Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[JMD]

11 hours ago, Hardhat said:

I'm holding or adding oil and telecoms through another crash, but will take profits in PMs and a few other sectors if we hit some of the DaveH meltup targets (or aren't far off).

I've also been taking some cash off the table for a few months, although I have just gambled most of my cash pile on ARB.

Just thought i'd add another financial commentator warning of market bubbles, i particularly like the Evergreen investment outfits sardonic writing style.

Take Profits! - Evergreen Gavekal

..btw Hardhat, is ARB you mention the Argo block chain? If so do you have any particular price target for selling, or do you plan to just hold?

[Noallegiance]

I think all of this chatter we're having is symptomatic of the inflection point DB refers to. I'd say we've certainly reached a critical period of the cycle turn.

AC Milan are about to go in at half time 3-0 up but Liverpool's second half is about to kick off.

[JMD]

15 hours ago, Cattle Prod said:

I'm of the same mind. I told my MP I'm removing myself from the tax net after the latest lockdown vote. Not paying them to imprison me.

I share the same same sentiment as you CP. Have you achieved your retirement wealth target? I'm not (just!) being nosey, but I do recall you saying some time back that if your investment plan continued working as well as it was doing, you might retire early. 

[DurhamBorn]

29 minutes ago, Harley said:

Anyone seen @DurhamBorn recently?  Having a makeover?  Happy to be the bag carrier but only if I can stay at Raoul's gaff for a few weeks!

Iv been on mechanic duty Harley,my heavy duty jump leads and my 15 year old Peugeot have had to fire up my daughter and a few neighbours cars.Iv changed the battery on my daughters and iv changed the coil pack and plugs on my sons partners.Loads of snow up here.My old girl even took 3 turns todays to start,her crank is starting to get a bit sticky,il flush all the oil out in spring,get her filled with some quality oil.

Im also making lots of home make pies today,corned beef and chicken.

Potash has doubled,trebled and more for us now.Telcos have ran up lovely.I think some like BT will consolidate for a while,oilies should continue higher though.Im thinking of jacking in work as well soon.Spend more time on the macro stuff.Maybe we should form a consultancy and pimp ourselves to big companies to provide them a macro road map for their business.Id be interested if anyone wanted to build us a website and do the plugging.

Thread has really come good,and i hope people have done very well out of it.Lots of danger ahead though and we need to be careful here we dont rejoice in our success and become mugs.

If oil over shoots into the $70s+ range that could trigger a BK.The CBs are still printing and im seeing inflation at 3% mid year,my roadmap is showing likely CB QE stops soon after with a few more smaller tranches.Here in the UK the BOE will have to stop by October at the latest.Government will have a big structural deficit still then.

 

[Loki]

4 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

Loads of snow up here.

Now you're just being ridiculously contrarian, I've been told time and time again it's a thing of the past. 

Good on you for helping your neighbours out.  

Can I be public relations head? I think I'd be good at that.

[The Idiocrat]

1 hour ago, Heart's Ease said:

I'll keep an eye out for this broadcast - which might be of interest.

DH gets mentioned a couple of times in the responses.

This is quite extraordinary. There have been no inflationists for years, if not decades, and now it looks like the deflationists are very much in the minority. Quite a turnaround, and much quicker than I expected.

[DurhamBorn]

On the likes of Bp its up to individuals,but including divis i expect the shares to get to £10 in the cycle minimum.It will likely hang around in the £4+ area for a while though.The sector is more about filling gaps and where do people top up if needed.People will be crying for those kind of stocks when inflation starts to run.Those woke bozos running the NEST fund sold average workers holdings in their pensions at £2 a share.

Gas is producing 50% of the UKs energy at the moment.Wind 7%.If we have all electric cars gas demand will double even in the UK and even if we build massive amounts of wind power.We are best placed for wind.Imagine the east.

If anyone wants my oilies they arent for sale,

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

[Hardhat]

46 minutes ago, JMD said:

Just thought i'd add another financial commentator warning of market bubbles, i particularly like the Evergreen investment outfits sardonic writing style.

Take Profits! - Evergreen Gavekal

..btw Hardhat, is ARB you mention the Argo block chain? If so do you have any particular price target for selling, or do you plan to just hold?

Yet Argo Blockchain - I haven't got a huge amount invested, and I'm setting stops every day as I think it could crash at any moment.

I'm up 70% in two days atm (!) If it gets to 100% I will most likely take out my original stake and let it run. I feel I've already missed the "life changing" gains here (it's x10 since Dec 1st) so not being too greedy. I see it as a pure gamble.

[Loki]

@DurhamBorn Out of reps but yup

[Democorruptcy]

1 hour ago, Harley said:

Anyone seen @DurhamBorn recently?  Having a makeover?

I went round to his house last night but his mother said he couldn't play out. As soon as he takes his school uniform off, he has to go do an evening paper round as well as the morning one. Apparently he tipped her a share, she wouldn't say what the name was but it's not done well. He has to pay her back out of the paper rounds money again.

[geordie_lurch]

30 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

On the likes of Bp its up to individuals,but including divis i expect the shares to get to £10 in the cycle minimum.It will likely hang around in the £4+ area for a while though.The sector is more about filling gaps and where do people top up if needed.People will be crying for those kind of stocks when inflation starts to run.Those woke bozos running the NEST fund sold average workers holdings in their pensions at £2 a share.

Gas is producing 50% of the UKs energy at the moment.Wind 7%.If we have all electric cars gas demand will double even in the UK and even if we build massive amounts of wind power.We are best placed for wind.Imagine the east.

If anyone wants my oilies they arent for sale,

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

Thanks as ever  @DurhamBorn for your thoughts here . I top sliced some Shell recently along with some other non oilies and put the cash into BP recently as historically they look they could have larger gains than Shell from here on but I'm trying my best to sit tight on the sector as a whole

[wherebee]

52 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

On the likes of Bp its up to individuals,but including divis i expect the shares to get to £10 in the cycle minimum.It will likely hang around in the £4+ area for a while though.The sector is more about filling gaps and where do people top up if needed.People will be crying for those kind of stocks when inflation starts to run.Those woke bozos running the NEST fund sold average workers holdings in their pensions at £2 a share.

Gas is producing 50% of the UKs energy at the moment.Wind 7%.If we have all electric cars gas demand will double even in the UK and even if we build massive amounts of wind power.We are best placed for wind.Imagine the east.

If anyone wants my oilies they arent for sale,

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

Thanks DB.

I am chopping another tree down tomorrow.

[BurntBread]

Not that it's of much interest, as I'm a complete newbie this year, but here's where I am:

I have somewhat more than 50% of my money in (mostly) re-flation stocks, in the sectors of oil, commodity miners, telcoms infrastructure, PM miners, energy and transports; but also some industrials, and a little consumer. Fairly diversified, but definitely too much in oil for a long-term portfolio. The rest is in cash, waiting for opportunity, or maybe for a deposit on a house, if they become good value.

I'm buying one last slice of oil today, and I then need to have the discipline to sit on my hands, waiting for a possible market crash later in the year. I'll keep my itchy fingers busy by doing some very basic analysis on stocks I would be interested in buying after a crash ... trying to get a view on buying targets and prices. The hope is to build out a more balanced portfolio after the crash.

As I've said before, I don't plan to sell anything, and so if there is a big kahuna, I need to have the psychological resilience to just hold on, and to believe that, despite losses, I mostly bought in at prices I'm happy with. It will be a nail-biting ride, but like a roller-coaster, my strategy is just to try to stay in the seat and not do anything.

Thank you to everyone who has helped me get to the point where I have a view about the future, and a strategy to ride it out. The losses are all mine, but I would be very happy to pay out some of any gains, in beer, at a future meet-up.

Good luck to everybody for what looks set to be a trying year!

[The Idiocrat]

1 hour ago, DurhamBorn said:

Iv been on mechanic duty Harley,my heavy duty jump leads and my 15 year old Peugeot have had to fire up my daughter and a few neighbours cars.Iv changed the battery on my daughters and iv changed the coil pack and plugs on my sons partners.Loads of snow up here.My old girl even took 3 turns todays to start,her crank is starting to get a bit sticky,il flush all the oil out in spring,get her filled with some quality oil.

Im also making lots of home make pies today,corned beef and chicken.

Potash has doubled,trebled and more for us now.Telcos have ran up lovely.I think some like BT will consolidate for a while,oilies should continue higher though.Im thinking of jacking in work as well soon.Spend more time on the macro stuff.Maybe we should form a consultancy and pimp ourselves to big companies to provide them a macro road map for their business.Id be interested if anyone wanted to build us a website and do the plugging.

Thread has really come good,and i hope people have done very well out of it.Lots of danger ahead though and we need to be careful here we dont rejoice in our success and become mugs.

If oil over shoots into the $70s+ range that could trigger a BK.The CBs are still printing and im seeing inflation at 3% mid year,my roadmap is showing likely CB QE stops soon after with a few more smaller tranches.Here in the UK the BOE will have to stop by October at the latest.Government will have a big structural deficit still then.

 

I might be interested DB, I'll drop you a PM.

[DurhamBorn]

I think its important to look at the roadmap on energy here.These figures are based on my nominal targets not inflation adjusted etc and are taken out to 2050 because thats the net zero target.

Gas will treble in value use and will pass oil in market size,given its only a third of the size now thats a big increase.Oil will fall by 12% but thats much later in the cycle.Plastics doubling will make up for the oil falls being small.

Wind will grow to about 1/3 of gas and 1/3 of oil and wind and solar together will account for around 1/4 of oil and gas use.Blue hydrogen will become huge,maybe 40% the size of gas and 40% of oil,making up some of that big increase in gas use.Carbon capture will be a big winner in this.

Green hydrogen will remain small and a niche area,mostly in Europe.

LNG will becom a third of the gas market roughly.

A big winner in the energy space will be supercapacitor companies.However i havent decided yet how to and what to invest in,something for the thread it maybe look at.

 

[dnb24]

45 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think its important to look at the roadmap on energy here.These figures are based on my nominal targets not inflation adjusted etc and are taken out to 2050 because thats the net zero target.

Gas will treble in value use and will pass oil in market size,given its only a third of the size now thats a big increase.Oil will fall by 12% but thats much later in the cycle.Plastics doubling will make up for the oil falls being small.

Wind will grow to about 1/3 of gas and 1/3 of oil and wind and solar together will account for around 1/4 of oil and gas use.Blue hydrogen will become huge,maybe 40% the size of gas and 40% of oil,making up some of that big increase in gas use.Carbon capture will be a big winner in this.

Green hydrogen will remain small and a niche area,mostly in Europe.

LNG will becom a third of the gas market roughly.

A big winner in the energy space will be supercapacitor companies.However i havent decided yet how to and what to invest in,something for the thread it maybe look at.

 

Muratas have been acquired by CAP-XX- both seem big in Supercap development.

Evans capacitor have contracts with Northrop Grumman 

Maxwells UC has been integrated into Tesla as well as Zhejiang Geely group. 

Skeleton technology supply Kodak, wrights group, brush traction. Skeleton also work with MJR.

Panasonic also

[RJT1979]

What do people think of cheniere lng?

[reformed nice guy]

2 hours ago, DurhamBorn said:

Gas is producing 50% of the UKs energy at the moment.Wind 7%.If we have all electric cars gas demand will double even in the UK and even if we build massive amounts of wind power.We are best placed for wind.Imagine the east.

If anyone wants my oilies they arent for sale,

https://gridwatch.co.uk/

Il have to correct you there DB - if you take into account vehicles, which are >95% ICE, then oil and gas is producing at least 90% of the UKs energy use!

 

[Craig]

44 minutes ago, DurhamBorn said:

I think its important to look at the roadmap on energy here.These figures are based on my nominal targets not inflation adjusted etc and are taken out to 2050 because thats the net zero target.

Gas will treble in value use and will pass oil in market size,given its only a third of the size now thats a big increase.Oil will fall by 12% but thats much later in the cycle.Plastics doubling will make up for the oil falls being small.

Wind will grow to about 1/3 of gas and 1/3 of oil and wind and solar together will account for around 1/4 of oil and gas use.Blue hydrogen will become huge,maybe 40% the size of gas and 40% of oil,making up some of that big increase in gas use.Carbon capture will be a big winner in this.

Green hydrogen will remain small and a niche area,mostly in Europe.

LNG will becom a third of the gas market roughly.

A big winner in the energy space will be supercapacitor companies.However i havent decided yet how to and what to invest in,something for the thread it maybe look at.

 

Good shout on the Aldi passata. Great stuff!

[StrugglingMillennial]

https://publish.twitter.com/?query=https%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fn3ocortex%2Fstatus%2F1346145319575310337&widget=Tweet

Interesting tweet about previous bitcoin price run ups, im starting to think that bitcoin could end up popping shortly before the BK

[Agent ZigZag]

Im glad that gold is off everyones radar and is keeping quiet. It is fascinating watching and learning how weak hands leave a position and are chasing Bitcoin. I have just added to Sibanye and Harmony my two favourites as a short term trade to make some extra cash.

I should post in the Investment section - Retire early, and I will do so in due course to give feed back on how my retirement is going. So far it is great and I highly recommend it. 

 I was unable to take advantage on the falls in March 2020 due to lack of funds for my SIPP so well done to everyone who made good. What I am most pleased with overall , and whilst capital growth has been a bonus, it is is the dividend returns. For me this is number one. These cover all of my expenses and as long as they continue to do so then I am more than happy. .

[DurhamBorn]

40 minutes ago, reformed nice guy said:

Il have to correct you there DB - if you take into account vehicles, which are >95% ICE, then oil and gas is producing at least 90% of the UKs energy use!

 

Well quite,because if all cars went EV today gas would be providing all that electric because however many wind turbines there isnt enough wind.

[DoINeedOne]

14 minutes ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Im glad that gold is off everyones radar and is keeping quiet. It is fascinating watching and learning how weak hands leave a position and are chasing Bitcoin. I have just added to Sibanye and Harmony my two favourites as a short term trade to make some extra cash.

I should post in the Investment section - Retire early, and I will do so in due course to give feed back on how my retirement is going. So far it is great and I highly recommend it. 

 I was unable to take advantage on the falls in March 2020 due to lack of funds for my SIPP so well done to everyone who made good. What I am most pleased with overall , and whilst capital growth has been a bonus, it is is the dividend returns. For me this is number one. These cover all of my expenses and as long as they continue to do so then I am more than happy. .

My thoughts exactly if money keeps chasing Crypto hopefully i can grab some more physical and miners cheaper, I only hold one miner currently as sold the rest whilst my physical i doubt i will sell for many years

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Agent ZigZag said:

Im glad that gold is off everyones radar and is keeping quiet. It is fascinating watching and learning how weak hands leave a position and are chasing Bitcoin. I have just added to Sibanye and Harmony my two favourites as a short term trade to make some extra cash.

I should post in the Investment section - Retire early, and I will do so in due course to give feed back on how my retirement is going. So far it is great and I highly recommend it. 

 I was unable to take advantage on the falls in March 2020 due to lack of funds for my SIPP so well done to everyone who made good. What I am most pleased with overall , and whilst capital growth has been a bonus, it is is the dividend returns. For me this is number one. These cover all of my expenses and as long as they continue to do so then I am more than happy. .

Harmony are the best deep gold miners in the world.Superb company,and fantastic leadership.The also now own most of the gold in South Africa and most of the Uranium.Them and Sibanye of course.

[Wheeler]

1 hour ago, reformed nice guy said:

Il have to correct you there DB - if you take into account vehicles, which are >95% ICE, then oil and gas is producing at least 90% of the UKs energy use!

 

And the majority of domestic heating is still gas I believe. Gridwatch only covers the electricity supply so things are even better for the old fossil fuels.