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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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16 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
Are you not in it for the long haul ?

I am, but I had a quarter of my portfolio in RDSB. That's getting into "can't sleep at night" territory for me.

As the saying goes, nobody ever went bust taking a profit...

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Just now, AWW said:

I am, but I had a quarter of my portfolio in RDSB. That's getting into "can't sleep at night" territory for me.

As the saying goes, nobody ever went bust taking a profit...

Problem is you get taxed on that profit this tax year.  I'm tempted to sell some when it is 25% off, but am aware that means in reality about 20% once you take tax into account.

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43 minutes ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
 
YES...oils looking VERY Rosie!
 
Last month RDSB hit a LOW of around £8.70...HOW many on here thought RDSB will probably go LOWER and hung on...???:Sick1:
 
Bloody well makes ya sick don't it...WHEN ya FORGET to buy MORE at bargain prices!:Old:xD
 
Still at least i bought more around the 12 quid mark BETTER than my 1st buy of 19 quid!!!
 
Wonder if they will go down again to that LOW when we finally get the BIG KAHUNA???
 
What does Mr Hunters crystal ball say...
 
image.jpeg.853561ae43c28df8f149c0ac30576a55.jpeg
 

Good call, YRS. I was waiting for a pullback to 690 ish, to buy a chunk but we were saved by the vacinne, good entry, congrats to all that loaded on oilies!

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Yellow_Reduced_Sticker
image.jpeg.f6b5da97203f0f262e9c3e8db011e8a5.jpeg
 
I reckon those CHEEKY BUGGERS at moneyweek are reading this thread!:o
 
I keep seeing “roaring 20s” etc ...popping up in their articles!
 
Hey @DurhamBorn - as this thread is YOUR copyright/intellectual property rights - ask moneyweek for some royalty payments, tell 'em once they start PAYING ya...  YOU can jack ya job in and POST MORE!!! + BUY more BP & RDSB with their generous payments! :D
 
As I've given ya the idea, i'll accept NO less than 10% commision! :Old: xD
 
 
 
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geordie_lurch
47 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Good call, YRS. I was waiting for a pullback to 690 ish, to buy a chunk but we were saved by the vacinne, good entry, congrats to all that loaded on oilies!

BP seems to be lagging compared to all the others - any reasons from those wiser on here?

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2 hours ago, JMD said:

hi SP, i was visiting the visualcapitalist.com site and remembered copper being discussed recently on here. I like this site, lots of different topics covered, though perhaps its a bit basic (however, i'm a sucker for nice graphs and pictorials!). 

Btw, you also mentioned redoing your copper scs's, did you get round to doing that, i'd be interested in seeing if you did?

Links should work...  

Infographic: Visualizing Copper's Global Supply Chain (visualcapitalist.com)

Copper: Critical Today, Tomorrow, and Forever - Visual Capitalist

 

 

Cheers JMD,been working over the weekend and on my off days have stuff to do.I'm looking now primarily at buying copper post credit event/BK,we're heading in Q4 so I may wait unitl the new year after Q4 figs released as it takes sometime.

AM going to redo big oil and potash this week if I get time as I'm buying/trading those at the mo.

54 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

BP seems to be lagging compared to all the others - any reasons from those wiser on here?

I was sizing up some final purchases in the sector and see the value in XOM/BP as theyve risen less than Repsol/ENI/RDSB.Total/EQNR never dropped that much.to me it looks like a classic sector sell off ,some get hamered more than others,some bounce back quicker.

There are more savvy than me on thread so happy to be corrected but personally not reading too much into differnces in price movement.

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58 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

BP seems to be lagging compared to all the others - any reasons from those wiser on here?

its to give you chance to buy mooooaaarrr at knockdown prices.

@Yellow_Reduced_Sticker buy some moooaaarr so it goes down.

Get hunter to pump the metals as well so i can buy moooooaaaarr.

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For those wondering about gold - apart from it being Comex options expiry nonsense, gold is also nicely completing the handle of a 10 year cup and handle formation (see below). It could retrace as far as $1700.

 

Image

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Bobthebuilder
2 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
When they hit £14 I'll get my money back, thing is in May they hit just over £14 quid and i thought i should sell out as they went up too fast, BUT yet again i bottled it and hung on, ONLY to see 'em go to £8.70!
 
Don't get me wrong I'm in the long haul with oil - it just that i like YRS-BARGAIN prices HA-ha!

I am facing a nice dilemma. One of my old rules is I sell profit if a share ever hits +%30. Repsol are just nearing that as we speak. Do I take profit or just hang in for the long run? Decisions, decisions.

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49 minutes ago, Errol said:

For those wondering about gold - apart from it being Comex options expiry nonsense, gold is also nicely completing the handle of a 10 year cup and handle formation (see below). It could retrace as far as $1700.

 

Image

Been weird watching BTC and gold price action last few days - I'm long both at a ratio of 1 BTC per gold kg, and it's like some kind of self-driving portfolio rotating itself out of gold into BTC, without going anywhere much.

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39 minutes ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am facing a nice dilemma. One of my old rules is I sell profit if a share ever hits +%30. Repsol are just nearing that as we speak. Do I take profit or just hang in for the long run? Decisions, decisions.

First rule, let the profits run 😁

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VeryMeanReversion

 

 

I bought an extra £55K of RDSB and BP just before this crazy rise making ~£22K => Genius

However, I've lost more than that (£29K) on the one that cannot be named => Idiot

The consolation is that including divis from all of them over the last few years, its basically even.

SIPP is £11K up in a day overall so best ever, now six figures in RDSB/BP.  I'm going to fill up on super-unleaded next time to celebrate.

In an inflationary world, energy will be the new money.

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OIL HAS BROKEN OUT!

Screenshot_2020-11-24_16-37-57.png.140579ec47892cbf43a586c384dede7a.png

HODL FOR THE 911 :Jumping:

217632835_hodltheoilies.jpg.6631d0c15f826ea21bc6c03b82ae4bae.jpg

Edit: not gonna waste my money on something so ostentatious so might go for an ebike in the sun instead :)

d4s.thumb.jpeg.2cc4c76c0706698c3cbff3273707ce93.jpeg

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2 hours ago, geordie_lurch said:

BP seems to be lagging compared to all the others - any reasons from those wiser on here?

(Am not one of the 'wise' here) But maybe something to do with the ESG story...? BP certainly appear to be the most woke oilies. 

This guy recommends buying Gazprom, and not touching BP. 

See link below. (Thanks to Hearts Ease for originally posting link)

The End of the Oil Age? – TraderFerg

Extract here... Re. Mantra/Clamor for corporate 'Environmental-Social-Governance' (ESG) take BP as an example: 

It marks a small setback for BP’s hopes to sell $25 billion in assets by 2025 in an effort to reduce debt as it begins a shift towards low-carbon energy. BP said it had already completed, or agreed, transactions approaching half of this target, including a $5.6 billion sale of its Alaska business and a $5 billion sale of its petrochemical business.

This makes BP largely uninvestable in my view. Holding fire sales for their oil assets while buying into renewable projects at a premium is the definition of sell low, buy high.

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8 minutes ago, leonardratso said:

whats that bag been thrown out of the porsche? is it coke? or dogshit?

Gold stocks? xD

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1 hour ago, Bobthebuilder said:

I am facing a nice dilemma. One of my old rules is I sell profit if a share ever hits +%30

Strange coincidence, BT was up 30% for me last week and I was gonna sell.....must have gone for a crap in the woods and they went back down o.O

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47 minutes ago, JMD said:

(Am not one of the 'wise' here) But maybe something to do with the ESG story...? BP certainly appear to be the most woke oilies. 

This guy recommends buying Gazprom, and not touching BP. 

See link below. (Thanks to Hearts Ease for originally posting link)

The End of the Oil Age? – TraderFerg

Extract here... Re. Mantra/Clamor for corporate 'Environmental-Social-Governance' (ESG) take BP as an example: 

It marks a small setback for BP’s hopes to sell $25 billion in assets by 2025 in an effort to reduce debt as it begins a shift towards low-carbon energy. BP said it had already completed, or agreed, transactions approaching half of this target, including a $5.6 billion sale of its Alaska business and a $5 billion sale of its petrochemical business.

This makes BP largely uninvestable in my view. Holding fire sales for their oil assets while buying into renewable projects at a premium is the definition of sell low, buy high.

Over 10 years ago, BP did try to make renewable successful, but wasn't successful, partly because it couldn't compete with cheap Chinese production.

Renewables only make economic sense for companies when they're either given huge government subsidies or oil prices are high enough to make renewable investment profitable.

Looney is probably betting on huge government infrastructure subsidies for green energy in the coming years and, as supply wont keep up with demand, high oil prices to make green energy economically competitive

Bp is aiming for a 40% reduction in its oil/gas production over 10 years, if Looney keeps his job, but the bulk of its money will still come from oil/gas

The selling of its petrochemical business and other projects has been spun as green PR, but BP has a lot of debt at about 41 billion dollars and is trying to reduce it. It's trying to get it down to 35. Once it does, it'll return 60% surplus money to shareholders with share buybacks

With its current and future investments in Hydrogen and the bulk of its production in oil/gas, I don't think BP is a sell just yet. If you're in shell/gazprom, etc, then I think BP is still a hold

 

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Sorry to upset you all but what is the share that can not be named?

I would look back through the thread but you lot have managed to rack up about 2000 pages

 

:)

Thanks

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1 hour ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

OIL HAS BROKEN OUT!

Got some REPSOL for the wife's ISA today. And my XOM are looking  a bit less sick

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Does anyone know why my daily amount just went up to an increase of 4.6% but my total increase has lost £1000? :/

Something to do with markets shutting in the UK? Surely the total is the total?

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