Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Must admit shorting isnt for me.I never use leverage ever and with longs you can sit and wait with no pressure.Im pretty sure all his shorts will fall huge amounts from where they are now,but a parabolic increase would destroy anyone leveraged.Tesla is a huge bubble of course.Even a guy at work said his son had started buying it on some App,hes 21 and works in Tesco.Tesla only makes money on carbon credits etc from what i can see in its accounts.

Instead of shorting though i prefer to look at the opposite end of the bubble,of course that old style energy right now.

Steve is a superb contrarian and has really deep knowledge in areas most people dont even consider.He would be first to admit though timing is never perfect.

I seem to remember you were shorting Amazon at one time? Spread firms allow you to use leverage but you could set a  maximum loss and set aside or even deposit the whole amount as if writing it off. I think shorting has a place at specific times, I was happy with my 'Covid' list earlier this year. Though over a longer period prices should rise because of inflation and there's always that pesky Fed. Shorting isn't a long game.

[StrugglingMillennial]

Which websites are good for shorting, ive always been interested in having a go with a small amount of money. 

[DurhamBorn]

26 minutes ago, Democorruptcy said:

I seem to remember you were shorting Amazon at one time? Spread firms allow you to use leverage but you could set a  maximum loss and set aside or even deposit the whole amount as if writing it off. I think shorting has a place at specific times, I was happy with my 'Covid' list earlier this year. Though over a longer period prices should rise because of inflation and there's always that pesky Fed. Shorting isn't a long game.

Iv shorted a few things over the years but we are talking 1% of my portfolio and usually if ever as a pair trade,long one short the other.You have the interest charge decay as well to consider.I think like you say its a short term thing.I think your mindset changes as you get older and hopefully your wealth gets higher.In my 20s i wanted growth and ever considered taking any income,where now i tend to focus on income and beating inflation.

Another thing to consider when shorting and is the main reason i dont is that im not very good at it.I think its more suited to chartists etc.

I guess its how Steve shorts and if there is leverage etc.Not sure how it works in the US.

[DurhamBorn]

23 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Which websites are good for shorting, ive always been interested in having a go with a small amount of money. 

I used Cityindex in the past,no idea what its like now though as havent used for a long time.My advice would be to be very careful,most people lose,something like 75% i think.

[Democorruptcy]

13 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv shorted a few things over the years but we are talking 1% of my portfolio and usually if ever as a pair trade,long one short the other.You have the interest charge decay as well to consider.I think like you say its a short term thing.I think your mindset changes as you get older and hopefully your wealth gets higher.In my 20s i wanted growth and ever considered taking any income,where now i tend to focus on income and beating inflation.

Another thing to consider when shorting and is the main reason i dont is that im not very good at it.I think its more suited to chartists etc.

I guess its how Steve shorts and if there is leverage etc.Not sure how it works in the US.

I think age is a factor. Like old golfers stood over a putt who have more misses to remember, so do investors. It can become a fear of losing rather than only thinking of winning.

[Democorruptcy]

43 minutes ago, StrugglingMillennial said:

Which websites are good for shorting, ive always been interested in having a go with a small amount of money. 

I've used City and IG

[JMD]

21 hours ago, CVG said:

PM's are one of my five Asset Classes - 20% split between physical at home, physical in vault, miners and ETF's for simplified balancing. I also weight within that according to the gold silver ratio. So at the moment I'm buying more silver action than gold. As PM prices fall I'm forced to rebalance from my winning asset classes thus buying low.

Similar to you, two of my asset classes are PM's and commodities. I am looking to rebalance/sell high buy low, within each, whilst maintaing overall allocation portfolio %'s. My other equity investments pay me dividends, so im keen to try and make my pm/commods earn their keep!                                                                                              You also mention the GSR. Have you a strategy plan for using it to sell silver and buy gold? I ask because I have a large etf silver holding that I bought at average of 100/1, and I hope to begin 'swopping' the silver for gold when the gsr gets below 50/1. I would then buy physical gold for long term hold. Just enquiring in case you are doing something similar. I am trying to decide on a rational plan so I dont let emotion get in the way when it comes time to begin selling silver, etc.

[Boon]

IGIndex are good.

Although I 'fought the fed' earlier on during the crash (and lost) and it seems obvious to me why a lot of people lose.

Either you need extremely disciplined trade management to minimise losses, or you have to have the appetite to sit on losses for a while and willing to wait for the market to turn your way. You also have to appreciate the nature of the stake limits and accept you can lose much more than budgeted. 

The amateur trader has none of this, they'll either trade with no stop or meaningless stop, and not have the balls to ride out a bad position. For example, I was short the FTSE earlier this year and kept on taking profits at what I thought were turning points. There was one savage rip in June where the markets went back up to 6500 and I closed at a loss, wiping out all the profits I had made.

Had I rode this out I would have made a large profit as the FTSE rebounded back down to 5500 last month. But going against that is the imputed interest charge, essentially you are borrowing something off them to short and you get charged interest on that whether you like it or not. So waiting it out a long time was costing money, to the point where waiting a couple of months would then mean needing a huge move just to break even. This interest charge is sly, just debited against your cash balance and is very small on its own so you don't notice, but it accumulates over time.

So 76% of people lose, and I am not surprised. 

I have reformed my opinions and I think the best use of the short may be to hedge something specific, also at a specific time (for instance, fundamental news). The opposite use (hedging something general, over a long period of time) is not efficient.

If you are trying to make money it may be better to find something to be long with, as I see it that is swimming with the tide.

 

[Lightscribe]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Interesting. Here's a decomplex play on imaging: helium. It's very rare, and can get very expensive. Little known is that one of its biggest uses is MRI scanners. Much to date has come from US stockpiles, now running down. It's found alongside hydrocarbons sometimes, though rarely in commercial quantities. I've seen it cropping up here and there in oil and gas project chatter. Qatar produces some, I think Prof Gluyas in Durham was hawking a project in Tanzania. Perhaps @DurhamBorn can get him drunk once the pubs open?! He's a friendly character 

Not sure if these hospital plans are enough to affect world supply, but could be part of a wider trend. For the extreme contrarians: buy up party balloon bottled supply now!

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-49715838

Yup Helium is also used in chip manufacturing. US stockpiled it during the First World War, due to non combustible properties vs hydrogen in the airships. Germany didn’t have a choice however as the US had cut off all avenues of supply. 

Bit like when the US sneakily managed to get supplies of Titanium from Russia for the SR-71 so they were providing the materials to spy on themselves. 

https://www.wearethemighty.com/articles/russia-sold-its-enemy-the-metal-for-sr-71-blackbird-spyplane/

All interesting stuff, but also quite sobering to think how stuffed we would be in another conflict as we don’t make or have supplies of anything much anymore as we over rely on importation of everything.

Anyways back on topic. Helium will become very rare. Perhaps that’s why China is so interested in getting to the moon recently (where there is an abundance of helium and other rare metals) and testing to transport cargo back.

[JMD]

16 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes and no.After the financial crisis the CBs pretty much re-financed the banks balance sheets with QE and also monetized half of governments welfare budgets .This time they are going to finance direct fiscal investment.They are even nudging governments to get on with it.Its a once in a generation chance to print enough to actually re-tool,re-build.I wont see it again,my children might not.

Europe has made massive policy errors yes.Its mainly because they have the same currency but different fiscal needs.Germany has pretty much stolen all the wealth.As usual.

DB, are you looking at any specific builders to invest in, or do you think the construction sector is risky and/or maybe not 'decomplex'? I.e... maybe stick to the fundamentals like energy, commods, or the steel/chemical industries? Thing is I'd really like to invest in the 'great rebuild of the country', but is that just an emotional response, and better sticking to the fundamental/basic sectors?                                                                              Btw, I agree with you about Germany, just don't tell them your real name... or you might find that 'your name will also go on the list!' (at least that's what private Pike tells me happens)

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Interesting. Here's a decomplex play on imaging: helium. It's very rare, and can get very expensive. Little known is that one of its biggest uses is MRI scanners. Much to date has come from US stockpiles, now running down. It's found alongside hydrocarbons sometimes, though rarely in commercial quantities. I've seen it cropping up here and there in oil and gas project chatter. Qatar produces some, I think Prof Gluyas in Durham was hawking a project in Tanzania. Perhaps @DurhamBorn can get him drunk once the pubs open?! He's a friendly character 

Not sure if these hospital plans are enough to affect world supply, but could be part of a wider trend. For the extreme contrarians: buy up party balloon bottled supply now!

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-49715838

Thanks for the tip. But I notice that the chart biggs up Cryogenics. So I'm in! After all, it's 200k whole body, 80k a head(literally!). Seriously though, i guess I should seek out some decent US/British, or German/Scandi, chemical companies.

[DurhamBorn]

19 minutes ago, JMD said:

DB, are you looking at any specific builders to invest in, or do you think the construction sector is risky and/or maybe not 'decomplex'? I.e... maybe stick to the fundamentals like energy, commods, or the steel/chemical industries? Thing is I'd really like to invest in the 'great rebuild of the country', but is that just an emotional response, and better sticking to the fundamental/basic sectors?                                                                              Btw, I agree with you about Germany, just don't tell them your real name... or you might find that 'your name will also go on the list!' (at least that's what private Pike tells me happens)

Im not interested in builders etc.Main reason is i think its much easier to invest in companies way back along the chain who are almost certain to gain and also avoid complete capital loss before we get there.Its to be remembered though im actually at the level where i can retire etc.I dont need to increase capital.So although of course i expect my capital will increase im actually aiming for inflation+ and an income that rises with inflation or more.Younger people might be chasing higher returns.If my capital inflation adjusted was the same the day i leave this mortal coil id consider it job done.

Remember as well the UK is a tiny part of the reflation,it will be global.

[JMD]

36 minutes ago, Lightscribe said:

Yup Helium is also used in chip manufacturing. US stockpiled it during the First World War, due to non combustible properties vs hydrogen in the airships. Germany didn’t have a choice however as the US had cut off all avenues of supply. 

Bit like when the US sneakily managed to get supplies of Titanium from Russia for the SR-71 so they were providing the materials to spy on themselves. 

https://www.wearethemighty.com/articles/russia-sold-its-enemy-the-metal-for-sr-71-blackbird-spyplane/

All interesting stuff, but also quite sobering to think how stuffed we would be in another conflict as we don’t make or have supplies of anything much anymore as we over rely on importation of everything.

Anyways back on topic. Helium will become very rare. Perhaps that’s why China is so interested in getting to the moon recently (where there is an abundance of helium and other rare metals) and testing to transport cargo back.

Any specific chemical co's you are aware of that would be good defensive plays? I'm thinking each country will need to produce its own, so a US one, a British, a German one should be on our watch  lists?

[Transistor Man]

6 minutes ago, JMD said:

Any specific chemical co's you are aware of that would be good defensive plays? I'm thinking each country will need to produce its own, so a US one, a British, a German one should be on our watch  lists?

Linde, Air Liquide 

[DurhamBorn]

7 minutes ago, JMD said:

Any specific chemical co's you are aware of that would be good defensive plays? I'm thinking each country will need to produce its own, so a US one, a British, a German one should be on our watch  lists?

I bought most of them during the crash in March Solvay SA ,Evonik ,BASF ,Eastman Chemical Com ,and they are up 50% to 100% so im not sure if entering now is good or if another pull back will be worth waiting for.INEOS has sealed up most of the UK and cant be invested in.Remember as well big oil is also a play on chemicals.

[DurhamBorn]

@Cattle Prod i think a good way to lay Helium is with Air Products and Chemicals Inc.They are involved in Algeria with Helium from LNG i think.

 

[Harley]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im not interested in builders etc.Main reason is i think its much easier to invest in companies way back along the chain who are almost certain to gain and also avoid complete capital loss before we get there.Its to be remembered though im actually at the level where i can retire etc.I dont need to increase capital.So although of course i expect my capital will increase im actually aiming for inflation+ and an income that rises with inflation or more.Younger people might be chasing higher returns.If my capital inflation adjusted was the same the day i leave this mortal coil id consider it job done.

Remember as well the UK is a tiny part of the reflation,it will be global.

Similar caution here so my "value" stock screener is set at a 3% yield as I want a bit of a contribution towards inflation while I wait for the capital gains, but the other screening parameters give a very small pool of stocks (whoops, none of which are my existing income focused stocks and few are in the UK!).

[CVG]

4 hours ago, JMD said:

Similar to you, two of my asset classes are PM's and commodities. I am looking to rebalance/sell high buy low, within each, whilst maintaing overall allocation portfolio %'s. My other equity investments pay me dividends, so im keen to try and make my pm/commods earn their keep!                                                                                              You also mention the GSR. Have you a strategy plan for using it to sell silver and buy gold? I ask because I have a large etf silver holding that I bought at average of 100/1, and I hope to begin 'swopping' the silver for gold when the gsr gets below 50/1. I would then buy physical gold for long term hold. Just enquiring in case you are doing something similar. I am trying to decide on a rational plan so I dont let emotion get in the way when it comes time to begin selling silver, etc.

Snap. I'm look to ladder over at 50.

[ONC]

9 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

Interesting. Here's a decomplex play on imaging: helium. It's very rare, and can get very expensive. Little known is that one of its biggest uses is MRI scanners. Much to date has come from US stockpiles, now running down. It's found alongside hydrocarbons sometimes, though rarely in commercial quantities. I've seen it cropping up here and there in oil and gas project chatter. Qatar produces some, I think Prof Gluyas in Durham was hawking a project in Tanzania. Perhaps @DurhamBorn can get him drunk once the pubs open?! He's a friendly character 

Not sure if these hospital plans are enough to affect world supply, but could be part of a wider trend. For the extreme contrarians: buy up party balloon bottled supply now!

 

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/business-49715838

Hi Cattleprod, would be careful with this play on imaging. I work with MRI and there are now helium “free” superconducting magnets.  Typical MRI contains 1700 litres of helium, the new magnets only 7litres

https://www.medgadget.com/2018/09/philips-helium-free-mri-system-combines-productivity-with-high-quality-imaging.html

 

 

 

[Yellow_Reduced_Sticker]

22 hours ago, Errol said:

Shell must pay nearly half a billion for oil spill in Nigeria, court rules

I wonder if this will send their share price DIVING back to this year's LOW of £8.69... be real NICE so ...we can ALL buy some more on the CHEAP and then watch the stock ascent to £30+ with LOVELY BIG dividends!!!

[JREWING]

1 hour ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:

I wonder if this will send their share price DIVING back to this year's LOW of £8.69... be real NICE so ...we can ALL buy some more on the CHEAP and then watch the stock ascent to £30+ with LOVELY BIG dividends!!!

They'll find that down the back of the sofa or in the coffee machine pool pot.

Half a bill to Shell is like 10 Bob to us mere mortals.

Can't see it bothering the SP.

 

 

 

[Viceroy]

On 29/11/2020 at 08:22, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been buying some miners again myself, mostly Harmony Gold at the moment as that and Cameco are going to form most of my Uranium assets.

For those who have access to US etf's, the other option to URA is URNM which was set up in 2019.

https://urnmetf.com/investor-materials 'The index is designed to track the performance of companies involved in the mining, exploration, and production of uranium as well as those holding physical uranium, owning mining royalties, or engaged in activities that support the uranium mining industry.'

 

[wherebee]

Well, my entire portfolio is in the green except for two small Aussie miners which are speculation plays (500 bucks in each - if they hit good gold in their plots they'll be 100 baggers).

 

Hurrah for DB and this thread.

 

Going off to look at Uranium miners next.

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, Panda said:

They'll find that down the back of the sofa or in the coffee machine pool pot.

Half a bill to Shell is like 10 Bob to us mere mortals.

Can't see it bothering the SP.

 

 

 

But its not always about the financial effects, more the perceived/sentiment effects. Add to that those pension scheme that are becoming more WOKEish and such a news item could have them bailing out into a more `green` alternative.

[jamtomorrow]

On 28/11/2020 at 19:22, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been buying some miners again myself,mostly Harmony Gold at the moment as that and Cameco are going to form most of my Uranium assets.

Screened Cameco couple of months back but couldn't quite justify pushing the button at $10, track record on divis just didn't quite swing it at that price for me.

Already hold plenty of RIO and BHP, they'll just have to do as my Uranium exposure unless/until BK brings CCJ (I kid you not) into range.