Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

No-one "wants" to be driving the M25 at 8am 

[Sasquatch]

6 minutes ago, Loki said:

No-one "wants" to be driving the M25 at 8am 

From 'Good Omens'

Many phenomena - wars, plagues, sudden audits - have been advanced as evidence for the hidden hand of Satan in the affairs of Man, but whenever students of demonology get together the M25 London orbital motorway is generally agreed to be among the top contenders for Exhibit A.

[The Idiocrat]

25 minutes ago, AWW said:

Roads aren't cost-free one you've built them.

It's already well proven in studies done before all the green crap came along that drivers don't cover anywhere near the costs of all the externalities. Is it really fair that people who can afford newer cars pay less VED and fuel duty than owners of older cars? That drivers rat running through residential streets to take kids half a mile to school pay the same as those using the motorways in the dead of night?

I'd like to sort out the welfare bill as well, but it's not going to happen.

...and I say that as someone who loves cars and driving. I just don't think they're a great way to get around cities.

There’s already heavy tax on fuel. So those night time motorway drivers are already paying per mile into the government’s coffers. Doesn’t apply to electric cars of course, so that’s why the government will try to move the goal posts, just to keep up their revenues from fuel duty, no other reason.

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, Loki said:

One of my old dog shares

 

Brucie! Got a decent chunk of these. Up 44% on them right now!

[AWW]

1 hour ago, kibuc said:

Is it fair that people who drink and smoke pay the same NI as I do? Do such cateogries as "fair" and "unfair" even apply here?

Depends what you think NI pays for. Both those activities are heavily taxed and I would wager that someone who smokes 40 a day or drinks heavily will cost a lot less in state pension than someone who doesn't.

We should probably move this discussion to a new thread.

[Craig]

1 hour ago, The Idiocrat said:

There’s already heavy tax on fuel. So those night time motorway drivers are already paying per mile into the government’s coffers. Doesn’t apply to electric cars of course, so that’s why the government will try to move the goal posts, just to keep up their revenues from fuel duty, no other reason.

Suspect the electric car is a classic bait and switch. Get everyone in on the promise of cheap motoring, then crank up the taxes on electricity.

Thiugh to be fair, that would still be a more progressive tax than road tolls or VED. 

[AWW]

1 hour ago, The Idiocrat said:

There’s already heavy tax on fuel. So those night time motorway drivers are already paying per mile into the government’s coffers. Doesn’t apply to electric cars of course, so that’s why the government will try to move the goal posts, just to keep up their revenues from fuel duty, no other reason.

Yeah but my point is that they're paying the same to drive on an empty motorway in the Highlands as someone driving around the north circ in rush hour, despite very different demand.

[Noallegiance]

HZMs come alive too. Up 122% for me right now. All four small hydrogen players I hold are boosting:

AFC up 44%

Ceres up 82%

ITM Power up 74%

Powerhouse up 97%

Overall portfolio is only up 3.5% but it's been dragged down with unlucky timing of transport, telcos and oil buys.

So far, this novice is happy.

Massive thanks to all here

 I've learned so much.

[NogintheNog]

29 minutes ago, Craig said:

Suspect the electric car is a classic bait and switch. Get everyone in on the promise of cheap motoring, then crank up the taxes on electricity.

Thiugh to be fair, that would still be a more progressive tax than road tolls or VED. 

This is exactly what I started thinking, and actually I think is the 'fairest' option, even if I don't like taxes. (Certainly a lot fairer than the notion of track and toll!) I'm sure also that the current 'emissions' tax will translate to a road maintenance tax as well.

As the percentage of electric/hydrogen cars increases, the government pulls that back by an increase taxes on electricity. I use approx 100KWhr per month without charging an electric car. Add in a Nissan Leaf and I suspect that would easily be 200KWhr. Simples!

I'll stick to the MX5 mk1 with pop up headlights, and I'll cut my own hair!

[JMD]

10 hours ago, sancho panza said:

Been doing some reflecting on the year so far and looking back,I really wish we'd built a decent positon in copper whilst the market was low in March/April.

I bought some Freeport calls but that was about it.

Can't believe I couldn't find some of the oilies money to shuffle over.Greed/value trap/tunnel vision..................

Has anyone any experience or names that I shud keep my eye for the bottom of the crunch?

Or any good websites/blogs where I can read up on the sector?

SP, I've been thinking the same about the copper miners. I was late into them and have been picking over the copper 'filings'(!?) ever since. I will post what I ended up buying later, it might be of interest (or it might just amuse some!!). But your idea of a watchlist of what copper miners that may become cheap if/when we get a market correction is a good idea... second bite en all.

[AWW]

Ineos investing 150m in a plant in Hull.

[Sasquatch]

12 months ago I didn't own a single share, now I am up to my neck in stocks! Thanks to all contributing to this thread, especially @DurhamBorn for starting it in the first place. It's been a fascinating year or so. And when I say fascinating, I really mean one part illuminating, one part fascinating, one part terrifying.

We are now invested in stocks in four separate platforms - my HL isa, Mrs S's isa, our business F&S account, and my Sipp. We have only bought during the period and not sold or top sliced any shares yet. I know this is a relatively 'dumb' approach and I should probably think a bit harder about this with perhaps one eye on a potential BK event. However, as people have said it's impossible to call the top or bottom of any market. Just done my first proper audit and across the 4 platforms we are invested as follows:

PMs/Minerals = 32% (50 stocks)

Oil = 24% (7)

Telecoms = 9% (3)

Potash = 5% (5)

Tobacco = 4% (2)

Chemicals = 3% (2)

Energy (including the share that shall not be named) = 3% (3)

Nickel (Horizonte, aka the Lear Jet fund) = 2%

Uranium = 1.5% (3)

Defence = 1% (2)

Oil Shipping = 0.5% (2)

Transportation = 0.5% (1)

Crypto mining = 0.5% (1)

Cash = 14%

I keep looking at oil and it looks like a sure bet to me this decade. I'm wondering whether to move more of our holding cash into this. Going to be some shocked faces in the future when the price of heating oil/petrol at the pump goes up.

Perhaps a bit heavy in PMs but they have done very well so far. I bought quite a few penny stocks and a few of these could go to the moon or into the ditch. Time will tell.

Worst buy? £1,000 in Chesapeake. It was up 15% at one point, then down, down, down, dead. It's still listed in my HL isa and apparently worth £10! I should print out the statement and put in the wall as a reminder (I didn't realise they were a shale oil producer...)

Best buy so far? Eurasia Mining. Get in.

As of today, the overall position is 12% up. Quite happy with this as I have sprayed and prayed at times, didn't buy in the March dip (), got timing wrong with some of the early buys into oil, telecoms etc.

If the site can keep going through the difficult years ahead, it will be very interesting to see where we all end up towards the end of the decade. 

This is possibly the best single forum thread on the planet.

 

 

[Popuplights]

41 minutes ago, Sasquatch said:

Nickel (Horizonte, aka the Lear Jet fund) = 2%

You are never gonna get your Wings with that piss poor allocation......🤣🤣

[Castlevania]

I was under the impression that you in the Lear Jet crew were all balls deep in HZM. 

[sancho panza]

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think their call on the dollar is a bit too low.I think between 83 and 85 is a likely area to consolidate.If we dont get another big kahuna next year then 78 would come in play.I suspect they are starting to work out the macro.We saw the dollar position over a year ago ,im available if any big institution wants to hire me  On copper i managed to get a lot of BHP below £10 back in the sell off,and Harmony Gold have a fantastic copper project.Yamana Gold also has copper prospects.COPX is the fund i used to use for exposure so a run through those companies.

 

Like your point about the BK next year.Whislt I'm in the frame of mind to sell APr/Jul,I think we have to follow the data and the likely flowing stimulus which could go on longer than we anticiapte.

Cheers for the heads up on COPX,I'll have a dig through,run some coma scale scores.They'll likely be below the 17 level due to the fact that a lot of the charts will be low scoring.However,as @JMD says,need to prep for the second bite.

7 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Should note on VODs results yesterday The CEO mentioned in the call he had been meeting governments and the EU etc and telling them ROCE was too low for shareholders to invest.Portugal tried to let in a new player on the cheap so VOD pulled a big investment.Big telcos are united on this now.We make more return or you can fuck off we aint investing shareholder capital.I exect we will see 100% gain on ROCE to at least 10% during the cycle.

I think we're getting a sea change in the dynamics here where all of a sudden it''s the govts that need th telco's rather than the other way around.Especially wiht all the work at home stuff making widepsread reliable broadband a necessity.

And as you say,that's going to be key going forwards with IR's meaning there'll be few new entrants.

[Hardhat]

7 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

I was under the impression that you in the Lear Jet crew were all balls deep in HZM. 

Sometimes it's my largest holding.

[sancho panza]

6 hours ago, Castlevania said:

That’s what I’d do if house prices were not quite so insanely priced with the added tweak of putting 10% of the house price into silver as an inflation hedge.

Agreed,I think a stash of silver/gold will do nicely versus housing.3 bed semi in Leicester costs £300k.....quite simply I have better things to do with our money,that leaves us far more options such as living abroad off divis'.

If houese were cheaper I'd msot likely buy one though but my bite point is a 7% gross yield I think.

6 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Antofagasta as a pure play on copper

35 pence in 1999..........................................................

[sancho panza]

5 hours ago, kibuc said:

Don't know how it's "fair", it's a public road and I'm already paying my fucking taxes am I not? There's no reasoning behind it other than "we ran out of dough and this is the easiest way to get some more". How about cutting on £100bn welfare spending instead.

I wouldn't bother joing the Tories or the Labour party if I were you K.

[Popuplights]

9 minutes ago, Hardhat said:

Sometimes it's my largest holding.

It is mine too.

[leonardratso]

yes, i have some £12.34 in the HZM also.... its all go at the top of the market.

[nirvana]

Sod the massive gains I've been making 

the G3 Ferrari is on special offer!!!! 

https://www.amazon.it/dp/B084PV85FH

PS pissed I didn't buy Royal Mail at the lows, look at the bastard go, chased by some rabid dogs by the looks of it 

[CVG]

My personal opinion is that if you bought everything mentioned in this thread, and then added a few personal picks too, that you'd be spread too thin for any of the picks to make a major difference to your overall portfolio. Instead I'm focused on around 24 stocks and then that's probably too many!

[Craig]

53 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Sod the massive gains I've been making 

the G3 Ferrari is on special offer!!!! 

https://www.amazon.it/dp/B084PV85FH

PS pissed I didn't buy Royal Mail at the lows, look at the bastard go, chased by some rabid dogs by the looks of it 

It's certainly a good price, although that appears to be an eco-friendly model.

Can't see any differences, but I'd make sure it's as powerful as the original! Screw the environment, I want crispy dough!

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Sod the massive gains I've been making 

the G3 Ferrari is on special offer!!!! 

https://www.amazon.it/dp/B084PV85FH

PS pissed I didn't buy Royal Mail at the lows, look at the bastard go, chased by some rabid dogs by the looks of it 

Thats a bargain for the Ferrari even if that green colour is a bit iffy  i got some RM right at the bottom and iv actually sold that ladder as im finally well up on the entire holding.Stop complaining,you filled your boots on the oilies at the lows.

Only really the transports and the Scottish share im bleeding heavy on now.Imperial blazing a trail as well today if i still smoked id be having a Lambert and Butler to celebrate.

 

[kibuc]

1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Sod the massive gains I've been making 

the G3 Ferrari is on special offer!!!! 

https://www.amazon.it/dp/B084PV85FH

PS pissed I didn't buy Royal Mail at the lows, look at the bastard go, chased by some rabid dogs by the looks of it 

EU plug = pain.