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Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)


spunko

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https://moneyweek.com/investments/stockmarkets/uk-stockmarkets/602553/what-does-the-brexit-deal-mean-for-your-money?utm_campaign=money-morning-newsletter&utm_medium=email&utm_source=newsletter

"The main point is that there are no tariffs or quotas imposed on goods moving between the UK and the EU. So that stays the same. We do leave the Single Market and Customs Union, so customs checks are now required for goods crossing from the UK into the EU. We'll see how that pans out – there's no obvious disruption as yet, but traffic at this time of year is quieter anyway, even in the pre-Covid days".

So no tariffs or quotas but import duties and VAT (poorly written?)?  What about buying PMs from Europe?  Now UK VAT and/or duties on silver, and gold?

 

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11 hours ago, JMD said:

Anyway, back on topic, and as I have my full allocation of oilies, I note Egypt also has a good chemical industry - so any recommendations - just for fun/not investment advice of course - from those perhaps knowledgeable about the Egypt region would be greatly received? 

You have to be careful of pyramid schemes...

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1 minute ago, Harley said:

What about buying PMs from Europe?  Now UK VAT and/or duties on silver, and gold?

Coininvest were not showing VAT on the checkout screen, but then again they were sending emails in December saying "Don't miss the deadline" so as you imply, who knows?

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Just now, Hardhat said:

FRES up 9% currently...

A fair number of PM miners are popping up on my trading alerts from around the world.  Trading only because of the divs - typically good financials.  Some general miners and oilies too (but often quite small/micro cap).

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2 minutes ago, Loki said:

Coininvest were not showing VAT on the checkout screen, but then again they were sending emails in December saying "Don't miss the deadline" so as you imply, who knows?

They were just doing what they did before - the margin scheme - last time I looked so yes, who knows.  I did wonder if they were just ramping.  But maybe import duties now?  The MW article was less help than saying nothing (i.e. incomplete).

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3 minutes ago, Harley said:

But maybe import duties now

Good point, that would independent of them I think, so they could hold their hands up and say "Sorry, but you're on your own".  Been the case when I've imported stuff from the USA.

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15 hours ago, Yellow_Reduced_Sticker said:
 
Timely Announcement from MR 'Crystal ball' himself:
 
"2021 Forecast: 80% Stock Market Decline"
 
MR Crystal ball... AKA... Contrarian macro strategist David Hunter forecasts the worst stock market downturn in the post-WWII era.
 
He sees the stock market rising in the next few months and then declining 70-80%.
 
This bust will NOT be limited to the U.S., but will be a global deflationary bust.
 
He sees the Federal Reserve will step in and expand the monetary base to $20 trillion leading to high inflation in the years ahead.
 
With the high inflation, he forecasts gold will rise to at least $10,000 and silver to $300. PAGING @Errol
 
Lovely Jubbly, I will be able to buy my last ladders in BP & SHELL on the CHEAP! 
 
I wonder if it will be quick and spectacular as the last crash in March? Anyhoo...Folks get ya spare cash and crash-helmets ready! :ph34r: :D
 

DH seems to be spot-on --  but his timing isn't reliable.

[To be fair, the guy doesn't even claim to have good timing -- just that the usual problem is a wall of wailers saying 'it isn't true'! because he's off by 3 months (say)]

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what's the current thinking on BK timing?

I'm gonna sell everything including my oilies and go all in shitcoins next time :S

edit: dammmnnn, methinks I can't go all in on the SIPP and ISA???

 

giphy.gif

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1 hour ago, Hardhat said:

You have to be careful of pyramid schemes...

I see what you did there Hardhat, I like it, mustafa rethink. (But hmm, are you just referring to Egypt? However your point is still taken).

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VeryMeanReversion
11 minutes ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

what's the current thinking on BK timing?

https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe

Looks like a few months for the SP500 to hit some new highs (PE 40+) then the undershoot to PE 10 (-75%).

It will crash  on October 1st 2021 at 2.45pm when the fifth wave lockdown is announced.    Best to sell at 2.43 to give you some margin.

The FTSE100 CAPE on the other hand is right in the boring middle so that will go above 8000 in the same timescale then drop back down again.

FTSE 100 CAPE 2020

 

I made all this up but it sounds reasonably convincing to me.  I have a newsletter subscription available :)

Disclaimer - I'm loaded up on FTSE stocks (mostly commodities) and have ~15% in PMs.  I'll sell some stocks if FTSE>>8000 but otherwise, just ride it out and collect divis.

 

 

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11 minutes ago, JMD said:

I see what you did there Hardhat, I like it, mustafa rethink. (But hmm, are you just referring to Egypt? However your point is still taken).

To answer your question seriously, I've had some experience in construction there... a lot of the major capital projects are handled by major international civil engineering firms - think Arup, Aecom, Multiplex etc.

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1 hour ago, Loki said:

Been the case when I've imported stuff from the USA

what you buying off the mad yankees out of interest?

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1 minute ago, 5min OCD speculator said:

what you buying off the mad yankees out of interest?

I can't remember what it was now, a tool I think.  Nothing interesting xD

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17 minutes ago, VeryMeanReversion said:

I made all this up but it sounds reasonably convincing to me.  I have a newsletter subscription available :)

I remember Schiller, one of those Profs of eCONomics who likes the sound of his own BS, or at least Barry seems to think so xD

https://ritholtz.com/2011/06/shiller-more-expectations-theory-less-efficient-market-hypothesis/

Bob is far too diplomatic to be blunt, so I will do it for him: Economics failed. The entire profession took a theory that had some value to it, and extrapolated it to the point of magical thinking.

How badly did the economics profession, academics and market pros alike, fail? Classic economic belief systems could not appropriately anticipate in advance or even identify in real time what was happening with the Residential RE/Housing market. They failed to see the Great Recession coming or even the market collapse.

The basis for this failure was the erroneous belief that “efficient markets formed by people holding rational expectations could explain virtually all economic activity.”

That thesis has now been thoroughly discredited. It is still taught in colleges and business schools, which is why I find most MBAs not worth hiring. Frequently, they can be worse than clueless — they are steeped in the bad ideas of long dead economists, and in my profession, that is not a formula for making money.

As history has revealed over and over again, the popular extreme version of EMH is bollocks. Markets can and do generate lots and lots of useful information and price discovery. But their strength derives from the inputs of the crowd. That strength is also their weakness when that crowd turns into a panicky mob.

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Ritholtz wrote at least one book and he has a blog....I'm not saying invest with him but his book looks interesting, recommended by Taleb too..

returns-of-all-asset-classes-2020.thumb.jpg.479bc19a7a2f4828220f235366ee8904.jpg

6354796.jpg

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Transistor Man
32 minutes ago, Loki said:

Anyone know what SUBS RTS means? Substitute something or other?

I have a new separate Repsol line item 

Script dividend, additional shares instead of cash dividend. I think.

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4 minutes ago, Transistor Man said:

Script dividend, additional shares instead of cash dividend. I think.

Thanks that makes sense, I thought it was something like that but couldn't find out for sure on the HL site

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10 minutes ago, Loki said:

Thanks that makes sense, I thought it was something like that but couldn't find out for sure on the HL site

In a few weeks it will disappear and the amount of Repsol shares you own will increase, so take note of how many you have currently 

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2 minutes ago, DoINeedOne said:

In a few weeks it will disappear and the amount of Repsol shares you own will increase, so take note of how many you have currently 

Thanks mate, I'll keep an eye on it

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How much is the Repsol dividend? I know they announced a cut to €0.60 for 2021 but not sure if this payment counts as part of 2020 or 2021. 

By the way does anyone have a good source for finding this info? Repsol and Telefonica’s dividend page on their investor websites are useless.

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Bobthebuilder
23 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

How much is the Repsol dividend? I know they announced a cut to €0.60 for 2021 but not sure if this payment counts as part of 2020 or 2021. 

By the way does anyone have a good source for finding this info? Repsol and Telefonica’s dividend page on their investor websites are useless.

24.45p

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