Jump to content
DOSBODS
  • Welcome to DOSBODS

     

    DOSBODS is free of any advertising.

    Ads are annoying, and - increasingly - advertising companies limit free speech online. DOSBODS Forums are completely free to use. Please create a free account to be able to access all the features of the DOSBODS community. It only takes 20 seconds!

     

IGNORED

Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 35.1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

coinbase pro is good

lloyds has come back - thus probably the underlying halifax

t212 is still good, some charts back

I havent tried any trades on these though i would expect big queues there on all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, working woman said:

Been thinking about this for a while.......Here's one solution to the upcoming high unemployment problem. Why doesn't the Govt. change the age from when you can take your Private Pension from the current age of 55, back to 50, which it was a few years ago. I'm 54, my husband 52, it would suit us. He has been paying in since 18, so was very peed off when it changed from 50 to 55 as he sees it as his money. I tried to explain you rarely get something for nothing. (Tax Rebate)

Lots of wins:

Freeing up jobs for younger people, debt and mortgages may get paid down, people may downsize, freeing up houses for young families, good for people's health, can do voluntary work, time to set up a small business, lots of money to spend, plus the Govt. get their cut via Tax.   

I take you point, however i believe that more retirees take out equity release loans on their property, than seek to down size.

I agree that it is a problem and government should have policies to encourage downsizing in order to free up large homes for families to buy. Subsidies perhaps, retirement villages, etc?

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, JMD said:

I take you point, however i believe that more retirees take out equity release loans on their property, than seek to down size.

I agree that it is a problem and government should have policies to encourage downsizing in order to free up large homes for families to buy. Subsidies perhaps, retirement villages, etc?

You'd think no CGT on homes and so being able to take practocally all the profits from a debt-fiananced ponzi that's endentured the young would be enough. But it isn't. They even moan about stamp duty and say they refuse to sell because they deserve to have all the profit that theyve "earned" by paying off their mortgage. I think the only incentive that'll work to have people downsize is either house prices going down or, better, land value tax. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Well it's lucky I wasn't planning on any buying/selling today as the website (AJ Bell) has definitely crashed so I can't even see how much I'm worth!

US treasuries are falling and the yield on the 10yr is 0.944 which is up around 15% since Friday so I take it this is the turn we've been waiting for.

I remember @DurhamBornsaying that sentiment is more volatile than in the past because of the internet and I think today we are seeing that in action.  I wonder if US investors are buying UK value companies as the UK market is seen as cheap and has been for ages compared to other markets or is it just UK investors/institutions with money on the sidelines/selling PMs to buy stocks etc.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

BP up 16% it’s acting like a penny share - which means rejoice, my little foray into Energy this year is suddenly in the green, thanks everyone, what an extraordinary world we live in at present 👍

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
Oh GOLLY boys & girls!
 
Looks like Mr Hunters "crystal ball prediction" is coming TRUE!:o
 
ALL we need NOW is for David Icke to CLAIM that the vaccine is 100% SAFE! xD
 
FFS, EVEN Rolls-Royce UP 90% !!! PAGING @MrXxxx
 
ANYONE bought RR last week's LOW at 69p ???
 
image.thumb.jpeg.b95cc1d89f6e00e27a7579902b7900e2.jpeg
 
 
BET ya ALL feeling like ya in ...HEAVEN!
 
YES? Then CHECK out the video below featuring the STUNNING clogg beauty of yesterday Dominique Rijpma Van Hulst...
 
 
 
 
 
Link to comment
Share on other sites

59 minutes ago, The Idiocrat said:

You'd think no CGT on homes and so being able to take practocally all the profits from a debt-fiananced ponzi that's endentured the young would be enough. But it isn't. They even moan about stamp duty and say they refuse to sell because they deserve to have all the profit that theyve "earned" by paying off their mortgage. I think the only incentive that'll work to have people downsize is either house prices going down or, better, land value tax. 

I dont think it at all surprising that people get emotionally attached to their homes and therefore resist moving.

Also, applying penalties on people only makes them double-down, sit-tight and do nothing. Plus any sizeable property taxes levied on the elderly, who are in any case mostly equity rich/ but income poor, would be extracted only after death, and so wouldn't really help those younger eager buyers in the short term. I much prefer encouraging people through providing alternatives that will in turn make their life easier. Surely that's a win-win?   

I agree that house prices are expensive, but debt fueled finance always causes bubbles, regardless of the asset in question. However, in terms of overall house affordability, equally at fault is wage deflation caused by automation, globalisation, a near doubling of number of job seekers as women entered the job market. Not sure if you'd agree with me on any of this, but ignoring those big deflationary drivers, is so shortsighted, yet we hear little conversation about it, perhaps the next cycle industrial cycle will be different.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No problems here with x-o but didnt do a trade,nice to be in the black. 

Might be cos a smaller outfit so less users or basic website,5.99 flat fee per trade.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Not the vaccine driving the market,its liquidity.It was in the pipes.Massive profits today of course,but i was actually hoping things would stay down a bit longer to get divis in at those prices.Remember markets are never linear,todays big rewards should be ignored as should short term draw downs.The focus is on the cycle ahead.Lots more QE to come yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, CVG said:

HL is a joke. I might ask for a partial refund of fees! I wanted to top-slice some profits to put into the miners.

What miners were you thinking of and why? General resource boom or gold and silver? Most of these have acted almost inverse of the vaccine boost. Or perhaps lining up to hedge against the "big one".... I have Fresnillo, Yamana, both uninspiring and off the mid-October highs. Is there better action with others?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Contrarian in my says Biden will be hugely bullish for oil and gas,starting with telling Germany to stop building gas pipelines from Russia.US doesnt want Europe in Russia's pocket.That will be interesting how it plays out.

He will also double down on China like Trump to everyones shock.

 

When he's finished shutting fracking and US shale down,the world can say goodbye to 83% of new supply since 2008 hattip @Cattle Prod and Art B.

 

We're currently down a few bob on Sleepy Joe but the run up in oilies will serve as nice compensation if he gets in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

 

3 hours ago, Sugarlips said:

The 80% to be triggered by Trump’s legal challenge outcomes in spring..?

I think Trump may well have grounds for a challenge.He's fractions away in Wisconsin,Georgia,Arizona and Penn.Says a lot that Betfair haven't called it yet.

At the mo,markets are high.As others have said doesn't matter for economics of it who wins,but uncertainty will be a party killer.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Paulie said:

What miners were you thinking of and why? General resource boom or gold and silver? Most of these have acted almost inverse of the vaccine boost. Or perhaps lining up to hedge against the "big one".... I have Fresnillo, Yamana, both uninspiring and off the mid-October highs. Is there better action with others?

Silver miners. The PM % allocation in my portfolio will have dropped (miners down - other equities up today). So I've top sliced some equity profits (reduced % allocation) in order to put them into miners (increased % allocation). This approach forces me to rebalance - selling high and buying low.

I have just sprayed and prayed a dozen miners mentioned throughout the topic, e.g. Avino, Couers, Great Panther, Pan-American, etc, etc. Some will probably just die but others will bounce hard. Diversification is key.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, arrow said:

David Hunter has said the 80% is inevitable due to the extreme gearing in derivatives,etc. Once people/organisations get called, they'll have to sell not what they want to, but have to. Creating a cascade and a stock market bust.

He's said the trigger could be anything and it's inevitable.

If he's correct, *if*, then there's a stock market bust coming, following a wider economic bust.

My original 360 degree trade was/is FCX.Still some way to go to hit the selling mark but at $30 I'll reassess.If they hit $50 then I'm selling virtually everything but the bottom oil ladders.

PM's will still have their time in the sun before the BK imho.Once the pressie issue is settled and we get the printing.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Well that didn't take long, Brent 12 month spreads have swung backwardated on that news:

image.thumb.png.35f655279de47d039f63589eb2281838.png

Enjoy the green on your screens today.

Nice.Which site are you using to produce that one CP?

That's a super spike.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Another thing to maybe consider across the telecom sector is ownership.

AirTel Africa is wholly owned by its parent (the currently unprofitable) Bharti Airtel (which is itself part of Bharti Enterprises, an Indian conglomerate). SingTel owns 33% of Bharti AirTel. 

decl: i own Singtel; and will look to buy Bharti Airtel if/when it gets cheaper. 

Indeed,I think one of the msot compelling reasons to gain exposure to the sector is the currency hedge offered by the cross holdings of companies like Sing Tel/Vodafone.Ye olde Coma scale scores below,as I've said,balance sheets are poor across the sector compared to other sectors and in more than a few goodwill makes up well over 100% of the shareholder equity,which may or may not be balanced by some shrewd bond issuance eg Vodafone.

dyor natch

Company  Chart Income Bal Sheet CF Sector SCS
Airtel Africa 3 5 2 5 4 19
America Movil 1 4 1 4 4 14
AT&T 4 4 2 5 4 19
BCE 1 3 2 5 4 15
Bharti Airtel 1 1 2 1 4 9
BT 5 5 2 4 5 21
Cellnex 1 3 2 1 4 11
Century Link 5 1 1 5 4 16
Deutsche Tel 2 4 1 5 4 16
Drillisch 3 5 4 4 4 20
KDDI 1 4 3 4 4 16
Koninklijke NV 4 4 2 4 4 18
KT Corp (Korea tel) 5 4 3 1 4 17
MTN (Africa) 4 4 2 4 4 18
Nippon Telegraph 3 4 3 4 4 18
Orange (France Tel) 5 5 2 3 4 19
Proximus (Belgium) 5 4 2 5 4 20
TLK (Indonesia) 2 4 3 3 4 16
Singapore Tel 4 3 3 4 4 18
SK Telecom 2 3 3 2 4 14
Softbank 1 2 1 1 4 9
Swisscom 2 4 2 3 4 15
T-Mobile US 1 3 3 1 4 12
Telecom Italia 5 2 2 5 4 18
Telefonica 5 4 1 5 4 19
Telenor 2 3 1 3 4 13
Telia 4 4 2 4 4 18
Telstra 5 4 2 3 4 18
Telus 1 4 2 1 4 12
Turkcell 1 5 2 5 4 17
United Internet AG 2 3 3 4 4 16
VEON 4 5 1 5 4 19
Verizon 1 4 2 3 4 14
Vodafone 4 3 2 5 4 18
             
Drillisch 3 5 4 4 4 20
Telenor 2 3 1 3 4 13
Turkcell 1 5 2 5 4 17
Airtel Africa 3 5 2 5 4 19
Cellnex 1 3 2 1 4 11

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

 

Indeed,I think one of the msot compelling reasons to gain exposure to the sector is the currency hedge offered by the cross holdings of companies like Sing Tel/Vodafone.Ye olde Coma scale scores below,as I've said,balance sheets are poor across the sector compared to other sectors and in more than a few goodwill makes up well over 100% of the shareholder equity,which may or may not be balanced by some shrewd bond issuance eg Vodafone.

dyor natch

Company  Chart Income Bal Sheet CF Sector SCS
Airtel Africa 3 5 2 5 4 19
America Movil 1 4 1 4 4 14
AT&T 4 4 2 5 4 19
BCE 1 3 2 5 4 15
Bharti Airtel 1 1 2 1 4 9
BT 5 5 2 4 5 21
Cellnex 1 3 2 1 4 11
Century Link 5 1 1 5 4 16
Deutsche Tel 2 4 1 5 4 16
Drillisch 3 5 4 4 4 20
KDDI 1 4 3 4 4 16
Koninklijke NV 4 4 2 4 4 18
KT Corp (Korea tel) 5 4 3 1 4 17
MTN (Africa) 4 4 2 4 4 18
Nippon Telegraph 3 4 3 4 4 18
Orange (France Tel) 5 5 2 3 4 19
Proximus (Belgium) 5 4 2 5 4 20
TLK (Indonesia) 2 4 3 3 4 16
Singapore Tel 4 3 3 4 4 18
SK Telecom 2 3 3 2 4 14
Softbank 1 2 1 1 4 9
Swisscom 2 4 2 3 4 15
T-Mobile US 1 3 3 1 4 12
Telecom Italia 5 2 2 5 4 18
Telefonica 5 4 1 5 4 19
Telenor 2 3 1 3 4 13
Telia 4 4 2 4 4 18
Telstra 5 4 2 3 4 18
Telus 1 4 2 1 4 12
Turkcell 1 5 2 5 4 17
United Internet AG 2 3 3 4 4 16
VEON 4 5 1 5 4 19
Verizon 1 4 2 3 4 14
Vodafone 4 3 2 5 4 18
             
Drillisch 3 5 4 4 4 20
Telenor 2 3 1 3 4 13
Turkcell 1 5 2 5 4 17
Airtel Africa 3 5 2 5 4 19
Cellnex 1 3 2 1 4 11

 

I bought some AT&T today. Nearly 8% dividend payable quarterly.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
ANYONE bought RR last week's LOW at 69p ???

Spent yesterday procrastinating over what to sell to buy it, decided in the end to wait a little longer.

Massive error!  :CryBaby:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Good calls on the guys one here buying oilie stocks! Obviously they leaked some vaccine news so we'd have to pay more to fill the car up this weekend.

Anyone think we will get an time record dow 30,000 close today?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...