Credit deflation and the reflation cycle to come (part 2)

[CVG]

7 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

Thank you, and very happy to be disagreed with!  Whatever I buy I will be looking for value, so based on previous posts as well, it looks like I have my answer re Pharma - perhaps a small amount at some point in the future for diversification but not a major part of my allocation. I also started looking into single country ETFs last night and I think that is a direction I like the look of for small exposure to emerging markets. 

It's another rebalancing thing.

You may want to decide that a certain % of your portfolio be in Pharma. Then if Pharma prices slide you'll be forced to rebalance by buying more Pharma to get back to the target %. Selling high. Buying low.

DB was describing the opposite side of rebalancing a little while back where he needed to sell some his high perfoming assets because he was overweight in their % allocation.

[Fully Detached]

11 minutes ago, CVG said:

It's another rebalancing thing.

You may want to decide that a certain % of your portfolio be in Pharma. Then if Pharma prices slide you'll be forced to rebalance by buying more Pharma to get back to the target %. Selling high. Buying low.

DB was describing the opposite side of rebalancing a little while back where he needed to sell some his high perfoming assets because he was overweight in their % allocation.

Yep, thanks - I've been reading about that on Lyn Alden's site. So much damned information to take in and I've only just finished the basic level articles. But that's why I'm going with a rolling plan so that if anything kicks off in the meantime I can at least do something positive rather than be caught like a rabbit in the headlights. I might not actually buy anything for months, but the key is to be ready to.

One of the upsides about the NS&I certs switching to CPI instead of RPI is that they make virtually no money now, so it's not really any great loss to move as much as possible into a shares ISA even if it sits in cash for now. And the fact that I now deliberately work less to stay in the lower rate tax band means that the tax free aspect of them is less advantageous as well.

[Castlevania]

26 minutes ago, CVG said:

It's another rebalancing thing.

You may want to decide that a certain % of your portfolio be in Pharma. Then if Pharma prices slide you'll be forced to rebalance by buying more Pharma to get back to the target %. Selling high. Buying low.

DB was describing the opposite side of rebalancing a little while back where he needed to sell some his high perfoming assets because he was overweight in their % allocation.

Yeah. I need to sell some oil and buy gold miners.

[Harley]

15 hours ago, Fully Detached said:

Obviously understand nobody can or will advise, but I would really appreciate any comments on this post, schoolboy errors pointed out, or things to beware of for example. I’ve been doing a crash course on this thread and also using Lyn Alden’s basic articles, trying to formulate a strategy to protect myself against inflation (and ideally outperform a little as well) – would really appreciate any opinions on this high level overview of my thoughts at this stage. It’s kind of a rolling plan because I have so much more to learn but at the same time I want to be ready to act at all times with different degrees of involvement as my knowledge hopefully grows.

With that, my current allocation is:

65% NS&I Index Linked Certs/ NS&I Cash ISA

15% Land

15% Physical PMs

5% Crypto

My immediate requirement is to get the bulk of the NS&I savings to be at least ready to buy shares with because I know they will not keep pace with real inflation, but I am not yet anywhere close to being able to pick stocks myself. So the plan is:

• Transfer NS&I ISAs to Eqi ISAs – all previous years investments
• Transfer 2021 allowance into Eqi ISAs in next couple of weeks
• Transfer 2022 allowance into Eqi ISAs after April 6th
• Sit in cash for now but use the time to identify sectors that I want to invest in
• Hope for pullback in equities, continue studying like hell…

• If pullback (or rapid inflation) hits before I am ready, invest all in ETFs and trackers
• Later move some into individual stocks when I am more confident
• Later aim for balance of 50% of equities ETFs and Trackers and 50% in individual picks

That plan then would give me an allocation looking something like:

50-60% Equities

5-10% Cash

15% Land

15% Physical PMs

2-5% Crypto

And then lastly, the sectors I am looking at based on comments in this thread are (as percentage of equities investment):

• Oil, Gas, Energy 30%
• Telcos 30%
• Miners 10% (less due to physical PMs)
• Pharma 15%
• Other 15%

I’m interested that Pharma doesn’t seem to get mentioned often in the thread – I would have thought that was a decent bet with vaccination boost programs seemingly a thing of the future and the almost certain physical & mental health impacts of lockdowns? And my “Other” sector would include things like alcohol and tobacco – basically all the things a thoroughly pissed off and miserable society might buy to try to cheer themselves up a bit.

On another note, I am also half tempted to bung about EUR90k into a house in Brittany, so at least we have something we could live in if needed, and then put the rest into equities. Really not sure about that but it’s a thought.

TIA for any comments, appreciate you guys get a lot of these questions but I hope I've done enough groundwork that a gentle nudge here and there to point out any idiocy would be OK.

Nice to see your initial focus on allocations.  IMO, this is a primary imperative, especially atm with all the changes.  Many models to choose from to suit your goals, etc.  Portfoliocharts.com for an in depth study.

I also have NS&I index linked bonds.  What do you intend doing with these?  I'm holding for now given they are no longer available (grandfathered in) but accept they are exposed to the risks of under-reported inflation and currency devaluation.  I erroneously include them in my bond allocation rather than cash as I now interpret these things loosely!  

I'm building up a crypto leg and include this under hard assets, along with PMs, commodities, land, select plant, etc.  Again, I'm trying to interpret the traditional asset classes for the modern age and currently developing circumstances.

I'm in the process of working through my allocations some more, but am now more focussed on the equity leg.  IMO also a good idea to pick a strategy or two here as well and allocate accordingly.  I moved to value (total return) and trading from just pure div income.  I'm now focussed on setting clear allocation targets for each value holding and sector overall as I sometimes struggle to see the wood through the trees.

All the best.

[Harley]

32 minutes ago, CVG said:

It's another rebalancing thing.

You may want to decide that a certain % of your portfolio be in Pharma. Then if Pharma prices slide you'll be forced to rebalance by buying more Pharma to get back to the target %. Selling high. Buying low.

DB was describing the opposite side of rebalancing a little while back where he needed to sell some his high perfoming assets because he was overweight in their % allocation.

Rebalancing.  I don't do enough and it usually costs when I don't.  IMO probably one way to make money, like all such emotionally hard things usually are!

[Harley]

41 minutes ago, Castlevania said:

That Jules fellow properly loves Phillip Morris International. Although what he stated about PMI, they’ve underperformed due to weak EM currencies would also apply to BAT. Should do well if EM currencies strengthen relative to GBP/USD.

I do wonder how the FTSE is placed for such changes in direction.  They claim it's internationally leveraged so should do well with non-US overseas growth, especially in the resources sector.  If so, that would fit the consensus direction of travel.  Plus every dog has its day.  But is it still true?

 

[Fully Detached]

28 minutes ago, Harley said:

Nice to see your initial focus on allocations.  IMO, this is a primary imperative, especially atm with all the changes.  Many models to choose from to suit your goals, etc.  Portfoliocharts.com for an in depth study.

I also have NS&I index linked bonds.  What do you intend doing with these?  I'm holding for now given they are no longer available (grandfathered in) but accept they are exposed to the risks of under-reported inflation and currency devaluation.  I erroneously include them in my bond allocation rather than cash as I now interpret these things loosely!  

I'm building up a crypto leg and include this under hard assets, along with PMs, commodities, land, select plant, etc.  Again, I'm trying to interpret the traditional asset classes for the modern age and currently developing circumstances.

I'm in the process of working through my allocations some more, but am now more focussed on the equity leg.  IMO also a good idea to pick a strategy or two here as well and allocate accordingly.  I moved to value (total return) and trading from just pure div income.  I'm now focussed on setting clear allocation targets for each value holding and sector overall as I sometimes struggle to see the wood through the trees.

All the best.

Yes, the actual allocations will be my first step, then pick funds, then move to 50:50 funds and individual picks, approx 50:50 domestic and foreign. I have no idea how well that's going to work out but it seems like a much better idea than sitting here hoping house prices will drop or that inflation won't rip when as far as I can see the govt are virtually shouting from the rooftops what they intend to do. Enter the index linkers...

Interesting to see your thoughts on these. I actually now consider mine to be "cash", because like you I just don't trust the govt to report inflation anywhere near accurately. In the past I could stomach that a little because the tax exemption made it worthwhile, but not so much now. The only nagging doubt I have is whether at some stage it will suit the govt to report inflation accurately, in which case they would remain great things to have. And like you say, you can't get them any more so once you're out you're out.

I will still have quite a bit left in them once I have transferred the ISAs over and maxxed out this year's and next year's allowance. So maybe I will keep some in the linkers as my Brittany house fund if that is something we decide to do.

FFS all I ever wanted was a house with a garden to grow some roses in. And now I have to sit here playing Warren bloody Buffet. Or Jimmy Buffet as is probably more the case.

[Bricormortis]

16 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

The only nagging doubt I have is whether at some stage it will suit the govt to report inflation accurately, 

 

Pension liability says no.

[Fully Detached]

7 minutes ago, Bricormortis said:

Pension liability says no.

Yep I couldn't think of any reason why it would suit them but that explains why it wouldn't.

[sancho panza]

49 minutes ago, sancho panza said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-03-03/greensill-s-overnight-fall-from-grace-was-months-in-the-making

Greensill’s Overnight Downfall Was Many Months in Making

From the outside, 2020 was bringing validation to the idea behind Lex Greensill’s financial empire.

His eponymous firm was seeking funds at a lofty valuation with the pitch that the pandemic laid bare small suppliers’ need to be paid quickly.

But by the middle of last year, two parallel sets of events were quietly threatening two of the biggest sources of funding that enabled his brand of financial disruption -- eventually bringing the firm to a breaking point.

 

In July, an obscure Australian insurer refused to extend policies covering the loans Greensill made, taking away the security blanket that allowed major investors like Credit Suisse Group AG to get comfortable with his courting clients below their radar. And around the same time, the German regulator BaFin started a probe into his fast-growing bank in Bremen.

 

At issue in both cases was the question of risk, and in BaFin’s case, the amount of it that was tied to another entrepreneur in Greensill’s inner circle, Sanjeev Gupta. He had been an early client and investor in Greensill, and the loans to Gupta’s firms fueled the growth of both men’s conglomerates.

Interviews with more than a dozen people familiar with the matter show how the twin threads unraveled rapidly this week, bringing Greensill’s firm to the verge of collapse. Started a decade ago with a promise of “making finance fairer” -- attracting backers such as SoftBank Group Corp. and advisers like former U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron -- Greensill Capital’s swift spiral now is risking thousands of jobs at borrowing companies, disrupting the supply chains of multinationals and even the U.K. healthcare system.

It has been a stunning comedown for a firm that as recently as last year was touting a valuation of $7 billion. Greensill Capital is planning to start insolvency proceedings in the U.K. as it seeks to sell its operating business to Athene Holding Ltd., the annuity seller backed by Apollo Global Management. And Germany’s financial watchdog shuttered Greensill Bank after asking law enforcement officials to investigate accounting irregularities at the lender.

 

Greensill, whose interest in supply-chain finance stemmed from his early years working on his family’s farm in Australia, carved a niche for himself in a fast-growing business that saw a boost in the years following the global financial crisis more than a decade ago. Banks were pulling back from lending to smaller firms, as regulations around risky lending practices grew increasingly more onerous.

Cameron, Gupta

To lawmakers eager to stimulate a recovery, supply chain finance seemed like the perfect solution. In 2012, then-Prime Minister Cameron announced a supply-chain finance program that was designed to get funding to small companies quicker. Greensill was an adviser to the U.K. government on that program, and in 2017 was anointed as a Commander of the British Empire for his services to the economy.

Greensill had started his own firm in 2011 after stints at Morgan Stanley and Citigroup Inc., later attracting $1.5 billion of investment from SoftBank Group Corp. The firm says it provided $143 billion in financing last year.

Over the years, Greensill has also been closely linked to British-Indian businessman Gupta, the man once dubbed the “savior of steel” by the U.K. press because of his penchant to buy up moribund steel plants.

Greensill’s links to Gupta have roiled other money managers. Long-dated project finance notes tied to Gupta’s GFG Alliance and arranged by Greensill were at the center of an investigation that prompted the suspension of GAM Holding AG’s one-time star Tim Haywood in 2018.

BaFin’s Audit

BaFin last year started a forensic audit of Greensill Bank, charging KPMG with the task, after concerns emerged that too many of the assets on the bank’s books were ultimately tied to the same source: Gupta.

Gupta, a former commodities trader, heads GFG Alliance, a loose collection of entities owned by him and other family members. Much of the business, which spans steel, aluminum and renewable energy, was built at a breakneck pace that saw him spend about $6 billion over a five-year period on a series of deals and investments from Scotland to South Carolina. The targets were largely old, unwanted assets in need of significant investment.

Providing the financial firepower that drove the spree was Greensill’s eponymous firm. Gupta told Bloomberg News in October that Greensill was the company’s biggest lender. Athene isn’t planning to take on assets linked to Gupta, according to people with the matter.

The links between Greensill and Gupta ultimately proved to be the focus of BaFin’s probe. The KPMG probe found irregularities with how Greensill Bank booked certain assets linked to Gupta. One of the most serious findings was that the bank had booked claims for transactions that hadn’t yet occurred but which were accounted for as if they had.

“BaFin found that Greensill Bank AG was unable to provide evidence of the existence of receivables in its balance sheet that it had purchased from the GFG Alliance Group, ” according to a statement from the German regulator.

‘Extensive Advice’

Greensill said in a statement late Wednesday that it had received “extensive advice,” from law firms in the U.K. and Germany, “which informed the way in which the assets were classified.” The company also said that it immediately complied after BaFin advised it late last year and early this year that it didn’t agree with its accounting.

“Greensill Bank has at all times been transparent with its regulators and auditors about its approach to classifying assets and the methodologies for determining such classifications,” a spokesman for the company said by email.

Pressure from BaFin was a factor that prompted Greensill to look for potential buyers for its exposure to Gupta earlier this year. One of the parties that Greensill reached out to was Credit Suisse, people familiar with the matter said.

 

But on the other side of the globe in Australia, separate developments were afoot. In a last-ditch effort to make its insurer extend policies that were due to lapse on March 1, Greensill took Bond and Credit Company, a unit of Tokio Marine Holding, to court. The company warned that losing $4.6 billion in insurance coverage for its 40 or so clients could spark defaults and put 50,000 jobs at risk. But late on Monday a judge in Sydney struck down Greensill’s injunction.

Hours later in Zurich, Credit Suisse suspended its $10 billion family of funds that invested in loans arranged by Greensill, choking off a key source of funding to the companies. The insurance lapse left some debt no longer valued on the strength of the insurer but rather on the underlying borrower, triggering questions on the valuations of the assets.

Greensill Exposure

Credit Suisse's frozen funds tied to Greensill include SoftBank links

Source: Credit Suisse fund reports, positions as of Jan. 21

 

 

Cracks on the value of the loans had started to show last year. Several companies that borrowed through Greensill-backed Credit Suisse funds collapsed, including NMC Health, Agritrade International, and BrightHouse.

The insurance arrangements had given firms like Greensill’s the flexibility to court smaller borrowers that wouldn’t otherwise be able to get investment-grade ratings, with a measure of security that an insurance policy brings. The impeccable credentials also allowed Credit Suisse to sell funds to investors such as pensions and corporate treasurers seeking suitable assets to help boost returns.

It’s not clear why Bond and Credit Company allowed the policies to lapse. In denying Greensill’s injunction to force the insurer to renew the contracts, the Australian judge noted that “despite the fact that the underwriters’ position was made clear eight months ago, apparently Greensill only sought legal advice about its position” in the last week of February.

Cross psot from @spygirl Greensill going bust thread.

Canaries/Coal mines etc.

The credit deflation looms large and I wouldn't venture that far from @Lightscribe late Q3/Q4 BK call.There'll come a oint when the furloughs end because either inflation is running or the economy is collapsing.

Long story short:Greensill sets up factoring bank,finances lots of laons particualrly to Snajeev Gupta who's buying up steel works worldwide,insurers refuse to insure,investors pull finance,accounting irregularities discovered,bank goes pop.

 

 

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

That Jules fellow properly loves Phillip Morris International. Although what he stated about PMI, they’ve underperformed due to weak EM currencies would also apply to BAT. Should do well if EM currencies strengthen relative to GBP/USD.

CV.I'm intrigued on your take on their balance sheet if you have one..They are a cash cow in terms of cash flows but not often you see something like this.

[Don Coglione]

33 minutes ago, Fully Detached said:

FFS all I ever wanted was a house with a garden to grow some roses in. And now I have to sit here playing Warren bloody Buffet. Or Jimmy Buffet as is probably more the case.

Hey, it's five o'clock somewhere!

 

[sancho panza]

not sure the recent moves in UST's are finished but the parts of the equation are moving intoplace.

 

[MrXxxx]

An interesting article in the FT on ETF's and illiquidity [https://www.ft.com/content/44718dbb-abba-48aa-9499-f6bc15f412c0].

My interpretation of this is two-fold:

1. In 'times of trouble' ETF's do not offer you the diversification that you thought you were getting, and are only as strong as their weakest part.

2. Supports my opinion that ETF's/Passive investing as a strategy if effective when markets are stable, but when volatile active is a better approach [assuming that you can pick the right stocks and/or hold beyond the period of volatility]

Note, when first joining this board I was pro-passive...funny how opinions can change.

[JMD]

14 hours ago, leonardratso said:

well, i got round to watching uncle tel eventually, i usually just skip thru it, but theres real shite on TV so i thought id watch him for a change, im surprised he had a Q&A where the first Q was someone going on about inflation coming and he started going about input costs and price setting etc, well, made me wake up a bit since it all started to sound familiar, so anyway, i know its not this threads bag, but does touch on similar concepts;

anyways Q&A is anyones interested, start hence;

 

It's a good fund but if I were to invest I'd maybe split between this and its sister fund, called Smithson Inv. trust, which runs same strategy but selects small/mid caps.                                                                                              As per recent Brazil agriculture conversations, does anyone  know a good agriculture fund/etf weighted toward Brazil, or ideally a Brazil agri fund if such a thing exists?

[Castlevania]

34 minutes ago, JMD said:

                                                                                              As per recent Brazil agriculture conversations, does anyone  know a good agriculture fund/etf weighted toward Brazil, or ideally a Brazil agri fund if such a thing exists?

Brasil Agro 

http://www.brasil-agro.com/brasilagro2011/web/default_en.asp?idioma=1&conta=44

I own Cresud, which I’m not 100% convinced isn’t an elaborate Ponzi scheme. They own farms through Latin America. This is definitely high risk.

https://www.cresud.com.ar/index.php?lng=en

[JMD]

10 hours ago, Lightscribe said:

I know the consensus on here sticks to the roadmap without nailing down to a timeline (after all market stays irrational longer than you can keep solvent etc) and everything could change on a whim through CB policy on a sudden turn of action. 

I will however nail my colours to the mast and give my own estimate/guesstimate. May be a bit dystopian with artistic licence but it’s where I think we are heading.

2021 Q2 - Melt up. Whether that includes FAANGs (i.e David Hunter) is another matter. But certainly tech stocks embroiled in the whiplash of Covid semi-conductor backlog. i.e TSMC, Nvidia (ARM), Texas Instruments. That alongside with Oil, gas, energy, industrial metals and materials and rare earth. 

2021 Q3-Q4 - BK. No not Burger King, but the actual big kahuna burger with extra pickles (opposite to nothing burger). Everything crashes including gold/silver and BTC.

2022 Q1 - more QE. Post pandemic reality  hits (we know this is just the end of the cycle into the new). Jobs lost, inflation hits, post government support, under pressure for UBI. This is the true run in oil/energy/PMs (and IMO BTC). Food shortages in developing countries, costs spiralling.

2022 Q2-4 - CB start to raise interest rates. Government gold/silver/crypto regulation. Executive Order 6102.

2023. UBI implemented. Increased automation and AI in all jobs. Retail, office space left decimated in city centres turned into residential for large scale government/bank owned rental. (Lloyds recently stating becoming biggest BTL owner). Skilled migration and HK money into the cities. Physical cash phased out.

2024 - mortgage defaults as people come out of 2-3 year fixed deals onto standard rates. Government support in exchange for assets. 

2025 - 2030. From here is where things could change massively. Government take overs, majority stakes in land, transport and infrastructure. Digital currency takes over. Tax, UBI, transactions are all processed in real time and verified on the government blockchain. Sharon tries to claim extra credits in addition to UBI, computer says no. Trevor has location confirmed at that  address for 359 days out of 365, his food, living purchases all been tracked to that address. 

2030 - onwards 

This is the ‘you will own nothing’ stage. There may or may not be a major war over commodities at this point, alongside a currency reset. Global government and currency. I hope this doesn’t happen. 

 

Lightscribe, I jested in my earlier post, but i actually do agree with your analysis and narrative. I note you mention government takeover/ownership of sectors. I have a different take on this whereby government regulation and interference will begin soon, and ramp up over the decade. But the effect will be that companies, not just FarceBook and Amazon, will be forced to break up and many of these new companies and others will be snapped up by private equity. The private equity trend is already happening in my opinion. I mention this because ultimately it means risk of just the dross companies left for us to invest in, a real risk particularly if we are looking to pivot away from oil stocks later this decade. So maybe something to factor into the 'exit strategy'? 

[JMD]

17 hours ago, Bricormortis said:

 At a glance Wheaton PM and Franco Nevada have declined in price probably more than the PM  miner sector average.  I get that they are royalty streamers,Any thoughts on these ? Im looking for opportunities for a modest ladder in, currently holding Barrick Endeavour Kinross and mostly Harmony.

I still like the royalty companies but I bought in 2019 so not sure of current value compared to other pm's which I think is what your asking. I would add that before I buy, I like to see a '2nd benefit' for owning any stock. So for example I own Wheaton and Metalla Royalty (small streamer so risky) because they both offer the best silver miner leverage. Not advise of course because everyone has different views, but for me I personally favor having a larger silver weighting in my pm portfolio.

[Castlevania]

1 hour ago, sancho panza said:

Cross psot from @spygirl Greensill going bust thread.

Canaries/Coal mines etc.

The credit deflation looms large and I wouldn't venture that far from @Lightscribe late Q3/Q4 BK call.There'll come a oint when the furloughs end because either inflation is running or the economy is collapsing.

Long story short:Greensill sets up factoring bank,finances lots of laons particualrly to Snajeev Gupta who's buying up steel works worldwide,insurers refuse to insure,investors pull finance,accounting irregularities discovered,bank goes pop.

 

 

CV.I'm intrigued on your take on their balance sheet if you have one..They are a cash cow in terms of cash flows but not often you see something like this.

Shareholder deficit. Strange.

[JMD]

15 hours ago, CVG said:

I also worry about how to set the portfolio to autopilot in my twilight years (or for my wife after I kick the bucket). I would love for one of the major brokers to offer a balancing service whereby you set some parameters about X% in A and Y% in B and Z% in C and then they  automatically rebalance once a year or when certain thresholds are triggered. And then just have divs paid out to the bank account.

I agree and think we might get that type functionality soon, after all the US already has it... so now we are out of the EU, here's hoping...?

[JMD]

4 hours ago, Loki said:

@Lightscribe I was going to post last night something about the next cycle not being all sunshine and light despite it being a 'good' one, and wondering if it wasn't simply building control systems and getting the financial system ready for the end of that cycle. (5g for the CBDC, energy rationing via smart meter, etc)

 

Loki, yes it's interesting that many posts here warn about 'sovereign crypto is on its way...' and other foreboding posts, when for me these types are changes are already baked in. I see things playing out rather like Lightscribe describes. That is to say a slow power grab by government during this decade, so that when/if monetary collapse happens the world doesn't turn to total crap. I never bought into the world's end, apocalyptic zombie version. 

[DurhamBorn]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Brasil Agro 

http://www.brasil-agro.com/brasilagro2011/web/default_en.asp?idioma=1&conta=44

I own Cresud, which I’m not 100% convinced isn’t an elaborate Ponzi scheme. They own farms through Latin America. This is definitely high risk.

https://www.cresud.com.ar/index.php?lng=en

BrazilAgro are one iv opened a small position in with a few ladders set.Any direct Brazil investment is very risky,but i like their exposure to sugar cane as well.

Iv also bought 20 tins of Aldi corned beef this morning at 1.47p a tin from Brazil.I find theirs is very good quality,where Lidls,is too fatty.Large corned beef pies for £2 ,6 portions.

My time is split between roadmaps and learning new recipes.For the pizza brigade i fed 6 on Saturday night for less than a tenner.Best bases ever as well,knack is to let the dough arm on the processor need for at least 10 minutes,perfect dough

[JMD]

3 hours ago, Castlevania said:

Yeah. I need to sell some oil and buy gold miners.

Yes exactly that. My main sectors are pm's, energy, telecoms, commodities, industrials, and I plan to rebalance between these over next cycle.                                                                                                                                           I'm thinking my earlier post about the 'benefits of rebalancing' may have been misinterpreted by some, or probably I just wrote clumsily (so my bad). I didn't mean selling our lovely reflation stocks to go find new exciting sectors (which won't exist), I meant just trimming/selling high buying low, essentially moving capitol (and divis) between our already owned sectors to maintain % positions, and therefore also to derisk. I don't think this is hard - after all the difficult and complicated work was done when buying in and selecting what to buy.

[DoINeedOne]

On 07/03/2021 at 11:07, DurhamBorn said:

Lots of ADRs Harley,but i know you dont really like counterparty risk.I only want Brazil,as you say the other areas are the wild west.

I took a look at Degiro to see what exchanges they offered access too as i have used it to buy shares that HL etc... don't list

Unfortunately no south America unless you can access on some of the European exchanges

Here is the list, I know i normally bang on about Degiro but most of my investments are with HL i just use them for those that HL won't let me buy

 

On 07/03/2021 at 11:36, Loki said:

@Noallegiance Got my copy of The Psychological Edge, 40 pages in so far.  I've already read The Next Generation (1998) and recommend it.  Good to see TPE seems to get into the flows of money as this is something I still have no ability to understand beyond a very basic level

Yup my copy came too just started it last night so far i like it

4 hours ago, MrXxxx said:

Interesting, I (like others it appears) was thinking just the same thing this morning. I think the BK will be late Q4/early Q1 as impacts of further lockdowns, and reduced furlough funding hits job losses and filters through...initially some people will have a little `spending money` from statutory redundancy payments (forget voluntary severance, this wont happen), and then reality will `kick-in`...this is when we will see some civil disorder/city riots as people realize they have been Covid shafted.

I think when the economy opens up it be summer people will be out shopping, drinking, planning, BBQs, pub gardens then reality sets in ...

Was also thinking last week my ISA was nearly all oil so last Wednesday and in profit so i trimmed some and went into some miners, just need to start building more cash reserves although i kinda see my gold and silver holdings kinda as easy access cash 

Next months allocation to ISA allowance i will probably switch my telecom stocks over into the ISA as they are currently just in a normal shares account

 

But it will be a interesting few months i think

 

[Majorpain]

https://www.rolls-royce.com/media/our-stories/discover/2021/e-fuels-powering-climate-neutral-future.aspx?utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Social&utm_campaign=Power-Systems&utm_term=Organic&utm_content=Power-to-x

New stuff from RR about future fuels, I didn't know you could use Hydrogen as a base, add C02 and leccy, and make Methanol/Kero/Diesel.  

[sancho panza]

1 hour ago, Castlevania said:

Shareholder deficit. Strange.

psotion is likely worse given tehre's $6bn goodwill there.