Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

1 minute ago, Boon said:

Ha yeah. Still well down on BT, there will always be something that is ****.

FTSE closing in on 6300 now. Seems like it was only 2 weeks ago that 5500 would be breached. 

I wonder if the S&P will bounce on the open, it dropped back again yesterday.  I don't own any, but I have before for a while and it's my go-to index for seeing how David Hunter's forecast is doing 

[Hardhat]

Within 2% of being in profit on BP. Was 25% down last week, average buy price of 255p

Steep rally! Let's see how the next five years go 

[supernaut]

Was around 7k down last week now about 3k up overall.Bought both bp and shell at the lows and had a bit left to deploy if went lower.

Still down on bp and shell as a whole but not far from either being in the black. 

My biggest mistake was exiting rolls royce at a 1k loss when they announced the rights issue. 2days after I exited went through the roof. Already been through this rights issue with IAG and wasnt keen on throwing more money at RR 

[DoINeedOne]

Nice to recover losses and see some green but if these are longterm holds like @DurhamBorn said would be nice to buy more at the lows with dividends etc....

 

 

Price going up then you realise your not going be buying at them lows with the dividends 

[JMD]

1 hour ago, Barnsey said:

Anyone else getting a little twitchy about how fast their share holdings are going up, keep telling myself not to take profits already. Just have this niggling feeling we're going to get some big setback on the virus front, current inclination is the mutated Danish mink version being detected elsewhere.

Yes, all seems a little too neat and tidy doesn't it? An epidemiologist on the news last night said it was highly unusual to release any results during an ongoing trial of the type Pfizer are currently undertaking, because any news/discussions will affect the result (double-blinds, etc). But already we are being told that the potential new drug will need special -70c fridges for storage in the gp surgeries. And then i hear that the married couple who own BioNTech - they did the r&d for Pfizer - are now in top 100 richest Germans.

Is this story hype ...to help create the meltup? I notice the SP500 seems to be having trouble breaking out above the 3600 level (its 3rd attempt in 3-months), maybe this will just be another damp squib.  

 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

I've been reading this thread for years now. Thanks obviously to DB and everyone else. I imagine DB to have that air of calm serenity that some religious leaders have. He has seen the future because it is written (in the maths). The day to day fluctuations are of little consequence when the destination is fixed.

I don't have that advantage as I don't have the same depth of knowledge. However, this thread will likely change my life for the better. My capital is small compared to many of you but I am now saving more. I now have the confidence to take greater control long term. I haven't checked my pension this week but it will be up substantially. I have no intention of selling anything short term, except HZM if it takes off like a lear jet!

I note that the pound is rising against the dollar. Do we see this as something likely to continue up to and beyond any crash next year? I want to increase foreign holdings but am firmly in the camp of buying low to hold. Like others here I want low prices and high dividends.

[supernaut]

I feel happier this week than last. Psychologically dont want to go back in the red. Even with knowing the reflation play the whole thread is based around and why I kept buying in. 

Funny thing the mind, having part of my mind wanting lower lows to buy in more and the other part not liking all the red is interesting to work through. 

[DoINeedOne]

#Gazprom will sell spot natural gas to Turkish gas market for the first time since 1986. as the replies mention

[sancho panza]

23 hours ago, Junction25 said:

can anybody recommend shares which have would give me dividend and are fairly safe companies? 

I'd go over the thread for the last few months and you'll see the same names mentioned.Asking for recommendations is tough because we're not insured to give financial advice.

There are no safe companies.There aren't even that many safe bonds either imho.If you want safety then cash is the place

[stoobs]

On 08/11/2020 at 09:38, DurhamBorn said:

BT still has a huge research facility at Adastral Park,an asset most people dont even know about,but vital.

https://atadastral.co.uk/

I went to BT Martlesham (Adastral) for product testing around 15 years ago.

It was the first time I'd seen engineers with such little motivation since the grand old days of cost-plus defence companies.

I was in a windowless lab each day, and saw the usual occupants scuttle in around 10am, go off and hide in one of the adjoining rooms until lunch. Then they'd reappear for a couple of hours in the afternoon and head home around 3pm.

At the time I assumed they were just staying out of the way so no-one noticed they existed and gave them something to do. Biding their last decade or so before early retirement.

Here's hoping it's a bit more productive these days! 

[sancho panza]

15 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

IMB appears to be the poor relation in comparison to BAT....

Obviosuyl coma scale scores come with a warning that they're best suited to spraying and praying, are historically based on the last full year and aren't deep dives into the accounts.

Nevertheless,I think you're buying a lot risk with IMB's balance sheet when others are similarly discounted to the wider market...

dyor natch

Company  Ch Inc BS CF Sect SCS JAPAY 4 4 3 5 4 20 BATS 3 4 3 5 4 19 IMB 3 4 1 5 4 17 ALTRIA 2 2 1 4 4 13 PM 2 4 1 4 4 15 KT&G 2 4 5 4 4 19 ITC 2 3 5 3 4 17 Gudang Garam 2 5 4 4 4 19

[NogintheNog]

1 hour ago, supernaut said:

I feel happier this week than last. Psychologically dont want to go back in the red. Even with knowing the reflation play the whole thread is based around and why I kept buying in. 

Funny thing the mind, having part of my mind wanting lower lows to buy in more and the other part not liking all the red is interesting to work through. 

Greed v FOMO!
What you need to get past that feeling is to own a holding that has run through a cycle. I bought NEM many years ago at $48, and watched as it cycled up before dropping back down past my buy in and into the twenties! I did luckily buy more at lower prices and reduced dividends, along with other miners plus various other stuff over the years.
Newmont is now one of my star performers, whereas some of my other ex star equities (banks, oil, transports) are now the dogs. Luckily I must have some semblance of balance as I'm holding my own against real painful drops in net worth, and I'm happy to play long on this cycle.

The most important thing to my mind is to use your tax shelters! Especially if you are under 55. It would be very naive to think that UK plc will just print all the future wealth distributions.

We are lucky to have some excellent balance against the Mainstream Media on here, so thanks to DB, CP, Harley, SP, Errol etc, etc. Nothing on here comes with a guarantee but hopefully we'll be able to navigate the choppy waters as individuals.

1 hour ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

I want to increase foreign holdings but am firmly in the camp of buying low to hold. Like others here I want low prices and high dividends.

I agree Yadda. As you are aware high yields are normally a sign that a company is failing to make 1+2=3. Sometimes that's self inflicted (C?A), sometimes it's unforeseen like Covid and the Oil stocks. But this turmoil has probably thrown up some life changing oportunities for the brave!

[sancho panza]

14 hours ago, JMD said:

SP, are you aware of any good potential US telcos? Your list above contains some US ones but I have looked into them further and none jump out to me as a 'buy'. I do own AT&T, but the US market has many small players so there should be some other good ones. Or perhaps the big global companies like Vodafone give better US exposure than trying to pick from the smaller US ones.                                                                            The only US ones I have found so far are either unprofitable/very high debt/very regional, all factors which turn me off wanting to own them. However, I assume there are no US national players ever since the breakup of their telecoms sector in the 70's?

I havenm't been through them in a while.From memory AT&T was the only one to get 17+ on the SCS scores.I wouldn't buy it on the same basis as @Castlevania but also if I wanted dollar exposure we have a lot of oilies and goldies.

With telecoms,ideally I'd like to use it to hedge far eastern and emerging markets in case they outgrow the West-highly likely.

Ergo,we'll have a deep dive into the cross holdings wehn we start moving above 3% into telcoms.When I did have a look,I was very happy with BT's prospects at £1 and Vod too.Beyond them then staid old perfomers like Telstra and Singtel,.

The main European ones are deep in the hole in mature markets,so I think I'd have some small palys in the riskier end eg Tel italia(tit for short),and also some exposure to africa eg MTN/Airtel,far east eg KT,Nippon,TLK.

Sing tel and the jaoanese/SK ones may be the best way to gain exposure to EM countries like Vietnam etc.

Decl:long BT/Vod

[sancho panza]

8 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

If i had done a rubber band list on oilies Repsol would of been top of the list.Hated sector,hated home country etc etc.We might see a day late in the cycle where companies like Repsol put on todays price/market cap in a few days.

Lots more volatility is likely,but its still nice to see those funds all selling just before the big jump in the sector.

 

It's eye watering watching these run ups.I don't think we'll see £2 BP/£9 Shell. again in my lifetime.What a difference a few days makes.

I have a few quid left from our Goldies sales in Sept that's going into oil,I think I'm going to wait until the end of the week as WTI seems reticent to follow them higher.

Being interesting to get @Cattle Prodview on the price moves in the big oilies versus the rather understated move higher in the underlying.To me it looks like they were oversold,but at the bottom these whipsaws are vicious.Could be short covering-although why you'd short a stock with a 6% quarterly divi I don't know.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

5 minutes ago, NogintheNog said:

I agree Yadda. As you are aware high yields are normally a sign that a company is failing to make 1+2=3. Sometimes that's self inflicted (C?A), sometimes it's unforeseen like Covid and the Oil stocks. But this turmoil has probably thrown up some life changing oportunities for the brave!

High yields are only sustainable, relative to the broad market and inflation, if risk is mispriced. I buy into the theories here, especially regarding oil, that risk is overstated for many businesses. In fact there is opportunity for increasing profit. I just want the market to be wrong for longer than is likely. Greed!

That said lots of shares still very cheap even following the rebound.

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Futures markets catching up with physical:

Which is it tho driving these moves?Supply or demand?both?

Either way we could see an 2008 style spike in oil prices in the new year with all the catching up that's going to get done.
I stop short of using the phrase 'melt up' which I'm not qulified to use.

[sancho panza]

2 hours ago, JMD said:

Yes, all seems a little too neat and tidy doesn't it? An epidemiologist on the news last night said it was highly unusual

Is this story hype ...to help create the meltup? I notice the SP500 seems to be having trouble breaking out above the 3600 level (its 3rd attempt in 3-months), maybe this will just be another damp squib.  

 

Which story?Covid or the cure?

It's possible people should be far more scared of cancer than covid.Especially now GP's are hard to see and diagnostic/treament clinics are seeing less people.

Sorry if I seem callous,but the data is the data.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-54433305

The average age at death for those who died with Covid-19 in Scotland was 79 for men and 84 for women. Elsewhere in the NRS report it showed that life expectancy in Scotland is 77.1 for males and 81.1 for females.

The report says the age profile of those dying with Covid was significantly older than that for deaths in general.

More than three quarters (77%) of all those who died were aged 75 or over and 43% were aged 85 or over.

This compared with overall deaths in 2019 where 63% were aged 75 or over and 33% were aged 85 or over.

 

 

Cancer mortality by age

https://www.cancerresearchuk.org/health-professional/cancer-statistics/mortality/age

 

[janch]

6 hours ago, Paulie said:

Anyone aware of  other suitable IT's or ETF's to aid in diversification to supplement oilies - just in case the Thunberg virus spreads itself? Also I wonder

I have some INRG (iShares Global Clean Energy UCITS ETF) and also IEM (Impax Environmental Markets investment trust) both of which have done quite well up to now. 

I believe in the reflation hypothesis and it does seem to now be in motion but I also saw how it's fashionable to invest in ESG/green things so decided to go in this direction as well.  (I won't be able to kick the bucket before I've sold all my tobacco and oil companies as my kids will be very upset when they log on to my ISA account after I've gone and see what I've got in there)

I agree it'll be interesting to see if they hold up if/when the BK hits.

PS I forgot about the clean energy investing thread in the basement.  I will add to it later.

[DurhamBorn]

Look at BT leading the FTSE  Telcos,oilies and fags.Hopefully they all go back down so we can compound the divis in at lower prices,this sector rotation is happening far too quickly.Massive amounts of liquidity in the pipes though.Into the financial system first then into the real economy.It will be interesting to see if a bug kahuna takes everything back down in the short term or not.

[Loki]

20 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

One of the FT headlines:

Hargreaves Lansdown suffers system outage amid record trading volumes

Quote

Thank you for getting in touch, I’m sorry to hear of the issues you’ve encountered.

Over the past couple of days we’ve seen extraordinary market activity here and across the world. This has meant record highs of website and app activity, and unfortunately we are aware of some technical issues. We’re disappointed this happened and we’re working hard to put things right.

The online traffic we saw slowed down the performance of the website, affected live share prices and the login service. This of course has created increase contact volumes to our helpdesk and stockbrokers. I’m sorry if you’ve experienced longer than expected times to speak to us. We’ve brought former helpdesk colleagues back from other parts of the business to help out to ensure we’re responding to your calls and emails as quickly as we possibly can do.

We do appreciate your patience and understanding while we continue to work on resolving this issue.

If you have any further queries, please get back to me.

"No money back, no guarantee"

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Look at BT leading the FTSE  Telcos,oilies and fags.Hopefully they all go back down so we can compound the divis in at lower prices,this sector rotation is happening far too quickly.Massive amounts of liquidity in the pipes though.Into the financial system first then into the real economy.It will be interesting to see if a bug kahuna takes everything back down in the short term or not.

Cheers for everything durhamborn, sincerely 

Not sure if it's poor form to post portfolios, but it's only my SIPP from a pension I didn't even know I had and I already posted it was £5k

The fund choices were of course inspired by this thread and your work. 

[MrXxxx]

6 hours ago, Loki said:

I don't understand why the DXY is spiking.  I'm not worried just curious if anyone knows the mechanics behind it

@Barnsey I'm not going to change anything, just yet, if that helps

I will sell the day before @YRS buys! :-)))

[Loki]

1 minute ago, MrXxxx said:

I will sell the day before @YRS buys! :-)))

Sorry mate that is the intellectual property of Lokitech Financial Services PLC.

[MrXxxx]

4 hours ago, supernaut said:

Was around 7k down last week now about 3k up overall.Bought both bp and shell at the lows and had a bit left to deploy if went lower.

Still down on bp and shell as a whole but not far from either being in the black. 

My biggest mistake was exiting rolls royce at a 1k loss when they announced the rights issue. 2days after I exited went through the roof. Already been through this rights issue with IAG and wasnt keen on throwing more money at RR 

Different 'beasts' though...although I am sure you dont want to hear that now! :-)))

[UnconventionalWisdom]

19 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

.It will be interesting to see if a bug kahuna takes everything back down in the short term or not.

Are you confident we'll have the big kahuna? In the early days of the original thread you spoke about the possibility of having reflation take off without a big setback. 

I believe a sharp shock will happen but i am cautious to still invest in case they manage to quickly start the industrial cycle going. In that scenario, i would imagine a slow increase in reflation stocks and a slow decline in FAANGS, Tesla etc.