Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Green Devil said:

Google Margin Calls.

I think it starts with the ALGOS........they smell the 4 riders coming OR they sense the need for more stimulus, yeah we get margin calls along the way but they're just an effect not a cause

Dunno.... I'm overthinking it, trade what you see  and don't forget Papa Buffett when the time is right......

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, dnb24 said:

whereas FED are still in positive territory

I don't think this is true, they're all cunts see the tree above ...

NO seriously, they've been persuing NIRP and ZIRP for years it started with the BOJ, the ECB are no worse than the FED.......I have a graph somewhere....it's a 'race to the bottom' we're all fooked...

RBS, HBOS* is as bad as Deutsche BUT the Brits like to make out Krauts and other euro wankers are the cause of all evil.....

*maybe not in terms of derivatives but they went bust in 2007, I remember cos I was fooking there!!!

edit: CBA looking for the graph, google central bank balance sheets.......I do recall Draghi getting upset when yuro hit 1.4 to the $ so maybe it's coming again.....SELL the bejesus out of it there.....look for big shorts cable at 1.4 too 

edit MAY 2014 Draghi.....then the yuro dumped it's arse in the space of 10 MONTHS!!

ok back in 2017 the ECB was ahead......the FED has gone into hyperdrive since then but happy to be proven wrong.....come on chaps get your graphs out for the girls 

 

[nirvana]

Look closely for the terrorists....christ I'm on a roll with pics today, must have been on the loopy juice again

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, dnb24 said:

Sorry BM, I may of confused you- my understanding is the EU is sitting on a derivative/debt crisis. As the DXY falls, the euro and other currencies will increase. 
As the ECB has been printing like crazy for past 5+ years, now the FED are doing the same the ECB will have nowhere to go/levers to pull as the euro heads higher with dollar falling. ECB is already using negative rates- how much more negative can they go (whilst sitting on zero growth=deflationary risk), whereas FED are still in positive territory- so still with ammunition.

I believe that stronger euro sees import prices driven down therefore commodities reduce in price = deflationary effect.

exports are reduced - on top of worst downturn on record for EU= deflationary effect.

Within the EU there is internal devaluation taking place, and has been for years - can be seen with the huge unemployment across Spain and Italy- this again has a deflationary effect as disposable incomes are in serious decline. A sudden sharp shock with euro strengthening = deflationary effect.

Debt- the erosion of debt is via inflation, if the EU sees significant deflation- the debt becomes even more unmanageable. 

As insurance company’s in Europe are balls deep in inflation derivatives I see the above causing a significant dislocation and insurance companies hitting the skids, having a huge knock on effect on the European banks.

Next year there should be a lot of interest in betting on "Which country will be first to leave the Euro?".

[Harley]

Did you know that across 30 exchanges the number of companies with a market cap of £1bn or over, a dividend yield of 3% or over, a debt to equity ratio of 75% or less, and a current ratio of 0.9 or over is about: 253 or about 8% of the available common stocks!

Dear Santa......

 

 

[sancho panza]

21 hours ago, Loki said:

Yup 

Yeah it is tepid.I love a lot of kaplans work and one of the things he always pushes-and rightly so-is only buying when things are cheap ie good value in terms of risk/reward..Much as I'm in melt up club,I sold some goldies in August and have yet to rebuy.That fundamental element is jsut missing here.

I did redeploy some of that into BT/Vod and more oilies but both of those sectors now offer a lot less value than a month ago.

One option here is to maybe use call options to introduce some leverage to a trade on barrick which is middling value.Otherwise I see BVN sub $12 and NCM sub $18(doesn't offer so much upside but not much downside) as ok buys,dyor natch.OGC was recently near $1-50 where I'd have averaged down but got permission for it's Phillipines project.

[Loki]

Thanks @sancho panza I will have a look into call options, I know a little about them but not much

[Noallegiance]

Things behind the curtain must be utterly fucked. It's UBI and QE as far as the eye can see. Say au revoir to your currency.

[DoINeedOne]

41 minutes ago, Harley said:

Did you know that across 30 exchanges the number of companies with a market cap of £1bn or over, a dividend yield of 3% or over, a debt to equity ratio of 75% or less, and a current ratio of 0.9 or over is about: 253 or about 8% of the available common stocks!

Dear Santa......

 

That Grant Williams and Anthony Deden interview i have mentioned a few times had something similar around 53:00 mark 

 

 

[DoINeedOne]

 

[TNS]

Vodafone almost at 125, good buy point ?

[The Idiocrat]

39 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

 

My main client is a tech subsidiary of Toyota. They’re exploring everything and developing a lot of great stuff, but are also realistic. An impressive organisation, although rather bureaucratic. They know their shit.

[Loki]

Just now, The Idiocrat said:

My main client is a tech subsidiary of Toyota. They’re exploring everything and developing a lot of great stuff, but are also realistic. An impressive organisation, although rather bureaucratic. They know their shit.

I love the way they tend not to jump on every new wanky technology and stick with what works. 

[The Idiocrat]

Just now, Loki said:

I love the way they tend not to jump on every new wanky technology and stick with what works. 

Yeah, they’re sort of cautiously progressive. Their hybrid stuff is of course great, and the full-on EVs are coming next year (with Subaru too), but they don’t get caught in hype. Their attention to detail is off the scale though, and they’re good for a drink on a night out!

[nirvana]

ok I was wrong, hadn't realised the ECB had been buying so much recently, anyway, the FED are the best liars cos Bernanke and Yellen said they would reduce the balance sheet and the smartarses knew they were lying......and I think they even said that in front of the Senate

All bankers are liars but some bankers are bigger liars than others.....

Anyway moving on, anyone doing 'hedging strategies'? I don't want to know about call/put straddle option.....

Simple hedging for gamblers  @Democorruptcyyou understand gambling, do you do any 'hedging'?

cheers

PS congrats ECB.....WINNERS! 

EDIT: actually that chart is priced in USD soooo with the Euro appreciating in value so much, the FED are actually making Europe look a lot worse than it is!!! 

[nirvana]

1 hour ago, Cattle Prod said:

4,400 target on the S&P for mext year

HIGHER!!! look at the chart above, the money printing is going parabolic so will the stock market......

BK might be postponed for another year at this rate?? 

[TNS]

4 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

HIGHER!!! look at the chart above, the money printing is going parabolic so will the stock market......

BK might be postponed for another year at this rate?? 

Hope so, just got my voda buy filled at 125 !

[sancho panza]

21 hours ago, Hunty said:

HOC 196p

Xmas gift

From what I've seen there's a 15% holding looking for a new home.I sold HOC in aug/sept around the 2-30 level.It's underperformed FRES from bottom to top imho.

Having said that,when you have big family holdings like with BVN then they tend to have a good grip on the political/social issues that can constrain growth.One of teh more learned miner punters eg @Majorpain @kibuc might have something more elevating.I think I'd buy back around 175 level.

[nirvana]

13 minutes ago, TheNickos said:

Hope so, just got my voda buy filled at 125 !

careful what you wish for, it'll all end in tears......

Royal Mail was the one, buy of the year at 125.......I cry everytime I look at the share price cos I skillfully sold on the way down and I didn't BTFD .....nudging £3.50 they were yesterday......you don't need any divis with returns like that 

edit: they hit 352 this am 

[TNS]

I plan to hold for next 5-10 years as the cycle moves forward so hopefully it'll be worth it in the end!

[DoINeedOne]

WTF

[sancho panza]

23 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

My dollar call is for 88,but 85 is also in play if no BK hits.Really pleased with the call down to 88 when it was 100 and it seemed everyone was a bull then.

Weakening dollar from around here down to 85 is putting the EU area at systemic risk as the Euro gains strength.Euro area needs the FED to QE much more than the Euro area.Instead of simply buying bonds the Euro area needs a massive boost to fiscal spending to lift GDP before they end up owning and even larger percentage of total debt.

Must say, I've sat on the sidelines and watched your DXY call develop nicely.Putting my neck on the line-for once-I defnitely see 85 and possible sub 80.

Like I say DB kudos for this call from months and months backl.Bloke wortking with computer and with pen and paper beats msot of Wall St......and to be fair,you've trumped Kaplan too as @Cattle Prod was alluding.

5 hours ago, dnb24 said:

Sorry BM, I may of confused you- my understanding is the EU is sitting on a derivative/debt crisis. As the DXY falls, the euro and other currencies will increase. 
As the ECB has been printing like crazy for past 5+ years, now the FED are doing the same the ECB will have nowhere to go/levers to pull as the euro heads higher with dollar falling. ECB is already using negative rates- how much more negative can they go (whilst sitting on zero growth=deflationary risk), whereas FED are still in positive territory- so still with ammunition.

I believe that stronger euro sees import prices driven down therefore commodities reduce in price = deflationary effect.

exports are reduced - on top of worst downturn on record for EU= deflationary effect.

Within the EU there is internal devaluation taking place, and has been for years - can be seen with the huge unemployment across Spain and Italy- this again has a deflationary effect as disposable incomes are in serious decline. A sudden sharp shock with euro strengthening = deflationary effect.

Debt- the erosion of debt is via inflation, if the EU sees significant deflation- the debt becomes even more unmanageable. 

As insurance company’s in Europe are balls deep in inflation derivatives I see the above causing a significant dislocation and insurance companies hitting the skids, having a huge knock on effect on the European banks.

Super post .Really made me think through the process of teh weaker dollar move and what will follow for the euro.Because I work £/$ mainly,I forget to think on the eurozone much.

2 minutes ago, TheNickos said:

I plan to hold for next 5-10 years as the cycle moves forward so hopefully it'll be worth it in the end!

I thought the same,re VOD.125 is a buying point.we've got some at 145 and 100,given how much BT has risen,more Vod it is.

[Hunty]

19 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

From what I've seen there's a 15% holding looking for a new home.I sold HOC in aug/sept around the 2-30 level.It's underperformed FRES from bottom to top imho.

Having said that,when you have big family holdings like with BVN then they tend to have a good grip on the political/social issues that can constrain growth.One of teh more learned miner punters eg @Majorpain @kibuc might have something more elevating.I think I'd buy back around 175 level.

A nice buy HOC on Monday ~ 1.92.

Buyers returning, market turning to rising Silver/Gold prices and as USD falls we will see additional benefits with this UK Company. I see the Dovish Fed and further USA Govt stimuli on rising jobless no's. Will help the SP further. A very good opportunity at this share price now. GBP Silver now up to 2.78% today alone.

Would hope to see it at 3 when silver hits 30.

Next six weeks maybe.

 

[sancho panza]

@Cattle Prod

like you said soemtime back

 

 

[nirvana]

7 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

WTF

it was foretold circa 2008