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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I presume you do not have children yet?

Fair point though, in the long term we are all dead.

I do have kids. They'll make their own way.

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China's oil demand is now going to be year-on-year growth to 14.8 million b/d, in spite of Coronovirus.

But, on to Hydrogen, another use for oil

Mitsubishi Power, part of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Group, is developing Hydrogen storage and power technology

"If you want to store electricity for an hour or four hours, lithium-ion batteries are by far the better solution," he said. "But if you want to store electric power for eight hours, 24 hours, a week, month or season, batteries will be prohibitively expensive and hydrogen will be dramatically less expensive," President and CEO Paul Browning

"Today hydrogen is a storage technology, but in the future, it can become an alternative fuel, though cost reductions will be required."

"Browning compared wind power turbine technology and prices in 2008 to where they are today, along with solar PV prices in 2012 and today, and battery storage costs in 2012 compared with today.

"That's exactly where hydrogen is right now today," he said. "If you are looking backwards it looks expensive and dangerous. But if you are looking forward you can see we are on the cusp of massive cost reduction and an industry that's going to really take off."

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/coal/111320-hydrogen-first-used-for-energy-storage-then-wider-applications-mitsubishi-power

 

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Opec+ is now considering deeper cuts to oil production to maintain oil prices.

Saudis and the rest are going to find out how quickly their states can turn into violent chaos if they don't maintain cuts or deepen them to raise oil prices.

Good in one way for us, as the oil price will rise quickly in the new year. But, then there is the probabaility of a price spike causing an economic bust, then stock market bust.

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14 minutes ago, arrow said:

China's oil demand is now going to be year-on-year growth to 14.8 million b/d, in spite of Coronovirus.

But, on to Hydrogen, another use for oil

Mitsubishi Power, part of Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Group, is developing Hydrogen storage and power technology

"If you want to store electricity for an hour or four hours, lithium-ion batteries are by far the better solution," he said. "But if you want to store electric power for eight hours, 24 hours, a week, month or season, batteries will be prohibitively expensive and hydrogen will be dramatically less expensive," President and CEO Paul Browning

"Today hydrogen is a storage technology, but in the future, it can become an alternative fuel, though cost reductions will be required."

"Browning compared wind power turbine technology and prices in 2008 to where they are today, along with solar PV prices in 2012 and today, and battery storage costs in 2012 compared with today.

"That's exactly where hydrogen is right now today," he said. "If you are looking backwards it looks expensive and dangerous. But if you are looking forward you can see we are on the cusp of massive cost reduction and an industry that's going to really take off."

https://www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-insights/latest-news/coal/111320-hydrogen-first-used-for-energy-storage-then-wider-applications-mitsubishi-power

 

Yes hydrogen will be the big store of energy and it might be blue hydrogen yet.However even if cars go EV in the east the resulting explosion in electric use will see massive price increases in gas.

The UK is very well placed for green energy due to wind etc,other countries arent.The cycle will see energy use exlode,the only worry we have is do we get taken down in a big crash before that happens.

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6 hours ago, arrow said:

So, oil is dead, everyone is going to be driving an electric car and the sjw pension funds and politicians are right in disinvesting from oil companies.

But, did they forget to tell China? Or did they believe the PR nonsense put out by China that China was going green?

Admittedly, US focused, but still gives facts/figures the msm omits.

"In its annual International Outlook Report last year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that between 2018 and 2050, consumption of liquid fuels will jump by 22 percent in Asia"

"Increasing exports to India, which imports more than 80 percent of its oil, in addition to being exceptionally lucrative for U.S. energy firms (the EIA estimates India will consume more energy than the United States by 2040), would serve as a means to court the world’s largest democracy amidst its increasing hostilities with China, which in recent months have grown hot."

As for China,
"The largest facet of BRI (Belt and Road Initiative) is energy, and the associated projects are far-reaching, unprecedented, and dirty. While Xi has positioned himself to be a global leader on renewables within the People’s Republic, his government is exporting energy models that emphasize high-emissions fuels, including and especially coal—by far the worst CO2 emitter of any major fuel type."

https://nationalinterest.org/feature/get-ready-energy-export-battle-china-171843?fbclid=IwAR3WQMLj0ejYcqCE1k1Vbv9sxUqaWS7iubKbF2LjmDYgivO0YouJFQZeCOw

 

1605308190-o_1en1t61qc17nt1q051rkl1m7h1e868.jpg

The next wars won't be fought over windfarms, they'll be fought over gas and oil.

 

I don't think the planet's going to last that long, FOOD should run out before oil does..

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2 hours ago, macca said:

I don't think the planet's going to last that long, FOOD should run out before oil does..

Food will be fine,just needs more potash.Food production will be a big winner in the cycle,lots of new ways of growing etc,but hard to play outside of the inputs.

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58 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Food will be fine,just needs more potash.Food production will be a big winner in the cycle,lots of new ways of growing etc,but hard to play outside of the inputs.

If UK ever starts growing kelp in any kind of quantity, I'll be front of the queue - I'll take kelp over kale any day of the week.

Related investment opportunity: goitre clinics.

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8 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Saudi is the one to watch, they have let their population explode with nothing to support it other than sand, dates and oil. UAE is much richer relative to its population, and more diversified. There are large swaths of Saudi society who aren't very rich, and have to sit in shitholes watching their 20,000 princes flying their supercars to London to cruise in Knightsbridge. The last time they got restless during the Arab Spring the king bought them off with grants etc. They need more money, a lot more.

Edit: I just looked it up to check my assumptions. They have 10x their population since oil money really started flowing in the 50s from 3.5m to 35m. Sooo .... what are those extra 31.5m people going to do once the oil runs out? They have one shot left to bank some proper cash in the next cycle into their sov fund, but I bet they'll just draw it down again like they always do without diversifying. 

I'd suggest covering some of their desert wasteland with solar and crack hydrogen with it, but that would probably offend the nomads. Could be very very messy.

Of that 35m pop, how many Saudis do you think work in private sector employment?

1.5m. Its a disaster waiting to happen. And the current idiot in charge decided to start a price war with Russia during the biggest demand shock in history. 

Saudis denied the story earlier this year, but I wonder if they got "caught" testing the water for a margin loan and therefore decided to park it for a bit? - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-17/saudi-pif-denies-plan-for-margin-loan-backed-by-softbank-fund

I mean, margin loan collateralised on tech bubble securities - what could go wrong?

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https://time.com/collection/great-reset/5900739/fix-economy-by-2023/
 

At least we have a roadmap supplied nicely by Time magazine. They also called the election and corresponding vaccine back in October it seems.

Death of shale, oil check, Green energy, hydrogen check, Gold backed bailouts, PMs check, Global drought, potash check.

Think I’m all good in my portfolio. Think if I do make it through the riots and famine then it may be seized off me however for ‘redistribution’ anyway however.

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geordie_lurch

Vodafone 3% up this morning. The following from the Evening Standard here:

Quote
VODAFONE today said demand for its services has never been higher thanks to the necessity of reliable internet connectivity, but admitted it is taking a hit from the lack of international travel.
 

The telecom giant saw revenue slip slightly in the half year to e21.4 billion (£19.2 billion) but it moved back into the black with a profit of e1.5 billion, compared to an e1.9 billion loss last time.

The dividend is held 4.5 cents a share, a relief to hard pressed investors.

The following from CMC Markets here might be more informative though...

Quote

Vodafone half-year results beat expectation

This appears to have been borne out by today’s first-half numbers which saw Q2 organic service revenue decline 0.4%, much better than the -2.3% which was expected. Pre-tax profits for the first half came in at just over €2bn, a much-needed improvement on last year when the company wrote down the value of its Indian business. First-half revenues saw a modest decline of 2.3% to €21.43bn, a decent performance despite the recent sale of its New Zealand business.

This better-than-expected performance helped push H1 earnings up above €7bn, and in the process has seen management nudge up its full-year guidance to between €14.4bn to €14.6bn for its earnings outlook. The board declared an interim dividend of 4.5c a share in line with last year.

The main focus for investors going forward is the need to address the company’s cash flow issues, and invest in 5G over the next few years, and to that end the main focus is next year's potential IPO of the company’s Vantage Towers business. In the summer, Vodafone announced the completion of the deal to create Europe’s largest towers portfolio with Italy’s TIM, which yielded an immediate £2.1bn. The intention is to create a business that can help it monetise its 61,700 Europe-wide towers infrastructure.

 

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Yadda yadda yadda
2 hours ago, Sideysid said:

https://time.com/collection/great-reset/5900739/fix-economy-by-2023/
 

At least we have a roadmap supplied nicely by Time magazine. They also called the election and corresponding vaccine back in October it seems.

Death of shale, oil check, Green energy, hydrogen check, Gold backed bailouts, PMs check, Global drought, potash check.

Think I’m all good in my portfolio. Think if I do make it through the riots and famine then it may be seized off me however for ‘redistribution’ anyway however.

"In late 2020, this ambitious recovery plan helped the euro stabilize and ushered in a new European renaissance, with citizens helping to set the agenda. The European leadership used challenge-oriented policies to create 100 carbon-neutral cities across the Continent. This approach led to a resurgence of new energy-efficient buildings; revamped public transport designed to be sustainable, accessible and free; and an artistic revival in public squares, with artists and designers rethinking city life with citizenship and civic life at its heart."

I thought the BBC was naked propaganda until I read that. The artistic revival in locked down public squares is particularly egregious.

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
20 hours ago, Option5 said:

With water you can't even shop around, it's location dependant.

 
Pull your socks UP!:Old: :D
 
START saving all ya water with water storage butts, i even have an overflow pipe from the water butt going to a HUGE plastic dustbin!:o
 
BTW, All my water storage containers I got FREE from scavenging in skips !
 
I'm ONLY flushing the toilet with buckets of rain water now!xD
 
ALSO buy the water companies for their lovely DIVIDENDS ...when their share prices TANK in the up and coming BIG KAHUNA CRASH!   :Jumping:
 
EDIT: Just saw this in the news for us Stagecoach share holders...
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19 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I couldn't read that but they were the biggest investors in that lunatics' Vision Fund, reportedly $45bn of the $98bn. So while less than 10% of your population works in productive jobs, you decide to go and fund WeWork. You couldn't make it up.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Water_supply_and_sanitation_in_Saudi_Arabia

Once the oil starts drying up they are in for a very bad time, good luck desalinating enough water for the population with no cheap energy.  At least water is the one thing the UK isn't short of!

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5 hours ago, Popuplights said:

Good call. I love the F355. As per my username.

Was my favourite car growing up. I paid less for the first one than the original owner of my boring ten year old my diesel Golf paid when it was new. I don't think Ferraris of that era are going anywhere near new Golf money ever again.

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11 minutes ago, AWW said:

Was my favourite car growing up. I paid less for the first one than the original owner of my boring ten year old my diesel Golf paid when it was new. I don't think Ferraris of that era are going anywhere near new Golf money ever again.

I think you are right. My BIL, who is an utter cock bought 2 Maseratis, new, from Meridian Modena in Lyndhurst. Lost big bucks on both of them . And there were 355s for sale in the showroom at the same time. He could have at least preserved his money on the Fezzas.

What colours you got? Rosso red over Crema leather?? The classic spec.

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6 minutes ago, Craig said:

Sorry gents, but there's only one Ferrari which is fit to grace these hallowed pages, and it's this one:

image.jpeg.bb97a031736c366e870a7e875bd987e8.jpeg

Is that the fabled pizza oven?

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17 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I thought it was a reference to a Mazda MX5 mk1.

It is. But I couldn't afford a Ferrari, so I got the cheapest car with popuplights!!

 

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29 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

It is. But I couldn't afford a Ferrari, so I got the cheapest car with popuplights!!

 

Had 2 Ferraris, 246GT in 1977 which I loved but couldn't afford to keep and a 355GTB in 2007 which I could afford to keep but didn't love.

 

 

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I know its a Fourth Turning podcast, and everyone here probably knows the generational-cycle-theory backward? 

But in this podcast Neil Howe attempts to give a interesting contemporary fit of his ideas (perhaps he is doing this to help start ramping his forthcoming 2022 book; which im sure will be worth reading). eg. it was recorded couple months back, and Howe seems to accurately call the Biden win. Also speaks about how the young are embracing authoritarian governments, how institutions are failing... Probably quiet scary if you are not familiar with the theory. But also helps at least remind me of the importance of trying to keep at least some wealth outside of the 'normal financial channels'.

Anyway, interview is good, and well worth the 1hr listen. 

 

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