Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[The Idiocrat]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

I dont think it at all surprising that people get emotionally attached to their homes and therefore resist moving.

Also, applying penalties on people only makes them double-down, sit-tight and do nothing. Plus any sizeable property taxes levied on the elderly, who are in any case mostly equity rich/ but income poor, would be extracted only after death, and so wouldn't really help those younger eager buyers in the short term. I much prefer encouraging people through providing alternatives that will in turn make their life easier. Surely that's a win-win?   

I agree that house prices are expensive, but debt fueled finance always causes bubbles, regardless of the asset in question. However, in terms of overall house affordability, equally at fault is wage deflation caused by automation, globalisation, a near doubling of number of job seekers as women entered the job market. Not sure if you'd agree with me on any of this, but ignoring those big deflationary drivers, is so shortsighted, yet we hear little conversation about it, perhaps the next cycle industrial cycle will be different.

I certainly do agree on the causes of wage deflation, especially women entering the workforce en masse and immigration - obviously compensated for vastly by debt inflation leading to high house prices. Of course the elderly get attached to their homes, there's comfort in that, I'm in a similar situation with the kids having left for uni, but if the elderly are not incentivised by the carrot of releasing loads of hardly-taxed cash profits by downsizing (they are after all cash poor as you say), then the stick of property taxes would seem to me a good incentive. Ultimately though, I'm of the view that there's a shit ton of land, enough for every one to have a good-sized home, as long as the hoarding of land/houses is disincentivised - from the artistocarcy, the builders, and the elderly. A land tax would help with that I think.

[UnconventionalWisdom]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Not the vaccine driving the market,its liquidity.It was in the pipes.Massive profits today of course,but i was actually hoping things would stay down a bit longer to get divis in at those prices.Remember markets are never linear,todays big rewards should be ignored as should short term draw downs.The focus is on the cycle ahead.Lots more QE to come yet.

I was hoping to add to oilies/energy/telecoms over the next 6 months so hopefully they will come down again. Pension transfer still hasn't come through due to the 4 weeks starting from the next payment term (so start this month). Still not a bad price to get into but I won't be happy if the big gains continue. 

[Junction25]

3 hours ago, Loki said:

DRAX and Anglo American have done well for me.  Repsol, Exxon and BP also all paying good dividends and at this price BP seems to be a steal.

SSE as well as National Grid too (I hold both)

thanks very much 

Was thinking of BAT and imperial Brands as well ?

[leonardratso]

JPM saying S&P 4500 by end of 2021, now where have i seen that number before i wonder?

I see uncle dave is branching out into politics now on twatter, ive sometimes no idea what hes on about, even in th podcasts, but fair dos to him, he doesnt flip flop his stuff.

[Loki]

21 minutes ago, Junction25 said:

thanks very much 

Was thinking of BAT and imperial Brands as well ?

I hold them but not a lot compared to the others.  I think our man @DurhamBorn has said they could do well but I know he sold quite a lot of them way back.  Nice dividends though.

[Bobthebuilder]

17 minutes ago, Loki said:

I hold them but not a lot compared to the others.  I think our man @DurhamBorn has said they could do well but I know he sold quite a lot of them way back.  Nice dividends though.

I own both in my pension and trading account, think I'm probably down on them at the moment but can't log on to see. As you say nice divis and a defensive plus I do like a rollie.

[Tingles]

53 minutes ago, Junction25 said:

thanks very much 

Was thinking of BAT and imperial Brands as well ?

Pretty sure DB said that BAT was a superior money making machine compared with Imperial Brands.  I own BAT but not Imperial Brands...

[DurhamBorn]

 

 

7 minutes ago, Tingles said:

Pretty sure DB said that BAT was a superior money making machine compared with Imperial Brands.  I own BAT but not Imperial Brands as a consequence of his views...

BAT are the best share iv ever owned.Made me massive amounts.More even than any job iv had.I sold them above £50 after decades of owning,it was really hard selling,but very glad to get a lot back around £25.They make around 1c a stick profit i think in the developing world,massive room to keep increasing prices.Too much debt,but the ones i have back il never sell.Just enjoy the divis.

[Democorruptcy]

4 hours ago, Loki said:

At £12 a trade and with fees yes it is completely unacceptable 

 

Complain, you will probably get something.

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Democorruptcy said:

Complain, you will probably get something.

Can't hurt to try 

[Green Devil]

52 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

JPM saying S&P 4500 by end of 2021, now where have i seen that number before i wonder?

I see uncle dave is branching out into politics now on twatter, ive sometimes no idea what hes on about, even in th podcasts, but fair dos to him, he doesnt flip flop his stuff.

As low as that? 😂😂

[Democorruptcy]

3 minutes ago, Loki said:

Can't hurt to try 

I've had more than one bit of compo, not a lot but you might as well. The more that complain must increase the chances of making them get their finger out and fixing the problem.

[Loki]

9 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I've had more than one bit of compo, not a lot but you might as well. The more that complain must increase the chances of making them get their finger out and fixing the problem.

Sent them a brief but to the point message, I'll let you know if anything comes of it!

[Democorruptcy]

7 minutes ago, Loki said:

Sent them a brief but to the point message, I'll let you know if anything comes of it!

One of the FT headlines:

Hargreaves Lansdown suffers system outage amid record trading volumes

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

One of the FT headlines:

Hargreaves Lansdown suffers system outage amid record trading volumes

I wonder if these companies should have their equipment audited as well as their finances.

 

[Loki]

True Contrarian has a new post

https://truecontrarian-sjk.blogspot.com/

[CVG]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

I wonder if these companies should have their equipment audited as well as their finances.

 

I'm biased. I used to work on solid mainframe systems - not the toytown architecture that they prefer today.

[Barnsey]

 

[leonardratso]

17 minutes ago, CVG said:

I'm biased. I used to work on solid mainframe systems - not the toytown architecture that they prefer today.

heheh, i once sat next to ops in TNS a few decades back when a warning came up on the console, we went had a look in the machine room and the OS-390 was on fire, hehehehe, just got out before the haylon came down.

[DurhamBorn]

Reflation thread posters today at 11.30am 

 

[Viceroy]

Someone here (DB?) posted about these guys, so I subscribe to their free newsletter. V thorough and lots of info.

https://f.hubspotusercontent40.net/hubfs/4043042/Commentaries/2020.Q3 Commentary/2020.Q3 Goehring %26 Rozencwajg Market Commentary.pdf

Introduction
Where Has Shale Productivity Gone?
Record Oil Deficits Are Here
Q3 2020 Natural Resource Market Commentary Will Gold Take A Breather?
The Gold-Oil Ratio Revisited (Part Three)
On the Verge of a Commodity Cycle

'Leigh and I have over 45 years of experience researching and investing in almost every natural resource market...We believe that the roadmap investors have used for the last 10 years is now obsolete. The recent years of benign commodity prices is ending and going forward we will have to contend with rising prices. Inflation is coming back – something few investors are prepared for.'

 

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

It is ridiculous that their servers and others can't deal with a huge growth in visitors 

Supposedly?!.....always seems to happen to the Retail investors...strange that!

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Oh GOLLY boys & girls!

 

Looks like Mr Hunters "crystal ball prediction" is coming TRUE!

 

ALL we need NOW is for David Icke to CLAIM that the vaccine is 100% SAFE!

 

FFS, EVEN Rolls-Royce UP 90% !!! PAGING @MrXxxx

 

ANYONE bought RR last week's LOW at 69p ???

 

 

 

BET ya ALL feeling like ya in ...HEAVEN!

 

YES? Then CHECK out the video below featuring the STUNNING clogg beauty of yesterday Dominique Rijpma Van Hulst...

 

 

 

 

 

 

Here a little link for you @YRS :-)))

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W6XNpmxqst4

 

[MrXxxx]

3 hours ago, Junction25 said:

thanks very much 

Was thinking of BAT and imperial Brands as well ?

IMB appears to be the poor relation in comparison to BAT....

[Alifelessbinary]

18 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Supposedly?!.....always seems to happen to the Retail investors...strange that!

Every time there’s a big day on the markets this happens. You’d think that HL would have contingency plans to secure additional capacity, but they just let the bigger players have all the fun. To be fair you are much better off having your strategy set up over time p then trying to buy in a racing market like today.

I’ve learnt over the years that diversification is key, unless you want to make really big wins or loses! 

I'm fascinated to see how the oil markets react to Biden and whether he really will kill off the fracking supply. Like many on here I do think oil will be a core holding (mainly for the divis), but just in case Greta wins I’ve hedged with an multiple ESG holding which has raced  in the last 5 years (possible bubble).