be easier & seem less complex to my extremely unacademic mind , to take out an isa with them and invest in Vodaphone and BP say to keep it simple....?

Any opinions from the wise on here much appreciated and all taken with dyor in mind ....thanks.

I am retired .

ps No crack and whores please that would kill me ...:/

You want to keep your fees as low as possible, iweb (part of Halifax) do a one off fee for an isa of £25 so unlike the others you won't be paying a % every year and their buy/sell fee is lower as well. Not the range of the others but they have Vod, BP, RDSB etc ...as always DYOR

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