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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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For a Western 'insiders' view on China his channel is a real eye opener. I have followed his channel for few years and have been meaning to post a link. He is now leaving because things are changing for the worse there.

Really recommend visiting the site (link below), he has many short videos on culture and living/travelling there and his motorbike trips are awesome. His tours around the substandard building infrastructure show its not just Western propaganda. Please don't interpret the above video as mere 'sour grapes' because he is leaving, he gave it a good go, 10 years i believe, plus he originally came from South Africa so he knows a thing or two about crazy/repressive regimes (which ironically is why he left SA in first place). 

https://www.youtube.com/user/churchillcustoms/videos

 

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28 minutes ago, feed said:

As an ebay side hustle seller (toys mostly) the last few weeks have been insane, I literally can not list items fast enough.
Nov/Jan/Feb are always peak, as you'd expect, but in the 5~6 years i've been doing this, i've not seen anything like this before.  

Fellow eBay side hustler here (silver, vintage electronics). Same here. Stuff selling same day for ludicrous prices. A real seller's market. And another £1 FVF offer dropped into my inbox this morning. Time to list some more Brits.

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1 minute ago, Cattle Prod said:

The Scots are in for some shock if they go independent. Ireland had an economic depression for decades after independence, mainly cause by a trade war with Britian and protectionist policies... 40% public sector, with a £12bn annual stipend from London? It'll be an unmitigated disaster, they need to straighten out their economy first. Sorry if off topic, but perhaps this is the kind of economic magical realism we should be watching for.

Everyone western nation is bust, but some are more bust than others...

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23 minutes ago, Erewhon888 said:

Thanks to whoever mentioned Nio first here. 

 

niooneyr.png

EV stocks seem to be increasing rapidly. 

Seems odd that none of the ice manufacturers have really made a dent in the market

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StrugglingMillennial
45 minutes ago, Erewhon888 said:

Thanks to whoever mentioned Nio first here. 

 

niooneyr.png

I wish i had seen that recommendation 😂

Thats some climb isn't it 😳

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@Cattle Prod so you fancy my 2028 period for oil to go parabolic ;)

Iv done a a lot of work on gas lately,in fact pretty much the only work on macro iv done.I see a stunning set up.I know there is a lot of gas,but its not where it needs to be.If i run demand based on liquidity of currency and run it above that by 2% demand growth a year above trend i see a cross over around 2023.If Asia even starts to move to EV then demand grows even faster.Supply doesnt get near.There is a very good chance gas goes up by 1000%.I know that sounds crazy,but i see 500% as certain and a parabolic rise as a maybe.

Im temped to get into some smaller gas plays,but i think il just keep topping up Repsol and Shell into any pull backs.The MSM say oil/gas is dead.I see the biggest gas bull in history.One of the biggest oil bulls.

Lets see.

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10 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm really glad that is part of your analysis, it's very important. You're right on both counts, gas is not a true commodity, price varies widely around the world, even with LNG. When I'm looking at a gas project onshore I say "What's the local price? Can they get LNG in there?"

Very little of it is in Asia, (apart from Turkmenistan, as discussed). Indonesia has started to offer better prices for local gas, I wonder why...

Didnt Repsol find a massive field and is refusing to develop without better prices.Maybe that ties in.

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reformed nice guy

Having a look at http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk

Currently sitting at:

42% gas, 15% nuclear, 8% biomass aka trees, 25% wind, 2% hydro, 2% coal

Its not even cold yet!

If Boris wants lots more wind power then thats fine by me because the amount of energy they need to make them is good for my shares!!!

 

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35 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

If Boris wants lots more wind power then thats fine by me because the amount of energy they need to make them is good for my shares!!!

Now THAT is contrarian take! :Beer:

Out of reps but the above posts are all gold

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36 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Having a look at http://gridwatch.templar.co.uk

Currently sitting at:

42% gas, 15% nuclear, 8% biomass aka trees, 25% wind, 2% hydro, 2% coal

Its not even cold yet!

If Boris wants lots more wind power then thats fine by me because the amount of energy they need to make them is good for my shares!!!

 

Biomas aka DRAX B|

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Democorruptcy
2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

@Cattle Prod so you fancy my 2028 period for oil to go parabolic ;)

Iv done a a lot of work on gas lately,in fact pretty much the only work on macro iv done.I see a stunning set up.I know there is a lot of gas,but its not where it needs to be.If i run demand based on liquidity of currency and run it above that by 2% demand growth a year above trend i see a cross over around 2023.If Asia even starts to move to EV then demand grows even faster.Supply doesnt get near.There is a very good chance gas goes up by 1000%.I know that sounds crazy,but i see 500% as certain and a parabolic rise as a maybe.

Im temped to get into some smaller gas plays,but i think il just keep topping up Repsol and Shell into any pull backs.The MSM say oil/gas is dead.I see the biggest gas bull in history.One of the biggest oil bulls.

Lets see.

Article here about investing in gas, including a line-up of the usual suspects:
 

Quote

 

Notable gas stocks include:

  • oil majors like ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) and Royal Dutch Shell (NYSE:RDS.A)(NYSE:RDS.B), all of which have both oil and gas drilling operations,
  • independent oil and gas exploration and production companies like Antero Resources (NYSE:AR) and ConocoPhillips (NYSE:COP)
  • pipeline companies like Kinder Morgan (NYSE:KMI) and MLP Enterprise Products Partners (NYSE:EPD)
  • propane distributors like MLP Suburban Propane Partners (NYSE:SPH)
  • existing and would-be LNG exporters like Tellurian (NASDAQ:TELL) and NextDecade Energy (NASDAQ:NEXT)
  • Services companies like Schlumberger (NYSE:SLB) and Halliburton (NYSE:HAL) as well as providers of frac sand specifically for natural gas fracking 

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/12/15/how-to-invest-in-gas-stocks.aspx

 

 

 

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Here is Lyn Alden's latest newsletter which is very timely as it explains all about inflation from a macro perspective.  I find her articles pitched at the right level and easy to read and understand.  She also gives details of her investments and what she alters from month to month.  Her portfolio rises steadily.............(I wish mine did the same!) It's all from a US perspective but equally applicable here:

 

https://www.lynalden.com/november-2020-newsletter/

 

 

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1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Article here about investing in gas, including a line-up of the usual suspects:
 

 

 

Back in the day we used to write out a Christmas list for Santa - after studying the Great Universal catalogue for most of November.

Now...I just look at that list and it's the equivalent of a chemistry set, black n white telly and Acorn Electron rolled into one.

If only Santa would pop all of those into my virtual Hargreaves Lansdowne stocking !

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40 minutes ago, Heart's Ease said:

Back in the day we used to write out a Christmas list for Santa - after studying the Great Universal catalogue for most of November.

Now...I just look at that list and it's the equivalent of a chemistry set, black n white telly and Acorn Electron rolled into one.

If only Santa would pop all of those into my virtual Hargreaves Lansdowne stocking !

Saddo, that catalogue was brilliant for spotting nipples and the odd full bush!

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Yadda yadda yadda

Fascinating reading the gas and oil analysis.

I guess that is one reason they're looking to add hydrogen into the gas supply. I don't fancy paying 6-11 times as much for my heating. At that sort of price an electric boiler would be cheaper! Or it would be if gas didn't knock on to the electric price.

What with that and the expected 60:40 pension armageddon we'll be looking at pensioner poverty again. Brrr.

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13 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Curve starting flip as discussed. Physical market doesn't lie:

Screenshot_20201120-204747_Twitter.thumb.jpg.dc3f5de3e505f16274028ff2756cf9ef.jpg

Price has risen 30% in 3 weeks since my ~ $35 target The next move will be telling. I fancy another tree shake, but who knows. Maybe people will realise they need to buy the stuff.

 

Do you ever trade pure oil or just the oil companies?

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1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

Just decided to buy the whole sector Harley, they're much of a muchness though Ill favour some over others as we go forwards. .

There are some stark differences in the company financials to help sift through the O&G industries.

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Just now, Cattle Prod said:

I have some USO calls, just in case stocks lag. But recent moves suggest they may not. There is usually nasty contango in USO or any other pure oil derivative, and I like medium term, so decay is too much. You can't buy physical oil etf like you can silver or gold. Best to stick with big, quality stocks I think.

Thanks mate. No complaints with my RDSB, XOM, or REP so far 

Just need BP to wake up and realise the cool kids are leaving it behind

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