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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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I'm watching out for inflationary pressures surfacing in news reports about other stuff.  Here's a beauty: the focus is on 'made in Australia fuck yeah' but the real message is what we have all been talking about re supply chains:

 

"Well known Australian brand R.M. Williams is looking to source its leather from Australia, recently its been imported from France and New Zealand.
Chief executive Raju Vuppalapati told The Sydney Morning Herald supply chains were becoming "complicated" and the company was exploring opportunities of establishing its own tannery.
Let’s hope they start making all their products back in Australian not just the boots"
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1 hour ago, wherebee said:

I'm watching out for inflationary pressures surfacing in news reports about other stuff.  Here's a beauty: the focus is on 'made in Australia fuck yeah' but the real message is what we have all been talking about re supply chains:

 

"Well known Australian brand R.M. Williams is looking to source its leather from Australia, recently its been imported from France and New Zealand.
Chief executive Raju Vuppalapati told The Sydney Morning Herald supply chains were becoming "complicated" and the company was exploring opportunities of establishing its own tannery.
Let’s hope they start making all their products back in Australian not just the boots"

Little things like that show the road ahead dont they.We need to really think about the affects because they are huge.Im working a a big multi-national who have very complex supply lines.We make all the big expensive bits outselves but its the thousands of smaller parts causing the trouble.We have see out lines down 3 times in two weeks for the lack of a small gasket.

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6 hours ago, Loki said:

$900b stimulus agreed

and yet futures are heavily down :S

 

everyone-has-a-plan-until-they-get-punched-in-the-mouth.jpg

DAX just shat it's arse +100 in less than 30 minutes

Do you see my some folk trade CFDs now? :Jumping:

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Looks like the FTSE is in for a beating today

Think the markets were disappointed by the size of the stimulus, were the Dems not after $3 trillion plus at one point?

Could be another opportunity to add this week, if there are more scare stories on the new UK virus

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30 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I remember roaming around empty hospitals with patients and coming home and messaging you for confirmation that you were seeing the same thing.Defintiely mademea realsie something was afoot.I remember during March/April and soemtimes we didn't turn a wheel till midnight.Loads of crews but no jobs.Easiest time I've ever known in the service as we normally get smashed from start to finish.

I heard the same thing about being bored from the odd A&E consutant I know.I was going in with patients into A&E and handing over to them instead fo teh nruses because they were sat there doing nothing reading their phones.

Of late we've started to see the fall out from lockdown.I know that, as you've confirmed,many operations including curative cancer operations eg IvorLewis procedure were canned.Now the reality is that those patients aren't going tog get better while they wait are they?

I was speaking to a cardiologist a while back and was asking her about the drop in admisions through A&E and she basically said that a lot of people had been scared to come in and would suffer long term damage for not doing so.

One final thing and I don't know if I've mentioned this before  DNB I was speaking to a an officer at work who has a friend(A&E consutlant) who had been flicking through chest x rays looking for covid scarring on lungs and found a Chinese migrant labourer with covid scarring back in November.Have I mentioned this to you before????What have you heard?

 

No you didn’t mention the scarring on X-ray before, the radiologists I’ve spoken to did mention seeing some atypical pneumonia’s in late Dec and as I mention we had first “confirmed case”  in early Jan. 

The weird and wonderful started coming through with us about 4-5 weeks post initial lockdown- remember one lady coming in suffering from temporal arteritis - had symptoms for 3 weeks, only attended a&e as was now blind, obviously never going to get sight back now- many stories like that (she would have recovered if seen within 1st week and given basic steroids). Report from GOSH with 1500% increase in Infant Head trauma cases in first 6 weeks of lockdown, St George’s reporting doubling of still birth rate in their hospital etc etc. 

From a stats perspective- death rates increased in UK from 2010ish onwards and this year looks very normal, in fact could be less than last year! USA death rate increase is same as last year and less than 2017, so I sit with SP in that the people behind this are capricious bastards. 
Still, with DBs direction and this threads knowledge my HL account  is up 35%, I’m ready for the next 10 years with knowing the direction of travel, just have to get through this bollocks first.

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Democorruptcy
1 hour ago, Boon said:

Looks like the FTSE is in for a beating today

Think the markets were disappointed by the size of the stimulus, were the Dems not after $3 trillion plus at one point?

Could be another opportunity to add this week, if there are more scare stories on the new UK virus

You missed Brexit, the more people shares, banks, builders are having a bad day so far.

RDSB 4th quarter results a bit downbeat and the oil price is down, VOD pulled out of the 2bn+ sale of assets in Egypt

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7 hours ago, JMD said:

SP, we don't agree on this do we? My take is that i think it is our 'democratic' system that is at fault, in reality its a modern benign form of feudalism, but how we might start making it more libertarian - which would be my preference - is a difficult nut to crack (maybe tech/Blockchain offers some hope). You however think our MPs incompetent and sociopaths - but if so, wouldn't that equally apply to those medical consultants whose actions/inaction, vis a vis Covid, despite knowing far better, are directly harming their own patients (or are they just following hospital orders!)? Cheap shot on my part perhaps, but the point I'm making is that all individuals work within a system/bubble. Western elected officials of a very similar hue have been repeatedly voted back in for decades. So why should they risk their careers by being radical, especially when their ultimate loyalty is to their party, whatever they would have us beleive. Ok, so In terms of potential solutions, i view the current charade through the lens of systemic failing institutions encompassing all types of policy failings... whether these be political, social, legal. We talk a lot here about economic monetary collapse risk, I would expect/hope that if such an event happened it would also trigger many kinds of other disruption and change. Some positive some negative, but so long as our future leaders don't overstretch and aim for a 'utopia', I think things/institutions, etc, will end up being better than what we currently have to endure. 

I tend to agree to an extent, however what I seen this past year I think there is another layer on top of this that set the direction of travel with a message. For example from a medical perspective- 2 years ago you’d never put someone who is in respiratory failure on a ventilator in a rapid fashion, there would be a work up through various o2 delivery systems.Yet the message came from somewhere, and our icu consultants were putting people on vents straight from their admission. Then there was the message in our hospital of needing 1000 icu beds- that came from somewhere and was intentional to cause panic, as within a week managers were told we’d keep beds as they were. A big one for me was sitting on a hospital management board, our hospitals ICU couldn’t staff enough beds in early April, someone mentioned that the big central London hospital nearest to us had 100 free ICU beds! Still transferring patients wasn’t an option. A message needed to be sent that hospitals couldn’t cope. 
I do agree though that the societal, political and economic qualities of the populace are what drive the direction of travel. 

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2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Little things like that show the road ahead dont they.We need to really think about the affects because they are huge.Im working a a big multi-national who have very complex supply lines.We make all the big expensive bits outselves but its the thousands of smaller parts causing the trouble.We have see out lines down 3 times in two weeks for the lack of a small gasket.

https://www.constructionenquirer.com/2020/12/21/structural-steel-prices-to-soar-by-nearly-20/

 

Quote

 

British Steel first put the industry on notice in early December for a £30 a tonne New Year rise, blaming raw materials costs and a surge in global steel prices.

But this notice was suddenly withdrawn seven days later.

Now it has come back with a figure that is nearly treble the original planned increase, blaming unprecedented increases in raw materials costs.

 

De-complex theory playing out nicely, although its a shame that they are now Chinese owned!

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7 hours ago, JMD said:

My take is that i think it is our 'democratic' system that is at fault, in reality its a modern benign form of feudalism, but how we might start making it more libertarian - which would be my preference - is a difficult nut to crack (maybe tech/Blockchain offers some hope).

That neatly captures my interest in crypto @JMD, especially bitcoin.

The whole thesis of this thread is that monetary cycles have greater influence on social/political/economic trends and attitudes than most people think.

Taking that as read: how do I vote for monetary policy different from the one being forced down my throat by the unelected monetary politburos?

Until recently, I couldn't and I would have reluctantly agreed with DB's philosophy of focusing on what *can* be controlled.

Then Bitcoin happened. Taking a position in Bitcoin is - in part - my way of voting against monetary communism. My hope is that enough like-minded souls do the same and consign Central Banking to history, where it belongs.

In the meantime, my personal battle is to keep that idealism in check when it comes to preserving wealth for my family. And that is one of the main reasons I value this contrarian community, because it constantly challenges my congnitive biases and helps me think about diversifying in the right way.

So my thanks to you all, and may the Great Solstice Conjunction portend the showering of Mad Gainz on every one of us in the coming Roaring 20's.

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geordie_lurch
10 hours ago, Loki said:

Err guys :ph34r:

Yes @Loki I was at least a week early calling these drops but I did put my money where my mouth was so to speak and rotated out of some things that has made over 25% recently and these are now at least 15% down from those prices :P My best money maker this year was selling some Merian Gold and Silver which I also managed to take 20% or more profits a couple of times in recent months but got back into them on the 16th at 2,002.32 with a good chunk of the cash from from the sale of others as I feel they will be a relatively safe haven for now and they have gone up 7% since I bought them.

I will be looking to get some more BP and some other reflation stocks in the coming weeks and months if they get back down to or near the March lows via a Mini Kahuna or the BK :Passusabeer:

Oh and I also want to say MASSIVE thanks to @DurhamBorn and all in the thread as it was only via this thread that I finally gained the confidence to start my first stocks and Shares ISA to try and protect myself for the future :Beer:

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3 minutes ago, geordie_lurch said:

Yes @Loki I was at least a week early for these drops but I did out my money where my mouth was so to speak and rotated out of some things that has made over 25% recently and these are now at least 15% down from those prices :P My best money maker this year was selling some Merian Gold and Silver which I also managed to take 20% or more profits a couple of time in recent month but got back into them on the 16th at 2,002.32 with a good chunk of the cash from from the sale of others and they have gone up 7% since I bought them.

I will be looking to get some more BP and some other reflation stocks in the coming weeks and months if they get back down to or near the March lows via a Mini Kahuna or the BK :Passusabeer:

The joy of rebalancing!

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ThoughtCriminal
1 hour ago, dnb24 said:

I tend to agree to an extent, however what I seen this past year I think there is another layer on top of this that set the direction of travel with a message. For example from a medical perspective- 2 years ago you’d never put someone who is in respiratory failure on a ventilator in a rapid fashion, there would be a work up through various o2 delivery systems.Yet the message came from somewhere, and our icu consultants were putting people on vents straight from their admission. Then there was the message in our hospital of needing 1000 icu beds- that came from somewhere and was intentional to cause panic, as within a week managers were told we’d keep beds as they were. A big one for me was sitting on a hospital management board, our hospitals ICU couldn’t staff enough beds in early April, someone mentioned that the big central London hospital nearest to us had 100 free ICU beds! Still transferring patients wasn’t an option. A message needed to be sent that hospitals couldn’t cope. 
I do agree though that the societal, political and economic qualities of the populace are what drive the direction of travel. 

As someone who has followed the covid saga very closely since February and saw big holes in the narrative even then, I have to say that what you've said is both astonishingly and at the same time unsurprising. 

 

This isn't about a virus, whatever it's ultimately about. 

 

Anyway, I'm derailing thread so apologies. 

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geordie_lurch
1 minute ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

As someone who has followed the covid saga very closely since February and saw big holes in the narrative even then, I have to say that what you've said is both astonishingly and at the same time unsurprising.

This isn't about a virus, whatever it's ultimately about.

Anyway, I'm derailing thread so apologies. 

No need to apologise on my behalf as I think the more of us that question the 'official' narrative regarding covid and the links to the Great Reset etc whenever and wherever we can the better as it ALL links back to what we are interested in this thread i.e. trying to maintain our current savings etc in an even more uncertain future than most of us we would have dared to imagine only 12 months ago.

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57 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Oil, Stocks crashing. Gold bitcoin flat. Flight to safety starting. 

Gold is anything but flat, you're looking at the wrong timeframe :P

Apologies I'm posting in the wrong thread again xD

Anyway it's all interconnected.....DXY rebounds over 90 and all hell breaks lose :Jumping:

 

Screenshot_2020-12-21_12-19-53.png

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30 minutes ago, ThoughtCriminal said:

Steing down 3c against dollar, 2c against euro 

 

Fun times

easy shorts if you got up at Dawn's crack :D

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8 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

Gold is anything but flat, you're looking at the wrong timeframe :P

Apologies I'm posting in the wrong thread again xD

Anyway it's all interconnected.....DXY rebounds over 90 and all hell breaks lose :Jumping:

 

Screenshot_2020-12-21_12-19-53.png

Im sorry, a chart is totally meaningless without proper x axis timeframe :)

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6 minutes ago, Green Devil said:

Im sorry, a chart is totally meaningless without proper x axis timeframe :)

clue is in my name, 5 min xD.......markets move in waves.....it's surfing the feckers that gets tricky.....

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working woman

 

Re Breakdown in supply chains - I am finding this discussion interesting for numerous reasons.

I work for a large clothing chain,  for a while basic best selling items are not being delivered, whole product lines eg slippers no longer stocked. Customers aren't happy. I just tell customers factories abroad probably closed down due to Covid and may even have gone bust. We also have huge amounts of stock to clear, and no longer have huge deliveries coming in. Either we can't get stock or the Buyers have had their budgets cut as the company is being cautious. Probably both. I also worked for a clothing manufacturer in the past and know about components (fabric, thread, buttons, elastic, packaging etc) and how you can't make something if one key component isn't available.  I have also heard about the shipping container issue. 

Re China Coal/Power shortages - Interesting if China's production is being affected. I have family in Australia and they are not happy about China's attitude towards Australia. China apparently owns a lot of Australia's natural resource  companies - what were Australia thinking?????? My relatives also feel quite vulnerable to China invading. Their energy bills are also already insane compared to ours.

Re Closure of Ferry Ports  - I'm at home today, day off, just received a phone call from my husband - full on Panic mode.  "Quick, get down the shops now and buy some food, the ferry ports are shut" "Oh, also stock up on loo roll".  My response "Loo Roll isn't important, you can use a flannel to wipe your bum :) I then go and check our cupboards and am glad to see the huge sack of rice and and large pack of loo roll I bought on gut feeling a couple of weeks ago.  We also have an allotment and during Lockdown 1, thinking ahead to Brexit and Covid this winter, I also sowed extra winter veg which will last until March.  Lots of parsnios for carbohydrate and Xmas dinner.

Re Stocking up - If I was going to recommend anything for people to stock up on it is shoes. I struggle to buy shoes, only 2 shops stock my size. Last week, I bought a duplicate pair of my everyday winter ankle boots, at sale price, to eventually replace my current ones.  As I put them in my cupboard, I took a look at my other shoes and was glad to see several good practical shoes that will last for years. I  nearly got rid of them recently, but kept them- that gut feeling again. 

I was also please to see my glamorous high heels and fabulous sparkling evening dress ready and waiting to enjoy the Roaring Twenties ahead.

Re Rising Interest Rates. The main spanner in the works for me is I live in a block of flats and have been affected by the cladding issue. We had our EWS1 test carried out last week and are awaiting results. I'm not hopeful as we have some wooden panels, that are hopefully just decorative, and the balcony flooring is wooden slats. The buildings were deemed safe when we bought, but after Grenfell, the Govt changed the building regulations. Having read predictions of rising interest rates on this thread, I tried a few months ago to remortgage onto a 10 year low fixed rate. Due to not yet passing EWS1 the building society said no. Our mortgage is small, and steadily being paid off, so not much of an issue for us if rates are high in 7-10 years, but this is going to be major for the several million flat owners stuck in the same situation, who may be young and have large mortgages. I also know many of my neighbours won't have the cash to pay for the remedial work to the cladding. Being under 18m, we won't get any help from the Govt. As you can imagine, I was not happy to hear that holiday home owners all got 10K due to Covid. They should have got a mortgage holiday. 

Re Lessons learnt from this year:

  • This thread is amazing - thank you to all contributors. 
  • DB has a crystal ball.
  • Covid has had a major impact on  mental health for many people. I have struggled as I am sure many people have. My sister - Covid anxiety due to underlying health issues. My husband is pretty balanced and sane and says he struggles a bit with not being able to plan holidays etc. He said he enjoyed being given permission by the Govt. to do nothing during Lockdown. 
  • Addictions - I am sure Lockdown has bought hidden addictions to the fore. My aunt in Oz (83) loves shopping and as the shops were shut had lots of time to think and unfortunately buried memories of an awful childhood surfaced. She realised she had used excessive shopping and constant busyness to supress these thoughts/feelings. Had to go to the doctors for anti-depressants. I'm sure she isn't the only one.
  • Freedom as a core value - I have always valued freedom and this year it has become more evident it is one of my core values -  freedom to travel, financial freedom, freedom from control and oppression, freedom of thought.
  • Adaptability and Resillience- Being able to adapt is key. It often takes time. I have adapted to this year fairly well, had some stress due to Covid and the cladding issue , and now see 2020 as good mental training for the next 10 years. God help us all. 
  • The British Public - The vast majority were amazing in the early days when we didn't know how bad Covid could be, and quickly adapted.  A minority acted appallingly eg giving supermarket workers a hard time. 
  • Keep yourself healthy. 
  • Keep your finances heathy and diversified.
  • BBC are either incompetant or liars. During Lockdown, they said you could only go out for 1 hr a day for exercise. Not true. The Govt sent a letter to all households, there was no time limit. I wrote and complained to the BBC, no reply.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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