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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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11 minutes ago, Loki said:

Shit the bed, I last looked at my portfolio before the Americans opened

DOW OVER 30K!!! Dem mad Yankees must love that daft old fecker 'Biden the pedo'....o.O

OR....

 

 

make-money-online-girl-money-cash-smell-smile.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Does anyone know why my daily amount just went up to an increase of 4.6% but my total increase has lost £1000? :/

Something to do with markets shutting in the UK? Surely the total is the total?

If it's on HL, the app always goes a bit mental after the close. 

2 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

DOW OVER 30K!!! Dem mad Yankees must love that daft old fecker 'Biden the pedo'....o.O

OR....

 

 

make-money-online-girl-money-cash-smell-smile.jpg

Smell them dollars.....

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14 minutes ago, Cattle Prod said:

Centrica. I still have it :ph34r:

I sold at -£4k. Just wanted out. Looking at the 1Y chart, I've no regrets, but it's obvious that CNA has completely ignored what's happened to the energy sector this month. Must stop wondering whether it is about to join the party...

EDIT: Actually no, it hasn't ignored it, it has bounced. It's just that the bounce looks like nothing in the context of March.

Screenshot 2020-11-24 at 17.11.53.png

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Just now, Popuplights said:

If it's on HL, the app always goes a bit mental after the close. 

HL yes, but the website - although I guess the numbers are the same.  That's some screwy maths whatever they are doing. O.o

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StrugglingMillennial
13 minutes ago, Loki said:

HL yes, but the website - although I guess the numbers are the same.  That's some screwy maths whatever they are doing. O.o

It happened to me the other day Loki, i thought i'd won the lottery 😄

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StrugglingMillennial
21 minutes ago, Loki said:

Which number ended up being correct?   ( :CryBaby: )

It was my BT shares, they had gone up about three fold. I just checked the price of them elsewhere because i knew something was up.

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10 minutes ago, Panda said:

https://www.energy-pedia.com/news/united-kingdom/kistos-announces-proposed-admission-to-trading-on-aim-181189

Anybody looking at this stock?

Top sliced today.

Might take a dip in tomorrow. Worth a £10k punt?

Thoughts.

Could energy be the new Bitcoin? Especially as Argo reports they are using 31 megawatts to mine dem dere digits.

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Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, Loki said:

HL yes, but the website - although I guess the numbers are the same.  That's some screwy maths whatever they are doing. O.o

I'd say it's a waste of time looking at UK shares on HL between 4:30pm and 6pm midweek. It's all over the place, often higher sell than buy prices.

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5 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I'd say it's a waste of time looking at UK shares on HL between 4:30pm and 6pm midweek. It's all over the place, often higher sell than buy prices.

I see, thanks mate

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Yadda yadda yadda
2 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Centrica. I still have it :ph34r:

I've still got mine. It is just sort of lying there doing nothing. In hindsight should have sold them to go into oil. However, they're going to struggle to lose much more money so I'll keep them as a reminder.

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5 hours ago, Errol said:

For those wondering about gold - apart from it being Comex options expiry nonsense, gold is also nicely completing the handle of a 10 year cup and handle formation (see below). It could retrace as far as $1700.

 

Image

Must say I'm starting to run my slide rule over some goldies again after  selling some in early sept.Some are still way too high but I reckon the following might dip enough for us.

Big boys

Newcrest sub 18,Barrick sub 20

Medium size

Anglogold Ashantisub 20,Buenaventurasub 10,Hochschild sub 190(cheap cheap,have barely moved all year which says they're a bit unloved),New Goild sub 1.50,Osisiko sub $10

 

 

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Yadda yadda yadda
38 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

Must say I'm starting to run my slide rule over some goldies again after  selling some in early sept.Some are still way too high but I reckon the following might dip enough for us.

Big boys

Newcrest sub 18,Barrick sub 20

Medium size

Anglogold Ashantisub 20,Buenaventurasub 10,Hochschild sub 190(cheap cheap,have barely moved all year which says they're a bit unloved),New Goild sub 1.50,Osisiko sub $10

 

 

I put a small limit order in for HOC at 201 this afternoon. Dipping a toe in there, if it triggers. Could well go a lot lower but I'll buy more if it does.

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Interesting comment by the author of the Surplus Energy Economics blog

Quote

 

What you highlight here relates to some fundamental changes on the horizon.

The current system might be described as a ‘dissipative landfill’ economy. We produce huge amounts of ‘stuff’ in an energy-profligate way, and much of it ends up being thrown away very quickly. Taking plastic items as examples, these use energy both as materials and to power processes. The human input is limited to design processes, and small numbers watching the machines that are doing the work.

In the future, labour availability will remain abundant, but energy supply will not. The way forward under these conditions isn’t to carry on using energy to produce ‘stuff’ destined for landfill, but to leverage the labour input through up-skilling.

Instead of buying something mass produced using high-energy/low-labour processes, we might find ourselves buying lower-energy, more crafted products which last a lot longer.

The flexibility in the human input concentrates on skills. Instead of buying a cheap flat-pack kitchen table, for instance, you might instead buy one made by craftsmen. This will cost more to buy, but will last much longer.

I’ve been working on something along these lines, provisionally called “crafting the future”. The logic of “pile ’em high, sell ’em cheap” is losing its viability as the balance between energy and labour changes. Skills may be the key to making the best of this situation.

 

 

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Massive companies bounce 25%+ and you all worry about one lagging by a small amount.The market will go where its going in its own time.The reflation shares have led the market up the last few weeks,my own portfolio is out performing the FTSE 100 by 2.3x since the March lows and actually hit the highest level its ever been today.Compare your portfolio to the indices over time frames.Trying to time and worrying about every move up and down is the mistake 90% of retail investors make.Relax,do something else,that way you avoid being whipsawed by the market shaking out all but the strongest hands in sectors that will run for a decade,with regular sharp pull backsalong the way.

 

 

 

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Yadda yadda yadda
17 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Massive companies bounce 25%+ and you all worry about one lagging by a small amount.The market will go where its going in its own time.The reflation shares have led the market up the last few weeks,my own portfolio is out performing the FTSE 100 by 2.3x since the March lows and actually hit the highest level its ever been today.Compare your portfolio to the indices over time frames.Trying to time and worrying about every move up and down is the mistake 90% of retail investors make.Relax,do something else,that way you avoid being whipsawed by the market shaking out all but the strongest hands in sectors that will run for a decade,with regular sharp pull backsalong the way.

 

 

 

DB, it has been magic! Thanks.

Repsol up 65% from my cheapest tranche. Petrobras 50%. RDSB and BP up a lot from most recent purchases. Telecoms showing real life. Miners down from their highs but still well up. Looking to add to them now. No intention to sell anything.

Edit to add that I would love to see them all fall again to buy more at bargain prices. Doubt I'll be so lucky but for me the bounce we have had is proof of the concept. 

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5 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

DB, it has been magic! Thanks.

Repsol up 65% from my cheapest tranche. Petrobras 50%. RDSB and BP up a lot from most recent purchases. Telecoms showing real life. Miners down from their highs but still well up. Looking to add to them now. No intention to sell anything.

Edit to add that I would love to see them all fall again to buy more at bargain prices. Doubt I'll be so lucky but for me the bounce we have had is proof of the concept. 

I've been thinking about this.  If - and it is a big if - the Trump claims of fraud are proven correct before Christmas, and Biden is not pres, the response from the market would be, I suspect, heavily negative in the first reaction.  For a start, much less chance of war in the middle east.

I'm tempted to sell some oilies at the point where I think the fraud evidence is looking like becoming material (I fully expect us here on DOSBODS, because of the wide range of inputs, to be 24-48 hours ahead of the MSM).

I wonder if you'd get a 20% correction, be able to buy back in cheaper again?

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UnconventionalWisdom
10 hours ago, TheNickos said:

well apart from that which shall not be named)

I'm down 47% in my LISA but up 44% in the ISA for said share.

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58 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Trying to time and worrying about every move up and down is the mistake 90% of retail investors make.Relax,do something else,that way you avoid being whipsawed by the market 

Agree completely. You establish your investment thesis, and buy accordingly. Ignore the noise. Buy when prices are low but also a little and regularly. 

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never a truer word spoken, enemadale(yes) is doing for me;

image.png.11047633e32e81b42934da210f25fc77.png

ive bin chipping 20pence in every day... one day i may make it to £100 great british pounds.

 

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