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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

spunko

By spunko
in Property Prices & Economy

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Sasquatch

Sasquatch

Posted
Posted

Squeaky bum time here at Chez Sasquatch.

We were nicely up on our BV silver (large holding) and I decided to dump the lot this morning on news of the vaccine. I don't necessarily believe that this is the vaccine but the market clearly does, at least today. Not sold the gold holding though.

I'm planning to jump straight back albeit perhaps with a little less silver, bit more gold but want to see what happens when America wakes up. I imagine the US stocks will also surge and perhaps PM will get battered even harder today?

Anyway, decision made. Can't undo it!

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Sugarlips

Sugarlips

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, arrow said:

If David Hunter is right, then after today's rises, possibly 6%, there's another 34% to go and silver to $35.

Then there's the 80% drop from the all-time high for equities

I thought the rises were a mistake when I first logged in.

The 80% to be triggered by Trump’s legal challenge outcomes in spring..?

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arrow

arrow

Posted
Posted
16 minutes ago, Sugarlips said:

The 80% to be triggered by Trump’s legal challenge outcomes in spring..?

David Hunter has said the 80% is inevitable due to the extreme gearing in derivatives,etc. Once people/organisations get called, they'll have to sell not what they want to, but have to. Creating a cascade and a stock market bust.

He's said the trigger could be anything and it's inevitable.

If he's correct, *if*, then there's a stock market bust coming, following a wider economic bust.

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kibuc

kibuc

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Well that didn't take long, Brent 12 month spreads have swung backwardated on that news:

image.thumb.png.35f655279de47d039f63589eb2281838.png

Enjoy the green on your screens today.

Haha, I'm 100% PMs, I think I might want to go for a jog in the park, that's the only green I'm gonna see today :P

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
14 hours ago, sancho panza said:

I'll have a dig up of the XL file when I'm on my PC tmrw.Jsut looking now.Goodwill is larger than equity.

With goodwill you have to have a proper dig as some brands are worth having and there's value in the brand name in some sectors,so I'd never write them off and maybe I'd put a small holding in as they offer access to an exciting market place of teh future.

Also worth noting that low equity levels are common across the sector.

BT compared below appear to be in better shape,intangibles will likely include some weighty IP and tech knowledge,so in time,we;'ll bulk up on BT and set a small runner off on airtel amongst others.

Dyor natch.

image.png.d542811efc2c2c7b7b1a0defc9954ec0.png

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image.png

Another thing to maybe consider across the telecom sector is ownership.

AirTel Africa is wholly owned by its parent (the currently unprofitable) Bharti Airtel (which is itself part of Bharti Enterprises, an Indian conglomerate). SingTel owns 33% of Bharti AirTel. 

decl: i own Singtel; and will look to buy Bharti Airtel if/when it gets cheaper. 

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JMD

JMD

Posted
Posted
On 07/11/2020 at 16:49, arrow said:

David Hunter has now tweeted that we are in the "melt up" stage. So, if he's correct, a 40% rise in US equities, gold and silver is coming. He's also said that energy will "catch up".

He might be right - but in which case how did DH 'know' we were going to get the news release today of a potential cure to our self-inflicted corona-crises?

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Ellandback

Ellandback

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Loki said:

HL is completely inaccessible now.

Those fees are well spent then, I might as well move to Trading 212.  Can't moan about contention on a free platform

Same here, piss poor!

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DoINeedOne

DoINeedOne

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Loki said:

HL is completely inaccessible now.

Those fees are well spent then, I might as well move to Trading 212.  Can't moan about contention on a free platform

It is ridiculous that their servers and others can't deal with a huge growth in visitors 

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leonardratso

leonardratso

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Loki said:

HL is completely inaccessible now.

Those fees are well spent then, I might as well move to Trading 212.  Can't moan about contention on a free platform

cant get charts at the mo

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
Just now, DoINeedOne said:

It is ridiculous that there servers and others can't deal with a huge growth in visitors 

At £12 a trade and with fees yes it is completely unacceptable 

Quote

A technical error has occurred and we are unable to process your request. To continue please contact us on 0117 980 9953. We apologise for any inconvenience.

 

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Junction25

Junction25

Posted
Posted

Hi 

just been made redundant ( but happy regarding the situation)

obviously returns in banks and building societies are very low 

I have 12k spare to put into shares 

over the last year I have put 5k into Shell 

can anybody recommend shares which have would give me dividend and are fairly safe companies? 
a lot of chat recently was buying Vodafone 

I heard National Grid good (5% yield ) 

 

any suggestions would be appreciated 

many thanks 

 

PS I not looking at pulling out of my shares for at least 5-10 years 

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Loki

Loki

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Junction25 said:

Hi 

just been made redundant ( but happy regarding the situation)

obviously returns in banks and building societies are very low 

I have 12k spare to put into shares 

over the last year I have put 5k into Shell 

can anybody recommend shares which have would give me dividend and are fairly safe companies? 
a lot of chat recently was buying Vodafone 

I heard National Grid good (5% yield ) 

 

any suggestions would be appreciated 

many thanks 

 

PS I not looking at pulling out of my shares for at least 5-10 years 

DRAX and Anglo American have done well for me.  Repsol, Exxon and BP also all paying good dividends and at this price BP seems to be a steal.

SSE as well as National Grid too (I hold both)

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leonardratso

leonardratso

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Loki said:

My accounts list is completely blank

 

 

ive got it, ill keep it safe under my bed for you for later.

 

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leonardratso

leonardratso

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Loki said:

Thanks mate, I have always liked you 

hehehe, dont tell frank hovis, he thinks im a brian (cant).

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