Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[Errol]

[Castlevania]

Intrepid Potash is up 38%? What?

Seems to be genuine (as opposed to HL playing up this time of the afternoon) from an after hours trading update issued yesterday.

[Iamcynical]

16 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

Intrepid Potash is up 38%? What?

Seems to be genuine (as opposed to HL playing up this time of the afternoon) from an after hours trading update issued yesterday.

I just logged on as wondered what had made my isa shoot up in value, it touched a 51% increase briefly. 

[Noallegiance]

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3648033-intrepid-potash-spotlights-strong-price-increases-sees-strong-2021

Now up 46% on the day as at 16:20 GMT

[Sasquatch]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Intrepid Potash is up 38%? What?

Seems to be genuine (as opposed to HL playing up this time of the afternoon) from an after hours trading update issued yesterday.

I've got a small holding in my SIPP. Up quite nicely so far. Also had a real punt with Kore Potash (KP2). Neutral with that one at the moment (but I do have 60,000 shares so anything can happen, up or down )

[sancho panza]

18 hours ago, Viceroy said:

To my basic understanding, if any fund (etf or mlp) needs a K1 form then I steer clear.

 

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/www.barrons.com/amp/articles/mlp-investings-pros-and-cons-51550754048

 

https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/09/k-1-tax-form.asp

 

https://thecollegeinvestor.com/5202/investing-mlps-yields-high-complications/

 

https://www.google.co.nz/amp/s/seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4342555-enbridge-undervalued-returns-like-mlp-and-no-kminus-1

As ever V,many thanks for bringing this to my attention a year or two back.I could be knee deep in aggro for one or two 0.5% holdings otherwise.

What makes this thread stand out really.

21 hours ago, Democorruptcy said:

Alternatively it's hugely more expensive than this time last year.

Where do you see the yield on US 10 yr going at the moment?

I've timed this rough chart off the gold peak,10 yr yield bottom,gold peak in early august.

I'm not seeing the weak dollar trend trend changing yet.We could see GDX move hgiher and gold too.

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Intrepid Potash is up 38%? What?

Seems to be genuine (as opposed to HL playing up this time of the afternoon) from an after hours trading update issued yesterday.

We pciked some up at the old 75 cent price a while back.Running nicely CV

1 hour ago, Noallegiance said:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3648033-intrepid-potash-spotlights-strong-price-increases-sees-strong-2021

Now up 46% on the day as at 16:20 GMT

handt checked today,thanks for the ehads yup.

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, The Idiocrat said:

Thanks DB, I’ll push them and see how it goes. I’m 55 next year, do you think they might be trying to put it off for some reason related to that?

Yes probably mid review,but you want a CETV as quick as you can as they have to honour them for 3 months,they are supposed to give you one if you ask,though its best to have an IFA in place first who has done all the work they can before they ask for a CETV because you only get 3 months,and IFAs struggle to do it in 3 months,then your stuffed.So IFA first,get everything in line and let them get the CETV then.Rough idea is x yearly pension by 35 to 45 times to get rough idea.

[DurhamBorn]

Intrepid another 300% one for the thread since March.Another reflation sector hardly anyone owns or even knows exists that has delivered superb for everyone.Iv been skimming some profits though from them all (apart from Nutrien) and picking up a few GSK.Not a reflation stock,but buying them at £13.40 from stocks that have trebled in 8 months is nice enough.

I enjoyed my usual new years eve tradition today,collecting the big fat divi from Imperial  

 

[The Idiocrat]

22 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Yes probably mid review,but you want a CETV as quick as you can as they have to honour them for 3 months,they are supposed to give you one if you ask,though its best to have an IFA in place first who has done all the work they can before they ask for a CETV because you only get 3 months,and IFAs struggle to do it in 3 months,then your stuffed.So IFA first,get everything in line and let them get the CETV then.Rough idea is x yearly pension by 35 to 45 times to get rough idea.

Thanks DB, I’ll follow that. If I get 35 to 45 it’ll be worth a transfer. Cheers!

[MrXxxx]

7 hours ago, Harley said:

BTW I've recently completed a thorough screen of the international markets.  Some 170 worth looking at (maybe a lot less (c.50) after further deep dives) but most are a bit pricey since the November bounce.  I can post some stats if folk are interested

If you don't mind that would be really helpful, and save me doing the leg work.

[Democorruptcy]

59 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

I've timed this rough chart off the gold peak,10 yr yield bottom,gold peak in early august.

I'm not seeing the weak dollar trend trend changing yet.We could see GDX move hgiher and gold too.

I'm not sure what I'm looking at there and what conclusion I'm supposed to draw.

Is that 10 Yr yield rising plotted against DXY dropping?

[wherebee]

12 hours ago, Errol said:

I've not bothered going in or out. Just buy more regularly.

Would not even consider selling any of it until gold is over $5000 an ounce.

Well, I sold 30k worth and bought 30k of BP at the lowpoint.  I am happier with that as an income generator for the next 10-20 years.

Yes, GDXJ and GDX could jump much higher, but in terms of spreading income over years to minimise tax implications the oilies - thanks to this thread - were preferable for me.

[DurhamBorn]

Noticed above talk of the pipeline companies,the limited partnership ones and have to agree they are a no go area due to the tax problems,its just not worth it for small UK investors.

However there are alternatives.Enbridge of course is the go to one first,but the gas pipeline companies are also looking good.TC Energy is a big player in moving gas and i hold a small amount and would add a few more.

The only reservation with these kind of stocks though is debt load.In a way they have gained hugely from low rates and when rates increase it could mean divi cuts and cash flow diverted to debt repayments.However im not 100% sure how their debts are structured,if they are mainly amortised over the loan length then that would be fantastic.

[Harley]

One reason people may have had difficulty with pension transfers earlier this year:

https://www.ftadviser.com/pensions/2020/03/30/regulator-permits-three-month-pension-transfer-freeze/

PS:  Have I mentioned regulation risks in the past?

[Harley]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

The only reservation with these kind of stocks though is debt load.

https://uk.investing.com/equities/transcanada-corp-ratios?cid=29627

TRP DTE is 156% and its current ratio is 0.51.  Seemingly fair cash flows mind.  So that's my largest general selection problem - the debt impact, or not.

[Harley]

18 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Intrepid another 300% one for the thread since March.Another reflation sector hardly anyone owns or even knows exists that has delivered superb for everyone.Iv been skimming some profits though from them all (apart from Nutrien) and picking up a few GSK.Not a reflation stock,but buying them at £13.40 from stocks that have trebled in 8 months is nice enough.

I enjoyed my usual new years eve tradition today,collecting the big fat divi from Imperial  

 

This is why I probably (time permitting) should also trade rather than just value invest.  That stock would have missed my value criteria on div, cap, and cash flow grounds but would have made a good intermediate term trade.

And I have IMB too but from the days before I moved to value investing.  Another area for me to think about: value versus income.  For now I've decided to freeze such income stocks (i.e. most of my prior portfolio!) and see how the value goes and maybe migrate over to that later.  I have my value screens set up but they are catching very little to none atm, especially after November's run up.  I could loosen my harsh criteria but I did this in the past for my old income portfolio and got creamed when Buffet's tide went out!

But, in the absence of much value atm, IMO this is a traders market, not necessarily a day trader type thing but an intermediate with less focus on the fundamentals and more on the charts and the sell button.

[Harley]

18 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

If you don't mind that would be really helpful, and save me doing the leg work.

This is a tough one for me as I'm torn between my desire to reciprocate, share and discuss and any liability, despite all the caveats.  Plus a lot of my work, good or bad, has required a considerable personal investment. 

Everything I ever say is for discussion purposes only - I desire to hear the maximum numbers of opinions, extensions, alternatives, re-phrasing, etc.  That is, they are more like strawmen.  I cannot help anyone do their own legwork (aka DYOR) but would like to have a discussion to get a better all round result for a common purpose (whoops!).  That is the power of this thread - not as a stock pickers forum but as a place to thrash out ideas and concepts to help such individual picking.  I appreciate you were not asking for individual stocks but my (excessive?) concerns even go to the next level of abstraction!

So walking the fine line I have set myself:

Of my 58 identified "value" stocks (from a week or so back)...

...These are the industries ranked in descending order of the number of international stocks passing my harsh value criteria:

...which maybe shows (inter alia) my focus on low price to tangible book values and other such financial and macro fundamentals.

...and their exchange composition, again in descending order:

...which maybe shows:

. how a UK only universe may be really cramping your success (especially if you want to invest in stocks' primary markets and not via CDIs, etc), except maybe via collective investments such as ETFs, trusts and funds;

. and/or that value is currently dead and we're looking at the bottom of the barrel (apologies to my Russian friends, not necessarily my belief).  MOEX and HKEX are both way ahead but both are probably held down by geo-political concerns;

. and/or that in percentage (of the total available stocks on each exchange) terms, places like the NYSE perform poorly despite their rankings above. 

Based on a lot of work on my part but IMO worth every day of it.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

This is why I probably (time permitting) should also trade rather than just value invest.  That stock would have missed my value criteria on div, cap, and cash flow grounds but would have made a good intermediate term trade.

And I have IMB too but from the days before I moved to value investing.  Another area for me to think about: value versus income.  For now I've decided to freeze such income stocks (i.e. most of my prior portfolio!) and see how the value goes and maybe migrate over to that later.  I have my value screens set up but they are catching very little to none atm, especially after November's run up.  I could loosen my harsh criteria but I did this in the past for my old income portfolio and got creamed when Buffet's tide went out!

But, in the absence of much value atm, IMO this is a traders market, not necessarily a day trader type thing but an intermediate with less focus on the fundamentals and more on the charts and the sell button.

I think this is what people (myself included) find the most difficult, wanting to buy something when there really isn't anything worth buying at the moment r.e value stock wise.

[MrXxxx]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

This is a tough one for me as I'm torn between my desire to reciprocate, share and discuss and any liability, despite all the caveats.  Plus a lot of my work, good or bad, has required a considerable personal investment. 

Everything I ever say is for discussion purposes only - I desire to hear the maximum numbers of opinions, extensions, alternatives, re-phrasing, etc.  That is, they are more like strawmen.  I cannot help anyone do their own legwork (aka DYOR) but would like to have a discussion to get a better all round result for a common purpose (whoops!).  That is the power of this thread - not as a stock pickers forum but as a place to thrash out ideas and concepts to help such individual picking.  I appreciate you were not asking for individual stocks but my (excessive?) concerns even go to the next level of abstraction!

So walking the fine line I have set myself:

Of my 58 identified "value" stocks (from a week or so back)...

...These are the industries ranked in descending order of the number of international stocks passing my harsh value criteria:

...which maybe shows (inter alia) my focus on low price to tangible book values and other such financial and macro fundamentals.

...and their exchange composition, again in descending order:

...which maybe shows:

. how a UK only universe may be really cramping your success (especially if you want to invest in stocks' primary markets and not via CDIs, etc), except maybe via collective investments such as ETFs, trusts and funds;

. and/or that value is currently dead and we're looking at the bottom of the barrel (apologies to my Russian friends, not necessarily my belief).  MOEX and HKEX are both way ahead but both are probably held down by geo-political concerns;

. and/or that in percentage (of the total available stocks on each exchange) terms, places like the NYSE perform poorly despite their rankings above. 

Based on a lot of work on my part but IMO worth every day of it.

Sorry misinterpreted your offer, though you were just going to give a pre-screened list, not stock picks....for that I only rely on one poster here, @DB?...naa, @YRS! :-) :-) :-)

[MrXxxx]

2 minutes ago, MrXxxx said:

Sorry misinterpreted your offer, though you were just going to give a pre-screened list, not stock picks....for that I only rely on one poster here, @DB?...naa, @YRS! :-) :-) :-)

P.s is there anyway the site  sign on can be set up to include something like "I confirm that all stocks mentioned are for entertainment (TSL) and educational (CNA) purposes only, and form no part of a financial advice service, and that includes buying shares in pizza oven manufacturers"

[Harley]

1 hour ago, MrXxxx said:

Sorry misinterpreted your offer, though you were just going to give a pre-screened list, not stock picks....for that I only rely on one poster here, @DB?...naa, @YRS! :-) :-) :-)

Give the man the rod rather than the fish and set him free!

So you could call up say the TradingView.com screener, go to the Russian market, select "Electric Utilities", and apply your own criteria and values, like minimum Market Cap (in roubles), Debt to Equity (DTE), Current Ratio, Price to Book (PTB), Yield, etc and see what comes up.  You could then read up on them and have a look at their cash flows for the last four years to see if they look good.  You could then look at the charts for each to decide on entry points.

There are 132 industries and 39 exchanges in the population, so 5,148 permutations.  I've cut that down to 25 industries in 15 exchanges, so 375 permutations (a 93% reduction!), and then further sorted things by the most populous to give an even better entry.

You're welcome!  

[Harley]

4 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Noticed above talk of the pipeline companies,the limited partnership ones and have to agree they are a no go area due to the tax problems,its just not worth it for small UK investors.

However there are alternatives.Enbridge of course is the go to one first,but the gas pipeline companies are also looking good.TC Energy is a big player in moving gas and i hold a small amount and would add a few more.

The only reservation with these kind of stocks though is debt load.In a way they have gained hugely from low rates and when rates increase it could mean divi cuts and cash flow diverted to debt repayments.However im not 100% sure how their debts are structured,if they are mainly amortised over the loan length then that would be fantastic.

Thanks to all.  Very timely as I was just looking at a Limited Partnership (LP) which I assume is an MLP?

[DurhamBorn]

42 minutes ago, Harley said:

Thanks to all.  Very timely as I was just looking at a Limited Partnership (LP) which I assume is an MLP?

It will be and i would of added a couple but really not worth the tax problems.There are a few that i think are better anyway and normal shares.Buffet has been buying gas pipeline companies.

[Errol]

Tesla reported $2.9B in operating cash flow through the first 3 quarters of 2020, market cap is $668B; Barrick Gold reported $3.7B in operating cash flow during this same period, market cap is $40B. Producing Gold Miners are ridiculously undervalued vs. all other companies.