Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Democorruptcy]

Air pollution in the news

Quote

 

A fresh inquest will be held into the death of a nine-year-old girl whose fatal asthma attack may have been linked to air pollution near her home.

Ella Kissi-Debrah, who lived near the South Circular Road in Lewisham, south east London, died in 2013 after having seizures for three years.

The High Court granted a new inquest after Ella's mother said more evidence had come to light.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-48132490

 

 

 

[TNS]

Want voda to drop sub 120 so i can pick up a few 

[AlfredTheLittle]

1 hour ago, Democorruptcy said:

Air pollution in the news

 

 

Thanks again Gordon Brown, diesel cars yet another of your fuckups

[DoINeedOne]

On 28/11/2020 at 13:46, dnb24 said:

Long time lurker here, love this thread- best education I’ve ever had I think (including the 12 years at school)!
Afraid I can’t offer the insights like DB/CP etc but Just a few things I’ve been made aware over the past week showing how money from BOE is being spent across government initiative. Our hospital-I work in NHS as clinician 

Welcome this is what’s great about this thread different people from different walks of life 

Your views and any info about working in the NHS is always welcome 

 

18 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Im not interested in builders etc.Main reason is i think its much easier to invest in companies way back along the chain who are almost certain to gain and also avoid complete capital loss before we get there.

With construction I think it’s always best to invest in the companies who are there at the start of the job or who supply the materials

I used to work as a carpenter on some big sites hospital, football stadium, shopping centres some just large refurbs but the main construction companies 99% of the time had tight schedules where if the job was not finished by X date they would incur weekly penalties so near the end they would throw money at it trying get jobs finished on time with overtime etc...

So much waste obviously they still make money but so many working parts and things that can go wrong when you could invest in the early stage companies 

A smaller scale example and penny drop moment for me was I used to do a lot kitchen fitting and was becoming frustrated with customers wanting to save money buying the own cheap wonky worktops , tiles or hardwood flooring etc... from eBay that was never all the same size and a pain to lay or fit

My brother a bricklayer made the point of he is normally first on the job the customer has just got a loan for the job extension and is feeling flush and happy to pay out, by the time I get there to do the kitchen etc... near the end money is getting tight so they are stressed and looking for ways to save and cut costs

Now imagine the headaches of running a hospital build there’s a lot waste in construction companies and most of the work is subbed out

 

[DoINeedOne]

Whilst watching a few reviews about electric motorbikes this seems to be a problem I keep hearing about 

 

Then saw this 

‘Why did it take nine hours to go 130 miles in our new electric Porsche?’

A Kent couple love their new car – but their experience suggests there are problems with the charging network

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/nov/28/electric-cars-porsche-charging-network

 

[Democorruptcy]

22 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

Whilst watching a few reviews about electric motorbikes this seems to be a problem I keep hearing about 

 

Then saw this 

‘Why did it take nine hours to go 130 miles in our new electric Porsche?’

A Kent couple love their new car – but their experience suggests there are problems with the charging network

https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/nov/28/electric-cars-porsche-charging-network

 

Shell are on the case...

39p per kilowatt hour

 

[geordie_lurch]

Following on from what I think is an important aspect of the future a lot aren't paying attention to - namely central banks forcing us over to centrally controlled digital £s and $s etc this Zerohedge piece sums up this possible alternative future well I think...

Quote

If consensus was dead wrong about the economic outcome of the first QE back in 2009, could consensus be just as wrong now, and with most expecting deflation no matter how big the QE, could central banks finally "succeed" in sparking runaway inflation?

The answer is yes and it will come in the form of digital currencies which we - and DoubleLine - have discussed extensively in the past year, which while the biggest economic and financial story of the year by far, has been successfully drowned in the noise surrounding covid and the US presidential election.

But before we get into the specifics of how, here is another take on why, courtesy of BofA Chief Investment Officer Michael Hartnett, who believes that the key theme of the next decade will be "Dollar Debasement & Digital Currencies", to wit:

2020 saw $21tn of global fiscal and monetary stimulus. The US federal deficit skyrocketed to 25% of GDP, second only to WWII (27%). Global debt is expected to hit $277tn or 365% of GDP by year end, an all-time high while global interest rates are at their lowest level in 5,000 years. In the coming decade, loss of central bank independence, shift towards digital currencies as conduits for policy (UBI, "helicopter drops", student debt forgiveness), introduction of Yield Curve Control & stealth Modern Monetary Theory, the end of era of “financial engineering” and considerable public sector deficits are all reasons we think the US will find it tougher to finance current account surpluses in coming years…the dollar likely will decline, bullish for commodities & EM.

and

Quote

In October, China launched one of the biggest real-world trials for its digital currency, when the government in Shenzhen carried out a lottery to give away a total of 10 million yuan (about $1.5 million) worth of the digital currency. Nearly 2 million people applied and 50,000 people actually won.

The winners are required to download a digital Renminbi app in order to receive a "red packet" worth 200 digital yuan ($30), which they can then spend at over 3,000 designated retailers in Shenzhen’s Luohu district, according to China Daily. After that, they’ll be able to buy goods from local pharmacies, supermarkets and even Walmart.

The idea was to not only test the technology involved, but boost consumer spending in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. In short, China is not only subsidizing the centrally-planned economy by manipulating the supply-side of the question- it now can prop up demand by handing out digital currency to anyone (or everyone).

Of course, unlike traditional central bank account-based currencies such as reserves, or decentralized cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, China’s digital currency would be controlled by the country’s central bank and will be instantly made available at a moment's notice to anyone who can receive it.

...

Consider it a way for central banks to atone for the fact that their policies were unable to boost wages in the past decade; instead, they will now simply hand out money with little regard for the consequences, as long as the consequences are sufficiently reflationary they allow some of the global massive debt tsunami which is now at $277 trillion, or 365% of GDP, to be inflated away.

I know some don't rate a lot of what Zerohedge published but I think the above is a must read for all those expecting the future to play out in the same monetary system we are all trying to position for. I personally think there will also be some sort of forced 'debt jubilee' and Universal Credit (Basic Income?) only if you move over to their 100% trackable and centrally managed digital coins but I am guessing as we all are here to try and prepare for what the future holds for us 

[JMD]

21 hours ago, Transistor Man said:

Linde, Air Liquide 

TransistorMan, do you have any insight/knowledge of the French satellite company Eutelsat? Telecoms is one of the big next cycle themes discussed here and i own many of them already. But satellite, although it being a specialist sector, seems something should also get exposure to. However, i don't know how they compare to competitor (better?) satellite co's operating in the same space (pun intended!)?

Eutelsat is currently cheap and paying 9% divi, but does have large debt (nb. covered by cash flow). So maybe a company for the watchlist. But is the sector in general, with IOT's, comms, survaillance/China threat, big assets/moat, a good exposure play to have? What do others think?   

Eutelsat appears well embedded in the global telecoms infrastructure and has many international contracts. Looking at the company blurb, apart from the obvious, they provide... backhaul and trunking solutions that enable remote communities to access the IP backbone or global voice traffic with a seamless interface. Communications connectivity for governments and NGOs, maritime, including commercial shipping, sea-based oil and gas operations, governmental ships and luxury vessels, as well as in-flight broadband services. In addition, it provides data to corporate and Internet networks, Internet of Things, and machine to machine applications.     

[No One]

1 hour ago, geordie_lurch said:

Following on from what I think is an important aspect of the future a lot aren't paying attention to - namely central banks forcing us over to centrally controlled digital £s and $s etc this Zerohedge piece sums up this possible alternative future well I think...

and

I know some don't rate a lot of what Zerohedge published but I think the above is a must read for all those expecting the future to play out in the same monetary system we are all trying to position for. I personally think there will also be some sort of forced 'debt jubilee' and Universal Credit (Basic Income?) only if you move over to their 100% trackable and centrally managed digital coins but I am guessing as we all are here to try and prepare for what the future holds for us 

A must watch

[Loki]

AFC hit yearly highs today.

This is why I never ever sell. 

[leonardratso]

30 minutes ago, Loki said:

AFC hit yearly highs today.

This is why I never ever sell. 

hehe, my massive tranche is ongoing, ill soon own the company;

[janch]

Oh dear, this might not be such a good idea from our "old favourite" if prices of LNG are set to rocket as predicted on here:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-s-centrica-seeks-to-sell-liquefied-natural-gas-portfolio-11606410051

Why?

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, janch said:

Oh dear, this might not be such a good idea from our "old favourite" if prices of LNG are set to rocket as predicted on here:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-k-s-centrica-seeks-to-sell-liquefied-natural-gas-portfolio-11606410051

Why?

There have been reports of a man from Durham ram-raiding the financial department in a diesel Peugeot. 

[Noallegiance]

1 hour ago, leonardratso said:

hehe, my massive tranche is ongoing, ill soon own the company;

My hydrogen holdings have performed spectacularly since I bought in April. AFC, ITM Power and Powerhouse all up over 110%.

Shame I didn't have tens of thousands of £s to chuck into them. But I picked them up cheap enough to hold thousands of shares between them.

Hoping a longish term hold (barring any takeovers) to feed meaningful gains into divi payers will help me build a solid pension foundation.

Out of circa 30 companies I own, 22 pay divis, 50% currently pay over 6%.

No way I could have even started to look at that without this thread. I'd have just bumbled along with whatever separate DC pensions I had from former employers.

[Bricormortis]

 DXY behaving as predicted by the wise on here = 91.78 currently

[DurhamBorn]

Top sliced a few chem companies today and upped my Enbridge stake.Iv been looking at midstream for a while,but i think Enbridge stands out.Given Canadian heavy crude is going to be in growing demand in the US and worldwide they are best placed to move that crude around.Canada should have 50% market share as Mexico and Venezuela fall away.Repsol has been doing deals in Canada,they know.

[No One]

20 hours ago, Viceroy said:

For those who have access to US etf's, the other option to URA is URNM which was set up in 2019.

https://urnmetf.com/investor-materials 'The index is designed to track the performance of companies involved in the mining, exploration, and production of uranium as well as those holding physical uranium, owning mining royalties, or engaged in activities that support the uranium mining industry.'

 

Can you explain more about it? I'm a bit of a n00b, and have only just begun setting up a SIPP and transferring my mini pots.

[DurhamBorn]

Another one of our terms appears in print.Slowly everything will move onto our roadmap.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/29/dangerously-close-repeating-austerity-errors-2010/

"and inject money into the veins of the economy."

[Bobthebuilder]

10 hours ago, DoINeedOne said:

My brother a bricklayer made the point of he is normally first on the job the customer has just got a loan for the job extension and is feeling flush and happy to pay out, by the time I get there to do the kitchen etc... near the end money is getting tight so they are stressed and looking for ways to save and cut costs

In my trade we call that getting in early, get the money before it runs out. Its why brickies, plumbers and sparks do well, decorators, final finishers less so.

[Noallegiance]

There have been a number of comments lately about a potential echo chamber forming here. To recognise this, the following is an interview I just listened to. Some interesting points and a couple of not-yet-discussed angles on this forum.

For me it's notable that they completely miss out hydrogen regarding energy replacement but the fella certainly makes his case well even though a few potentially convenient assumptions/omissions are made.

A straight forward listen. I enjoyed it.

 

[Chewing Grass]

10 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

There have been a number of comments lately about a potential echo chamber forming here. To recognise this, the following is an interview I just listened to. Some interesting points and a couple of not-yet-discussed angles on this forum.

For me it's notable that they completely miss out hydrogen regarding energy replacement but the fella certainly makes his case well even though a few potentially convenient assumptions/omissions are made.

Back in 1925 at the height of Sugar Beet Mania, Power Alcohol was the fuel of the future and would provide enough for 30-40% of all the countries present motor fuel requirements. I can see the attraction and beauty of hydrogen and producing it is easy enough but the costs of storage, transportation and use in cars is much more complex, expensive and problem fraught than simply burning it in non-mobile systems. Booze on the otherhand is much better but has the pesky addition of Carbon to deal with.

I can see hydrogen being blended with natural gas and just burned to generate power rather like a chemical battery, cars are a waste of time.

[Yadda yadda yadda]

38 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Another one of our terms appears in print.Slowly everything will move onto our roadmap.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/29/dangerously-close-repeating-austerity-errors-2010/

"and inject money into the veins of the economy."

That is direct theft. Full plagiarism. Roaring 20s was always going to be used, given the opportunity. Who is the Telegraph correspondent here?

[Loki]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Another one of our terms appears in print.Slowly everything will move onto our roadmap.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/11/29/dangerously-close-repeating-austerity-errors-2010/

"and inject money into the veins of the economy."

 

3 minutes ago, Yadda yadda yadda said:

That is direct theft. Full plagiarism. Roaring 20s was always going to be used, given the opportunity. Who is the Telegraph correspondent here?

 

Watch for "liquidity in the pipes" or something similar. Then we've got the bastards. 

[Yadda yadda yadda]

Just now, Loki said:

 

 

Watch for "liquidity in the pipes" or something similar. Then we've got the bastards. 

"The plumbing of the economy".

It is good stuff - no wonder they're nicking it.

[leonardratso]

make something ridiculous up, an oddball saying and see if that shows up somewhere.