Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Green Devil]

3 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

Helicopter money for N. Ireland incoming....Stormont ministers have agreed in principal to give £200 to every household to spend in the local economy.

 

Are quite sure it's not only for those just on universal credit? 😂

I can't believe a UK gov would give free money to people that could actually be spent without some form of social selection! 

[leonardratso]

4 hours ago, Erewhon888 said:

Does anyone know of any more of these Chinese electric vehicle companies that have not already surged?

might want to look at ancillaries, for example ive been studiously paying into the ever losing BLINK charging, looked a right dog from the get go, havent looked at it for a about a week, lo - today took a look, +212% - shame i didnt bet the farm, but hey, easy come, easy go.

And to think i had XPEV at $19, mofo, looked a turkey, should have just gritted my teeth and held. ah well....

[DurhamBorn]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/cars/article-8974915/Sir-Jim-Ratcliffes-Grenadier-4X4-powered-HYDROGEN.html

Hyundai are also working with heavy vehicle engine companies.

 

[Heart's Ease]

Neat little thread of Economist 'Oil is Dead' covers - and then a lively article at the embedded link. Too much to cut n paste.

Worth reading even if to compare the two Vanguard funds (social Vs energy) 😳.

 

[Hardhat]

Oil doesn't seem dead this morning! Now in profit on all the oilies.

[Erewhon888]

9 hours ago, leonardratso said:

 ive been studiously paying into the ever losing BLINK charging,

Thanks. The comment stream on investing.com seems to expect a 20+ per cent decline "soon". Tempting to play with this and the others.

[Democorruptcy]

Re potential CGT changes this is one I haven't read before

Quote

If someone were to inherit an asset, and then sell it for a profit, the CGT they’d pay would be based on the price difference of the asset when they receive it, and when they sell it – rather than the price the deceased bought it for. This is likely to massively reduce the amount of CGT paid on the asset, and is known as CGT uplift. The OTS suggests that those who inherit assets that are exempt from IHT shouldn’t benefit from CGT uplift as well, as can be the case at the moment – and should instead pay CGT based on the price paid by the person who has died

Read more: https://www.which.co.uk/news/2020/11/four-major-capital-gains-tax-changes-the-chancellor-is-considering?

Looking at inherited property, that would be a big change if brought in?

 

 

[wherebee]

3 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Re potential CGT changes this is one I haven't read before

Looking at inherited property, that would be a big change if brought in?

 

 

again, completely fucks the middle classes whilst leaving the 1% untouched.  all their property is in family trusts where it never 'changes hands' after death.

[arrow]

18 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

And here is the breakdown of CPI to October in the US from the Bureau of labour statistics:

Energy, oil and gas in particular have been a major deflator on the CPI index this year so far, to the surprise of no one. What happens to CPI when energy goes up?

And the energy inputs into food production and supply mean food prices increasing

Then there's the increasing prices of imports from China. So clothes prices will increase

All these item costs are affected by the cost of energy. Our society and its products and services exist on affordable energy

[arrow]

16 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

Re potential CGT changes this is one I haven't read before

Looking at inherited property, that would be a big change if brought in?

 

 

It would and Ukgov is thinking of abolishing cgt allowance completely and instead taxing at your partiular tax rate

[Green Devil]

23 minutes ago, wherebee said:

again, completely fucks the middle classes whilst leaving the 1% untouched.  all their property is in family trusts where it never 'changes hands' after death.

 

9 minutes ago, arrow said:

It would and Ukgov is thinking of abolishing cgt allowance completely and instead taxing at your partiular tax rate

 

Its starting to look like this whole pandemic scam is just an excuse to print money and extort more tax from middle income England, while leaving the 1% with more and more.

[Noallegiance]

I think we should be mindful of DBs relentless silence when the discussion centres around opinion rather than fact.

[Chewing Grass]

Just logged on to internet baking and once again been confronted with a big full page splurge reminding me that the FSCS only covers £85K per banking group which I had to acknowledge to get rid of.

Makes me glad to just still be a debt monkey.

[wherebee]

21 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

I think we should be mindful of DBs relentless silence when the discussion centres around opinion rather than fact.

fair point.

the sky is blue.

 

back on topic.

[Popuplights]

1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

Oil doesn't seem dead this morning! Now in profit on all the oilies.

My RDSB is looking a lot healthier too. Soon be broken even. 

[CVG]

24 minutes ago, Chewing Grass said:

Just logged on to internet baking

That's the problem with dough .....

[JMD]

14 hours ago, AWW said:

That future is already here. You can't spend your money in the pub at the moment, or anywhere else the authorities deem to be non-essential.

Yes, those government money/credit(?) vouchers (Rashford will be choking on his free school meals, he aint seen nothing yet!!) will be for food and other essentials only. The economics and the policies are alighning...

When it comes to the macro - MMT theory states governments can create and spend almost unlimited money, so long as it's spent on productive goods/services - such as infrastructure/education. Apparently these items are non-inflationary (they are also vote-winners, but i'm sure that's just coincidence) - anyway, we needn't worry our heads, because 'If' inflation is detected, governments would just stop printing.

And even if a 'prudent government' did stop printing, as DB says, leads/lags, etc, it will already be too late at that point to turn of the money taps. 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

28 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

My RDSB is looking a lot healthier too. Soon be broken even. 

 

YES...oils looking VERY Rosie!

 

Last month RDSB hit a LOW of around £8.70...HOW many on here thought RDSB will probably go LOWER and hung on...???

 

Bloody well makes ya sick don't it...WHEN ya FORGET to buy MORE at bargain prices!

 

Still at least i bought more around the 12 quid mark BETTER than my 1st buy of 19 quid!!!

 

Wonder if they will go down again to that LOW when we finally get the BIG KAHUNA???

 

What does Mr Hunters crystal ball say...

 

 

[Popuplights]

3 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Still at least i bought more around the 12 quid mark BETTER than my 1st buy of 19 quid!!!

What is your average? I'm at about 14.50

[AWW]

7 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

Last month RDSB hit a LOW of around £8.70...HOW many on here thought RDSB will probably go LOWER and hung on...???

 

I thought it might go lower and bought more... 863.86. Sold that tranche last week 😢

[Yadda yadda yadda]

2 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Re potential CGT changes this is one I haven't read before

Looking at inherited property, that would be a big change if brought in?

 

 

That is a way of taxing those who don't require expensive end of life care homes to pay for those that do but do not have property to sell. Those that need expensive care and have to sell property still won't get to retain any value though.

Unintended consequence that a lot of people will downsize thus realising those gains tax free. I wonder what this extra turnover of housing will do for prices, especially as there will be a lot of large family homes for sale...

[JMD]

On 16/11/2020 at 23:38, sancho panza said:

Been doing some reflecting on the year so far and looking back, I really wish we'd built a decent position in copper whilst the market was low in March/April.

Or any good websites/blogs where I can read up on the sector?

hi SP, i was visiting the visualcapitalist.com site and remembered copper being discussed recently on here. I like this site, lots of different topics covered, though perhaps its a bit basic (however, i'm a sucker for nice graphs and pictorials!). 

Btw, you also mentioned redoing your copper scs's, did you get round to doing that, i'd be interested in seeing if you did?

Links should work...  

Infographic: Visualizing Copper's Global Supply Chain (visualcapitalist.com)

Copper: Critical Today, Tomorrow, and Forever - Visual Capitalist

 

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

10 minutes ago, Popuplights said:

What is your average? I'm at about 14.50

 

When they hit £14 I'll get my money back, thing is in May they hit just over £14 quid and i thought i should sell out as they went up too fast, BUT yet again i bottled it and hung on, ONLY to see 'em go to £8.70!

 

Don't get me wrong I'm in the long haul with oil - it just that i like YRS-BARGAIN prices HA-ha!

 

AnyHOO...just checked my portfolio and its UP 10.5%! (Thanks @DurhamBorn )...so can't grumble...OR maybe i just like MOANING!

 

7 minutes ago, AWW said:

I thought it might go lower and bought more... 863.86. Sold that tranche last week 😢

BUGGER ain't it?! WHY...Are you not in it for the long haul ?

BTW, next time ya sell at that price shoot me a message and i'll buy 'em of ya!

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

I think we should be mindful of DBs relentless silence when the discussion centres around opinion rather than fact.

He's at work 🙂

[TNS]

IN THE BLACK AT LAST!! (well apart from that which shall not be named)