Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Loki]

7 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Not sure it's going to have any momentum to get back up towards £19.50 where it was less than 30 days ago - it's currently trying to get back over £17.50 never mind over £22 where it was back in August

Someone change David H's Twitter password for fucks sake

[geordie_lurch]

Just now, Loki said:

Someone change David H's Twitter password for fucks sake

Not sure I follow?

[JMD]

16 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Strong turn around in the metals happening. Platinum has been rising for a couple of weeks. Silver up over 5% this morning.

I hope platinum does do more, i bought lots a while back and really want to sell after it gives me a decent profit. Holding silver long term is enough metal for me.

Oh (and shoot me down), but i notice that btc is also up.

[Loki]

3 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Not sure I follow?

A macro guy on twitter. Shit hot on macro. Abysmal on short term. Every time he's tweeted about the PMs it's dived shortly after

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, JMD said:

Was it you Democorruptcy that wrote on here that you had bought more of the Big-C when it went lower last year? I am seriously underwater with them, but confess am not brave enough to buy more. However, if this thread's energy thesis is 100% on the button, and this is a '...bargain buy', i really-really probably should.

I've bought and sold at a profit a few times. Last one buying low 30's selling at 50 this year. Overall though if I sold my holding today I would be down on them, due to a technical error, otherwise known as a fuck up. I was going to buy some in both my ISA and SIPP earlier this year but somehow finished up buying twice as many as intended in my SIPP. Then the price dropped and I got stuck with them as I don't like to sell at a loss.

[Froggy2000]

Thinking about additional sectors to focus on, in order to add more diversification to oil, telcos, silver etc.  What about agriculture?  Could this be the ultimate decomplex trade/inflation hedge?  

On the demand side we have a (still just about) growing population that would love to eat more meat if it could afford to.  On the supply side we have ecological issues such as soil erosion, and demand from biofuels will come back if oil heads above $60/70.

Potash is of course one way.   But what about more direct investment in agricultural land?  

The UK seems out of the question, since farmland here is boosted in price based on subsidies and lifestyles of the rich etc, but what about other investor friendly jurisdictions with lots of land like the USA, Canada, Australia?

Are there investment funds for this? Or would it be direct purchase only?

Apologies if this has been discussed already, but I couldn't find much looking through the thread.

Interested to hear peoples thoughts!

[Ma2]

18 minutes ago, Froggy2000 said:

  But what about more direct investment in agricultural land?  
 

I have the following in my watchlist, they have been at some good prices but I keep missing my targets as have to get approval at work to trade. I'd like a few plays on woodland too and some of these hold both.

ABF (Sugar amongst other things..Primark!)

LAND (Agri REIT)

GHE (Alternative asset mgmt)

BG (farm all the way to consumer goods)

CAM (crops, forestry)

Be good to hear of any others

[Ma2]

Got an email from the school today, the Government introducing a new programme trying to boost it's economics service. Interesting you only neeed a few GCSEs to apply for the degree and apprenticeship. Hopefully they get a bit of real life experience before they start to make policy for us

The lad wants to be a tattoo artist though... Told him this would be a good thing to fall back on, then realised just how old I sounded

"Applications will be opening on 14th December 2020 for the Degree Economist Apprenticeship Programme with the Government Economic Service. 

With 70+ vacancies available, this is a brilliant opportunity to work in a central government department or agency on some of the most important social, environmental and economic issues our country faces."

WHY WORK WITH US?

Extremely varied opportunities leading to a wide range of careers, such as journalism, analysis and policy advisory

Study for your economics degree at the University of Kent, with quality teaching and world-leading academics

[Noallegiance]

12 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

Got an email from the school today, the Government introducing a new programme trying to boost it's economics service. Interesting you only neeed a few GCSEs to apply for the degree and apprenticeship. Hopefully they get a bit of real life experience before they start to make policy for us

The lad wants to be a tattoo artist though... Told him this would be a good thing to fall back on, then realised just how old I sounded

"Applications will be opening on 14th December 2020 for the Degree Economist Apprenticeship Programme with the Government Economic Service. 

With 70+ vacancies available, this is a brilliant opportunity to work in a central government department or agency on some of the most important social, environmental and economic issues our country faces."

WHY WORK WITH US?

Extremely varied opportunities leading to a wide range of careers, such as journalism, analysis and policy advisory

Study for your economics degree at the University of Kent, with quality teaching and world-leading academics

It must be wonderful to charge people to get on board your very own scapegoat production line.

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

It must be wonderful to charge people to get on board your very own scapegoat production line.

More bureacratic top down economic diktats, joy!

 

 

[Ma2]

8 minutes ago, Noallegiance said:

It must be wonderful to charge people to get on board your very own scapegoat production line.

The only reason I looked at it was that in this hybrid degree apprenticeship you don't pay the tuition fees! Anyway bit off topic sorry.. but the details on this department made me chuckle...

"The Government Economic Service is the professional body for economists in the UK civil service. Founded in 1964, you will be part of a greatly respected organisation.

The Civil Service helps keep the UK prosperous and secure, supporting the government in implementing their commitments and delivering high-quality services for the public.

The Government Economic Service Degree Apprenticeship Programme (GES-DAP) is relevant to all central government departments and agencies. Many are already committed to recruiting apprentices through the programme, including HMRC, HM Treasury, Department for Work and Pensions, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, the Home Office, Department for Education, and the Department for Transport.

We employ over 420,000 people from across the UK. Our core values are integrity, honesty, impartiality and objectivity, and we are committed to recruiting people from a range of different backgrounds."

[Chewing Grass]

30 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

The lad wants to be a tattoo artist though... Told him this would be a good thing to fall back on, then realised just how old I sounded

Tell him doing tattoos is so old hat plus he would have to deal with a steady stream of mongs.

To be truly creative and manly he needs a welding apprenticeship then the art can be a lucrative and stunning sideline.

More at link below.

https://www.boredpanda.com/welder-spends-hundreds-of-hours-turning-metal-into-stunning-art/

[Noallegiance]

The GES-DAP? Oh.

[Don Coglione]

us

1 hour ago, Ma2 said:

The lad wants to be a tattoo artist though... Told him this would be a good thing to fall back on, then realised just how old I sounded

Surely tattoo removal would offer a far more lucrative future?

[Ma2]

37 minutes ago, Knickerless Turgid said:

Surely tattoo removal would offer a far more lucrative future?

He wanted to join the Navy before the tattooist idea so let's see what he wants to be next week

[Yadda yadda yadda]

13 minutes ago, Ma2 said:

He wanted to join the Navy before the tattooist idea so let's see what he wants to be next week

We could well be at peak tattoo. By the time your lad is 25 it will seem like every 45 year old fogie is covered in fading tattoos.

They are not exactly counter culture, rebellious or individualistic already.

I could very well be wrong on this.

[leonardratso]

soon igor, soon. I will also own centrica soon.

My huge outlays will break their backs when i declare ownership.

Im of the theory as per red dwarf, lister had a few pence left over in a post office account before the big freeze and when he was revived due to compounding he owned 98% of the galaxies wealth.

Course ill have to wait 3 million years. But im in no rush.

[Green Devil]

2 hours ago, Chewing Grass said:

Tell him doing tattoos is so old hat plus he would have to deal with a steady stream of mongs.

To be truly creative and manly he needs a welding apprenticeship then the art can be a lucrative and stunning sideline.

More at link below.

https://www.boredpanda.com/welder-spends-hundreds-of-hours-turning-metal-into-stunning-art/

I like this one. Wow.

 

 

[planit]

3 hours ago, Froggy2000 said:

Thinking about additional sectors to focus on, in order to add more diversification to oil, telcos, silver etc.  What about agriculture?  Could this be the ultimate decomplex trade/inflation hedge?  

On the demand side we have a (still just about) growing population that would love to eat more meat if it could afford to.  On the supply side we have ecological issues such as soil erosion, and demand from biofuels will come back if oil heads above $60/70.

Potash is of course one way.   But what about more direct investment in agricultural land?  

The UK seems out of the question, since farmland here is boosted in price based on subsidies and lifestyles of the rich etc, but what about other investor friendly jurisdictions with lots of land like the USA, Canada, Australia?

Are there investment funds for this? Or would it be direct purchase only?

Apologies if this has been discussed already, but I couldn't find much looking through the thread.

Interested to hear peoples thoughts!

There could be the first DOSBODS fund - DOSBODS Farmland Inv Plc

 

I would invest just because of the name

*Could include carbon capture woodland

[JMD]

28 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Allow me to bring this discussion back on topic (after all, i have much atoning to do)...  That sculpture reminds me of the hawk/serpent motif used for Chris Cole's Dragon Portfolio!!.. its not is it??

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Froggy2000 said:

Thinking about additional sectors to focus on, in order to add more diversification to oil, telcos, silver etc.  What about agriculture?  Could this be the ultimate decomplex trade/inflation hedge?  

On the demand side we have a (still just about) growing population that would love to eat more meat if it could afford to.  On the supply side we have ecological issues such as soil erosion, and demand from biofuels will come back if oil heads above $60/70.

Potash is of course one way.   But what about more direct investment in agricultural land?  

The UK seems out of the question, since farmland here is boosted in price based on subsidies and lifestyles of the rich etc, but what about other investor friendly jurisdictions with lots of land like the USA, Canada, Australia?

Are there investment funds for this? Or would it be direct purchase only?

Apologies if this has been discussed already, but I couldn't find much looking through the thread.

Interested to hear peoples thoughts!

Personally, i found the farming sector too difficult. So i went the 'easy route' - potash/fertilizers (lots of these mentioned if you search back through blog), plus these timber reits/funds looked good to me: Weyerhaeuser, Rayonier, Acadian timber, Western Forest products.

Note, for entertainment purposes only, definitely not investment advise.

[Ash4781b]

Uk postage stamps aren’t legal tender are they ? 

“The cost of a first class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January, Royal Mail has announced.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052

[DurhamBorn]

14 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Uk postage stamps aren’t legal tender are they ? 

“The cost of a first class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January, Royal Mail has announced.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052

Lovely to see RM doing a tobacco,increase prices faster than sales falls because nobody else is joining that market.Price increases above inflation was part of the buy case.We got first tranche too early but into big profits now on it.Some of the bottom ladders were nuts prices.

Its almost like a tech company the way it just keeps going up and up,

Agriculture is hard to play,but i was very pleased to back the truck up for Nutrien and Mosaic during the crash.Iv sold a lot of Mosaic on a treble though and put into the oilies at the recent bottom.Iv sold no Nutrien though and wont be.

 

[Bobthebuilder]

21 minutes ago, Ash4781b said:

Uk postage stamps aren’t legal tender are they ? 

“The cost of a first class stamp will rise by 9p to 85p on 1 January, Royal Mail has announced.”

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-55150052

My wife inflation proofed us a few years ago when a firm she was working for went bust, she came home with thousands of stamps. Enough for a lifetime maybe, she is a good lass.

[Castlevania]

4 hours ago, Ma2 said:

I have the following in my watchlist, they have been at some good prices but I keep missing my targets as have to get approval at work to trade. I'd like a few plays on woodland too and some of these hold both.

ABF (Sugar amongst other things..Primark!)

LAND (Agri REIT)

GHE (Alternative asset mgmt)

BG (farm all the way to consumer goods)

CAM (crops, forestry)

Be good to hear of any others

I own a small amount of Cresud. 

https://www.cresud.com.ar/index.php?lng=en

They own farms in South America, as well as a load of equity stakes in other related companies. It’s all a bit murky (not helped by doing all their financial reporting in ARS). It’ll either go to zero or I’ll make a lot.